Between Axis and Comintern: Romanian Survival (During Action Report)

[Alex Kernel]

German-Italian Spheres of Influence Negotiations (II)

Irrespective of how vexing the Italian modus operandi was, Berlin couldn't afford to derail negotiations with Italy, the single friendly Major Power it could rely on. Being strategically surrounded by hostile powers was no viable option even for the Nazi regime. Creating thinking was here asked for. Maybe Romania, the reasoning in Government's circles was, could solve Germany's strategic dilemma with its own hands. Following a brainstorming meeting in the General Headquarters, Adolf Hitler and Marshal Göring forged an immediate plan of action. On 17 February a double agent in Belgrade delivered the Italian documents to the Romanian Embassy, which telegraphed without delay the main information to Bucharest. King Carol II was in utter disbelief and sought do authenticate the respective documents. Once the experts agreed, these are copies of original documents. What they didn't know was, that some of the documents were modified by the Germans, who made things looks like Yugoslavia already agreed to participate in the anti-Romanian alliance and was preparing its military for an offensive in a few months.
The Yugoslav intentions - even though not so advanced as the partly forged document alluded - were particularly vexing given the country's participation in the Cordon Sanitaire alliances system together with Romania. The Romanian Government concluded in the middle of the night from 17 to 18 February that the information was valid and asked the Chiefs of staff how long would take for the hostile alliance to be ready to start war operations against Romania. According to the officers' opinion, Italy needed 4 to 6 Months to move the bulk of its land forces from North Africa to the Albanian and Yugoslav ports, then bringing those units at the Hungarian-Romanian borders. Italy was already planning to annex Albania no later than early 1939. Yugoslavia has already amassed, curiously enough, most of its army at the Romanian border, with Bulgaria doing the same. The army report has convinced one more time the Romanian leaders of the imminence of a coalition aggression war. Most generals and ministers suggested Romania should neutralise Yugoslavia in the first phase, and Bulgaria in the second. However, this should be made only after at least Germany would in one form or another agree with it. This yet another proof of treason from the Yugoslav Regent convinced Romania to take action.

The next day Victor Antonescu without any official delegation landed in Berlin requesting an urgent meeting with the German Government's representatives. The Reichschanchelor with Hermann Göring and a few generals wasted no time receiving the Romanian general. Antonescu showed them the secret documents incriminating Italy, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. Hitler and his entourage showed shock and indignation, asking what would Romania do in such grave circumstances. His Majesty's Government intends to declare war on Yugoslavia and Bulgaria in rapid succession to thwart the Italian threat to Romania's security, came the prompt answer. Romania has a strategic economic and political relationship with Germany and wants to maintain this direction. The success of the Italian undertaking would greatly damage German interests in South-East Europe as well, continued Antonescu.

"We understand the implications", replied the German head of state. "Should Germany diplomatically support Romania, we want a much deeper Romanian commitment to deepen this strategic commitment". The Romanian official asked what are the German expectations. First, Germany expects a firmer commitment from the Romanian Government that it will deliver most of its oil production to the German market, that it will open the oil and mining industry to German investments. Then on the political level Germany expects a stronger alignment with the German positions. For example, what would Romania do in the event of an Austrian Anschluss? Following a long pause, Antonescu said his country could adopt a complete neutrality on the issue. Romania doesn't expect an Allied-Axis war in this eventuality, given the conciliatory position expressed by the British Premier Minister. Would Germany and Austria decide to unite, the two new neighbours - Germany and Romania - could signal their good will to each other by not militarising Hungary, respectively Austria. On the economic field, Romania is already in the process of facilitating the entrance of German capital on its market, of increasing the exports of cereals, and to market an increasing share of its oil products to Germany. Göring intervened, asking for more substantive settlements, because the actual commitments do not yield the expected results for the parties... General Antonescu agreed to a new round of negotiations starting on 15-20 March 1938 to better specify the present bilateral agreements, in exchange for a free hand against the two countries.

Consequently, on the 20th of February Bucharest started the war preparations against Yugoslavia, by sending its divisions in the vicinity of the Yugoslav border, beyond the sight capabilities of the neighbour. The Romanian decision-makers were relieved that Germany signaled no intentions of invading Romania, thus not being involved in the Italian plot, and couldn't believe their luck Germany was not going to impede Romania secure its borders.

Concomitantly the German side hoped Romania will compromise a lot in the oil policy, possibly ceding the control of the oil industry to Berlin, and it was happy to move Romania one step further away from the Allies by determining her to stay neutral when the Anschluss occurs. Berlin also wanted to weaken the hand of Italy in the advancing Alliance negotiations, and to relegate Rome to a junior partner in the Axis, once the accession is ratified, without any trace of German involvement against Italy's interests. Romania would do well as a counterweight to unmeasured Italian expansionistic ambitions in South-Eastern Europe. The dominant opinion amongst the high ranking generals was Romania did not matter militarily, convincing Hitler that attracting Romania into a military alliance would not bring tangible benefits.

 

[Bullfilter]

So Romania will seek to dominate the Balkans instead of Italy: not sure one is better than the other from a German standpoint. But so long as Romania gets a free hand.

You will probably catch the Yugoslavians unprepared (unmobilised), and having Hungary you will be attacking on a broad front. It may be quite hard though once they start getting up to strength in that rough terrain.

Presumably Bulgaria will stay neutral and may not even mobilise as a precaution (the AI can be quite naive in the situations).

 

[Alex Kernel]

“THE CONDITION OF MAN… IS A CONDITION OF WAR OF EVERYONE AGAINST EVERYONE.” (or maybe, the condition of man under capitalism?)
THOMAS HOBBES

Timeline to the Yugoslav war

1938 promises to be a tumultuous year. Barely ended the Romanian-Hungarian smouldering conflict, when Japan started on 4 February its own war against Chinese states embroiled in their own fight for power.

Japan declares war on Nationalist China, 4th of February 1938

One week later Germany and Japan signed an Alliance treaty, agreeing to accept the other's spheres of influence: Europe, and Africa belonging to Germany, and South-East Asia plus China falling to Japan. The main targets of such an alliance seem to be the British Empire and the Soviet Union. Other powers could be threatened too, like France, Belgium, Holland and the US.

The Romanian leadership is closely following the events, secretly hoping the Allies will keep the balance of power with the Axis. Major power conflicts would threaten the stability of Eastern-Europe, an outcome no one in Bucharest wishes.

Birth of Axis on 10 February 1938

At home, Romanian units are frantically moving to the Yugoslav border. Nor the Romanians, nor the Yugoslavs are able to cover the entire borders, so both armies face difficult choices. According to Romanian intelligence the Yugoslav army is split along three border zones. Army Group North is opposing the Austrian border (Did the Italians whispered something about the coming Anschluss to Yugoslavia?), Army Group Center is facing the Romanian border, and Army Group South is bordering the Greek border, amid a very tensioned territorial dispute (Nord Macedonia). Unsurprisingly the Italian borders are not being guarded. Two divisions seem to defend the area around Zagreb, the former capital of Bosnia under the the Habsburgs.

Preparations of war in full swing, 27 February 1938

Finally, what evereyone in the Romanian waited to see happened: Germany annexed Austria. The international reaction was muted, even in in Paris and London.
King Carol II assumed Italy and Germany have at this point reached an alliance agreement, and feared Germany might side with Italy in the coming war.
In reality, Adolf Hitler unnerved by Benito Mussolini's high pretensions and profiting from a principled acceptance of Italy to cede leverage on Austria for a not yet clarified price for Germany, decided to undertake the annexation step. The idea was to soften the Italian negotiation position with a fait accompli.

Romanians suspected the Axis accession of Italy is mostly a formality and therefore decided to hasten the war preparations. Despite the troops not being fully positioned for offensive/defensive actions, Romania waited no more, declaring war on Yugoslavia on 11 March 1938.

Austrian Aschluss on 9 March 1938

[The next part will present the war plans and the composition of the two armies - yes, I did load the game as Yugoslavia on 9 March 1938 to gather the data for you - on the eve of the war.]

 

[stnylan]

A border with Germany has to be somewhat nervous, despite the meetings

 

[Alex Kernel]

True, an informal meeting is no guarantee in itself. Let's hope Germans keep their word. Beyond a certain Threat level a country risks being DOWed by others, especially Majors. To avoid that one has to carefully calculate the right political alignment. Should I miss the sweet spot, Axis, or Comintern could do it.

Another issue is, if, after Yugoslavia and Bulgaria are annexed, Romania can survive a scenario in which it joins Allies and to which point in history. Does anyone have an idea? I fear that despite a hypothetical Allied help Romania stands no chance against Germany or against the Soviets.

 

[Bullfilter]

Not waiting for all units to be in position is something of a risk - it may give more time for Yugoslavian units to reach full strength from mobilisation (assuming they haven’t mobilised yet). This could be a hard fight.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Yugoslavia - War Plans and Army Comparison

The war plan against Yugoslavia envisions to separate the main army groups from each other, and to cut supplies to two of them.

Romanian War Plans - Operation "Spring Flowers", 3 March 1938

The main offensive effort will start from southern Hungary province with 4 infantry,1 Armour and 2 cavalry divisions, flanked from supporting divisions on both sides. The western flank has the mission to move toward Zagreb and siege it timely.

Western Theatre of Operations, 9.03.1938

The Center Theatre of operations will try to siege the capital Belgrade, also with the help of its flanks.
The Southern army group will try to cut the South-Eastern part of Yugoslavia, but this is a very optimistic scenario. Most probably it will meet and pin down the Yugoslav Army Group South until Belgrade falls to the Center siege effort. In the eventuality of a mounted enemy counterattack, the Mountaineers divisions will defend in Nis, waiting for help.

The Center and Southern Theatres of Operations, 9.03.1938

The power ratio between the opposing forces is in relative equilibrium, except the Yugoslav army is not mobilised.

Romania has 90 brigades, Yugoslavia 67 divided as follows:
- L Arm 2 / 0
- Mot 2 / 1
- AT 0 / 2
- AC 0 / 2
- ART 18 (14 in service) / 0
- CAV 6 / 8
- MTN 8 / 2
- GAR 0 / 6
- POL 0 / 3
- INF 54 / 43.

The Air Armies entail:
- ROM 2 INT, 1 TAC, 1 NAV
- YUG 3 INF, 1 TAC

The Yugoslav navy is superior in numbers, and it is supposed to attack some of our trade cargo ships.

The Government has asked the High Command to conduct the war after the principles of Blitzkrieg as well. It is hoped the war will be ended in two months, one more month being the maximum acceptable extension. If the Yugoslav war will look like a new success, the German-Romanian economic and political negotiations, would be better tilted toward Romanian interests, offsetting some of the German excessive demands.

Not waiting for all units to be in position is something of a risk - it may give more time for Yugoslavian units to reach full strength from mobilisation (assuming they haven’t mobilised yet). This could be a hard fight.

That's true, but the political imperatives of the moment are trumping a more prudent approach, urged by some generals in the General Army Staff too .

 

[Alex Kernel]

WAR WITH YUGOSLAVIA

On the 11 March at 5 AM Romania declared war on Yugoslavia to break the Italian hostile alliance.

Silence Before the Storm 11.03.1938

The whole contact lines were bombarded by the Romanian artillery for the first four hours of 11 March 1938, creating panic and damage to the enemy units.

Early hours of war, 11.03.1938

At 9 AM the infantry and mobile units were ordered to advance against the enemy positions. Bewildered soldiers were leaving their positions in panic, only some brigades putting serious resistance. The first data gathered from the documents left by the enemy HQs revealed that Yugoslavia was indeed preparing for an offensive later this year, but the divisions were still not mobilised.

Serbian air wings where intercepted while bombing the troops over Szeged. The Royal Air Force relies on fewer interceptors, but of slightly newer generation which gives Romanian wings a moderate advantage. Air battles rage for days over the sky of Romania and Yugoslavia, the Romanian Air group slowly getting the upper hand over the enemy. These often undecided air battles are impeding both nations from executing bombardment operations. This proves how important it is for Romania to build strong Air Groups of interceptors. Bombers are also needed, especially TACs, because of their versatility and lack of armour in the enemy forces.

Air Battles over Szeged, not mobilised Yugoslav units

The frontline north of Belgrade falls in less than 24 hours since the beginning of the hostilities, raising hope in capturing the enemy capital in a week or so.

Crumbling Centre Frontline North of Belgrade in less than one day of fights

The Western Front starts promising with rapid advance into undefended neighbouring provinces. The siege of Zagreb begins in 2 days since the declaration of war, and the 3 mobile divisions, closely accompanied by infantry units seem to move like a lightning towards their Target at the Mediterranean Sea. In the last hour, a Yugoslav infantry division manages to enter Gradistea, halting the advance of the mobile units. After two days of fierce fighting, whereby Romania couldn't offer any aerial support, victory comes at a steep price: the armour and cavalry divisions need a whopping 147 hours to reorganise for the next attack. The infantry units have now plenty of time to occupy positions behind the pinned down spearhead troops. Slowly some infantry units overtake the advance task, while Yugoslavia rushes another infantry division to slow the Romanians down.

Fears rise that the Western Front objective are unachievable as set in the war plan, leaving to the enemy the opportunity to continue supplying and mobilising the Western Army Group, and to counterattack.

Western Front, serious delays after 2 days of battles in Gradiska

Bulgaria is very hostile to Romania and demands the Ambassador in Sophia to explain the Romanian aggression against Yugoslavia. Funny, Bulgaria itself had a revisionist policy towards Yugoslavia looking till recently for ways to annex claimed territories. Already on the fourth day of hostilities Bulgaria is granting Yugoslavia Military Access to its territory. Another sign of the Italian, Yugoslav, Bulgarian alliance intentions.

Yugoslav troops on the central front have broken ranks, but the Romanian infantry divisions are advancing very slowly through the Mountainous region. The southern front advances also slowly despite the MTN divisions not encountering enemy forces. Express orders have been issued from the central HQ to speed up the offensive.

Bulgaria shows its true colours: it grants Military Access to our enemies...

International reactions
Outraged by the Romanian actions thwarting his expansion plan in South-East Europe, il Doce Benito Mussolini viscerally protests against Bucharest's brazen expansionistic drives, asking all Major Powers military action against it. He threatens even Romania with war and expulses the Romanian ambassador in Rome. The Soviet Union joins the chorus of critique, being from principle against an invasion of its Slavic brothers, and ask Romania in ultimative terms to stop the invasion. The problem for Italy is that it has not enough forces close enough to Yugoslavian territory to man a war against Romania, and doing so in half a year would expose Italian security in the Mediterranean and weaken Italian claims in Africa and the Middle East, while the Romanian would have plenty of time to organize a strong defence. Only a German-Italian intervention could solve the irritating Romanian problem.

Germany responded with reserve, telling the Italians they are fully engaged into establishing National-Socialist administration in Austria, and declaring war on Romania could attract an allied war declaration on Germany, which the country cannot afford. Importantly, Romania has promised to export much of its oil production to Germany, and declaring war on them now, could determine Bucharest to "radically destroy" its oil extraction installations, relegating any significant oil production in a very distant future. One way or another Germany cannot afford to start military operations in Romania, and advises Italy to not lose the English and French threat in the Mediterranean region out of sight. To the Soviets, Germany sent a clear message that a war against any Eastern European state would be seen as a hostile gesture against Germany. The Germans new there was no chance of a Romanian-Soviet rapprochement, and the general perception about Italy was that the Fascist regime is rather opportunistic, ready to betray any major power alliance, as it was about to do with the Allies whose formal partner bound by treaties still is. Therefore they preferred a profoundly anti-Communist and pushing back against Russian revolutionary expansionism regime in Bucharest, who generally quadrates with Germany's interests in spite of his ties to France, than a weakened possible frontline against the USSR.

In Paris and London Romania timely brought the Italian secret documents under the condition of complete discretion, thus softening an Allied response. With or without solid grounds to declare war, Romanian actions are raising many eyebrows in the democratic Western capitals. France new Yugoslavia was leaning toward the hostile Italy, and therefore hoped the Romanians would strengthen the Cordon Sanitaire, being at the same time aware of Romanian economic negotiations with Germany, maybe a bad omen for a fall into Germany's sphere of influence. Neither Paris nor Bucharest could afford straining too much their relations. Besides anyone knows the philo-French sentiments are very strong in Romania. French President Vincent Auriol also asked the Soviet allies to not intervene in any way against Romania because the country has solid grounds to act against the pro-fascist Yugoslav government in Belgrade. By now England and France know that a Romanian-Bulgarian war is inevitable. England secretly hopes the Italians would finally move their military might in or around South-Eastern Europe. This would significantly dent the Italian military and political pressure in the Mediterranean Sea, reducing the English costs of regional hegemony.

Seeing that military action against Romania was not feasible, and that Germany took Austria anyway, the Italians feared they would lose even more leverage in the negotiations with Germany. In exchange for a recognition of Italian supremacy over the whole mediterranean Sea, North and Central Africa and the Middle East plus Turkey the decided to join the Axis on 15 March 1938. They have also received German support for Italian historical claims of a few borders provinces with France, Yugoslavia and for Corsica.

Italy Joins the Axis on 15 March 1938

Back on the front Romanian is slowly building air superiority, but at high manpower and organising costs.


Aerial Batttles continue with high sacrifices, 15.03.1938

The northern army group attains unexpected victories taking Zagreb and enlarging the lines-exploitation, but cutting Western Yugoslavia from supplies is further out of sight.

In the center, the units as cautiously approaching Belgrade, preparing for encirclement. The Yugoslav forces are engaging Romanian divisions at critical points on all three frontlines, gaining by now a good image of the Romanian offensive plan.

With the surprise element over, the enemy tries to stalemate as much as possible. Serbia has imperatively asked Italy and Bulgaria to enter war against Romania, so that their nation can be saved. Rome promised relief encouraging them that the authorities are currently waging the war option, especially is another Major Power would be involved. The Bulgarian Head of State assured the Yugoslav Regent of being ready to attack Romania as soon as Italy or any other Major Power would do it. A lonely war of Minors against the northern neighbour is too much of a gamble though.

Frontline on 19.03.1938

Finally, on 25 March 1938, Romanians broke the Yugoslav resistance and effectively separated the three Yugoslav operation sections.

The northern Armies have also capturel Ljubljana, and were ordered to just keep the lines, because the main thrust will occur around Belgrade. The Tank division did move to take the Plit port against the superior's indications. That's a good decision in the end, depriving the Yugoslav Navy from their main supply base. In the South a new goal was set, to take the Macedonian province's capital Skopje.

Three Yugoslav army groups loose contact to each other, 25.03.1938

A nasty surprise cam on 30 March 1938 from Albania. Tirana decided to give military access to Yugoslavian troops. What an exercise in futility when the odds of war were so clearly against the Yugoslavians! King Carol II decided this affront was a good opportunity to end this Italian foothold in Western Balkans for good and declared war on Albania the very next day.

Albania pushed by Italy to side with Yugoslavia, 30.03.1938

On the same day began the final battle for the complete encirclement of the Yugoslav capital.
Belgrade almost surrounded, 30.03.1938

The next day Belgrade was surrounded and the siege order was immediately issued. The Royal Airforce entered action over Belgrade, but the bombardment campaign was interrupted by valiant Yugoslav defenders. The enemy has lost his Tactical bomber wing, but the anti-air installations in Belgrade are causing severe damage and disorganisation to Romanian air formations.

Belgrade Siege initiated on 31.03.1938, Aerial and Land battles

Amidst tensed economic negotiations going on since 22 March, Germany offered to send a large quantity of military supplies to Romania. This was accepted by the surprised Romanian government, who interpreted the gesture as a signal that Germany would not lightly take an aggression against Romania from other Powers.

First German open signal of support 31.03.1938

Belgrade capitulates on the 2 April 1938, and on 3 April at midnight hours accepts the annexation by Romania. The Yugoslav Royal Family with blood ties to the Romanian Royal Family, leaves Belgrade with the consent of the Romanian authorities by plane on the 4 of April, heading to Paris, and then to London.

Belgrade capitulates on 2 April 1938

A sort of autonomous Serbian collaboration government has been instituted to run former Yugoslav internal affairs, excluding though the participation of the Fascist Croat militarised movement, a staunch ally of Mussolini's government. Shortly after the defeat of Yugoslavia, the Croat Fascists started a terrorist campaign against Serbian newly established authorities and the Romanian military presence, with full Italian support, as they did in the past against Yugoslavia. Consequently, Romania pledged to instruct Military Police and Garrison forces and place them in the main urban centres to combat the Croat separatists.

In the near future the two cavalry divisions will be retreated from frontline operations to serve exclusively in fighting off revolts in occupied territories in former Hungary and Yugoslavia.

Last but not least, General's @Bullfilter advice was considered of never again starting war operations before all army units reach their designated offensive positions.

Yugoslavia Annexed by Romania on 3 April 1938

Albania was also annexed on 8 April, after the 1sr Mountaineer division reached Tirana. Bucharest had at this point to lift war time laws, under the pressure of the Parliament's political parties.

Albania Conquered on 8 April 1938

 

[Bullfilter]

Well, the campaign was successful in the end and seemed to go pretty well. The advice about these attacks on unmobilised countries is really just so you can get the most out of that initial period where their units are so organisationally weak. Unless there’s some urgent imperative to attack them for other reasons, anyway.

Looks like those Bulgarians will be next to pay the price for their insolence. Then the easy targets will have been used up. After that, waiting for events and diplomacy to take hold for Axis alignment? A campaign to take Greece (usually quite a tough fight)? Building the armed forces for a fight against the Soviets?

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Looks like those Bulgarians will be next to pay the price for their insolence. Then the easy targets will have been used up. After that, waiting for events and diplomacy to take hold for Axis alignment? A campaign to take Greece (usually quite a tough fight)? Building the armed forces for a fight against the Soviets?

Bulgaria is certainly easy enough to justify an incursion against, since they too have made threats against Romanian territorial integrity. Greece would be a much larger stretch, especially for this Romania which though more aggressive than OTL seems fairly set on maintaining a certain degree of reasonableness in her actions. I think the next threat to consider has to be the Soviets, as their claims on Bessarabia are not going to go away so easily as the "beat the snot out of them" method will not work here. I'd suggest investing in a line of border forts along the Soviet border, since Romania does need to conserve MP and not just build many divisions.

 

[stnylan]

Pretty decent campaign - and yes Bulgaria should not prove too troublesome. Heading into Greece or Turkey?

 

[Alex Kernel]

Hello friends,

sorry to inform you, that I did it again! While trying to create historically more appropriate war goals for Romania, I have replaced the second region.txt file with the first one without saving the former in the original form. Impossible to repair game errors resulted, which forced me to reinstall, thereby forgetting to save separately the modded files for the country!!!

Now I will need a week (or two) to recreate the stronger Minor Power Romania as it was and to start all over again! All the policies and actions will be identical, to keep with the script... I feel really stupid right now.

Meanwhile, I can describe how far the game was and we could have a deeper discussion about the aligning and alliance options this country has. Also, I intend to test France to see if it stands any chance against the Germans and Italians. Or would you prefer me to test France while writing a dedicated AAR?

Well, the campaign was successful in the end and seemed to go pretty well. The advice about these attacks on unmobilised countries is really just so you can get the most out of that initial period where their units are so organisationally weak. Unless there’s some urgent imperative to attack them for other reasons, anyway.

Looks like those Bulgarians will be next to pay the price for their insolence. Then the easy targets will have been used up. After that, waiting for events and diplomacy to take hold for Axis alignment? A campaign to take Greece (usually quite a tough fight)? Building the armed forces for a fight against the Soviets?

In a nutshell, the Bulgarians fought pretty well from the beginning, making me wonder if they hadn't mobilised while Romania DOWed Yugoslavia. The campaign against Greece went really good against expectations until the Sea battles, which lasted for a full extra month. After this did my game crash due to my unsecured experiments with the code. Descriptions will follow to keep you busy , while tinkering with the code, again .

The really interesting thing about the Greece campaign was testing another battle strategy than the classic encirclement one. The approach was to apply pressure in waves on the frontline, so the Greek army cannot regroup in those mountainous regions.

Pretty decent campaign - and yes Bulgaria should not prove too troublesome. Heading into Greece or Turkey?

Thanks, Greece is next. Turkey might be spared.

Bulgaria is certainly easy enough to justify an incursion against, since they too have made threats against Romanian territorial integrity. Greece would be a much larger stretch, especially for this Romania which though more aggressive than OTL seems fairly set on maintaining a certain degree of reasonableness in her actions. I think the next threat to consider has to be the Soviets, as their claims on Bessarabia are not going to go away so easily as the "beat the snot out of them" method will not work here. I'd suggest investing in a line of border forts along the Soviet border, since Romania does need to conserve MP and not just build many divisions.

What is OTL? Ha, ha, "Beating the snot out of them" is a fine description of what happened . You're right attacking Greece, or Turkey would make the scenario historically unplausible. My difficulty rests in the desperate need for more Leadership. And, conquering Greece give me approx. 1 extra Leadership plus a modest MP increase. Besides being highly phantastical, an invasion of Turkey does bring too much headache because Romania will have to secure a very large frontline with SOV, by resorting to extra MTN divisions, which are very expensive in MPs. This in return would negatively impact my campaign through South Ukraine towards Caucasus...

The second issue you mentioned raises the question of foreign policy options for Romania. From my perspective Romania has three options, whereby Bessarabia is always the main national stake:

1. It joins the Axis (for tangible benefits), and attacks the Soviet Union for Bessarabia, and more.
2. It stays neutral (for other tangible benefits like trade with the Allies and avoiding a two fronts war), but it does attack USSR along the Axis for the same province.
3. It stays neutral, and joins the Allies as soon as possible. In this case the war with the Soviets is also inevitable, but much later (Yes, if needed I will set the endgame in 1999 ).

In the 1stscenario, should Axis lose, Romania is doomed.
The 3rd scenario is the most challenging one because Romania has to choose the right moment of entering war, since the accession to the Western Alliance would bring her automatically to war with the Axis, long before even thinking of conflict with the Soviets. Should the soviets become too powerful, I wonder if the incompetent Allied AI would be able to push against the Russians across Western Europe, and if they would support Romania's defensive lines with actual troops...

Romania has no easy exit from this tumult.

A third question is did you ever experience Germany AI defeating the Soviet AI? In my games, Germany inevitably loses steam by 1943, even if Japan keeps the Allies busy across South East Asia, Italy seals the Mediterranean, Romania is successful in southern Russia and the Allies repeatedly fail to land on the European continent...

P.S. Does anyone know how to write a working war goal?

 

[Bullfilter]

Hello friends,

sorry to inform you, that I did it again! While trying to create historically more appropriate war goals for Romania, I have replaced the second region.txt file with the first one without saving the former in the original form. Impossible to repair game errors resulted, which forced me to reinstall, thereby forgetting to save separately the modded files for the country!!!

Now I will need a week to recreate the stronger Minor Power Romania as it was and to start all over again! All the policies and actions will be identical, to keep with the script... I feel really stupid right now.

Meanwhile, I can describe how far the game was and we could have a deeper discussion about the aligning and alliance options this country has. Also, I intend to test France to see if it stands any chance against the Germans and Italians. Or would you prefer me to test France while writing a dedicated AAR?




In a nutshell, the Bulgarians fought pretty well from the beginning, making me wonder if they hadn't mobilised while Romania DOWed Yugoslavia. The campaign against Greece went really good against expectations until the Sea battles, which lasted for a full extra month. After this did my game crash due to my unsecured experiments with the code. Descriptions will follow to keep you busy , while tinkering with the code, again .

The really interesting thing about the Greece campaign was testing another battle strategy than the classic encirclement one. The approach was to apply pressure in waves on the frontline, so the Greek army cannot regroup in those mountainous regions.



Thanks, Greece is next. Turkey might be spared.



What is OTL? Ha, ha, "Beating the snot out of them" is a fine description of what happened . You're right attacking Greece, or Turkey would make the scenario historically unplausible. My difficulty rests in the desperate need for more Leadership. And, conquering Greece give me approx. 1 extra Leadership plus a modest MP increase. Besides being highly phantastical, an invasion of Turkey does bring too much headache because Romania will have to secure a very large frontline with SOV, by resorting to extra MTN divisions, which are very expensive in MPs. This in return would negatively impact my campaign through South Ukraine towards Caucasus...

The second issue you mentioned raises the question of foreign policy options for Romania. From my perspective Romania has three options, whereby Bessarabia is always the main national stake:

1. It joins the Axis (for tangible benefits), and attacks the Soviet Union for Bessarabia, and more.
2. It stays neutral (for other tangible benefits like trade with the Allies and avoiding a two fronts war), but it does attack USSR along the Axis for the same province.
3. It stays neutral, and joins the Allies as soon as possible. In this case the war with the Soviets is also inevitable, but much later (Yes, if needed I will set the endgame in 1999 ).

In the 1stscenario, should Axis lose, Romania is doomed.
The 3rd scenario is the most challenging one because Romania has to choose the right moment of entering war, since the accession to the Western Alliance would bring her automatically to war with the Axis, long before even thinking of conflict with the Soviets. Should the soviets become too powerful, I wonder if the incompetent Allied AI would be able to push against the Russians across Western Europe, and if they would support Romania's defensive lines with actual troops...

Romania has no easy exit from this tumult.

A third question is did you ever experience Germany AI defeating the Soviet AI? In my games, Germany inevitably looses steam by 1943, even if Japan keeps the Allies busy across South East Asia, Italy seals the Mediterranean, Romania is successful in the southern Russia and the Allies repeatedly fail to land on the European continent...

My sympathy for your save game troubles: one of the pitfalls of modding, alas. On Germany vs USSR: yes, I’ve seen Germany win quite a few times, especially when Japan goes big against the Soviets in the Far East. But you’re right, they want to have won it before the bottom falls out in 1943.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Sorry to hear of your game difficulties. Best of luck bringing everything back up to speed!

A third question is did you ever experience Germany AI defeating the Soviet AI? In my games, Germany inevitably looses steam by 1943, even if Japan keeps the Allies busy across South East Asia, Italy seals the Mediterranean, Romania is successful in the southern Russia and the Allies repeatedly fail to land on the European continent...

In vanilla TFH I have never seen Germany even make historical progress against the Soviets, let alone defeat them. I'll sometimes see them manage to take Leningrad as the Soviet AI never holds it very well, but usually Germany only gets within a few hundred km of Moscow and progresses hardly at all in the south. With mods of course there is some leeway to change this (I believe the HPP mod actually has modifiers to boost the Soviets as they struggle with Germany, though I've never seen this happen in my own games) but with vanilla there's not a lot the German AI can do. They are pretty scripted to lose after about 1943 as Paradox took the lazy way of balancing Germany and just had them run out of MP at around that time, at which point the Soviets can simply push the battered shells of Germany divisions all the way to the Atlantic without difficulty.

I do recall that in older, less "balanced" versions of the game, the Barbarossa front was more dynamic and challenging. For example, "The Great Patriotic War" by loki100 in the SF days was quite a thriller although some human intervention was needed to help the German AI stay afloat in later years. However, in those days both German and Soviet MP was at a premium, so balancing reinforcement and new unit needs was indeed a dynamic challenge.

 

[Alex Kernel]

In vanilla TFH I have never seen Germany even make historical progress against the Soviets, let alone defeat them. I'll sometimes see them manage to take Leningrad as the Soviet AI never holds it very well, but usually Germany only gets within a few hundred km of Moscow and progresses hardly at all in the south. With mods of course there is some leeway to change this.

Is there any mode making Germany a better opponent to the Soviet Union, so that the battle of the giants is well balanced?

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Is there any mode making Germany a better opponent to the Soviet Union, so that the battle of the giants is well balanced?

Not without a bit of modding, either the save file or adding modifiers. I do suggest keeping an eye on Germany's MP and gifting them some more when they get low, at least the first couple of times. Say, 500 when they first dip below 100, and maybe another 500 if the Soviets start to get close to Berlin to make sure the AI is at least putting up a fight.

Otherwise, just try to use the might of Romania as well as possible to push the front forward and if worst comes to worst, a good drawn-out inevitable defeat is always an AAR worth reading, as Lord El Pip has shown with his Slovakia AAR.

 

[roverS3]

Very interesting developments here. The rapid conquest of Yugoslavia, and the surprise annexation of Albania. Striking first while they're still getting organised, and picking off enemies one by one is the way to go. The diplomatic background of rapprochement to Germany in order to avoid both German and Soviet meddling in the area is a nice touch. The nuances of Romanian political aims and German economic ones, as well as the underlying Italian-German struggle over influence and control of the Balkans and of Romanian oil add to the beautiful tapestry of competing interests which, when well understood, and expertly navigated, allowed for Romania to effectively take control of the Balkans, unimpeded by any Major power.

Your short aside on the historical situation was educative, the specific history of Romania in the second world war wasn't really discussed during my secondary education, short of the mention that Antonescu's Romania fought the Soviets alongside the Axis, and that the country was later reformed as a Communist dictatorship, part of the Warsaw pact. (OTL means 'Our Time Line', the timeline we live in, and thus the way things happened historically, as opposed to 'TTL', 'This Time Line', that of the AAR, or 'ATL' 'Alternate Time Line')

The atrocities against Jews during that period were widespread and regrettable. I'm glad you mentioned them, as some governments and individuals attempt, or have attempted, to wash their country, or it's people from these crimes. (The Polish government's recent revisionism in this area is particularly problematic)
In most, if not all, German occupied countries, including my own, local civilians and officials helped the Germans to round up Jews. Of course, other locals hid Jews from prosecution and/or offered them a way out. In Belgium several local police forces assisted the Germans in locating local Jews in arresting them, and in bringing them to the trains which would take them on a one way trip to the camps in the east.

The best chance we have for something like this to never happen again in Europe is to look squarely into the face of history, and remember what happened the last time people considered a particular group of people less than human, and the source of all of their problems.

As you're probably aware, Jews in the Soviet Union were also targeted in pogroms and deportations (no death camps, only gulags), so I'm sure those Romanian Jews who supported the Soviet take-over of Bessarabia soon found out just how hospitable the Soviet Union was for them. Tragically ironic, really.

I'm sorry you had another save-game issue, but I'm sure you'll get back up to speed in no time. I'm looking forward to what comes next, and how Romania continues to navigate the diplomatic landscape in the run-up to the war.

 

[Bullfilter]

Not without a bit of modding, either the save file or adding modifiers. I do suggest keeping an eye on Germany's MP and gifting them some more when they get low, at least the first couple of times. Say, 500 when they first dip below 100, and maybe another 500 if the Soviets start to get close to Berlin to make sure the AI is at least putting up a fight.

Otherwise, just try to use the might of Romania as well as possible to push the front forward and if worst comes to worst, a good drawn-out inevitable defeat is always an AAR worth reading, as Lord El Pip has shown with his Slovakia AAR.

As @nuclearslurpee says, if MP becomes an issue it would be a very simple save game edit to give them more. Otherwise, as I mentioned at first, I’ve seen AI Germany take down the Soviets more than once. With you helping as a human-run and powerful Romania, I’d say the chances would be very good indeed.

To give a couple of examples from my experience, I once played years back as an Axis-aligned Turkey. Helped them by attacking through the Caucasus but they did most of the work. And in my France AAR game, although I held out as France and eventually took the Germans down, even with that handicap of a two-front war from 1939, they had still made big inroads into Russia. And if Japan attacks (which they did in that game) then it’s the Soviets with a nasty two-front war.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Thank you all, for your solidary feedback! It feels like you're a tightly knitted community, and I'm glad to join you.

On Germany vs USSR

On Germany vs USSR: yes, I’ve seen Germany win quite a few times, especially when Japan goes big against the Soviets in the Far East. But you’re right, they want to have won it before the bottom falls out in 1943.

In vanilla TFH I have never seen Germany even make historical progress against the Soviets, let alone defeat them. I'll sometimes see them manage to take Leningrad

As @nuclearslurpee says, if MP becomes an issue it would be a very simple save game edit to give them more. Otherwise, as I mentioned at first, I’ve seen AI Germany take down the Soviets more than once. With you helping as a human-run and powerful Romania, I’d say the chances would be very good indeed.

To give a couple of examples from my experience, I once played years back as an Axis-aligned Turkey. Helped them by attacking through the Caucasus but they did most of the work. And in my France AAR game, although I held out as France and eventually took the Germans down, even with that handicap of a two-front war from 1939, they had still made big inroads into Russia. And if Japan attacks (which they did in that game) then it’s the Soviets with a nasty two-front war.

There might be a correlation between improved German victory odds and Japan DOWing on USSR. That is Germany has a chance to win if (1) Japan fares well against the Allies, and (2) Japan DOWs Comintern. In my games, which are admittedly few, Japan didn't DOW USSR, but I have seen a couple AARs where it did. Probably there is a moderate probability in any game that Japan will do it.

Not without a bit of modding, either the save file or adding modifiers. I do suggest keeping an eye on Germany's MP and gifting them some more when they get low, at least the first couple of times. Say, 500 when they first dip below 100, and maybe another 500 if the Soviets start to get close to Berlin to make sure the AI is at least putting up a fight.

Otherwise, just try to use the might of Romania as well as possible to push the front forward and if worst comes to worst, a good drawn-out inevitable defeat is always an AAR worth reading, as Lord El Pip has shown with his Slovakia AAR.

What brings Russia back on its feet is the Great Patriotic War event - triggered when Russia loses 15% of its provinces according to a forumer assertion - whose effects are +20% manpower modifier and a +25% territorial pride (whatever that is), shorter production time, extra IC (not sure about these two) and a mind-boggling +3500 MP. Compounding the blow of this massive boost is the fact that the 15% of Russian provinces occupied by the Axis are mostly worthless, containing insignificant IC, MP, Leadership, and resources. Another issue that I observed as a Romanian ally of Germany is that beyond Poland the Soviet provinces have poor infrastructure, which brings those motorised and armour divisions soon into difficulty due to supply shortages. Last not but least, the AI is not able to organise large encirclement operations. After the first 6 months of war this transforms the war into a MP grinder, whereby Russia has superior MP recruitment.

That is why, even a realistically stronger modded Romania is often not enough to win the Anti-Soviet war. Indeed, a Japan DOW on the Soviet Union might upset the Pro-Soviet balance of power.

Several ways to bring more equilibrium into this equation would be:

- to suddenly "discover" tungsten reserves in the German Alps. Don't laugh at this. This strategic resource would give +15% hard attack, corresponding to Germany's superior armour and armour personnel competency during the first half of the war. See hier the list of strategic resources: https://hoi3.paradoxwikis.com/Strategic_resources. Tungsten/Wolfram was very important for the German armour production, and the country had access to the Swedish Tungsten mines. Sweden played the neutrality card, but it shared Germany's, Romania's and Finland's discountenance of the Communist revolutionary dictatorship model and the fear of Communist Russia's expansionism towards their borders. I did test in some older game saves, which were not affected by my recent war goals modding failure, what strategic resources were available to Berlin during the war with the Soviets, and Tungsten is not amongst them.
- when the Great Patriotic War occurs, or later when the German MP dips below 100, or when the frontline stalls, Germany and Romania could trigger a similar event awarding them a one-off MP boost based on the population Ratio between the Soviets and their enemies. Around 1939 SOV had over 168 Million people, Germany 69 Million, Romania 20 Million, Hungary another 8 Million, and Finland 3,7 Million. Italy and Bulgaria participated only marginally on the Eastern Front. Thus, If Russia gains 3500 MP with the Great Patriotic War, Germany should also get 1435 MP, Romania 416 MP, and Hungary 166 MP. In-game should suffice for Germany 1.000 MP?

Does Germany has some kind of Great Patriotic War event in real history/OTL and in-game?

What is your opinion on these methods? Should we test none, one, or both of them?

@nuclearslurpee, you're right, "a good drawn-out inevitable defeat is always an AAR worth reading". I will do just that, if the war goes wrong.

The diplomatic background of rapprochement to Germany in order to avoid both German and Soviet meddling in the area is a nice touch. The nuances of Romanian political aims and German economic ones, as well as the underlying Italian-German struggle over influence and control of the Balkans and of Romanian oil add to the beautiful tapestry of competing interests which, when well understood, and expertly navigated, allowed for Romania to effectively take control of the Balkans, unimpeded by any Major power.

Nice to see you appreciate the "tapestry of interests", which actually shows why and how did the historical Romania join the Axis, what problems where all the Cordon Sanitaire states confronted with, and, of course how they allowed Romania to overtake the Balkans without Major Powers' counter-reaction.

The next round of economic and political negotiations, which historically took place in 1939-early 1940 is further revealing the nature of the German-Romanian relationship.

As you're probably aware, Jews in the Soviet Union were also targeted in pogroms and deportations (no death camps, only gulags), so I'm sure those Romanian Jews who supported the Soviet take-over of Bessarabia soon found out just how hospitable the Soviet Union was for them. Tragically ironic, really.

It emerged later that Stalin together with many others communists at the head of the Soviet Union had the same repulsion and prejudices against the Jews, as Hitler did. By the way the Gulags where very similar to death camps, only the Western political correctness impeding the truth to be told. Not only the jews fell victims of Russian repression and genocidal behaviour.

Some historians attempted to make separate estimates for different periods of Soviet history, with casualty estimates varying widely from 20 million to 61 million for the period 1917-1987 deaths from repression.

The Soviet government during Joseph Stalin's rule conducted a series of deportations on an enormous scale that significantly affected the ethnic map of the Soviet Union. Deportations took place under extremely harsh conditions, often in cattle carriages, with hundreds of thousands of deportees dying en route. Some experts estimate that the proportion of deaths from the deportations could be as high as one in three in certain cases. The majority of the deportees where ethnic minorities, and the vast majority of the individuals in Gulags died as a result of forced work, summary executions, malnutrition, disease, torture. Many of the remaining survivors were not allowed to come back from Siberia.

The secret service NKVD has also killed by execution hundreds of thousands to millions of people, especially ethnic minorities with well defined non-Russian national identity, where by it is well documented the execution of 111.000 Poles during the 1930s. This amounts to genocide. Only for that decade it is considered NKVD has arrested a total of 350,000 people, and another 247,157 were executed.

Another major genocidal act perpetrated by the Soviets was the man-made famine of 1932-1933, which targeted especially ethnicities with
rising national identity, mainly Ukrainians and Kazachs. USSR has confiscated all the cereals and bovines in Soviet Ukraine, Noth Causcasus and Kazachstan, sold the production to the USA, and nationalised (collectivisation) the entire farmland. All the peasants who tried to hide food items in their homes where summarily executed by NKVD together with their families and any transport of food supplies to the affected regions was halted. The result was mass starvation becoming a famine-genocide where between 4 and 10 Million of Ukrainians and 1,5 Million of ethnic Kazachs (amounting to 38% of the indigenous population) were deliberately killed.

During and after WWII hundreds of thousands of ethnic Romanians from Bessarabia were killed or send to gulags to never return, also representing 1/4 of the total population.

The Russian historians do not deny these and many other murderous events, which make the Nazi atrocities pale by comparison, but are trying several lines of defence.

1) They maintain that millions of ethnic Russians designated as "enemy of the people" where killed as well by the Bolshevik regime, and therefore the Soviet mass repression was not nationalistic in nature and didn't target people according to their nationality. True, millions of Russians were killed or deported as part of terror campaigns, but that cannot obscure the fact that the vast majority of these genocidal "cleansings" were directed towards ethnic minorities.
2) Other historians attempted to say that the casualties from Soviet repression spanned over 70 years, making a ratio per year with the Nazi crimes slightly "better" for the USSR. The implication is the Nazis where still the bad guys, and the Soviets so and so (relativisation attempt). One can judge for himself what kind of defence o a criminal regime this might be...
3) Russian historians are trying to downplay the deliberate character of the 1932-1933 famine against Ukraininans, by claiming the famine was the unintended result of socialist reforms (collectivization) and a bad agricultural year in 1932. Why then, would one ask, did the Soviet authorities confiscate the food reserves of the people, and restricted the movement of the population in the affected area to prevent them from going to regions of Russia not affected by famine. What about the NKVD home to home perquisitions, and executions of those who managed to keep some foodstuff for their survival... If the USSR lacked cereals for the Ukrainians, why did at the exact same time export huge quantities of cereals to the US market? Is this not proof of criminal intent?

It is difficult to grasp, why to the contemporary history, the Socialist Soviet and Nazi mass murders and ethnic cleansing are not placed on the same level of crimes against humanity and recognised as equally criminal despicable regimes, guilty of genocide. Why does the USSR receive this Nazi/Facist liberator aura, when they only replaced an abusive domination regime in Europe with their own occupation and abusive domination regime, which in many respects for Eastern Europe was way worse than the Nazi hegemony before?

P.S. The modding advances at rapid pace, and by Friday it should be over! I will also try these days to insert here a next chapter on the German-Romanian negotiations.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

- when the Great Patriotic War occurs, or later when the German MP dips below 100, or when the frontline stalls, Germany and Romania could trigger a similar event awarding them a one-off MP boost based on the population Ratio between the Soviets and their enemies. Around 1939 SOV had over 168 Million people, Germany 69 Million, Romania 20 Million, Hungary another 8 Million, and Finland 3,7 Million. Italy and Bulgaria participated only marginally on the Eastern Front. Thus, If Russia gains 3500 MP with the Great Patriotic War, Germany should also get 1435 MP, Romania 416 MP, and Hungary 166 MP. In-game should suffice for Germany 1.000 MP?

This seems eminently reasonable to me!

In real life, no country had a "manpower shortage" in the sense of being entirely unable to reinforce their divisions. Rather, manpower problems took the form of (1) lacking trained soldiers and having to replace them with minimally-trained conscripts, and (2) having to take people out of the factories to conscript them. Vanilla HoI3 completely ignores this in favor of just having AI Germany collapse in mid-1943 when their MP runs out, but mods often have events that give the needed MP to keep going in exchange for severe training and industry penalties, which I much prefer. In any case, the moral of the story here is that vanilla is a kludge, Paradox and historical accuracy will never been used in the same sentence, and you should address the problem in whatever manner you deem balanced and historical.

Does Germany has some kind of Great Patrootic War event in real history/OTL and in-game?

Germany gets some modifier, I think it's called "Destiny" at the start of Barbarossa, which lasts for about 6 months and is responsible for most of the initial push into Russia. If they don't win in those 6 months, they lose the modifier and the Soviets get their GPW modifiers, usually meaning Germany gets pushed back, and once those modifiers all expire the front stabilizes for a year or two until Germany runs out of MP.

I believe BlackICE has additional modifiers that continue after this which model e.g. the 1942 German offensive that reached Stalingrad and the Caucasus or the 1943 Soviet counteroffensives, but vanilla lacks any of these.