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You say "science", I say "throwing a hundred divisions at the wall and seeing which ones stick". :p
That’s still science - experimentation, repeatable results. :D Just like smashing your head hard enough against the same wall will eventually give you a headache! :eek:
 
Tanks (as opposite to anti-take technology) feel like a very expensive millstone for a country like Romania.
 
Tanks (as opposite to anti-take technology) feel like a very expensive millstone for a country like Romania.
They do seem quite expensive, and add a whole list of equipment and doctrines to the list. Maybe Romania would be better off concentrating on making it's Infantry Divisions as tough as possible, giving them Artillery and Anti-Tank guns, and maybe sprinkle in some CAS, just for fun.
 
If you're building a large air force, you want both: The interceptors to shoot down any and all enemy planes coming your way, and the MR-Fighters to escort bombers and for use over longer distances. In the pacific, for example, Multi-Roles are ideal for island defence, because they can absolutely shred enemy CAGs while having a good range, and being less expensive to run than interceptors. The thing is, getting Multi-roles is 'only' one extra tech, once you've researched it, any Small Aeroplane research you do will apply to both Int and Ftr, so it might be a good long term plan to build some of both, tactical flexibility etc.

MR-Fighters are an interesting option, especially where distances are an issue, like in South-East Asia, or the Pacific, but because of their limited bombardment capability, it might be better to just stay with the INT and build more Airfields. Another aspect is the impossibility for Romania to reasearch all the Air theories and upgrades in time. Therefore even the slightest advantage in Air to Air battler matters.

Of course, in the case of L Arm, you might want to get to SP Art, so this might not be viable.

SP Art are for Minors hard to research, unless they sacrifice something else. Indeed, pairing L Arm with engineers would be a waste of speed. The cheap thing to do is to build exclusive L Arm divisions. Is losing CA bonus so important?

Might I suggest an alternative path, which could be more interesting than investing in dedicated AT brigades: If you want to have a bomber force on the cheap, you can go for CAS, again it's one extra tech, and then there is the recurring Light bomb tech. (or you can just buy licences). Building CAS instead of Tac allows you to maximise small aircraft practical, as you share practical and most upgrades across Int, Ftr, and CAS. If you want naval bombers, you can always license-build CAG and base them on land.
CAS aren't very good against soft targets (slightly better than Ftr, but miles behind Tac), but against hard targets they're brilliant. CAS instead of spread out AT also means that your flying tank-killers can be rapidly deployed exactly where the enemy tanks are. A possible issue is the short range of CAS, so you might have to build more Airfields.
Another is that they're particularly vulnerable to enemy fighters. You can counter that by pairing several CAS wings with a Ftr wing, making the entire formation a lot more durable in the face of enemy intercepts.

Your proposal is great, since this solution would spare me valuable resources of time and MP! RoverS3, I will try to do that against the majors: no AT brigades, but CAS with some specific doctrines and updates to repeal the Armour attacks. Would 3x CAS plus 1 FTR be an optimal formation? TACs are important because the great majority of a Major's units are infantry divisions. Controlling the Airspace and helping the land units with TAC bombardment is an indispensable help in keeping the MP draining lower and sometimes turning the tide of a battle. Should I delay TACs research, I will have to buy them from someone advanced. Hopefully someone will be so nice and sell me the licences...

By the way, does anybody know what increases the chance of receiving licences, besides joining an alliance? Does Trade suffice for example?

Guys, CAS is not my specialty. Thus I have a barrage of CAS related queastions for you :D.

In which phase of the battle is CAS more effective against the armour, during or after? If one can see a Tank division moving behind the enemy lines or along them, and you have the control of the skies, is it effective to attack that unit with CAS? What if that Armour division is among other INF divisions? Does the CAS firepower not spread among all units, which translates into a relative tanks' protection? Is CAS better used against stationary or moving targets? And finally how does a CAS formation achieve maximum firepower: one group of 4x CAS, 2 of 3 CAS, 3x CAS + 1 Ftr. Does adding 1 Ftr to bomber formations not apply the stacking penalty to bombing's efficiency?

If you want versatility, and to minimise terrain penalties: L Arm, Mot, Eng, SP (R) Art, Mot-AA/TD (this is limited to 8 km/h, but has the highest possible combined arms bonus), or L Arm, Motx2, Eng, SP (R) Art / Mot-AA

I have seen that the AI combines his Armour divisions to get max. CA bonus. Is this effective? I think that a pure L. Arm, or M. Arm + 1 Eng division will crush any such CA focused divisions.

Combined arms is no the be all end all of division composition though, Armour, piercing attack, soft attack, hard attack, and defensiveness all factor directly into combat. A binary Division usually has an edge on the offensive, and in cases where you fill up the front with binary Divisions, but on the defensive a triangular division will usually be stronger. And then you still have to factor in speed, IC, Manpower, and research.

It might be a subjective impression, but a binary Division, while packing more firepower in the early hours of a battle, it might underperform on a dragging one, because of overwhelmed frontage, unless, of course, you have more divisions involved than the enemy, or you occupy the max. frontage.

'm curious where this comes from. In my experience, a binary division is nearly always inferior to a triangular division unless the enemy is so weak that it doesn't matter. If anything, a binary division ought to be a bit better defensively because you can attach ART + AT to fend off infantry and armored divisions equally well, but the loss of holding power with fewer frontline brigades makes this debatable.

Offensively, the only way I can think of binary divisions being stronger would be as "shock" divisions with 2x line brigade, 2x ART/SPART to deal a lot of damage with the initial strike, but again with only 2x frontline brigades you'll have difficulty sustaining any offensive. You can of course fit more divisions into the combat width but due to stacking penalties this really doesn't matter.

An logical point of view. Any battlefield experience with binary vs triangular divisions?

As for the optimal Inf divisions formation, having to be very economical with the brigades and looking for minimizing MP losses in battles, I reached the following conclusions:
- Because 90% of the enemy's divisions are infantry, the most valuable support brigade is ART.
- AT is correpondigly useless in 90% of cases.
- However around 1943, M and H Armours become a more common sight and they can punch your lines hard if one doesn't counter them appropriately.
- To defend effectively in this phase, one needs a few tank divisions placed strategically behind large sections of the front, ready to intevene as soon as an armour attack occur. Alternatively one can built a few 3x INF + 2 AT div. to do the same thing.
- Any of these Anti-tank solutions are relatively expensive for Romania in terms of IC and MP. I'll try the CAS approach suggested by @roverS3, and gladly report here to my friends ;).

With 'Superior Firepower', you can have Infx3, Art, At, which is an excellent defensive unit. I haven't done extensive analysis on that, but it seems to me that triangular Divisions, with three front-line brigades are stronger on the defensive, than binary Divisions. Infantry brigades seem to wear down less quickly than support brigades. One on one, a triangular Division will hold on longer when attacked, in my experience anyway. You can also hold a front with fewer Divisions using triangular Divisions.

Agreed, except I would use AT rearely, preferring the 2x ART firepower most of the time.

Of course with Superior Firepower everything changes. The thing is that there's not really any mechanic tied to binary vs. trinary that would dictate an offense/defense split. If a triangular division would hold longer on the defensive, it would also hold out longer on the offensive, and conversely if a binary division would do more damage to defeat the enemy quickly on offense the same would hold for defense. I may be missing something in the mechanics but that's my understanding.


Tanks (as opposite to anti-take technology) feel like a very expensive millstone for a country like Romania.

Tanks are really expensive for Minors - including for a relatively strong one -, but without at least up to dated L Arm, you stand no chance of an effective offensive against Majors. Therefore Romania must research tanks. However Medium tanks are unachievable. This under the changed circumstances of Romania receiving from the beginning an increase of 2,5 times of its base Leadership, from 2,9 to 7,6 (mentioned in the first posts). I did this because many minors have been exaggeratedly nerfed in HOI3. Countries like the ones in (South-) Eastern Europe, Brazil, Canada and Australia share the same fate. For comparison, the weakest Major, Italy, has 9 base Leadership, the next thresholds being around 14, 25, 30, 35-40.
 
In which phase of the battle is CAS more effective against the armour, during or after? If one can see a Tank division moving behind the enemy lines or along them, and you have the control of the skies, is it effective to attack that unit with CAS? What if that Armour division is among other INF divisions? Does the CAS firepower not spread among all units, which translates into a relative tanks' protection? Is CAS better used against stationary or moving targets? And finally how does a CAS formation achieve maximum firepower: one group of 4x CAS, 2 of 3 CAS, 3x CAS + 1 Ftr. Does adding 1 Ftr to bomber formations not apply the stacking penalty to bombing's efficiency?
CAS is most effective against hard units, so a province with only or mostly tank Divisions of one kind or another will take the most damage. That said, it does a good amount of damage against all but the softest units. Even if a tank divisions is amongst softer Divisions CAS will still be relatively effective, though the firepower does spread. As for when to use CAS, it depends on several factors. If you go all out, and have a lot of CAS relative to front width, you could hit every single Tank Division you can see, whether it's attacking or not. For firepower, it depends how you want to work. If you want to get the most out of every CAS wing send them out 1 at a time, if you want to do the most damage, send out CASx4 or CASx5 (depending on your leader's skill, which counters stacking penalties somewhat), a good middle ground is CASx3. Of course, the risk with pure CAS formations is that they get shot down like flies when they get intercepted by enemy fighters. If you're sure that you'll be able to have Air Superiority, and maintain it, CASx2 or CASx3 is probably the best formation, CASx4 if you have a skilled commander. Adding Ftr to a CAS wing will make the CAS slightly less effective due to the stacking penalty (though this is mostly compensated by Ftr's limited ground attack capabilities), but it will increase survivability, meaning that your mixed CASx2, Ftr or CASx3, Ftr, will suffer significantly less damage when intercepted, and be able to return to action more quickly than a pure CAS wing. An added bonus is that the enemy fighters will take more damage with Ftr in your CAS wing. If you want to fully send it, you could even go with CASx2, Ftrx2, and skimp on interceptors. Those kinds of formations will give the enemy air force, and tanks, a headache as they won't be put out of action for long, and will seriously damage intercepting enemy fighters.

I've been using CASx2, Ftr extensively as the Soviet Union, and this has allowed me to keep my interceptors grounded, and intercept enemy formations as they are spotted. The CASx2, Ftr wings that get intercepted suffer relatively little damage, and are back up and running a day later or so. I save a ton of fuel and supplies, by not having my interceptors flying 24/7. The great thing about CAS is: The harder the unit, the more damage you do. I've noticed that H Arm Divisions are particularly vulnerable.

When to use bombers? Usually I use them only against units that are attacking mine, and use the downtime for them to recuperate. But, if you have excess bomber capacity, or you want to focus on tanks specifically, attacking tanks behind the lines is definitely a good way of wearing down enemy tank forces before they ever get into contact with your troops. In the Winter war, I kept hitting enemy units, even when they weren't fighting, but in the GPW, German units have good AA, and there are always a lot of battles going on, and thus I save my bombers for them to support active battles, and let them recuperated when they don't have a battle to support.

I have seen that the AI combines his Armour divisions to get max. CA bonus. Is this effective? I think that a pure L. Arm, or M. Arm + 1 Eng division will crush any such CA focused divisions.
SP Art are for Minors hard to research, unless they sacrifice something else. Indeed, pairing L Arm with engineers would be a waste of speed. The cheap thing to do is to build exclusive L Arm divisions. Is losing CA bonus so important?
The first tier of the CA bonus is the most effective. As in real life, there is a lot of value in pairing tanks with (mobile) Infantry (15% CA bonus for L Arm, Mot, and 0 CA bonus for L Arm alone). Adding AC is an optional extra (+5% L Arm bonus, only if Infantry is present), but without any Infantry, your L Arm will suffer. If you add a Battle Master commander, he will add another 10% to the CA tally, but only if your unit is a combined arms formation to begin with (ie it has Infantry and at least some different type of unit)

I agree that SP Art might not be worth the hassle. I don't see how exclusive L Arm is much cheaper than L Armx2, Mot, unless you have to research Mot. If you can't easily build Mot domestically, you could go for pure L Arm at first, and then later improve the Division composition as soon as you can get license-built Mot, or even Mech.

By the way, does anybody know what increases the chance of receiving licences, besides joining an alliance? Does Trade suffice for example?
You don't necessarily need to be allied, just closely aligned to the nation you want licences from, that will usually do it.

It might be a subjective impression, but a binary Division, while packing more firepower in the early hours of a battle, it might underperform on a dragging one, because of overwhelmed frontage, unless, of course, you have more divisions involved than the enemy, or you occupy the max. frontage.
Sounds about right. That's what I'm seeing as the Soviet Union, fighting German binary Infantry Divisions with triangular Rifle Divisions. The contrast is even starker as most of my rifle Divisions are Infx3, AT, Art. If both sides are fully organised before the start of the battle, the Germans need 2 of their Divisions to dislodge one of mine, and even then, they tend to take relatively heavy casualties.

Agreed, except I would use AT rarely, preferring the 2x ART firepower most of the time.
That could definitely work, the added soft attack of the Art will probably make up for the 'loss' of 5% CA bonus, especially if you don't have the budget to properly upgrade said AT. If you develop Engineers, it could be interesting to mix in some of them in. Engineers will allow units to dig in more quickly, to move more quickly in bad terrain, to wear down fortifications more easily, and to attack across rivers more easily. They do consume fuel, but with short supply lines, that shouldn't be too much of an issue.

Tanks are really expensive for Minors - including for a relatively strong one -, but without at least up to dated L Arm, you stand no chance of an effective offensive against Majors. Therefore Romania must research tanks.
I don't really agree with that. Yes, you usually need some tanks, or at least mobile divisions, to succeed, but you can buy them with licenses. See, for example @Bullfilter 's Turkish Army. No significant domestic tank development, but a whole bunch of license-built Soviet tanks in the field, including Arm and H Arm, they're doing real damage. Of course, if you develop your own tanks, you can keep upgrading them, so it's not a bad thing per se to develop domestic L Arm, especially from a historical point of view, but I wouldn't say it's absolutely necessary. Just buy licenses once you get close to the war so they're not too out of date when you use the purchased tanks, and keep buying licences throughout the conflict. Good Infantry, with good Artillery, some mobile units, and maybe some special forces. That can be enough to do well, if you add in a powerful Air Force (for a minor) and some paratroopers, you can do great, all without tanks.

Whatever you decide, I look forward to seeing the Romanian army in action.
 
Oops, I missed this one:

Your proposal is great, since this solution would spare me valuable resources of time and MP! RoverS3, I will try to do that against the majors: no AT brigades, but CAS with some specific doctrines and updates to repeal the Armour attacks. Would 3x CAS plus 1 FTR be an optimal formation? TACs are important because the great majority of a Major's units are infantry divisions. Controlling the Airspace and helping the land units with TAC bombardment is an indispensable help in keeping the MP draining lower and sometimes turning the tide of a battle. Should I delay TACs research, I will have to buy them from someone advanced. Hopefully someone will be so nice and sell me the licences
You can be smart with your IC, and building CAS, Int, (and maybe Ftr), will give you a big leg up in 'Small Aircraft Practical', that means that they'll all become progressively cheaper to build (not counting improvements to the designs, which will make them more expensive). This means that your TACs will probably cost around twice as much as CAS by the time you get hold of the licenses, if not more. That said, Tac is very useful, and you could definitely use a few wings to great effect against soft targets. Tac can also fly more types of missions, like installation strikes, logistical strikes, strategic bombings etc. The longer range of TAC means that you can add more firepower through Tac, even when your front-line Air Bases are full to the brim with CAS and Int. I'm not saying don't buy any Tac, but weigh the cost of adding another Tac wing, with the advantages of adding 2 more CAS wings... As a minor, you pretty much have to choose. Either you focus on building as many small planes as possible, or you go for lots of license-built Tacs. The former means you get a lot of CAS, and sprinkle in just a few license-built Tacs, the latter means that you'll have significantly fewer bombers over all, but as you're building mostly Tacs they will be a little cheaper. The ultimate Air Force on a budget is definitely composed of a vast majority of single-engine aeroplanes.
 
I've been using CASx2, Ftr extensively as the Soviet Union, and this has allowed me to keep my interceptors grounded, and intercept enemy formations as they are spotted. The CASx2, Ftr wings that get intercepted suffer relatively little damage, and are back up and running a day later or so. I save a ton of fuel and supplies, by not having my interceptors flying 24/7. The great thing about CAS is: The harder the unit, the more damage you do. I've noticed that H Arm Divisions are particularly vulnerable.

OK, combining CAS, Ftr looks like a safe bet.

but in the GPW, German units have good AA

What is GPW, a mode? Can you install modes on a Mac?

As in real life, there is a lot of value in pairing tanks with (mobile) Infantry (15% CA bonus for L Arm, Mot, and 0 CA bonus for L Arm alone)

L Arm with Mot gives a nice bonus, but is it worth losing 2km/h?
Agreed Arm with Eng is a very good option, but again L Arm would lose speed, which is essential in encirclements.

The ultimate Air Force on a budget is definitely composed of a vast majority of single-engine aeroplanes.

What is the difference between single-engine aeroplanes and two engines planes?

One more thing. INT are flying interception missions only when enemy planes are detected. Doesn't it mean that most of the time INT are staying idle with no or minimal consumption of fuel and supplies?
 
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What is GPW, a mode? Can you install modes on a Mac?
Shorthand for 'Great Patriotic War'... The Soviet name for the Axis 'Eastern Front'.

L Arm with Mot gives a nice bonus, but is it worth losing 2km/h?
Ideally, you would pair L Arm with Mec, but that only becomes available for license-purchase in 1941, if you're lucky. For pure exploitation, you're better off not adding Mot, with the understanding that your pure L Arm Division won't stand up to much if it's actually engaged. It's up to you to decide if you're willing to compromise a little in the interest of versatility and combat ability, or whether you want to absolutely make sure you have the fastest Divisions out there.

Agreed Arm with Eng is a very good option, but again L Arm would lose speed, which is essential in encirclements.
Don't pair L Arm with Eng, unless you want a unit that's still fast in very bad terrain (Jungle, Forest,...). In my Soviet game, I built a few L Arm, Mot, Engx2 units for the Far East, as the Japs don't tend to have any armour (so those extra 2 kph doesn't matter much), and the terrain is pretty bad. I'm yet to use them, so I don't know how well they stack up.

What is the difference between single-engine aeroplanes and two engines planes?
They have different tech trees and different practical knowledge. You can see which category a plane type belongs to by hovering over the little blue square in it's production screen. Completing a wing of any aeroplane type will give you practical knowledge for aeroplanes of the same size, which in turn will make research into similar aeroplanes, and the production of similar aeroplanes cheaper. So, building an air force of Int, Ftr, CAS & CAG is more efficient production-, and research-wise, than building an Air Force that mixes different aeroplane sizes.

One more thing. INT are flying interception missions only when enemy planes are detected. Doesn't it mean that most of the time INT are staying idle with no or minimal consumption of fuel and supplies?
Yes, that's the point. That said, the only way to absolutely guarantee clear skies for vulnerable pure CAS formations is to fly Air superiority over enemy Air Bases. With Air Intercept, the enemy interceptors often get an hour or so to shred the defenceless bombers before the cavalry shows up, unless the battle is pretty much on top of the Air Base the interceptors fly out of. Intercepting is reactive, air superiority is pro-active.
 
Thank you @roverS3 for all your support. Let's get to our main business :).

The Furies of War
Against German Dominance in South-Eastern Europe: Silencing Hungary


On the eve of the Romanian-Hungarian war, the Romanian army relied on:

- 18 INF div. (3xINF + ART)
- 2 MTN div. (4xMTN)
- 2 CAV div. (4CAV / 2CAV)
- 1 L Arm div. (2 L Arm + 2 Mot - 8km/h) [French R-1 L Arm]
- 1 Aerial Group entailing 1 INT, 1 TAC, 1 NAV [Polish PZL P.11C INT, English Bristol Blenheim MK.I TAC, and Italian SIAI-Marchetti SM.79 Sparviero NAV].

The plan of war laid out by the General Staff (Psst... Strictly secret, don't tell anyone) bears two war scenarios in mind.

First, the Romanian army will try to blitz through the southern border, which is - as far as Romanians know - relatively sparsely defended, and keep advancing until they reach and conquer Budapest.

The Czech friends have informed the Government that, after the Turkish open support for Romania, Hungary has decided to move a high number of its troops on the Czechoslovak border. Does this suggest an imminent German invasion of Czechoslovakia? The Czechoslovak President has asked us to annihilate Hungary as soon as possible, because his country can counter the German military while the French allies would intervene, but only if Hungary does not attack at the same time.

The Romanian officers have calculated that Hungary will have time to support the northern front with Romania, but it will take much longer to bring their units to the south. This opens a window of opportunity for our rush offensive.

One also has to take into consideration this is a winter campaign. The territory where the fighting is taking place is frozen, or muddy and frozen, and the temperature on 16.12.1937 varies between -1,3 ºC and -4,8 ºC, forecasted to sink further. The risk is that the advance will slow down considerably, prolonging the campaign for many months. The Air Group has the mission to prevent enemy bombardment, and occasionally to support advancing divisions.

Battle Plan in Hungary Dec. 1937
HUN War Plan final 16.12.1937.png


King Carol II asked the army to defeat Hungary in 6 to 8 weeks. Anything beyond that would bring Romania diplomatically in great difficulties.

Should the war last beyond 2 months, the Romanian army will push the frontline towards the Danube in the South, and encircle Budapest in the north.

The main thrust will occur from Sânnicolau Mare and Arad. 13 out of 18 INF divisions will be concentrated here, along the Armour division, and the two CAV divisions. The rest of the front will covered by 5 INF div. and 2 MTN div., with the main secondary force trying to close the upper encirclement direction.

HUN Army placement in South.png


The Southern offensive will begin with 6 Divisions advancing into Hodmezövasarhely, and 2-3 attacking Bekesczaba to prevent a counterattack in the first province. Once the first wave reaches Hodmezövasarhely, the Armour and Cav divisions will brake through, rushing towards Budapest. The rest of the infantry will fill the gaps behind as soon as possible.

In the case of successful Hungarian defense, the tanks and the cavalry will stop in Monor to rest, while the still available infantry units will move to close the encirclement at the center of the frontline, bordering Oradea. This will mark the second Scenario of a long battle, with 2 successive frontlines.
 
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The Furies of War
Against German Dominance in South-Eastern Europe: Silencing Hungary (II)


Twelve days into the war operation the results are within moderate expectations.

A minor detail, the Order of Battle on 16.12.1937

ROM Order of Battle 16.12.37.png

Without much reinforcement available the northern front has modest gaines (Kisvarda). The cold weather is also slowing the advance considerably, giving the Hungarians time to regroup along the Tisa river. The rapid victory in Kisvarda was possible because we overwhelmed the frontage. Seeing that the enemy uses the Debrecen Airfield for bombardment missions, the General Staff decided to mount an attack there, no matter what the initial plan was. Hungary responded with a counterattack from four directions, bringing the Debrecen defenders in great dangers.

Next morning the Infantry division cut the Bekes attack on Debrecen, and the Carei 3rd division took by surprize the Nyiregyhaza forces, which in short order chose to retreat to a better ground behind Tisa River. The enemy divisions from Karcag and Miskolo continued the offensive, but the 15th Infantry division held ground, until reinforcement from Tasnad arrived.

During the first 10 days of battle, the Hungarian airforce fiercely battled the Romanian group. The first rounds went undecided, with a slight advantage for the Romanian side. Once Debrecen was taken, the enemy wings hastily rebased to Budapest. With halved organisation, the Hungarian airplanes have lost the air initiative.

Southward Hungary managed to scramble two divisions in Szeged and in Kecsemet, taking the Romanians by surprise. Soon enough they engaged the advancing divisions from both sides, delaying the offensive critically. The first wave involved 10 divisions instead of 6-8, and the Tanks with the Cavalry (3 divisions) were stopped by the Szolnok division. Only the air intervention has shortened the battle decisively, resulting in only a 48 hours organization delay instead of the usual 141... Only one division was left movint from Bekescsaba to Kecskemet. In this phase the headquarter was afraid the enemy might cut the advancing troopse if Romanians won't secure Kecskemet rapidly.

However, 5 divisions were still moving in a third wave from Arad to Bekescsaba. Hopefully they will advance in time to continue the offensive.

Romanian Offensive 28.12.1937
HUN Campaign 28.12.37.png
HUN War Plan 28.12.1937.png



DIPLOMATiC Front

On the 17th December all the European Majors summoned the Romanian ambassadors for explanations and sent official protests to Bucharest.

The Soviet reaction was pretty much muted, a sign that Turkey has informed them. The officials think the Russians have calculated that the Romanian move must be in their advantage in one way or another. Should Romania be attacked by Germany, USSR might profit to invade Bessarabia, and there might arise a Franco-German conflict. Should Romania be incapable of invading Hungary, the country's name will be tarnished leaving it more vulnerable and less integrated in its alliance system. If Romania succeeds, this would reduce German influence in the whole South-East Europe, which would be a slap on the face of German talk about Vital Space expansionism, indirectly strengthening the Soviet hand. Anyway, the Romanians suspected the Turkish support for Romania against Hungary was not without some acceptance from Moscow. Ultimately Stalin is known as a cautious man, avoiding impulsive decisions until he is not sure of his chances.

The French especially were not pleased for being let aside from the whole plot and reacted angrily. They have aired their frustration to the Romanian ambassador and hinted to a possible reassessment of the French security guarantee for Romania. It took the concerted diplomatic action by the Polish and Czechoslovak diplomacy to calm down the spirits in Paris and London. They patiently explained the advantages of the Romanian invasion for the Allied position in the region and for the security of France's allies. Carol II preferred complete silence to avoid further heating the charged atmosphere.

Il Doce Benito Mussolini was very unhappy because Fascist Italy and Hungary have come a long way to nurture close diplomatic relations, united by their revanchist aims against Yugoslavia, and by Italy's efforts to carve out its own sphere of influence in South-Eastern Europe, somewhat shielded from the German towering might and competition. Italy, fully engaged in its North Africa military reinforcement effort and with the navy unable to enter the Black Sea, was not in the position to threaten Romania beyond diplomatic protests, but pushed Jugoslavia to grant Hungary transit rights on the 23 December 1937. This has upset the Romanian Government greatly, who interpreted the Yugoslav action as hostile to Romania and a treason of the two Alliance treaties where both states were parties. More than that Bucharest thought at this stage Yugoslavia has definitely fallen in the Italian sphere of influence. After a harsh diplomatic exchange Romania filled on 27 December a formal request to expel Yugoslavia from the Balkan Pakt and the Little Entente. Fearing of being discovered that they knew about the Hungarian invasion, and even supported it, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Greece and Turkey preferred to delay Alliances' Summits until the conflicts draws to an end.

Hitler was outright furious at the news of soon to be his protégées being invaded by a pro-France Ally. He took this as an affront from Carol II. The German Ambassador in Bukarest gave a letter to the Romanian King, where the Reichschancellor threatened Romania with severe consequences if the aggression war continues. The press in Nazi Germany started immediately a vilification campaign against Romania. Germany asked for urgent peace negotiations, which Romania accepted under the condition of exclusion of the Hungarians. The second request of a ceasefire was ignored.

Given the bad blood between the two state leaders, Carol II avoided seeing Hitler again, sending instead on 20 December a delegation led by the general Ion Victor Antonescu, the Chief of the General Staff. His mission was to find out what the Germans really wanted, and if they could be convinced to accept a long term Romanian invasion of Hungary without antagonising them. It was expected that the country would have a steep price to pay. Nothing would be too expensive though for securing the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
 
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The questoin is how will Hitler's fury manifest?
 
A decent start to the campaign. You're closing in on Budapest already, just have to wait a few days for reinforcements to be brought up. I like the planned encirclement, but I don't think it will be necessary. Aren't Debrecen and Budapest the only 2 VP provinces Hungary has?
 
A decent start to the campaign. You're closing in on Budapest already, just have to wait a few days for reinforcements to be brought up. I like the planned encirclement, but I don't think it will be necessary. Aren't Debrecen and Budapest the only 2 VP provinces Hungary has?
Pecs is also 2 VP worth (Southern Hungary, West of Danube).
 
A decent start to the campaign. You're closing in on Budapest already, just have to wait a few days for reinforcements to be brought up. I like the planned encirclement, but I don't think it will be necessary. Aren't Debrecen and Budapest the only 2 VP provinces Hungary has?
Agree with this assessment (sharp as always @roverS3 :)). In a small country like Hungary, grabbing the VPs first will be quicker and save a lot of casualties - if it can be managed. Germany will surely now just hate Romania - even if the would-be (in another reality) ‘Conducator’ is the one leading the negotiating team.

NB: looking at their National Unity and comparing it to the VPs on offer will tell you whether all three are needed, or just Budapest and one other.
 
German-Romanian Trade Negotiations. What about Hungary

The Führer and Reichschancellor received the Romanian delegation personally on 22 December 1937, signalling the importance Germany attributed to the negotiations. To his and his delegation astonishment Ion Antonescu was received with state honours.

Hitler receives Antonescu, end of December 1937
Hitler receiving Antonescu.jpg


It turned out General Antonescu with his strong personality and German-like severity and strictness has made a deep impression on Adolf Hitler, who as a former corporal had an ingrained respect for generals. Without much introduction he explained privately to Antonescu that “the Reich expects from Romania economic solutions, facts, and the clarification of the situation of distrust”. The Romanians were stunted that there was no word about the Hungarian crisis. It dawned on them at once that the true stake of the negotiations was Germany’s interest for the country’s oil and possibly for subordinating its economy.

To understand Adolf Hitler’s surprising change of tact one should come to know some background information. The moment Adolf Hitler came to power on January 30, 1933 coincided with the affirmation and concretisation of certain tendencies and plans of the New Nazi Reich for the revision of the Paris-Versailles system at a continental level, at first, and eventually at a global level. In the first years of the Reich’s existence, Berlin was primarily interested in the issues of the German space (Rhineland, the Sudetes, the port Danzig, Memel, Austria, and Bohemia-Moravia), and, later on, in the countries of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. Mostly everywhere, the Reich had to combat the Anglo-French presence or influence, established after the 1918 defeat. Thus, as early as March 13, 1933 the German diplomats were studying the possibilities for Berlin to penetrate Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and Romania. Later, in October 1934, at the funeral of the King Alexandru I of Yugoslavia, King Carol II met in Belgrade with Berlin’s second in command, Hermann Göring, who declared his interest, first of all, in the acquisition of Romanian agricultural products. The sovereign declined the offer and, seemingly understating the subtext, pointed out that an anti-French orientation was inconceivable in Bucharest. Over the years, Göring kept cool and sought for a future opportunity to gain access to the Romanian massive oil and cereals production, the former being essential for the next Great War to establish German international hegemony. The Nazis have planned to make the necessary preparations for the war in 5 years, between 1936 and 1940, with the outlook of starting the conflagration as soon as the chance arises, between 1940 and 1950.

On the 17 December 1937, the German military attaché to Warsaw and Bucharest, Colonel A. Gerstenberg – at the suggestion of the now Marshal Hermann Göring – told Grigore Gafencu, the former Romanian foreign minister and a close friend and brilliant international politics adviser of Carol II, about the hostile atmosphere of Romania in Berlin. Yet, the Reich’s Marshal wanted to know, “if it was possible to establish [between Germany and Romania] a durable economic relation as part of a larger and longer lasting plan?”

Seeing that Carol II sent Grigore Gafencu as economic chief within Antonescu’s delegation, Marshal Göring – the brain behind the National-Socialist Government – remained favourable towards Romania despite the Hungarian scandal, managing to calm Hitler down, before the Romanians came to Berlin. He explained the Führer that Germany, preparing ardently for war, must undertake every effort to obtain, through advantageous agreements, the basic products of Romanian economy, petroleum, ores and cereals.

Little did Antonescu know that the most substantive negotiations would take place between Göring and Gafencu. Ion Victor Antonescu answered Adolf Hitler that Romania is prepared to negotiate a lasting political relation with Germany, whereby economic questions would find reciprocal satisfactorily solutions. Göring, who took part at the negotiations, warned that the Reich’s “doubt” regarding the general [political] orientation of Romania “can be eliminated first of all through the economic agreements that needed to be concluded as soon as possible”. The Romanian government has already decided to engage in negotiations regarding the signing of an economic treaty, stressed renewed another member of the delegation.

It was understood by the Romanian negotiators that Germany would overlook the Hungary transgression if Germany could bring Romania into its sphere of influence, and get access to the country’s strategic resources.

Next, Adolf Hitler asked Romania to stop hostilities against Hungary and retreat on the original alignments. Antonescu retorted this is not possible, because Hungary constituted a fundamental threat to Romania’s territorial integrity, by continuously plotting to annex Transylvania. Romania’s territory is simply non-negotiable.

Following a long silence, the Reichschancellor asked what would be in Romanian view the status of Hungary, should the country be defeated. Romania would institute an occupation regime with the rectification of borders to the Tisa river, given the substantive Romanian population there, this being the original territory demands of the Romanian Government at the Versailles peace negotiations, maintained the General.

Hitler said that Hungary has a loyal government to Germany. Therefore Romania should take the German concerns into account. The Romanian side explained His Majesty Carol II was interested in installing in Hungary a Romanian-friendly government [puppet], but there was no such political force. In conclusion, freeing Hungary now would bring Romania to the ante bellum status quo, with Budapest even more hostile than before. Obviously, this is under no circumstances an acceptable outcome to Romania. This war is aimed exactly at eliminating a grave and since decades unresolved security risk. Besides the mentioned issues, responded Hitler, Germany wants to make sure that Romania would never use its presence in Hungary to attack Germany in conjunction with other powers. A long term acceptance of Romanian military presence or influence in Hungary can only be condoned by Berlin only if Romania publicly renounces the French security guarantees and turns economically and politically towards Germany. Such a matter is beyond the mandate of His Majesty’s delegation, replied Antonescu.

After one week of intense negotiations, which ran multiple difficulties, the parties agreed to continue with more rounds, in January, both in Bucharest and Berlin. As expected, the most contentious issues were related to the economic agreement.
 
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Some rather tense negotiations with Adolf there. Will Romania take a step back from it's alliance with France to avoid German aggression? Will Germany be able to buy Romanian oil? At least, it seems you've got the Führer's attention now. It remains to be seen whether that's good or bad in the long run.
 
I think these are probably delaying tactics. If the title of the AAR is on point, then they will stay true to the Allies (or try to stay neutral until it’s safe) to remain ‘between’ them. Unless it’s deliberately cryptic and it’s a choice between them, but I don’t think it’s likely. Hitler is being strung along here until Hungary can be beaten, then present Germany with a fait accompli.

But even an alliance of most of the central and Eastern European countries plus France and the UK probably won’t be enough in 1938 or 39 to stop the Germans. Even having the Soviets in early isn’t going to be enough either. Fascinating to see what the Romanian strategy for survival will be.
 
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I wouldn't trust the jumped up corporal.
 
The Furies of War
Against German Dominance in South-Eastern Europe: Silencing Hungary (III)


Three days later (since the last war report on 28.12.1937) the situation didn't look rosy for the Romanian army. The weather became even frostier, and Hungary has stabilized the northern front with the troops from the Czechoslovak border. Any attack over Tisa would have been very intensive in MP costs, whereby reserves troops were scarce as hell.

In Budapest Hungary had stationed the 1st Infantry Division, which was well entrenched in the city behind the solid protection of the Danube River. At the arrival of the first tank regiments in the capital, the Hungarians sank with explosives the bridges infront of their Parliament. The Romanian Airforce, which heroically succeeded to ground the enemy wings, received the order to bombard the enemy positions. Cavalry divisions entered the frame securing the east side of Budapest, but the assault essentially came to a halt. 4 Romanian Infantry divisions that managed to escape the harassment tactics of the Hungarians troops north and south of the Romanian brackthrough rushed through Kecskemet in the hope of incresing pressure on Budapest.

The General Staff of the Army was worried the Budapest blitz attack was a lost cause, especially if the enemy will be able to bring reinforcements into their capital. The only glimmer of hope came from the bombardemnt air wings, which saw no troopes in the provinces bordering Budapest.

Nevertheless it was supposed that the fighting will last at least two weaks, giving Hungary plenty of time to bring in new divisions. After a thorough situation assessment, the high commanders decided to wait and see how things evolve. Should the Tank and Cavalry divisions take heavy casualties, the offensive will be reoriented towards encircling the main Hungarian army part concentrated beatween east of Budapest and the Romanian border.

Only Debrecen was secured, protected ironically by the bad weather and Tisa.

Suddenly, the prospect of a short campaign seemed far away, and the Romanian Prime Minister Ioan Gigurtu threatened that responsibles in the officer corps will pay a heavy price, if the campaign turns badly.

Siege of Budapest, 31.12.1937
HUN Budapest siege 31.12.37.png


The Kecsemet Infantry entered without delay on the 2nd of January in the subusbs of Budapest from Monor relaunching the offensive, but things turned sour. At first, the odds of success were in 60 to 40 in favour of the defenders, but the superior artillery and armament of the Romanian Infantry has slowly changed the direction. On 3 January a fresh Hungarian division was observed by our reconnaissance airplanes moving towards Budapest via Salgotajan.

The Military police found meanwhile a Hungarian spy behind the lines.


Budapest siege in peril

WAR HUN 5.1.38.png

By the 4th January, as the situation looked again better on the Budapest frontline and the weather got warmer, an enemy division barely arrived from Szeged in Kiskunhalas counterattacked Monor from the south to cut the Budapest siege. In the ensuing chaos, one cavalry and one infantry division almost entered disarray, being ordered at the last minute to stop the siege and cover the back of the front. The chances of taking the capital city continued to rise at a slower pace, but the odds for the defenders in Monor were decreasing at the same rate.

The really bad thing was that given the fixation on conquering Budapest few troops remained in Kecskemet, leaving the forward units at the risk of encirclement. All the ready divisions in Bekecsaba received the order to move to Kecskemet, at the same time with in Szolnok Hungarian division started to march in the same province.

Victory in Budapest, on 6, 7 January 1938

HUN Encirclement of ROM Troops 7 January.png


On the 6 January Budapest fell despite desperate Hungarian efforts, with the Panzer and Cavalry divisions entering the western part of the city, and the Infantry divisions following through the next day. Romania had lost 370 soldiers, and Hungary over 800. Everyone hoped in Bucharest that Hungary would capitulate, but the Hungarians were far from it.

Then desaster stroke! Kecskemet was recaptured by hostile units, cutting the only supply route to Budapest.

Two other enemy divisions were heading towards Monor to completely surround the best Romanian units, which needed between 85 and 95 hours to reorganize...
A newly arrived Hungarian division in Szolnok attacke Bekecsaba Romanian divisions heading for Kecskemet. The situation was desperate for both sides...
On the 8 January a general offensive was started in the hope of slowing down the Hungarian regrouping around Budapest. Even if Kecskement would be captured again, Monor would be surely in Hungarian hands, and time will be of essence. The risk of losing one fourth of the army in Budapest was enormous.

Desperate fightings, 8 January 1938

General offensive 8.01.38.png
 
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Oh dear. This offensive seems to have shades of both the Winter War, from the Soviet side, and of Stalingrad from the German side, what with the brave soldiers trapped in Budapest.

I can't really tell from the maps, but are there good chances of mounting an offensive towards Pecs to try and force a surrender (through controlling VPs) before the Hungarians can organize their defenses? If Debrecen can be held this may be a better use of forces than trying to create an encirclement battle.