Ahistorical paths : Dying for the Suddeten

[Captain Frakas]

Hi,

I've started a Core 0.25 game with Romania (to start pro-allies, then become pro-axis and finish pro-komintern ), and the allies have choosen to take an hard stance versus the Reich after the Anschluss...

At the Munich conference, they protected Czechoslovakia, and enter at war with the Reich attempt an invasion.

War started in europe in september 1938...

That's fine, I really enjoy when game surprise me (with realistic ahistorics paths)...

But I find strange some elements of the war :

- USSR stay neutral... Shouln't it Help Czechoslovakia and the Allies at this steps ? IIRC, it's only after the Munich betrayal that Stalin lost it's confiance about the Allies.

- Poland stay neutral... Wasn't Poland interested at this steps to enter at war with the Reich versus Czechoslovakia ?

- Czechoslovakia doesn't join the Allies... and was Invaded in three months by Germany.

- Should the Allies always use the Phoney War strategy ??? I'm not sure... And with a possible USSR intervention, they should be more offensive I think.

-Netherlands join the allies when belgium stay neutral... I don't understand why the Netherland AI have accepted that... Netherlands was invaded in seven days. It was a suicide.

-Eight month after, Belgium and Luxembourg join allies and are both invaded in one month.

-Paris is taken aroud the 15 june 1939 and France collapse one month latter.

-Germany have invaded Czechoslovakia, Netherland, Belgium, Luxembourg, and France.


I find that Germany shouldn't be that powerfull in 1938 !

Does it work as intended ?
Even in a gameplay perspective, I think that if Germany lose early the war, it's really not a probleme as we create another great villain : Josef Staline and it's USSR.

March 1938
name = "12:00 March 13, 1938 : Germany had The Anschluss ."
name = "16:00 March 14, 1938 : France went with Ok in British Policy Statement Regarding Germany - Stop Germany."


September 1938
name = "12:00 September 7, 1938 : Germany had All Germans in the Reich ."

name = "0:00 September 13, 1938 : United Kingdom went with Hardline in The Sudetenland Crisis - Letter to the King."
name = "0:00 September 14, 1938 : United Kingdom had Berchtesgaden Meeting ."
name = "12:00 September 15, 1938 : Germany had Threatened with Invasion ."

name = "0:00 September 17, 1938 : United Kingdom went with Reject the demands in The Sudetenland Crisis - British Response."
name = "0:00 September 17, 1938 : United Kingdom went with Fold in The Sudetenland Crisis - Germany has Reaffirmed their Demand."
name = "0:00 September 18, 1938 : Germany went with Use the Polish claims in Poland wants Zaolzie."
name = "14:00 September 18, 1938 : Germany went with Use the Hungarian claims in Hungary wants southern Slovakia."

name = "13:00 September 23, 1938 : Czechoslovakia had Bad Godesberg failure ."
name = "13:00 September 24, 1938 : Italy had The Sudetenland Crisis - Calling a Conference ."
name = "12:00 September 25, 1938 : Germany went with Our mind is set on war in Italy suggests a conference to resolve the crisis."
name = "16:00 September 25, 1938 : Czechoslovakia had Mobilization ."

name = "12:00 September 26, 1938 : Germany declared war upon Czechoslovakia."
name = "16:00 September 27, 1938 : United Kingdom declared war upon Germany."
name = "16:00 September 30, 1938 : Netherlands entered a Military Alliance with United Kingdom, Iraq, France, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, South Africa, Nepal, Bhutan, Yemen, Oman, Newfoundland, "


October 1938
name = "12:00 October 1, 1938 : Germany had The Munich Conference has Failed ."

name = "0:00 October 7, 1938 : Netherlands went with We must flee! in Enemy at the gates."


November 1938
name = "0:00 November 3, 1938 : Germany annexed Czechoslovakia."


May 1939
name = "17:00 May 2, 1939 : Belgium entered a Military Alliance with United Kingdom, Iraq, France, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, South Africa, Nepal, Bhutan, Yemen, Oman, Newfoundland, India, Malay "
name = "States and Netherlands."
name = "17:00 May 2, 1939 : Luxemburg entered a Military Alliance with United Kingdom, Iraq, France, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, South Africa, Nepal, Bhutan, Yemen, Oman, Newfoundland, India, Malay "
name = "States, Netherlands and Belgium."

name = "17:00 May 8, 1939 : Germany annexed Luxemburg."


Juin 1939
name = "17:00 June 11, 1939 : Belgium had The Belgian Capitulation ."

Jully 1939
name = "17:00 July 20, 1939 : France went with We have no choice but to accept in The Vichy Regime."

 

[coreymas]

I dont think it really is a question of "is Germany that powerful in 1938" versus the allies being that weak in 1938.

I believe (and please correct me if i am wrong) that the allies are severely restricted in IC up until 1939. Perhaps that restriction does not get removed when the allies go to war with Germany early over the Czechs?

 

[Hagar]

I dont think it really is a question of "is Germany that powerful in 1938" versus the allies being that weak in 1938.

I believe (and please correct me if i am wrong) that the allies are severely restricted in IC up until 1939. Perhaps that restriction does not get removed when the allies go to war with Germany early over the Czechs?

They are restricted, which is changed by event the moment the game goes ahistorical, as it should be. But it would leave England and France horrendously ill-prepared for war, as both were trying to avert another world war until 1938-1939. Heck, the French and English were even ill-prepared for war in 1940. An early Czech war might change the position of the USSR against Germany, but here we enter the ranges of the unknown really. Would they take a tougher stance against Germany, or would they hedge their bets and opt for coexistence? The purges were still going on at the time, so would Russia be ready for war, and thus willing to opt for it, in 1938?

 

[Akaki]

German generals planned an attempt to "overthrown" Hitler during the Munich crisis. Is there such event?

 

[Hagar]

German generals planned an attempt to "overthrown" Hitler during the Munich crisis. Is there such event?

Not that I know of, though the 'The General Staff protests' are surely in. I don't know how valid an actual coup would have been in 1938 though. Should you have more details about a possible Mucich coup please PM them to Baylox - Munich is one of his brain childs.

 

[coreymas]

They are restricted, which is changed by event the moment the game goes ahistorical, as it should be. But it would leave England and France horrendously ill-prepared for war, as both were trying to avert another world war until 1938-1939. Heck, the French and English were even ill-prepared for war in 1940. An early Czech war might change the position of the USSR against Germany, but here we enter the ranges of the unknown really. Would they take a tougher stance against Germany, or would they hedge their bets and opt for coexistence? The purges were still going on at the time, so would Russia be ready for war, and thus willing to opt for it, in 1938?

That makes for an interesting sub event based upon the UK going to war over the Czechs. L

I would venture to say that the probabilities would be

70 Percent chance SU remains Neutral
20 Percent chance SU remains Neutral but gears up for an early war with Germany
10 Percent Chance SU begins to Pressure the Baltics for annexation (as the allies are busy in Czech) and gears up for early war with Germany/Allies

Maybe?

Corey

 

[Akaki]

Nope. If there would be a German-Czechoslovak war in 1938 Allies and Soviet Union should press on Poland to grant military acces to SU (to help Czechoslovakia of course). Poland at first should be against, and later eventually with Red Army in Poland Soviet Union would force Poland to became communist. Something similar to RL negotiations and those in '39.

 

[loki1232]

From what I understand about Russian and Czechoslavakia is that the USSR was willing to fight a war against German on the side of the Czechs (they had a treaty with france about this), but when Britaina nd France backed down Stalin had no choice but to as well.
Remember that this is Pre-Finland so no one knows how weak teh Red Army really is.

basically I say there should be a very high chance of the USSR joining in as well if the Munich Conference fails to stop the war.

 

[Drake]

I dont think it really is a question of "is Germany that powerful in 1938" versus the allies being that weak in 1938.

I believe (and please correct me if i am wrong) that the allies are severely restricted in IC up until 1939. Perhaps that restriction does not get removed when the allies go to war with Germany early over the Czechs?

That is just part of the problem - historically Germany was not as well prepared for war as the Allies in 38, critically short on ammo, and lacking enough tanks to make a difference.
IIRC over 20% of all German tanks were Czech in 39 - and Czech production throughout the war accounted for over 15%.
If Germany goes to war in 38, they should loose.


And that is without taking the USSR into account. It was very likely that Stalin would get involved in the war before long.

 

[MateDow]

Nope. If there would be a German-Czechoslovak war in 1938 Allies and Soviet Union should press on Poland to grant military acces to SU (to help Czechoslovakia of course). Poland at first should be against, and later eventually with Red Army in Poland Soviet Union would force Poland to became communist. Something similar to RL negotiations and those in '39.

From everything that I understand, there was no chance that Poland would voluntarily let Soviet forces into the country. There was too much animosity for that. Don't forget; they had just fought a war with each other less than 20 years before. Even with an active war against Germany, Poland was defending itself from the Soviet Union (rightly it turned out). I don't see anything which would convince the Poles to allow the Soviets into the country.

 

[HistoryMan]

Even if war actually broke out over the Sudetenland (as opposed to over Bohemia-Moravia), I suspect there is a very good chance of Britain/France deciding to remain neutral (The view that Germany was merely acting to regain her "rightful" territory was quite strong, especially in the public perception - hence Chamberlain's desire to "do a deal" at Munich). Poland might be quite keen to defend Czechoslovakia - or, alternatively, might be quite keen to grab some bits of it for itself . Either way, Poland is sure as heck not going to be interested in letting Soviet troops onto its' territory - and (assuming UK/France have backed down) neither is Stalin going to be interested in trying to attack Germany. In late 1938, the Purges are still rumbling on, so Stalin is somewhat pre-occupied in any case.

Tim

 

[unmerged(5165)]

German generals planned an attempt to "overthrown" Hitler during the Munich crisis. Is there such event?

Actually, according to Ian Kershaw and most other current historians, there is no real evidence for such a plan. A couple of generals did claim after the war that they planned to overthrow Hitler if the Allies would stand up for Czechoslovakia, but there seems to be no actual evidence to back this up. No massing of troops loyal to the generals (and not to Hitler, to whom they had sworn an oath of allegiance), not even a move to neuralgic points, such as Berlin, Kiel or any other center of civilian or military power by those who claimed to have planned such a coup d'etat, no independent witnesses, etc. And since Hitler was at his peak of popularity after the annexation of Austria, it does seem highly unlikely too, since the generals would have met the resistance of most germans, including the vast majority of enlisted men.