Werewolf LXVIII: RAAAAAAID!!!

[Jensthemens]

Day and Night 13
XenomorphII the werewolf was lynched

jonti-h the Guardian Angel was hunted

 

[johho888]

OK, so Xeno wasn't bluffing. This means either there were 4 starting wolves per pack (nah, too many - it must be mustn't it?) or one or more of the no-kill nights was people getting turned (more likely). But how does it add up? If there is only one pack left then 2 cultists and even one wolf would make parity already? Must be two packs still left with 1 turned wolf and 1 cultist in each then. That would mean only two goodies left. Or only one? No, I'm counting on you being there for me, doc.

We need some incredible luck if this is going to work out: We need to lynch both cultists tomorrow. Then one wolf has to eat the other wolf and then we lynch the last wolf. Or tomorrow we lynch one cultist, one wolf eat the last cultist then the next day we lynch both wolves in a tie. Argh, this is ridicolous!

Please tell me what I'm doing wrong!
It can't be this bad!
Can it?

@GM, would you say in the update/First page if a dead werewolf had been turned?

 

[unmerged(67185)]

OK, so Xeno wasn't bluffing. This means either there were 4 starting wolves per pack (nah, too many - it must be mustn't it?) or one or more of the no-kill nights was people getting turned (more likely). But how does it add up? If there is only one pack left then 2 cultists and even one wolf would make parity already? Must be two packs still left with 1 turned wolf and 1 cultist in each then. That would mean only two goodies left. Or only one? No, I'm counting on you being there for me, doc.

We need some incredible luck if this is going to work out: We need to lynch both cultists tomorrow. Then one wolf has to eat the other wolf and then we lynch the last wolf. Or tomorrow we lynch one cultist, one wolf eat the last cultist then the next day we lynch both wolves in a tie. Argh, this is ridicolous!

Please tell me what I'm doing wrong!
It can't be this bad!
Can it?

@GM, would you say in the update/First page if a dead werewolf had been turned?

Please tell me this is surley a joke

and why are you alive if you bring down wolf after wolf?

How do I know that you are not in the pack opposing Xeno?

 

[johho888]

Please tell me this is surley a joke

I hope I'm making some logical error here but I just can't see where.

 

[Lord_D]

Why not 1 turned wolf and 2 cultists, with the 2nd cultist not in contact? I see no reason to exclude this scenario. Of course in this scenario the last wolf could just cry out to the 2nd cultist that he's the wolf and that they should lynch one of the last surviving goodies, but with this game's activity somehow that strategy could be quite hurtful as well

 

[johho888]

and why are you alive if you bring down wolf after wolf?

I think I only helped decide in the Xeno/Justian discussion before that my voting record is about as bad as yours.
I think Xeno's pack might have left me alone because I was in PM contact with Xeno (and I have to admit I really thought he was a goodie)

OTOH they only hunted the outed GA after like 10 days so who knows how the packs think when they pick hunt victims?

How do I know that you are not in the pack opposing Xeno?

Well, you don't but if my math adds up there is a 4/5 chance that you are a baddie from my point of view...

Lord_D made a public post day 3-4 somewhere that really screamed goodie and up until yesterday he was up there with jonti as the ones I trusted the most.
THE_SPLIT also behaved like a disappointed goodie when vLN died.
Of course there has been no-kills after that which might have changed things.
And you made some really goodie sounding posts just yesterday.
Since that was most recently maybe you are the other goodie?

 

[johho888]

Why not 1 turned wolf and 2 cultists, with the 2nd cultist not in contact? I see no reason to exclude this scenario. Of course in this scenario the last wolf could just cry out to the 2nd cultist that he's the wolf and that they should lynch one of the last surviving goodies, but with this game's activity somehow that strategy could be quite hurtful as well

Well, I mentioned I discussed cultists in parity count with the GM in a couple of PM a few days ago. I did mention then that some GMs only counted "cultists in contact" for parity. The rules aren't really clear on this so I guess he might have opted for that.

The rules allows for me to publish GM PMs and since this was only about the rules I think it wouldn't hurt but I'll give the GM a chance of vetoing it.

Your scenario would make for a less grim future so I can believe in that.

@GM: Do I have your blessing in posting our PM conversation about cultist parity?
@GM: Would you like to tell us if cultists have to be in contact to count for parity?

 

[THE_SPLIT]

Hi Guys.
I am really sorry if the village losses because of me, but I simple do not have any time to play, a lot of work and personal stuff. I am a blessed villager, and I might have been the one that was hunted one of those no kill nights. You have full right to lynch me I have added no value to this game, otherwise I will try to vote tomorrow.

 

[johho888]

color code is sorcerer types, blood drinker pack, gut ripper pack, goodies

Day 1(to receive a special trait):
AVN - EUROO7, Hax, johho888, Rysz/the_hdk, AVN, Jester180, Jingles, okyriosky, Justinian_A
okyriosky - THE_SPLIT, hdk
Nautilu - Nautilu, von Loch Ness
Lord_D - Kriszo, Lord_D
johho888 - Lord Strange/muttoneer
PhilleP - PhilleP
Rysz/the_hdk - theFreeman
Slinky - Ahura Mazda
Ahura Mazda - Slinky
OrangeYoshi - OrangeYoshi

Day 2:
sbr - Jingles, Nautilu, the_hdk, hebelecan, okyriosy
Teep - Hax, Lord_D, Slinky, EUROO7, von Loch Ness
Slinky - THE_SPLIT, Jester, jonti-h
THE_SPLIT - Lord Strange/muttoneer, johho888
Lord Strange/muttoneer - Teep, Kriszo
von Loch Ness - Avernite
PhilleP - theFreeman
Jingles - Ahura Mazda
Ahura Mazda - AVN
Lord_D - J. Passepartout
johho888 - Morpheus506
Rysz/the_hdk - sbr

Day 3:
okyriosy - Jingles, XenomorphII, Lord_D, Avernite, Lord Strange/muttoneer, Jester180, Hax, Kriszo, PhilleP, theFreeman, okyriosy, Nautilu, Morpheus506
hebelecan - von Loch Ness, Justinian_A, AVN, Rysz/the_hdk, the_hdk, johho888, jonti-h, Ahura Mazda, Slinky, J. Passepartout, THE_SPLIT,
Nautilu - hebelecan

Day 4
hebelecan - Everyone but Slinky
the_hdk - Slinky

Day 5
Jester180 - Slinky, AVN, Kriszo, johho888
PhilleP - Lord_D, Jingles
Nautilu - theFreeman, Ahura Mazda
Hax - Rysz/the_hdk, PhilleP
jonti-h - Avernite, the_hdk
the_hdk - Morpheus506, J. Passepartout
Lord_D - Hax,
Jingles - Jester180

Day 6:
Before GA Announcement:
jonti-h - XenomorphII, Justinian_A, J. Passepartout, Avernite, the_hdk
Jingles - Slinky, Morpheus506, johho888, Kriszo
Nautilu- AVN, Jingles
XenomorphII- jonti-h
Ahura Mazda- Hax
Hax- Ahura Mazda

Final count:
Jingles - Slinky, Morpheus506, johho888, Kriszo, jonti-h, XenomorphII, J. Passepartout, the_hdk
jonti-h - Justinian_A, Avernite
Nautilu - AVN, Jingles
Ahura Mazda - Hax
Hax - Ahura Mazda

Day 7
Hax - the_hdk, J. Passepartout, theFreeman, PhilleP, johho888
the_hdk - Kriszo, Rysz/the_hdk, Avernite, XenomorphII
theFreeman - AVN, Justinian_A, Hax, Lord Strange/muttoneer
no vote - 5 - jonti-h, Ahura Mazda, Lord_D, THE_SPLIT, Nautilu

Day 8
Nautilu - Lord_D, johho888, the_hdk, AVN, Avernite
the_hdk - Kriszo, Justinian_A, Lord Strange/muttoneer, jonti-h, XenomorphII
XenomorphII - J. Passepartout
Lord_D- Rysz/the_hdk
no vote - theFreeman, PhilleP, Ahura Mazda, THE_SPLIT, Nautilu

Day 9
vote count at time of "sorcerer" outing-
PhilleP - johho888, Kriszo, theFreeman, XenomorphII
XenomorphII - AVN, Justinian_A, jonti-h
Avernite - Lord Strange/muttoneer
Kriszo - the_hdk
Lord Strange/muttoneer - Lord_D
no vote - PhilleP, THE_SPLIT, Avernite, J. Passepartout

Final Count:
J. Passepartout - Avernite, AVN, XenomorphII, johho888, THE_SPLIT
PhilleP - Kriszo, theFreeman, PhilleP
XenomorphII - Justinian_A, jonti-h
Avernite - Lord Strange/muttoneer, J.Passepartout
Kriszo - Rysz/the_hdk
muttoneer - Lord_D

Day 10
AVN - 5 - Lord Strange/muttoneer, Rysz/the_hdk, Kriszo, XenomorphII, johho888
the_hdk - 3 - Lord_D, AVN, PhilleP
XenomorphII - 1 - Justinian_A
PhilleP - 1 - theFreeman
no vote - 2 - THE_SPLIT, jonti-h

Day 11
PhilleP - 5 - THE_SPLIT, theFreeman, Justinian_A, Rysz/the_hdk, XenomorphII
THE_SPLIT - 3 - Lord_D, jonti-h, PhilleP
Justinian_A - 1 - johho888
Rysz/the_hdk - 1 - Kriszo
no vote - 0 -

Day 12
XenomorphII - 7 - Justinian_A, johho888, jonti-h, THE_SPLIT, theFreeman, XenomorphII, Lord_D
no vote - 1 - Rysz/the_hdk

Day 13
XenomorphII - 6 - Lord_D, Rysz/the_hdk, johho888, THE_SPLIT, theFreeman, jonti-h
Lord_D - 1 - XenomorphII

 

[johho888]

Hi Guys.
I am really sorry if the village losses because of me, but I simple do not have any time to play, a lot of work and personal stuff. I am a blessed villager, and I might have been the one that was hunted one of those no kill nights. You have full right to lynch me I have added no value to this game, otherwise I will try to vote tomorrow.

Please don't give up on us now! There are just 6 of us left now and the game will likely end tomorrow or at the very latest the day after that. It will really be hard to find a sub now that has the time to get into the game (unless maybe muttoneer or PhilleP can be persuaded? they died fairly recently and should be up to date and probably not have any inside info) and whatever side you are on will suffer if you just go away.

 

[Jensthemens]

@GM: Do I have your blessing in posting our PM conversation about cultist parity?
@GM: Would you like to tell us if cultists have to be in contact to count for parity?

The cultists has to be in contact to make parity.
And yes you can post it if you have to

 

[THE_SPLIT]

Please don't give up on us now! There are just 6 of us left now and the game will likely end tomorrow or at the very latest the day after that. It will really be hard to find a sub now that has the time to get into the game (unless maybe muttoneer or PhilleP can be persuaded? they died fairly recently and should be up to date and probably not have any inside info) and whatever side you are on will suffer if you just go away.

I will play on!

 

[the_hdk]

Please don't give up on us now! There are just 6 of us left now and the game will likely end tomorrow or at the very latest the day after that. It will really be hard to find a sub now that has the time to get into the game (unless maybe muttoneer or PhilleP can be persuaded? they died fairly recently and should be up to date and probably not have any inside info) and whatever side you are on will suffer if you just go away.

correction 5....there are 5 people left

 

[EUROO7]

Can I sub?

The GM should know that XXX is XXX therefore XXX XXX XXX. Yes?

 

[Thistletooth]

Can I sub?

The GM should know that XXX is XXX therefore XXX XXX XXX. Yes?

Keep your filthy mind outta this thread!

 

[EUROO7]

Keep your filthy mind outta this thread!

Thistle is XXX only if XXX in XXX.

 

[Thistletooth]

Thistle is XXX

In no way, shape, or form what-so-ever. Keep your twisted fantasies to yourself.

 

[johho888]

correction 5....there are 5 people left

But then there can't be two packs with 1 wolf + 1 cultist either!? Unless I am the doc which I'm not.

Must be Lord_D's setup then with 1 wolf + 1 cultist-in-contact and 1 not-in-contact.

Or are there no cultists left? But why then the question from the GM on cultist parity???

My top suspect used to be the_hdk but with Lord_D saving Xeno I think I must rethink and

vote Lord_D

 

[OrangeYoshi]

Holy johho posts, Batman!

 

[Lord_D]

Or are there no cultists left? But why then the question from the GM on cultist parity???

All the time I have assumed there were 2 cultists a pack. But if it were 1 a pack I'd be really shocked

Thanks for voting me I guess. I'll have a look at the voting history based on the assumption Xeno turned someone (preferably not 2 nights ago but earlier).

EDIT: If there has been a turn I think it could've happened on night 4 by the blood drinkers. On the quiet nights 5 and 7 the Gut Rippers hunted, and because Ahura Mazda (the last original wolf of the GR) didn't vote on day 7 I've been wishful thinking all the time there were no turns on these nights but in reality there could've been

Then there's night 12, a blood drinkers night, but considering there were 8 ppl left (of which one or 2 wolves and one cultist of the same pack probably) and the GA still around, there's a fair chance of this being a save.

This all assuming a 3 wolf original pack setup.

tI'm starting to believe more and more that there's no doctor in this game, we've seen NO signs of his presence in 13 nights, which would be quite some bad luck for him.