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Tinto Maps #14 - 9th of August 2024 - Western Africa

Hello, and welcome one more week to Tinto Maps, the day of the week for map nerds lovers! This week we will be taking a look at Western Africa! These lands were named historically in different ways, although probably the most widespread naming was Guinea, which also names the Gulf that makes for the southern limit of the region, with the Atlantic Ocean being to the west, the Sahara desert to the north, and the lands around Lake Chad making for the approximate eastern border.

With these regions, we’re also leaving the ‘Easy Mode Map-Making’ of Project Caesar, as getting comprehensive sources of information for 1337 for most of Sub-Saharan Africa is challenging, as the traditional historical record was oral, in contrast with the written records usual in Eurasia. In any case, we did our best to depict the rich history and geography of the region and its diversity, which is stunning. Let’s start, then!

Countries:
Countries.png

The most important country, and one of the world's great powers, is the Empire of Mali, which in 1337 is at its zenit, still ruled by the infamous Mansa Mūsā. It controls not only the core lands of the Mandé-speaking peoples, but also holds the overlordship over Jolof, most of the fertile Niger river basin, and some of the most important Saharan outposts. To its south-east, the Mossi are organized in several polities (Ougadagou, Gwiriko, Yatenga, Boussouma, Tenkodogo, and Liptako). South into the coast, Kong, Dagbon, Bonoman, and Mankessim are polities ruled by the Dyula, the Dagbani, and the Akan (the last two). To the east, Fada N’gourma, Borgu, and Mamprugu connect with the lands of the Hausa, which rule from several city-states: Kebbi, Gobir, Zafara, Katsina, Daura, Kano, Rano, and Zazzau. Further to the east, the Empire of Kanem rules the lands around Lake Chad from its capital in Njimi, and over some of the Saharan corridors, making it the region's second wealthiest country. And finally, further to the south, there are the lands of the Nupe, the Yoruba (Oyo, Ife, Ijebu, Owo), the Edo (Benin), and the Igbo (Nri).

Dynasties:
Dynasties.png

The dynasties of the region are a mix of well-known ones, such as the Keita of Mali, the Ndiaye of Jolof, or the Sayfawa of Kanem, and randomly generated ones for the rest of the polities, as we don’t have good enough sources on who was ruling over most of them in 1337.

Locations:
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The locations of Western Africa. We’ve tried our best to find suitable locations, correct naming, etc., although I’m sure there might be plenty of feedback to apply.

Provinces:
Provinces.png


Areas:
Areas.png


Terrain:
Climate.png

Topography.png

Vegetation.png

This week we have proper Terrain mapmodes at the release of the Tinto Maps… Not much to say about them, though, as the climate and vegetation are pretty straightforward, being divided into Arid and Tropical; while the vegetation goes from desert and sparse beside the Sahara, to increasingly more forested terrain, until reaching the tropical jungles by the coast. The topography is not very fragmented, with the Guinean Highlands and the Adamawa Plateau being the most important landmarks.

Natural Harbors:
Harbors.png

A new map mode this week, coming from the latest Tinto Talks! There are some decent natural harbors in the region, with Banana Islands (where Freetown would be founded), Elmina, and Calabar being the best ones.

Cultures:
Cultures.png

A beautiful map this week… I may repeat that we tried our best to approach the region, taking into account that this was the first African region we completed, around 3 years ago. When we review it, we may add some more diversity, as we have now some more tools than the ones we had back in time, but we think that it’s way best to read your feedback first, to make sure we are on the same page.

Religions:
Religion.png

Take this map as very WIP. The Sunni-Animism division is kind of accurate, with the expected division for 1337 (Islam would later on advance more to the South, but we think this is the best for this date). What we have yet to do is to divide the ‘Animism’ population into some of the regional variants; we already have plenty of data, but we also want to read your feedback on this first.

Raw Materials:
Raw Materials.png

The goods of the region are quite diverse and very dependent on the geography. In the Saharan lands, there are plenty of locations with resources such as Salt, Copper, or Alum (regarding this resource, the lands to the north of Lake Chad make for the densest Alum hub in the world for 1337, something the historical sources talk about). Livestock is king in the Sahelian lands, while there are plenty of agricultural goods in the Niger river basin. The region is also full of luxury goods, of which Gold is the most relevant, as being the biggest supply of this metal to the Mediterranean and Europe in the Late Middle Ages, while also having others such as Ivory, Gems, or Spices (which in this region are portraying some goods such as kola nuts, or malagueta pepper). Finally, the coasts of the Gulf of Guinea have plenty of Fish. Maybe the only type of good that is not very abundant in the region is metals, as having some Iron, Tin, etc., but not much in comparison with other regions.

Markets:
Markets.png

Markets of the region, have an interesting distribution. The most important ones in 1337 are Niani, Kano, and Njimi, which are also connected to the Northern African markets, making it possible to get plenty of wealth by exporting well-demanded goods throughout the Sahara (for instance, exporting Gold or Alum for good money is a very viable strategy ATM). Later on, after the Age of Discovery, the coastal markets may get connected to other markets, making them more relevant, and maybe switching the power balance of the region from the North to the South, as historically happened (but take it as a ‘maybe’, not for granted, OFC!).

Population:
Population .png

Population 2.png

Population 3.png

Population 4.png

Population 5.png
Population of the region. We’ve improved a bit our tracking of the population data, to avoid further problems like the one we had with Germany. I can tell you that the total population of Western Africa is around 5.6M people, which is divided into 2.2M for the Sahel, and 3.3M for the coast of Guinea. You may very well notice that the hegemonic power here may be Mali, with around 700k people, but also that there are many more people not living under the rule of a polity, than living under it, which will make for interesting gameplay on how to deal with it (more about this in a later Tinto Talks, soon…).

And, speaking of that, I have the sad news that next Friday there is a bank holiday here in Spain, so there won’t be a Tinto Maps. The next one will be on Friday 23rd, and we will be taking a look at Eastern Africa! Until then, you may still stay tuned, as we will be replying to feedback, as usual, and we may have some informal maps incoming. Cheers!
 
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I just want to add my voice to the many people saying you are underestimating the population and civilisation of this region. Mali at it's pinnacle was larger than present day China and one of the most advanced societies on earth. It fell because it depended on trading gold and salt and when the trade started going south instead it stopped functioning but the idea that Mali was not a more impressive civilisaiton than any European one outside of the midditerranean Basin in 1337 is ludicous. You've given france ten times the population of Mali despite even modern day France being half the area of the empire of Mali. I'm not saying area amounts to population but a huge chunk of Mali's empire was a river basin civilisation.
Mali empire was not larger than present day China. The numbers I'm seeing is it was slightly less than double the size of France, and a bit more than 1/10 of present day China. Also as Pavel mentioned, size doesn't really translate to population, otherwise Spain would be 3rd in population, which was very much not the case in 1337.

While I do agree the numbers are off, they aren't off by more than a couple million for the area. Yes Mali had a big river basin society, but there is also a lot of land in between that is not exactly great land to sustain a huge population, and they didn't have the same kind of agricultural advancements that China/Europe were going through.
 
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I wanted to add to the voices disputing the lower estimate for West African population and in particular the population of the Mali Empire. The regular army of the Mali empire-including levies was said to be about 100,000. That would be 14% of the empire, which seems economically unsustainable during that time period.

Regarding warfare:

I wanted to ask if there will be a feature to simulate the usage of Earthen walls against cannon fire, the Great Walls of Benin were difficult to breach with cannon and gunfire due to their design and this helped protect many cities from gunpowder attacks.

Will different cultures find use of different types of units, like the Javelineers and the poison archers?

Will the game simulate slave armies, and prisoners of war? The overwhelming majority of "slaves" in during this period would have been prisoners of war, and they often made up large portions of the military, serving as commanders, receiving pay, but being seen as bound to the empires in a way.

Will extreme heat lead to attrition and combat issues similar to extreme cold? If so and also in regards to diseases can native populations avoid these penalties since they live in the areas and should be adapted. Also wanted to know to what extent camels will influence trans Saharan trade caravans/control and Saharan warfare.
 
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Many people ask for historicity and offer to fill the "empty spaces" with micro-kingdoms. This worries me. Firstly, maybe a couple hundred new states will not affect productivity, but with this approach there will be thousands of them, and this will most likely already give a significant load. Secondly, it will be impossible to play it with great interest, how often have you united the HRI militarily? I've done it 1 time during the whole game and I'll say that playing in other parts of the world is more fun because coalitions don't stop you there. In addition, I believe that the region as a whole should be worked out evenly. You can't just take and work out the Yorubaland separately. Do you know what the whole of West Africa will look like if we take your suggestions?

Initially, I made a map of many tribes rather for fun, primarily for myself. But now I have worked on the errors, climbed various historical forums, and significantly increased the historicity of my map from 48.75% to 80-85%. If you find any errors, please let me know about them. The historicity is not complete, because in the jungle in 1337, people had not yet managed to move to some provinces in sufficient numbers to form states, one of these is Kong-Wattara, it should not exist at all at the beginning of the game. He and other states will historically arise there much, much later. The pirate state did not exist on the islands either, Africans did not sail so far from the coast. The names highlighted in the frame do not always indicate direct dependence or direct control, sometimes it is just some kind of community. Also, it is not yet possible to find out a more precise division of the states and provinces dependent on Mali, perhaps some of the divisions will appear only in the future, and some may be missing.

So, I am proud to present to you the most developed map of pre-European West Africa today in the entire Internet!

Западная африка 1337.png


edit: I made new version map
View attachment Африка 1348.png
 
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I have talked to some people who have said that Kong actually did exist in 1337, it was only the Dyula dynasty that conquered the city and it expanded from a city-state into an empire. But it existed since the time of the Mali empire as a city state.
 
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I want to add some more suggestions, after doing more research on other regions. I've received a lot of my information from various journal articles and scholarly publications. I'll give a source list at the end of this post. I do want to note, some of these are older sources, but most are scholars who back up their information with contemporary sources, such as al-'Umari.

Still, a lot of information on the area pre-15th century is extremely sketchy and hard to work with. My area of study is sixteenth-century Spanish religious history, so apologies if I get anything wrong here.

------------------------

Regarding the regions around Kanem Bornu:

1. I would add either a Bilala state named "Fitri" (Lange, p. 268) or the Yao Sultanate. It was definitely founded within the next few decades, at least by 1360: "...the Bulala Wars began in earnest in the mid-fourteenth century. The Bulala were apparently a cadet branch of the Saifawa line..." (History of Africa 3, p. 291). This Bilala state should at least control Yao, Am Djemena, and Moito. They should have the Sayfawa dynasty.

2. Bokoro should be owned by a Bilala vassal named Kuka, which should own the location of Bokoro, to the south of Yao (Lange, p. 262:268). Kuka could also be made a new location carved out of Yao and Bokoro.

3. Additionally, I would make horses a major good in the area of Yao, Kanem, and Bornu, given that they were the ones to supply areas such as Air and other places. Particularly Yao is an important origin point for horses. The transition of the use of camels for horses is noted by H. J. Fisher (citing al-'Umari): "...the Mai of Bornu left behind in Air one of his own slaves, four clerics, and a thousand horses. This suggests the flow of horses from Bornu to Air, just as, perhaps, to Hausaland. In fact, so celebrated did Bornu become for horses that the central Sudanic equivalent of 'carrying coals to Newcastle' is 'to increase the number of horses in Bornu'" (History of Africa 3, p. 311).

Given this information, I suggest, at least, the locations of Yao, Goure, and Manan should have horses as their main trade good. Yao for their notably sturdy horses; Manan because it was a Zaghawa center, a notably nomadic population that spread the use of horses; and Goure (and possibly some other locations) to represent the Bornu supply of horses.

4. The location of Manan in Kanem should be predominantly Zaghawa, and Zaghawa population should be added across Kanem to constitute a significant portion of the population: "According to al-Muhallabi's information, one of the principal Zaghawan towns was Manan... Their chief lived in Manan, described as a town in Kanem... Ibn Sa'id, in the thirteenth century, said that Manan had been the capital of Kanem... Manan was still associated with the Zaghawa, now under Kanem and mostly Muslim" (History of Africa 3, p. 288).

5. While the Kingdom of Mandara as we generally know it was founded in the fifteenth century, oral histories record a Mandara Kingdom as early as the thirteenth. I suggest an animist Mandara Kingdom in the location of Mora and possibly a neighboring location. The king would possibly be King Agamakiya, albeit this claim is spurious (Forkl, p. 21-33).

6. Please increase the size of Lake Fitri. The lake was once MUCH larger than is portrayed on the current map. I wasn't even sure it was represented until I took a very close look.


--------------------------

Misc:

1. Add the Kingdom of Allada in the location of Porto Novo, also renaming that location to Allada (Aderinto, p. 7). It was founded well before the start date of the game and its population was 30,000 in about 1450. Apparently, the kingdom was larger prior to the sixteenth century and could encompass more locations.

2. Add the Sorko culture in the uncontrolled areas between Kebbi and Liptako. They were an important demographic in what would become the Songhai Empire: "Dendi region was a major source of support for Gao-Kukiya... a place of refuge for the surviving Askias. [Sunni] 'Ali's turn to Dendi also suggests Songhay benefitted from a possible movement of militarized Sorko into the area at that time. Adjacent to Kebbi, these Sorko may have included Hausa elements" (Gomez, p. 190).

3. Make Kukiya a vassal of the Mali Empire, controlling an area extending from Kukiya to the southeast: "...the ancient Songhay rulers of Gao-Ancient would be obliged to go down the Niger River far south. This new dynasty of provably Sanhaja origin, succumbing to the domination of Mali Empire in the Gao region during the mid-thirteenth and the fourteenth centuries, would retreat to Bentya [Kukiya?] where they constructed epitaphs between 1272 and 1489. From far south, the descendents... of the Songhay rulers were obliged to wait several centuries before they regained Gao with the assumption to the throne of Sonni Ali-Ber" (Takezawa & Cisse, p. 839).

(I will say that this last one seemed a bit speculative, especially with the Sanhaja part)



---------------------------
Sources:
1. The Cambridge History of Africa, Vol. 3, c. 1050-c. 1600. Various authors.
2. 'He Swalloweth the Ground with Fierceness and Rage': The Horse in the Central Sudan. I. Its Introduction. H. J. Fisher: https://www.jstor.org/stable/180584
3. Ethnogenesis from within the Chadic State. Some Thoughts on the History of Kanem-Borno. Dierk Lange: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40341665
4. African Kingdoms: An Encyclopedia of Empires and Civilizations. Saheed Aderinto.
5. African Dominion: A New History of Empire in Early and Medieval West Africa. Michael Gomez.
6. Discovery of the Earliest Royal Palace in Gao and its Implications for the History of West Africa. Shoichiro Takezawa & Mamadou Cisse: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41708210
7. Politik zwischen den Zeilen: arabische Handschriften der Wandalá in Nordkamerun. Hermann Forkl.
 
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@Pavía

Yorubaland

My suggestions for the city-states in Yorubaland in 1337.
The founder kingdom in Yorubaland is Ife, it probably existed since XII century at least, there comes a list of the early yoruba kingdoms formed after Ife, I limited my suggestions only to early kingdoms because these probably already existed around XIV century.
The yorubas in the time were already a people organized politically and engaged in state building. If 4 kingdoms are already present in the map: Ife, Oyo, Owu and Ijebu, I see no reason to not represent other kingdoms to make the area more rich and the gameplay more diversified, while remaining historically correct.

Book sources:
- A History of the Yoruba People; chapters 5-7; author Stephen Adebanji Akintoye, publication date 2010 (this book is legally availabe in Internet Archive)
- The Cambridge History of Africa vol 3 (From c.1050 to c.1600)
- A Enxada e a Lança: A África antes dos portugueses vol 2 (this book is unfortunetly available only in portuguese, I dont know if someone in the team speaks portuguese, but I hope so because almost all sources for the future Tinto Talks about pre-columbian Brazil will be in portuguese).

The first source was the most used for this suggestion, I recommend this book for more details about yoruba form of government and more details about the process of kingdom formation made by the yorubas.

In the map this would be something like:


1723525471416.png



1- Ife: Already present in the map, probably the more important kingdom at game start, Ife is the name of the kingdom, I suggest to change the name of location to Ilê-Ifé the name of the capital city).
2 - Ilesa: East of Ife, Ilesa is a location already exist in the map.
3 - Owu: West of Ife, this kingdom should be located in the Iwo location, I suggest to change the name of this location from Iwo to Owu-Ipole, the name of the Owu capital, Owu and Owo have a similar name but are different kingdoms.
4 - Ijebu: Southwest of Ife, already in the map.
5 - Owo: Southeast of Ife, already in the map, Owo and Owu have similar names but are different kingdoms.
6 - Ketu: Ketu location is in the map.
7 - Sabe: Capital is a location named Savé in the map.
8 - Ondo: Capital is in the Ondo location, Ondo location could be renamed to Ode-Ondo, the name of the capital.
9 - Ila: Capital is a location named Oke-Ila.
10 - Ekiti kingdoms: There were at least 16 kingdoms but the main and biggest kingdom probably was Akure, Akure is a location already present in the map.
11- Oyo: Already present in the map.

In 1337 Oyo is not yet the dominant kingdom in yorubaland, Ife was the most important, I would suggest to give 2-3 locations of Oyo to Ife, to better reflect this reality.
 
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From the areas I am knowledgeable about, I can't say I agree with them. The Kingdom of Dahomey did not exist as a political entity in 1337, its southern region was owned by the Kingdom of Ardra and the actual area around the capital Abomey was likely decentralised tribal communities. Most of the Yorubaland entities are incorrect- Ibarapa was a product of Oyo expansion, not a people at this time, a lot of the other locations/countries don't reflect the actual ones at this time and some important ones are missing like the Etiki, the kingdoms that were left behind by the Oba civilisation.
 
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I just want to add my voice to the many people saying you are underestimating the population and civilisation of this region. Mali at it's pinnacle was larger than present day China and one of the most advanced societies on earth. It fell because it depended on trading gold and salt and when the trade started going south instead it stopped functioning but the idea that Mali was not a more impressive civilisaiton than any European one outside of the midditerranean Basin in 1337 is ludicous. You've given france ten times the population of Mali despite even modern day France being half the area of the empire of Mali. I'm not saying area amounts to population but a huge chunk of Mali's empire was a river basin civilisation.
That's what we discussed. There are three academic sources (1, 2, 3) which claim that the population size was between 40 and 50 million people, which is, as you said, about 3 times the size of France at that time. But first, land size alone is not a good measure of population size, you would have to scrutinize population density which is usually estimated by houses and household sizes, census, registers, and so forth. I am not an archaeologist and don't know much about the specific situation in the Sahel, but I assume that since the outbreak of the Mali War in 2012, it has been extremely challenging if not impossible to continue archaeological works in Mali. The situation has been very unstable in Burkina-Faso, too.

Second, for this reason, we currently rely on very old estimates which date from 1984. These seem very exaggerated, and they mostly relied on Arab merchant travelers and oral sources which tend to inflate numbers quite a bit. I remember similar issues from the Chinese context, too, but there at least we can rely on a census.

Third, what we can do though, without having to arbitrarily guesstimate those numbers, is to compare with other academic sources that estimate the global population and other regions. In Project Caesar, the total population will be around 420 million of which 300 million will be in China, India and Europe (probably a bit less). One source (Maddison) puts figures for 1500 CE in sub-Saharan Africa at 43 million. Considering the population growth in the 14th and 15th century, the Paradox Tinto team arrived at numbers which are much lower than the more popular figures of 40-50 million people.

I was looking for a very long time for numbers, but couldn't find any with a more contemporary methodology. This study, e.g., based on a systematic review of regional population estimates and land use per grid cell, puts the numbers for the Americas at 60 million, which is slightly higher than what Osterhammel has suggested (50 million).

If you can find similar studies with similar or better methodologies for the Mali Empire, please post them here, but again, I couldn't find anything other than those very popular, but probably highly exaggerated numbers.
 
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That's what we discussed. There are three academic sources (1, 2, 3) which claim that the population size was between 40 and 50 million people, which is, as you said, about 3 times the size of France at that time. But first, land size alone is not a good measure of population size, you would have to scrutinize population density which is usually estimated by houses and household sizes, census, registers, and so forth. I am not an archaeologist and don't know much about the specific situation in the Sahel, but I assume that since the outbreak of the Mali War in 2012, it has been extremely challenging if not impossible to continue archaeological works in Mali. The situation has been very unstable in Burkina-Faso, too.

Second, for this reason, we currently rely on very old estimates which date from 1984. These seem very exaggerated, and they mostly relied on Arab merchant travelers and oral sources which tend to inflate numbers quite a bit. I remember similar issues from the Chinese context, too, but there at least we can rely on a census.

Third, what we can do though, without having to arbitrarily guesstimate those numbers, is to compare with other academic sources that estimate the global population and other regions. In Project Caesar, the total population will be around 420 million of which 300 million will be in China, India and Europe (probably a bit less). One source (Maddison) puts figures for 1500 CE in sub-Saharan Africa at 43 million. Considering the population growth in the 14th and 15th century, the Paradox Tinto team arrived at numbers which are much lower than the more popular figures of 40-50 million people.

I was looking for a very long time for numbers, but couldn't find any with a more contemporary methodology. This study, e.g., based on a systematic review of regional population estimates and land use per grid cell, puts the numbers for the Americas at 60 million, which is slightly higher than what Osterhammel has suggested (50 million).

If you can find similar studies with similar or better methodologies for the Mali Empire, please post them here, but again, I couldn't find anything other than those very popular, but probably highly exaggerated numbers.
I don't think we can discount the accounts which list the populations as higher. What arguments do we really have to guess that they're lower? That they would be larger later? But I think western scholars have really underestimated the impact of the slave wars on the region. Not only the people taken as slaves but all those killed in the wars that were waged to collect slaves.

Mali empire was not larger than present day China. The numbers I'm seeing is it was slightly less than double the size of France, and a bit more than 1/10 of present day China. Also as Pavel mentioned, size doesn't really translate to population, otherwise Spain would be 3rd in population, which was very much not the case in 1337.

While I do agree the numbers are off, they aren't off by more than a couple million for the area. Yes Mali had a big river basin society, but there is also a lot of land in between that is not exactly great land to sustain a huge population, and they didn't have the same kind of agricultural advancements that China/Europe were going through.
Oh yeah sorry I got an exponent wrong. I somehow got the 9 million km2 of modern day china as 900.000km2.
 
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First of all thank you for saying that you will be splitting animism up as there were many non-animist or Islamic religions in the region. Please add the Yoruba religion to the game as it has been around since around 300 - 500 BCE. I think Nigeria had more than one copper deposit, maybe in the state of Awaka? Could be wrong then. I do know that there was plenty of copper and the region had some pretty advanced metallurgy before Europeans showed up though.
 
These population figures are quite low. Most scholars believe that West and Central Africa were densely populated at this time. I believe Madison estimated total African population being ~40M in 1500, and Manning estimates that West Africa has been roughly 1/3rd of the total population of Africa in this era.

Also will Tsetse and Malaria be represented at all? African polities don't really make sense without thoss.
 
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I don't think we can discount the accounts which list the populations as higher. What arguments do we really have to guess that they're lower? That they would be larger later? But I think western scholars have really underestimated the impact of the slave wars on the region. Not only the people taken as slaves but all those killed in the wars that were waged to collect slaves.


Oh yeah sorry I got an exponent wrong. I somehow got the 9 million km2 of modern day china as 900.000km2.
I think the estimates range from 15 million up to 25 million enslaved Africans. The problem with the 50 million in the Mali Empire is that it's based on the assumption that it was at a minimum 200 million on the African continent (p. 684), which is extremely high (China and India combined).
These population figures are quite low. Most scholars believe that West and Central Africa were densely populated at this time. I believe Madison estimated total African population being ~40M in 1500, and Manning estimates that West Africa has been roughly 1/3rd of the total population of Africa in this era.

Also will Tsetse and Malaria be represented at all? African polities don't really make sense without thoss.
Yeah, Maddison calculated 43 million in 1500 CE (I linked to Maddison in my previous post on pop numbers). Can you please provide the source with Mannings claim? Is it Akyeampong et al (2014) Africa's Development in Historical Perspective? I found that Manning's estimate was at the higher ends for 1500 CE, that is 100 million on the entire African continent. That's pretty high for a total world population of 430 million. Now, you might argue that those estimates for the world are too low because they are not informed by the higher estimates for Africa. But I couldn't find any sources that discusses their methodology; these are just numbers, without any clear reference whatsoever. The only more systematic account is by Maddison, and unless we want to be speculative, you are rather on the safe side using a lower or moderate number. Besides, it would be good to have Manning flanked by another source as Manning seems to be at the much higher end.
 
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I think the estimates range from 15 million up to 25 million enslaved Africans. The problem with the 50 million in the Mali Empire is that it's based on the assumption that it was at a minimum 200 million on the African continent (p. 684), which is extremely high (China and India combined).

Yeah, Maddison calculated 43 million in 1500 CE (I linked to Maddison in my previous post with pop numbers). Can you please provide the source with Mannings claim? Is it Akyeampong et al (2014) Africa's Development in Historical Perspective? I found that Manning's estimate was at the higher ends for 1500 CE, that is 100 million on the entire African continent. That's pretty high for a total world population of 430 million. Now, you might argue that those estimates for the world are too low because they are not informed by the higher estimates for Africa. But I couldn't find any sources that discusses their methodology; these are just numbers, without any clear reference whatsoever. The only more systematic account is by Maddison, and unless we want to be speculative, you are rather on the safe side using a lower or moderate number. Besides, it would be good to have Manning flanked by another source as Manning seems to be at the much higher end.
African population 1650-1900 estimates by region.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...-captive/00000190-89a2-d776-a3b1-fdbe45520000
 
The entirety of Africa in 1700 CE is 61 million, but Manning is using the table of Maddison (2006, p. 636) according to which Africa had a population of 61 million in 1700 CE and 46,610 million in 1500 CE. Notably, Maddison does not differentiate between sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa, but May & Goldstone (2022) do, which is odd, because they rely on Maddison's figures. However, I believe May & Goldstone got something wrong, because they indicate 43 million for sub-Saharan Africa and 47 for Africa, which means that in entire Egypt and other parts along the Mediterranean, there would have been 4 million only which is oddly low.

The argument that Pavía is making, which is consistent with research on the Mali Empire, is that the Niger Bend experienced a period of population growth from 1300 CE until 1500 CE, which is why it makes sense to assume lower numbers in 1300 CE to arrive at around 46 million for the entire African continent in 1500 CE. That would be in line with Maddison.

Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of higher numbers for sub-Saharan Africa, but I couldn't mobilize the sources for that.

*edit* I'm just reading Manning, he is doing a more systematic of revision here, but I can't find any pop numbers in this paper. In
  • Manning, P. (2014). African population, 1650–2000: Comparisons and implications of new estimates. In E. Akyeampong, R. H. Bates, N. Nunn, & J. Robinson (Eds.), Africa’s Development in Historical Perspective (1st ed., pp. 131–150). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139644594.006
the table on page 132 indicates the following population numbers for Africa in 1700 CE (in million): 50 (West); 22 (South); 10 (Southern); 20 (East); 19 (Northeast); 17 (Northern); 138 (total). Manning is trained in economy and history, so I think his chapter is definitely worth a read. Yet there are two things to keep in mind: first, Manning's argument is somewhat controversial (see here), and second, it is very difficult to project numbers backwards from 1700 CE to 1300 CE. So not sure how this helps.
 
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How will you handle the Isthmo-Colombian region? In EU4 the Muisca were portrayed horribly as one unified state, all Chibchan indigenous groups were made 'Muisca', the Miskito were part of Chibchan, 'Chibchan' exists in the first place (It's somewhat like putting all europeans, iranians and northern indians in one culture group called 'indo-european'.) and for some strange reason the Muisca are the Quechua religion. The latter doesn't make a lot of sense either; Ruler namelists for the animist religion have Muisca deities and figures but the Muisca weren't animist, in EU4 they are a religion of a people not even related to them in the slightest. Will these issues be fixed in the new game?
 
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Really, I can't even see gameplay being viable with just some 1M people in the area. It's just too puny. Can we get a PDX game launch without Africa being horribly, ahistorically crippled?
 
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Really, I can't even see gameplay being viable with just some 1M people in the area. It's just too puny. Can we get a PDX game launch without Africa being horribly, ahistorically crippled?
There are basically just two sources for African pop: Biraben and Maddison, the former being decades old. If you would like to have higher numbers, post some reliable sources with newer figures.
 
There are basically just two sources for African pop: Biraben and Maddison, the former being decades old. If you would like to have higher numbers, post some reliable sources with newer figures.
What do you think of these?