Aberration colonisation analysis

[unmerged(8881)]

So we know the colonisation in current Aberration is way out of whack. I've
made a list of the explorers and conquistadors of the major powers from
Aberration as it stands now (see below). I may have missed a couple or not flagged some as event dependant. There are a few interesting
features:

Explorers
* Apart from the first the early explorers all have very long lifespans,
10-23 years for everyone between 1435-1501.
* Sicily and Brittany get a movement 6 explorer with a lifespan of over 20
years before 1550.
* The avg lifespans of some country's explorers before 1600 differ wildly
from others, e.g. Brittany 5 explorers @ 17.2 years each vs. Genoa 4
explorers @ 4.75 years each. (We know Brittany is overpowered, just trying
to show the evidence that these countries have been created by different
individuals with differing ideas of 'balanced'.

Conquistadors (in my mind this is the most abusive, these guys are
guaranteed to discover land if sent into it, opening up whole continents)
* Some nations have a short lag between their first explorer and their first
conquistador, e.g. 19 years for Hansa, whilst others have to wait longer,
e.g. 72 years for Genoa.
* Again the lifespan of many of the early conquistadors is far too long (Not
Brittany in this case, hooray!) Eire @ 26 years beginning from before anyone
else gets an explorer, other than the optional Granada one. This is how
america gets opened up to the Yukon!
* Discounting the eastern powers, there are still 6 countries that get
conquistadors before 1550. Is it 2 in vanilla?


All up I think we need to determine which countries are meant to be colonial
power-houses and which ones are meant to be more 'old world'. For example,
our favourite target, Brittany, is meant to have the option of one or the other, via events such as the infamous -5 land one, but
still gets their explorers and conquistadors no matter what event choices
are made, effectively allowing them to pursue both strategies.

Format:-
Appearance, Move, Country, Lifespan

Explorers

1426-1431, 3, Eire, 5
1435-1448, 2, Eire, 13
1462-1472, 4, Granada, 10 *** Needs to be woken via event
1465-1480, 3, Eire, 15
1483-1494, 4, Brittany, 11
1491-1514, 6, Sicily, 23
1496-1506, 4, Hansa, 10
1500-1512, 5, Eire, 12
1501-1519, 4, Brittany, 18
1502-1510, 6, Genoa, 8 # Columbus!
1519-1522, 6, Genoa, 3
1522-1527, 5, Savoy, 5
1529-1533, 6, Scotland, 4
1532-1557, 6, Brittany, 25
1532-1546, 6, Sicily, 14
1534-1537, 4, Genoa, 3
1538-1546, 5, Hansa, 8
1541-1549, 4, Granada, 8
1546-1562, 2, Hansa, 16
1555-1567, 5, Scotland, 12
1556-1565, 6, Scotland, 9
1563-1581, 4, Brittany, 18
1570-1591, 6, Burgundy, 21
1577-1591, 4, Brittany, 14
1580-1595, 5, Finland, 15
1582-1588, 4, Granada, 6
1582-1587, 3, Genoa, 5
1583-1611, 5, Bavaria, 28
1583-1599, 5, Caliphate,16
1590-1602, 4, Eire, 12
1592-1608, 4, Scotland, 16
1601-1621, 5, Bavaria, 20
1601-1617, 5, Bavaria, 16
1605-1627, 5, Sicily, 22
1608-1620, 4, Finland, 12
1610-1620, 3, Savoy, 10 *** Needs to be woken via event
1612-1645, 5, Savoy, 33 *** Needs to be woken via event
1612-1638, 5, Sicily, 26
1613-1624, 4, Scotland, 11
1616-1639, 5, Hansa, 23
1616-1624, 4, Genoa, 8
1620-1628, 5, Granada, 8
1623-1630, 4, Genoa, 7
1630-1688, 3, Savoy, 58 *** Needs to be woken via event
1633-1647, 4, Ukraine, 14
1638-1659, 5, Ukraine, 21
1639-1649, 6, Bavaria, 10
1643-1660, 4, Caliphate,17
1645-1655, 6, Granada, 10
1654-1671, 5, Genoa, 17
1680-1705, 5, Finland, 25
1702-1720, 4, Granada, 18
1704-1722, 4, Genoa, 18
1720-1746, 3, Savoy, 26 *** Needs to be woken via event
1720-1735, 3, Eire, 15
1721-1737, 4, Kalmar, 16
1723-1744, 4, Scotland, 21
1724-1758, 6, Brittany, 34
1728-1741, 5, Ukraine, 13
1750-1770, 3, Ukraine, 20

Conquistadors

1475-1501, 6, Eire, 26
1495-1505, 4, Ukraine, 10
1498-1510, 4, Granada, 12
1514-1529, 4, Sicily, 15
1514-1521, 6, Brittany, 7
1515-1531, 6, Hansa, 16
1518-1527, 3, Granada, 9
1526-1535, 4, G. Horde, 9
1530-1550, 6, Eire, 20
1540-1548, 3, G. Horde, 8
1542-1551, 6, Brittany, 9
1544-1551, 6, Scotland, 7
1550-1562, 4, G. Horde, 12
1555-1575, 4, Ukraine, 20
1563-1571, 6, Brittany, 8
1564-1589, 6, Sicily, 25
1564-1581, 6, Scotland, 17
1565-1585, 4, Byzantium,20
1565-1576, 4, Ukraine, 11
1565-1570, 2, Ukraine, 5
1567-1577, 4, Granada, 10
1575-1594, 5, Hansa, 19
1575-1583, 5, G. Horde, 8
1579-1585, 5, Ukraine, 6
1580-1605, 5, Ukraine, 25
1580-1588, 3, Genoa, 8
1584-1598, 5, G. Horde, 14
1584-1598, 5, Ukraine, 14
1598-1610, 4, Genoa, 12
1603-1635, 3, Savoy, 32 *** Needs to be woken via event
1603-1625, 3, Burgundy, 22
1604-1629, 6, Sicily, 25
1605-1620, 5, Byzantium,15
1608-1617, 4, Brittany, 9
1613-1629, 4, Bavaria, 16
1615-1635, 4, Finland, 20
1615-1631, 4, Savoy, 16
1615-1630, 5, Granada, 15
1618-1660, 4, Kalmar, 42
1619-1630, 5, G. Horde, 11
1619-1630, 5, Ukraine, 11
1625-1669, 3, Bavaria, 44
1625-1645, 5, Granada, 20
1630-1650, 6, Eire, 20
1631-1655, 3, Ukraine, 24
1633-1643, 3, Genoa, 10
1635-1672, 4, Bavaria, 37
1638-1678, 6, Scotland, 40
1638-1648, 4, G. Horde, 10
1638-1645, 4, Ukraine, 7
1642-1648, 4, Ukraine, 6
1646-1654, 4, G. Horde, 8
1648-1654, 4, Ukraine, 6
1650-1665, 6, Finland, 15
1652-1663, 4, G. Horde, 11
1665-1672, 3, G. Horde, 7
1665-1672, 3, Ukraine, 7
1667-1684, 5, Burgundy, 17
1672-1688, 2, Savoy, 16 *** Needs to be woken via event
1675-1690, 4, Genoa, 15
1690-1715, 5, G. Horde, 25
1696-1711, 4, Ukraine, 15
1700-1715, 5, Ukraine, 15
1701-1733, 3, Genoa, 32
1735-1745, 5, G. Horde, 10
1735-1745, 5, Ukraine, 10
1739-1760, 5, Kalmar, 21
1760-1780, 5, Byzantium,20
1765-1790, 5, G. Horde, 25
1765-1790, 5, Ukraine, 25

Here's a list of conquistadors and explorers ranking countries as to when
they get their first one:

Explorers:
Eire
Granada * (If event option take)
Brittany
Sicily
Hansa
Genoa
Savoy
Scotland
Granada
Burgundy
Finland
Bavaria
Caliphate
Ukraine
Kalmar

Conquistadors:
Eire
Ukraine
Granada
Sicily
Brittany
Hansa
Golden Horde
Scotland
Byzantium
Genoa
Savoy * (If event option take)
Burgundy
Bavaria
Finland
Savoy
Kalmar

 

[Incompetent]

Excellent analysis, nilith. We'll have to look at each country in turn, but overall we probably want human colonisation to go about half as fast as it does at the moment, if that.

I can comment on a couple of countries, though:

- With its current setup, Ukraine shouldn't get any conquistadors before 1580, as it has no sensible use for them. They also seem to have an excessive number of explorers late on, given that Ukraine is very land-oriented - perhaps there should be more conditions on these, like requiring Ukraine to have taken a more naval slant.

- On the other hand, the Teutonic Order will get some good pioneers, but only starting in the late 17th century, and only if they support the Greys.


Edit: I've had an idea for how we can simplify the colonial analysis: each country has a 'conquistador index' and an 'explorer index', which are given by the sum over all years and pioneers of x*y, where:

x = 1 if pioneer is active and 0 if not;
y = year-based factor, as follows:
- before 1501: 12
- 1501-1550: 6
- 1551-1600: 4
- 1601-1700: 2
- 1700 onwards: 1

Now when we work out these numbers for different countries, we'll get a vague idea of how strong they are colonially. In fact, we could instead decide how strongly colonial we want each power to be, and whether they're more likely to colonise islands or continents, and then try to get their indices to an appropriate level.

To give some examples from your data:

Eire has an EI of 533, and a CI of 466
Brittany has an EI of 538, and a CI of 144
Genoa has an EI of 186, and a CI of 142

 

[MattyG]

An interesting concept, Incompetant.

We would also need to set spending limitsin relation to time. Otherwise, if I was trying to devise my own little country, I'd spend all my points early, to get the jumpy wumpy woo on all my opponents and have a rich north american empire.

We might need to classify each country also by a starting date from which they can have explorers. Then again, this might be superfluous, as one of the things required to level this all out is that all the major colonisers (Eire, Genoa, Brittany, Kalmar, Scotland, Burgundy, Hansa, Granada/Cordoba, Sicily and Savoy) will all be making their major launch at roughly the same time. The exception being Eire getting in ten years or so early with one short-lived explorer to find Newfoundland.

It might be easier to set the Great Year of Sailing West, a spring 10-15 years after the Irish discover Atlantic Canada in which all of the above countries receive explorers to send out to explore the new world.

Then quiet again for five years, then the explorers become more sporadic and different for each country.

 

[unmerged(8881)]

Incompetent, really good idea on the indices, interesting to see Brittany has a higher EI than Eire, [/sarcasm on] I guess they need it with only Gaelic, French, and Anglo-Saxon culture in Europe[/sarcasm off]. Some finer granularity may be required, having a conquistador in the same period but before others is surely more valuable, e.g. having one for 7 years between 1514-1521 should be worth more than having one for nine years between 1526-1535. Of course conquistadors also become much more valuable if you've had a nice run of explorers prior to their arrival.

I'm amazed by the lifetime of some of the explorers and conquistadors particularly. Given the game's setup it doesn't take long for a conquistador to completely explore South America, just a few years. Shorter lifespans would slow down exploration but could lead to a situation where luck plays a greater role in using explorers to discover land.

I'd like to see a situation where explorers are given enough time to discover a searoute to a destination only, maybe find a couple provinces, and then later have a conquistador used to definitely and reliably discover territory, but not live long enough to open up a continent.

 

[MattyG]

I am a strong believer that conquistadors should be both short lived and arrive much later than 'historical'. This is to compensate for the game's inability to portray exploration with anything close to accuracy. They find too much land with too much certainty too quickly and without needing to return to Europe. And settlers are on their way the next day.