Between Axis and Comintern: Romanian Survival (During Action Report)

[Alex Kernel]

Second Round of Economic and Political Negotiations with Germany

With the negotiations on 12 May 1938 Germany launched a diplomatic offensive meant to consolidate its position in Romanian economy and to ensure its monopoly over the exports of Romanian petroleum. After the first economic agreement the Reich expected to import 400.000 tons of oil per month, but Romania delivered an astounding quantity of… 61 tons per month (OTL occurrence with changed months to pass to our scenario). At the root of this outcome stays, the Germans believed, the fact that the majority of Romania’s oil industry is in Allied hands. According to their information, Bucharest did provide the administrative and economic conditions for redirecting exports to Germany, but the foreign owners apparently refused to sell their fossil products to Axis countries. Is there a deliberate Anglo-French policy to frustrate Germany’s interests in an area of great interest?

In 1937 the percentage of investment in the Romanian oil industry was:
- British 40%;
- Romanian 29%;
- French-Belgian 23%;
- American 6%;
- Italian 2%;
- others 0,8%.

The fifth oil producer in the world, following the US, USSR, Venezuela and Iran, Romania produced in 1936 approx. 8,7 million tons of oil, which could cover at least 40% of the German needs for economy and long term war operations combined. Beside oil, Germany was interested among other product types in importing cereals, of which Romania was also one of the top world exporters, and certain ores (rare materials).

When Marshall Göring and the German Foreign Minister Baron Konstantin von Neurath received the Romanian counterparts, Mr. Grigore Gafencu and general Victor Antonescu, the negotiations were scheduled on a dual track: economic and political.

The economic negotiations were way more extensive than those from March 1938, whereby obtaining the monopoly over the Romanian oil industry was the undissimulated main focus. Berlin insisted on establishing some “German economic units in Romania, which would produce goods necessary to Germany and export them on the German market, on the creation of “mixed” economic companies or “free [economic] zones” in ports.

The position of the Romanian side towards the pretentions of the Germans was specified in the counterproposals presented on 14 May 1938. The document did not conceal the fact that the German draft exceeded, through its easily foreseen consequences, the “strictly economic framework” of the negotiations and insisted to ensure “the economic independence of Romania” and, implicitly, the political one. Premier Armand Călinescu grasped on the previous day the essence of the negotiations: “There occurs a problem between us and Germany. As objectives and purposes, the following: The issue has a double aspect: political and economic. The economic is important and decisive, while the political is accessory and an element of blackmail. That is the case for the Germans. We want to ensure our frontiers and we are paying for it.”

Whereas Germany sought to ensure for itself the energy resources for a long term war, Romania was following a policy of (geopolitical) realities and one of supporting its Eastern European allies, Poland and Czechoslovakia, by looking for a cooperative relationship with Germany and attracting Allied investment, and military and political commitment. As an effect of the increase of Germany’s role in East-Central Europe, as well as following the concessions policy made by Paris and London since Locarno, Romania had to give a great deal of importance to the specification of its relations with the Third Reich. The pervasive fear among much of Bucharest’s political class was that when and if Germany would ask for the rectification of its Eastern borders, the entire region could be destabilised by war and invasions, whereby Stalin’s Soviet Union was skulking for its chance to invade from the East too. The limits of the initiated negotiations for the Romanian delegation were set by King Carol II in accordance with economic and military circles in government in one sentence: “We shall not throw ourselves in the arms of Germany”.

The coming days tensed negotiations took place, the German negotiators resorting to certain pressures in order to make the Romanian side “more understanding”. As it was well known, harshness was one of the common procedures of the Nazi Reich, being also felt during the negotiations with the Romanian delegation. The Minister of Economy and Public Works I. Bujoiu, referring to the German proposal to create “economic units with [exclusive] German capital in Romania”, found it inadmissible, pointing out that in consequence the country would be reduced to the situation of “simple supplier of labor force, its natural resources and its production possibilities serving exclusively to the satisfaction of German needs”. Another fact one needs to consider is that during negotiations Göring and Baron Konstantin von Neurath fully profited from the advantage gained by the Reich through the engagement of nearly all Romanian troops in Bulgaria and the fresh Romanian – German direct border after the Austrian Anschluss.

The Economic Agreement, which from then on would be the base of the relations between the two countries, was intensely negotiated for three weeks, but it had to await one more week for the complicated political agreement to be ready as well.

The German-Romanian treaty, concluded for a period of five years, had in view an economic plan meant to maintain “the equilibrium of economic exchanges”, taking in consideration both Germany’s import necessities, as well as the development possibilities of Romanian production, Romania’s internal needs and its needs of economic exchanges with other countries (Article I, in OTL). The plan operated in several areas:

· the development and the orientation of Romanian agricultural production (German export of agricultural machinery and motorisation);
· the development of existing agricultural industries and the creation of new ones;
· the forest field (Romanian exports of wood);
· the deliveries of machinery and equipment for the Romanian mining industry (Germany needed to import coal and rare ores, part of them being extracted from Romanian mines. Tungsten was not among them, this metal only being present in Norway.);
· the founding of mixed companies for the capitalization of certain ores (direct investments);
· the collaboration of industrial field (investments and civil technology transfer);
· the creation of “free [economic] zones” (yes, some liberal policies iare not an anglo-saxon invention);
· deliveries of weapons and equipment for the Romanian army and war industry;
· the construction of certain equipments of public utility;
· the collaboration of certain Romanian and German banks for the interests of both countries, especially in the direction of business financing;
· “the founding of a mixed Romanian-German company that will deal with the exploitation of petroleum and the execution of a program of drilling and treating of crude oil”.

Two governmental committees were formed for the realisation of the various common projects. Provided the treaty was not denounced until May 15, 1943, it will be prolonged for an indefinite period of time (article V, OTL, only the original date being March 31, 1944).

In parallel with the economic negotiations General Victor Antonescu was received by Marshal Göring, a few days later being invited to a private discussion with Hitler. The Nazi leaders appreciated Antonescu, a military man with a high sense of honour with nationalist-conservative views, very much, which made the political negotiations smoother than otherwise. The German side wanted Romania to renounce the Allied security guarantees and anchor itself in the German sphere of influence, not just economically but also politically. Antonescu repeated the Romanian request for German security guarantees for Romania’s eastern borders instead. The Germans replied they are not ready for a full blown war against the Soviets, should they invade Bessarabia and therefore such guarantees are not feasible for the time being, but added, they would do their best to discourage the Russians from doing so before anything happens. That’s not enough, was the assessment of the Romanian government.

Another issue was Germany’s complains about Romania acting against other countries without consulting with Berlin, which will become very important once the two states will be allied or at least have close economic and political relations. The under-tone was Romania has finally to acknowledge it had entered the German sphere of influence, whether it likes it or not.

Negotiations with Italy under arbitration threats

The third major point of negotiations was Hitler’s imperious demand for an Italian-Romanian political treaty meant to definitively reconcile the two powers. The parties must negotiate a solution, including territorial concessions from the Romanian side, since Bucharest controls territories in Balkans, which Rome regards as part of their traditional sphere of interest. Should Italy and Romania fail to find a political agreement for their disputes, the Führer threatened the latter with arbitration made by itself.

King Carol II was terribly unnerved by the brazen threat, but conceded that the highest interests of his country dictated him to accept negotiations with Italy. In an act of defiance, Benito Mussolini sent his Foreign Minister Gian Galeazzo Ciano on 20 May 1938 to Berlin instead to Bucharest, to meet the Romanian delegation there. Essentially Italy was pleased with Romania ceding seven former Yugoslav provinces with majoritarian or significant Italian population and of economic significance. Among them were two major urban centres, namely Ljubljana and Split (also a port). In return Italy has relinquished its claims on Albania and recognized Romanian occupation of Hungary and Yugoslavia. Romania recognized Italian hegemony rights over the Mediterranean Sea and the adjacent zones except Greece. Foreign Minister Ciano insisted Greece is one of their special interest zones, asking Romania to explicitly stay out of it. Antonescu retorted that after the Italian attempt to dismember Romania with the help from Bulgaria and Yugoslavia, there is no way to accept the risk of Italian military bases in Greece ready to start another offensive against Romania whenever the fascist government of Mussolini wishes so. The Italian delegation underlined that the Romanian alignment with the Axis sealed by treaties excludes such a scenario and that they want to use Greece to better control the Mediterranean against British Navy as well as a logistical node towards hegemony in Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Middle East. Italy already owns the Dodecanese Greek islands in the Mediterranean, which suffices for their power projection plans, with a considerable less threat factor for the security of Romania. General Antonescu made it clear, the occupation of Greece entails an intrinsic element of blackmail that his country is never going to accept. Should Italy not refrain from its plans in Greece, Romania will not cede to Italy any territory in former Yugoslavia.
Italian Dodecanese Islands on the lower right corner

Given the appeared deadlock in this atmosphere of distrust, Ciano asked Benito Mussolini what he prefers: Hitler’s arbitration, or signing an Agreement with Romania, thereby leaving Greece aside. Il Doce consulted Hitler on the issue. The Führer adviced him not to resort to arbitration, because an arbitration against Romanian interests could derail Romania from its pro-Axis course at a moment when Germany seeks to secure the access to Romanian oil production without risking an all-out war with the Allies (France had given security guarantees to Romania in the early 1920s). Consequently Ciano returned to the negotiaton table and in a short time the parties agreed to respect Greece’s neutrality declared by the right-wing authoritarian Metaxas Regime established since August 1936. Additionally Romania committed not to develop a substantial maritime fleet that could one day challenge Italian dominance over the Mediterranean. On the economic level, Romania promised to open its market to investments at the same preferential conditions that the German companies will enjoy after the signing of the presently negotiated comprehensive economic agreement. As a last point, Italy has promised to sell armament, especially bombers and artillery, and licences to Romania. Both countries agreed to add a non-aggression clause to the bilateral Treaty to be signed concomittently with the Anti-Copmintern Pact with the Axis powers.

Concluding results
Meanwhile, Germany insists Romania should enter an open political alliance, but it is reluctant to give security guarantees on the border with the Soviets. Romania wants those guarantees, but it is reluctant to leave the Allied security guarantees, because this way, foresaw the political factors in Bucharest, it potentially risks a two-front war with the Allies and the Soviet Union in case Germany enters war with the Allies or both. Germany reassured the Romanian delegation that a two-front war will be avoided at all costs, but the latter remained unconvinced and also fearful of the economic consequences from a decoupling from the international markets and access to capital in case of a new Axis-Allies conflict. After three days and nights of intensive negotiations Romania agreed to secretly join the Anti-Comintern Pact, under the express condition that the Romanian, Italian and German obligations regard only a defensive alliance against the Soviet Union, should one of the parties come under attack. In case the Axis would enter conflict with the Allies, Romania will declare neutrality, no matter who attacks whom.

The German-Italian-Romanian economic and political Treaty and the Anti-Comintern accession were signed on the June 1, 1938. At the conclusion of the Treaty, Grigore Gafencu affirmed that the document, in its general lines, affected the area of economic collaboration with a view to the “satisfaction of the German-Romanian complementary interests, which have always been so important”. He insisted on the fact that each of the signatories expressed “the pacifist purposes” of their policy”, reasserting that the respect of national independence represented the supreme ideal for all the European countries”. The diplomatic language in the treaty and the discourse of the Romanian Foreign Minister represented to a certain extent a subtle attempt to nudge Germany away from aggressive solutions to its eastern borders claims, or generally against touching the Cordon Sanitaire status-quo. It was doubtful though that Germany would be inclined to lend an ear to a lesser power like Romania in this issue, irrespective of how the diplomatic language of the Agreement was formulated.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Romania expertly takes advantage of a diplomatic opening to take over Bulgaria with only minimal repercussions.

The effort is to construct a reasonably plausible scenario, starting as much as possible from real events.

Romanian diplomats really are in a class of their own, finding just the right balance.

Romania did have a high level diplomacy, and it looks like such an agressive expansion policy for a medium power surrounded by Major Power rivalry and risking invasions from multiple actors, it would not be possible in the real world without expert diplomacy.

On another level, one can ask himself what is the reason for these late AARs. All major powers and a few minors have been tested over and over again since the game came on the market, and there would be little room left for novelties. Those of us loving this game, the closest renactment of WWII to date, simply want to tell a beautiful story with a different outcome or put their literary skills at work for the entertainment of everyone (El Pip), The story is the center of these AARs, not the action. Therefore I put much work on the story, adding here lots of text before moving with snake pace on the map events.

It deserves to mention that I tested once Romania with these stronger, closer to OTL stats and it didn't ended well either, simply because the country cannot address the resources and MP ratio between the Axis and the Allies (2/1), not to mention the weight of the Soviet Union benefitting from an endless supply of Manpower, consistent Lend Lease from the Allies, and weak infrastructure crippling German capacity to supply its massive army. I won't disclose the political direction Romania will take, but there will be enough moments of suspanse and political turning points to affect the country's behaviour. Indeed, victory is by no means guaranteed, no matter the chosen path.

 

[roverS3]

That's a rather steep price to avoid German and Italian military action. Still, considering the circumstances, it's probably the best Romania could hope to get. No obligation to join in any offensive Axis wars, and an open door for continuing to do business with the Allies. The 'no touching Greece' rule is a clear Romanian diplomatic victory. Will Romania publicly join the Axis soon? Will there be more expansion? Will the Axis find a way to shoe Allied business out of the Romanian market? I guess only the future will tell.

I love how only 61 of 400.000 tons of oil were delivered, that's a whole new level of short-changing. I'm surprised there weren't harsher diplomatic repercussions from that one.

 

[Alex Kernel]

No obligation to join in any offensive Axis wars, and an open door for continuing to do business with the Allies.

There is a precedent. Finland did join Axis on a very limited basis, avoiding war with Allies or against USSR beyond self-imposed borders. In Romania there was a very heated debate at the time both in the civil society and in the army. Lots of generals in the army expressed strong reserves with Marshall Antonescu regarding the scope of Romanian war operations against the Soviet Union beyond Bessarabia. Those disagreeing with the unofficial head of state in 1941 have been removed from active duty, but the most of opposition politicians continued their public opposition without repercussions. And there were even fewer people agreeing with declaring war to the Allies. So, Romania had the option to declare war only to the Soviets, and to decide weather it wanted to cross the border beyond the river Nistru or not.

Will the Axis find a way to shoe Allied business out of the Romanian market?

Germany did try to force the nationalisation of the oil industry repeatedly, to evict Allied capital from this strategic industry. At least until 1941, Romanians refused. Not sure what happened afterward.

I love how only 61 of 400.000 tons of oil were delivered, that's a whole new level of short-changing. I'm surprised there weren't harsher diplomatic repercussions from that one.

The information how that was possible is missing, but it is quite probable that the Romanian authorities, which were strongly pro-French, did play their role in sabotaging the exports. King Carol II did try hard from 1938 to 1940 to attract the Allies with more capital in South-East Europe to counterbalance Nazi Germany, and to move England to offer clear security guarantees like France did, but London did not budge. For example he asked for a credit of 50 million Pounds to sustain the Romanian financial system, but the British Government offered only 5 million at very high rates, and essentially security guarantees are out of question. Romania has to arrange itself with the rising German influence, like the rest of Eastern Europe, was told the Romanian officials. France was financially almost broke, and after the 1936 Militarisation of Rhine Carol II was starting to grasp that France's security guarantees alone were not worth much without supplementary English, or eventually American, ones.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Effects of the Axis Treaties

During the next two weeks the Italian and Romanian Chiefs of Staff have planned together a time table for a gradual and ordered turn over of the seven provinces to Italy. The Romanian Military Police will hand the authority over city after city to their Italian counterparts in a process ending in three weeks, after ratification. Roughly within one month the national Parliaments will ratify the Treaty, and Romania will inform appropriately the local authorities to be affected by the change of political control. By July 27, Italy will take over the entire territory stipulated in the bilateral peace and cooperation treaty.

The Yugoslav autonomous government has predictably vigorously protested against ceding his provinces to Italy. The Romanian prime-minister went to Belgrade, where the predominantly Serb government was located and explained that Bucharest had no choice. It must amend its relations with the Axis before the humiliation of a national-socialist arbitration in Berlin occurs. Romania cannot afford a hostile Italy constantly threatening its borders. The Yugoslavs where nevertheless very upset on the Romanian government, claiming the territorial ceding was illegal under the International Law. Prime Minister Armand Călinescu reminded them, Romania had just annexed former Yugoslavia, and therefore it has the right to take territorial decisions. Under this international conjuncture, this was the only thing his country could do to prevent further Italian territorial claims and expansion into former Yugoslavia.

Regarding the economic treaty with Germany, the Romanian government understood it had to deliver the necessary refined oil products in accordance to the treaty pledges in order not to aggravate the National Socialist regime in Germany. Both parties proceeded to apply the Treaty in its multiple economic branches, but in some points neither side wanted to compromise. On the 10 June 1938 King Carol II summoned the extended Crown Council including all ministers to discuss the applicability of the Economic Treaty with Germany. They have decided to impose oil export quotas to all national producers to meet the stipulated quantities, to further open the Romanian market to German capital, investments refused by the Allies, absolutely necessary for the industrialisation of the country. However Romania will not release control over its natural resources, and will protect the Allied capital as it previously promised in London and Paris, also as a biding to keep the stakes for the alliance alive in the region. The mixed German-Romanian companies in the oil and ores industries will stay under Romanian control, because the Romanian state will retain 51% of ownership. At the meeting it was also noted that while the treaty didn’t amount to an ultimatum, some provisions had been imposed on Bucharest’s diplomacy under the threat of military intervention while the Romanian army was involved in the Bulgarian campaign. The position of the Crown Council was that the treaty did not create a state of affairs, but only established “the directives for a plan that will have to be designed”. The Foreign Minister issued shortly after a confidential memorandum for the Government high officials, urging them to organize “internal actions of systematic resistance” at an economic level towards Germany’s pretentions, whenever they’re directly or subtle threatening Romania’s economic and political independence.

In return for the improved access for German investments and for the introduction of oil quotas, Germany together with its business elites started invested in the civil industrial and agricultural branches of Romania, but generally refused to sell the armament and licences Romania urgently needed.

In short Romania avoided to release the control over its natural resources, while striving to keep the economic and strategic interests of the Allies alive. In a recognition of the reality of growing German dominance over the region with little if any Allied opposition, Bucharest did a series of concessions by opening the national market to German capital on a relatively fair ground with the French and English ones. And Germany – impelled by its imperative to secure stable oil imports - did start an ambitious program of investments in and financial impetus to Romania, providing the economic support the Allies refused to offer the years before. Notwithstanding these positive developments several economic and political goals remained out of reach for both states, which caused some tensions to persist, until future amendments will eventually address them.

Three months later, as the Treaty implementation produced the first effects, Premier Armand Călinescu met with the Minister Fabricius, who expressed Germany’s wish to maintain the relations “in the same manner and, especially that it will be possible for the convention [i.e. in its integrality] to be executed”. The premier declared then that “… We shall execute the engagements with loyalty. Certainly, since there will be reciprocity and since Germany will deliver with punctuality. I have noticed that so far we have given them petroleum over the quotas, and they have stopped some of the weapon transports”.

 

[Bullfilter]

Just catching up again. With Bulgaria gone it seems to be time to wait for the rest of the world to go to hell. And trying to stay safe?

 

[roverS3]

Let me get this straight, Romania is giving Germany just enough oil and access to it's industry to hold it's end of the deal, but Germany isn't supplying the weapons it promised.

The Foreign Minister issued shortly after a confidential memorandum for the Government high officials, urging them to organize “internal actions of systematic resistance” at an economic level towards Germany’s pretentions, whenever they’re directly or subtle threatening Romania’s economic and political independence.

I just hope that doesn't get leaked to the Germans, or you can kiss new German weapons good-bye...

This diplomatic game is beautiful and intricate. The more you delve into it, the more I'm gripped by the nuances and the intrigue.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Greece in crisis

For some time, Joseph Stalin along his entourage, who always regarded Yugoslavia, Greece and Bulgaria as the natural sphere of influence of the Soviet Union, was pondering of a way to secure a foothold in the Balkans against any competitors in the region: Italy, and or Germany, England, and newly the expanding Romania acting as a blocking shield against Soviet influence.

Barely had the Yugoslav war ended on 2 April 1938 that reports about a swift concentration of Romanian troops along the Bulgarian borders began flowing from Communist spies at an alarming rate. Obviously, the Romanians were neither going to forget, nor to let unpunished the Bulgarian participation in the Italian plot to destroy Romania, and Russia did not have much time left to safeguard a strategic bridgehead in the Region for both offensive and defensive purposes as necessity dictates. Given the anti-Communist governments in Belgrade and Sofia have kept at bay Marxist political parties and clandestine organizations, and the Italian / Hungarian intrusion in Yugoslavian politics, USSR had little space of manoeuvre there, but Greece was another story.

Since the Great War Greece had been a hotbed of political instability, with strong underground Communist organizations and open political parties vying for power with the Conservative establishment supporting King George II, brought to power following a coup d’état in 1935 against the Second Hellenic Republic. An entire century since 1821 Greeks have endlessly fought to overthrow the ruthless Ottoman rule and later on to regain national territories still under Turkish occupation. These very difficult conditions for the birth of the Balkan Mediterranean state have left the Greek population very poor, while the state was most of the time in a dire economic situation.

Public disillusionment with the endless political corruption, which had been growing swiftly in the preceding years, was exacerbated when the news broke that the main political blocs were secretly negotiating with the communists. Confronted by prolonged political crisis threatening to escape out of control, King George II named as prime minister General Ioannis Metaxas, a right-wing and lesser-known figure supported by the Army. Metaxas exploited labour unrest and a threatened general strike to persuade the king in August 1936 to suspend key articles of the Constitution. Metaxa didn’t lose any time and instituted a quasi-Fascist dictatorial regime that shied away from an alliance with the Axis, preferring to stay in good terms with Britain, and indirectly placing the country under British protection. The dictator—whose paternalistic style was signaled by the adoption of such titles as “National Father,” “First Peasant,” and “First Worker”—shared a dislike for parliamentary democracy, liberalism, and communism that was characteristic of German Nazism and Italian Fascism, but the “Regime of the Fourth of August 1936” simply lacked their dynamism.
King George II of Greece, an inactive figure

"National Father" and "First Worker", Prime Minister Ioannis Metaxas

Having completed his military studies in Germany, Metaxas did try to use his high level connections in the German army to keep good relations with Nazi Germany, but he had a hard time to maintain a balance against the expansionist tendency of Italy and with the territorial demands of Bulgaria. And, his striving to maintain the country’s traditional alignment toward Britain, didn’t go well in Berlin either.
Metaxas as Fascist leader

The Fourth of August Regime was amidst a concerted effort to vigorously suppress political opposition, especially the strong Communist movement, and carrying out some beneficial economic and social reforms, when Soviet Union – unnerved by Romania denying them the prospect of establishing dominance in the Balkans and by Metaxas’ campaign to do the same in Greece by suppressing the Communist political parties – decided to force the right-wing regime out of power and replace it with a pro-Moscow Communist government. Thus uncharacteristically for his cautious nature, Joseph Stalin chose taking the risk of upsetting Great Britain, but refrained to organize an outright sea invasion, which could have led to war with the Allies and have been a complicated affair due to the Bosporus Straights being under Turkish control. Since mid-April 1938 USSR began in high secrecy supplying with massive quantities of weapons, several officers and money the Communist Greek resistance. Metaxas’ military suppression operation with British financial help turned into a bloody civil war, taking everyone by surprise.
Fightings reach Athens

By the beginning of June 1938 the National Liberation Front (Ethnikón Apeleftherotikón Métopon; EAM) reuniting the main Marxist Greek forces, whose military arm known as the Ellinikós Laikos Apeleftherotikós Strátos (ELAS) was to a significant degree under covert Soviet leadership and military support, has overthrown the conservative-nationalist government of Joannis Metaxas. Britain has scrambled to send a 50.000 men expeditionary force to save its own foothold in Eastern Mediterranean See, but the rapidity of the events brought the dreaded outcome before the English army could land in Greece. British Intelligence didn’t take long to find out who was behind such an upheaval in Greece and the Comintern-Allies relations soured from that day on. The Russian action has been seen in London as an attack on British sphere of influence and a wider threat to the Colonial Empire.
Communist Guerillas

Greek Communist guerilla led by covert Russian commanders

Benito Mussolini wanted to use this opportunity to conquer Greece under the pretense of rescuing the falling Metaxas regime from the Communist aggression, though it lacked the naval bases in Albania he so much coveted, which were in Romanian hands. The national military budget had been mostly spent on modernizing and increasing the Italian navy to counter the Anglo-French dominance over Mediterranean Sea, with the downside of weaker ground forces and a lack of troops specialized on amphibious assaults. Both Italy and Germany were definitely not interested of the prospect of Soviet troops and navy stationed in Greece in the near future. In vain tried Italy to convince the Romanian Government to allow rights of passage through Western Balkans for Italian troops to conduct war operations in Greece.

The decision-makers in Bucharest were very worried, as the Axis and the Allies were, of the very real possibility of Communist Russian outposts in Greece. The main concern for the Romanians was that Soviet Union wanted at all costs to maintain a capability to crush Romania in a blitz-krieg two-front war and gain in one move control over the whole Balkan and South-East Europe. Romania was very conscious of the power differential with the Soviet Union, even in the case of a sole front confrontation at its river Nistru border. Alarm bells were ringing in the main capitals of Europe and a frantic diplomatic activity started across the continent.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Just catching up again. With Bulgaria gone it seems to be time to wait for the rest of the world to go to hell. And trying to stay safe?

Unfortunately, the world is already getting restless. What can we do ?

Let me get this straight, Romania is giving Germany just enough oil and access to it's industry to hold it's end of the deal, but Germany isn't supplying the weapons it promised.

Well, Germany is holding some parts of the deal too, just not the critical ones. Don't worry Romania didn't see much of those weapon deliveries in OTL either . Tensions will surface again and the necessity to solve them one way or another will fuel new unforeseen events. No spoiler allowed .

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Very interesting goings-on in Greece, it sounds like. Perhaps it will be up to Romania to be the guarantor of peace and security in the Balkans once again...surely, it is not a role Romania is eager to take on, but she is willing to do what must be done!

I'm curious, did you actually modify the game to show a civil war in Greece, or is this simply narrative sleight to move the plot along?

 

[roverS3]

Oh boy, the geopolitical implications of Greece being close to the Comintern are rather serious indeed. With the British-backed Greek government gone, it now becomes very hard to justify siding with the Allies. If you could have precluded the Italians from taking Greece, and Metaxas had remained in power, British forces based in Greece and possibly Greek forces could have helped out against either Axis or Comintern attack, making it a somewhat viable option. Now, though, it's Axis or Comintern, the Allies are too far away to do anything meaningful to save greater Romania if/when a major war breaks out. Maybe Romania should invade Greece to protect it's southern flank? The Communist rabblerousers who opposed the invasion of Bulgaria are a perfect pretext, just publicly state the Greek government is harbouring communist terrorists who have operated in Romania, and when the Greeks inevitably refuse to extradite them (real or made up), you have a (rather flimsy) case for war for national security reasons... The Soviets probably won't move openly against you because they don't want to get into a war with the Axis, and they know the Germans will probably declare war to preserve their privileged access to the Romanian economy and it's resources.

 

[Alex Kernel]

I'm curious, did you actually modify the game to show a civil war in Greece, or is this simply narrative sleight to move the plot along?

Oh @nuclearslurpee, you're funny, all right . All that talk about Romania, the guarantor of peace and so on looks to be taken right out of a Propaganda textbook. Good one! The second option is correct. It is a simple narrative sleight to justify the invasion of Greece. I was desperately looking for a credible pretext for an invasion that never took place, and, as I read about the inter-bellum and during war history of Greece, the muse paid a visit me. So, this scenario was invented from a true historical context.

@roverS3 Indeed, siding with the Allies was impossible in OTL and it is the same case here. In OTL Greece was invaded in 1940/1941, whereby the German-Italian forces defeated a 100.000 British expeditionary corp. I believe the Soviet Union was very inclined to support the powerful Communist forces in Greece, but the British Naval superiority in the Mediterranean, the Bosporus Straits in Turkish hands (whereby the Turks were able to botleneck the naval circulation of the Russian navy), the hostile anti-Communist Romanian barrier and the lack of a contiguous border with Greece prevented it. Then, after 22 June 1941, the Soviets were absorbed with their own survival. After 1944 Churchill and Stalin partitioned Eastern-Europe again, like Hitler and Stalin did in August 1939, selling Romania for Greece. And so, the communist movements in Greece were crushed by the Allies and the internal conservative forces without any attempt from Moscow to help the Greek comrades, while Romania endured one of the harshest Communist and murderous Eastern-European dictatorships brought on the Russian tanks, without any contestation from the Allied countries.

 

[Bullfilter]

OK, so one last war to take Greece before the big one starts. It is likely to prove a fairly tough fight as the Greek Army mobilises while you slog through some difficult terrain, but I’m sure the non-imperialist freedom-loving Romanian liberators will triumph in the end.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Toward Ousting the Communist Party


Greece did never feature high in the Romanian foreign policy, but the threat of a Communist Government in Athens has turned things upside down. On the 11 June 1938 the Comunists took over Athens and proclaimed Greece a Communist Republic. Adding gas to the fire, the new leadership announced it would seek Soviet protection against the imperialist powers. That was interpreted everywhere from Bucharest to Rome, Berlin, Paris and London as a veiled invitation to install Russian military bases in Greece. The Romanian general Headquarter ordered immediately the Romanian forces resupplying in Bulgaria to cover the Greek border.

Two days later King Carol II learned that Moscow asked Ankara to allow Russian military convoys to pass through Bosporus Straits for Greece. Turkey, who maintained close relations with the USSR and Britain, thought twice, feeling the danger oft Communist encroachment itself. An urgent telegram exchange with the British Government ensued. The British Government convened in the middle of the night of 14/15 June 1938 and decided to offer Turkey security guarantees and the promise of immediate an 100.000 men expeditionary force, half of which being originally prepared for embarkment for Greece, in case the Soviet Union declares war on Turkey. Only after that, did Turkey on 15 June the courage to reject the Soviet request.

Then, on the 16 June 1938 the Soviet asked Romania in ultimative terms to permit in maximum three days the transit of Russian forces to Greece. The Romanian Prime Minister summoned the German and English representatives in Bucharest to ask for advice, expressing the fear that not only the presence of Soviet troops would be a severe threat for all actors involved in the Mediterranean, but it might also end in the occupation of Romania.

Hitler, who saw the Russian action as a plot to subvert the German hegemony over South-Eastern Europe and Balkan and to curtail German access to critical Romanian oil reserves, sent his newly appointed Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop by plane to Moscow with the message that forcing the borders of Romania amounts to a declaration of war on Germany. The British and the French ambassadors to Soviet Union also threatened with war, should USSR deploy troops in Greece, and warned in strong terms the Soviet Government against provocative actions against Romania.

Marshall Hermann Göring informed on 19 June Romania not to answer in any way to the Russian request, and keep the incident secret to avoid an international scandal that would tarnish the image of the USSR. Italy was at the same time keen to intervene, making great pressure on Hitler to approve Italian action in Greece, with or without the opposition from Romania. Knowing from secret service reports that Italy was not yet able to organize such an invasion, Hitler called Carol II and told him Romania has to invade Greece for the Axis powers and overthrow the Communists. Should Romania not be able to do it in two months, Italy would intervene. Germany will guarantee the Eastern borders of Romania for the period of this operation.

As this wasn’t enough, on the 20.06.1938 King George II with his family, from which the Queen Mother of Romania, the former Princess Elena/Helen of Greece descends, and several cabinet members defended by remnants forces of the royalist army appears at the Greek-Romanian border. Mr. Metaxas, half of the Government and a few party loyals took refuge to the British navy instead, before going to London.

King Carol II and Queen Elena have divorced in 1928, but their son, prince Mihai of Romania is the heir to the Throne, while King Carol II is only Regent. The Greek Royal Family, like the Romanian one, is also closely related to the British Royal Family, while both of them are principally of German descent (different houses though). Queen Elena, profoundly affected by the tragedy of her Greek family, asks Carol II to help George II regain his throne, even if this means a new war.


Mother Queen Elena of Romania (former Princess Helen of Greece)
King Carol II (Regent, because he renounced his throne rights once, to marry another women he loved later, then came took back the throne in 1930 as regent until his son Mihai I would be 18)

King Carol II with his and Queen Elena son Mihai I

(Sorry, the photos are of different sizes from the Internet)

Under phenomenal duress, with a very threatening Soviet Union at the gates, and the Axis urging him to act, Carol II asks the Allies about the prospect of Romanian intervention. France is not particularly interested about Greece, but it does not want Soviet presence in the Mediterranean, one more problem to such a geopolitically crowded space. London wants Communists out and the restauration of the Greek monarchy in while keeping USSR away from its colonial possessions, and actually would welcome Romanian intervention, which would spare London from additional troubles with Moscow, and the Axis… Both countries would close an eye, one more time, under these exceptionally difficult circumstances.

The Italian Foreign Minister Ciano travelled for the first time to Bucharest on 21 June, insisting in case of a successful Romanian intervention, the isle Crete should enter under Italian control, claim Rome has laid for decades since the First World War, when it defeated the Ottomans on the Sea. This acquisition would aid a lot Italian operations in Eastern Mediterranean, he argued. In principle Bucharest would accept this in exchange for Italy renouncing its pretentions to install military bases in the continental Greece. However, the Romanians were aware Britain was intending for some time too to create a military base of its own on the strategic isle, and an Italian overtaking would spark very intense tensions.

On the 22 June the King convokes the Crown Council and there the participants vote with an edge majority a military operation to restore the legitimate monarchical regime in Athens. As such Romania commences on June 23 1938 war operations in Greece, without a formal declaration of war, since the legal authorities, that is King George II and his remaining Cabinet have officially asked for the intervention against the illegal Communist organizations who took power by force and acts of terrorism.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Excellent news for Romania with a rock-solid diplomatic pretext and cover to intervene in Greece. Uncle Joe Stalin should really be feeling the ill effects of maintaining such an isolated diplomatic stance as the rest of the world is arraying against him.

I do note that it seems the French and British should be more concerned about the potential for a Romanian intervention to open doors for the presence of German military bases in the adriatic and Mediterranean. Romania may not be an Axis power at this stage, but certainly Germany has been leaning hard on Romania to pursue a pro-German and pro-Hitler agenda, whereas Britain and France are steadily losing their ability to effectively influence Romania. Perhaps they are over-confident in the ability of their diplomatic corps to outfox the Germans?

 

[stnylan]

Greece is a very logical next step

 

[Alex Kernel]

Greece Liberation

The fall of Athens on 11 June has convinced most Greek generals to bring the Army under the new government authority to stop further unnecessary bloodhed in the country. No minute too soon, obviously, since the Soviet ally informed their comrades about Romanian concentration of forces at the northern border, and about the British rather accepting a Romanian invasion to overthrow them, than intervene themselves in a risky operation. If Romania would refrain from attacking Greece, NKVD believed, Italy was more than ready to do it. Therefore the Greek army should be urgently mobilised at the said borders.

The Greek leadership asked, if and when would USSR intervene in a war scenario. Moscow said they would do what they can, but the circumstances are very unfavourable for a Soviet intervention. The Communist Government was in control of the national army by 13 june and sent all the available forces to the northern borders.

The Romanian General Headquarter made its war plans in great haste, and in the morning of 23 June 1938 commenced the "Operation Greece Liberation".

The consensual assessment was, it would not be wise to drive the main attack line through Greece's mountainous centre, given the country's rich guerrilla warfare experience. The armoured and motorised divisions underpinned by many infantry divisions had been ordered to march through Eastern Greece toward Athens. From Athens, Romania will land forces on impratant islands like Crete, later on. For the time being, it was noted that the navy lacks transport troops. The navy yards in Constanta were urgently commisioned to build two transport flotillas for that mission.

Once Athens would be liberated from pro-Moscow's forces, the Romanian bombers will rebase there and several days later receive the mission to bombard the Greek fleet, which according to known data is more powerful than the Romanian one, because they have received several modern warships from the British in the past.

Operation Greece Liberation - Battle Plans

With the Greek aviation defeated during the first 24 hours, the Romanian divisions met limited resistance. The Greek units, barely reaching their positions a few days ago and suffering manpower and organization penalties from the civil war fell back, trying to retreat to Central Greece, where communist guerillas were waiting for them to organize a common resistance attempt in the mountains. Salonica, the most important northern city and port comes soon under fire.

The first commerce convoy came under attack. The Greek navy has started harrasing the Romanian convoys, which would amount to up to 10 lost transport ships sunk during the next two months. The Navy is stationed in Constanta. It will begin to operate once the Air fleet will get the opportunity to bombard and damage the Greek navy, hopefully by August.

The city of Salonica fell after three days of fightings, without many losses, while Romanian convoys were constantly under fire. Fortunately, the commercial fleet had many reserve transport fleets to replace the casualties.

The forward cavalry divisions did outrun many retreating Greek divisions, but not those coming from the mountains in a desperate bid to prevent a siege on Athens. However, the cavalry would soon receive reinforcements, which should turn the fate of the battle. The Airwings were also scrambled and sent to support the ground units in Meliki.

Due to lack of competition on the skies of Greece, the Romanian fighter group started bombardment missions with very limited... success. The General Headquarter suspects these missions are not worth the supply and fuel consumption...

Soon to follow...

 

[stnylan]

started bombardment missions with very limited... success.

I have to note I think this is masterful understatement.

 

[roverS3]

Due to lack of competition on the skies of Greece, the Romanian fighter started bombardment missions with very limited... success. The General Headquarter suspects these missions are not worth the supply and fuel consumption...

Yep, it's not worth it. Save your supplies and fuel instead. Fighters strafing ground targets is just a waste.

That's a pretty good battle plan, going around the mountains to grab Salonica early-on was definitely the way to go. Of course, the question remains whether Greece will surrender after losing the mainland, or whether you will have to commit to a naval operation against a superior naval power, taking Crete. As you're only building transports now, that will make the war drag on, so it's really not ideal. There's also the risk that the Italians then decide to declare war with Greece, and that they take the Islands before you can.

FYI it seems that you also attached the pictures for the next update to this one. You can easily manage your attachements through 'edit post', 'more options'. Any picture that you upload, but don't use in the update, will be visible to everyone as an attachment at the end of the post.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Greece Liberation (II)

The news that the Soviet Union nationalizes private second for the second time in a year has left speachless many in Bucharest. Anyway nobody knew there was anything left to nationalize after the 1917 October Revolution...

Back to the front, things were already going slower in the mountainous regions, after the first advance phase. The first major battle in Greece took place in Paliouria, luckily a non-fortified area. In the mountains the infantry divisions had limited use of their artillery brigades, and got no aviation support, which was badly needed elsewhere. 364 soldiers lost their life, roughly the same with the enemy casualties. This battle opened a long series of mountains battles till the end of July.

In the Sykia province Romanians found for the first time Communist guerilla cells. During the confrontations, as the army advanced mountain by mountain, the military took Soviet prisoners, NKVD officers together with compromising documents proving the Soviet involvement in the Greek civil war and coup d'etat, which were publicly exposed. This created an international scandal affecting the global standing of the Soviet Union. Premier Armand Calinescu hoped to discover also information hinting to Soviet plans to install soviet military bases in Greece, but nothing in this sense was found. If any clues of such a plan existed, the Romanians were sure of from their insiders in Moscow, they must have been stored at the communist government in Athens...

At last, on 14 July 1938 began the siege of Athens, while the majority of the Greek army and Communist terrorist groups were being pocketed in the central mountainous region.

A division in Mesolongi was traversing at full speed the waters towards the southern Greek peninsula, before the enemy navy could block their advance and unnecessarily prolong the hostilities.

Greek defence got more robust due to reinforcements in Athens, but so did the Romanian troops increase their numbers to maintain the pressure.

On the 18 July 1938, after four days of fighting, the Communists were defeated and their government impreasoned. Alas, the Communists carefully destroyed all documents related to USSR in the last hours before losing the capital.

Until 27 July the whole continental Greece was liberated, hopes were in vain the Greeks would surrender. Although the Communists were crushed nationalist army elements retreated with the navy to Crete and to Mytilene Islands.

Romania started negotiations with them, offering to reinstate King George II, and declare Greece an independent Country, but under Romanian influence. The Greek officers asked instead for a republic, which was unacceptable to the Romanian royal family. Moreover they asked in London for British security guarantees, which Romania saw as treason to honest negotiations. London was very interested to establish its own military bases on Crete, and even in Greece, several influent British politicians lobbying for negotiations with Romania. The British government though, didn't want to risk a diplomatic clash with Germany and Italy, and was pondering what to to next.

Romania, a country without stakes or ambitions in the Mediterranean, was not against British influence and military presence in the region, including on Crete, but it feared a serious backlash from Berlin and Rome, and therefore wanted to avoid getting cought in Great Power rivalry. This meant the army had to liquidate the Greek resistance as soon as possible, before everything explodes.

The construction of those military transport fleets had received a new urgency together with the need to weaken the enemy fleet before the Romanian navy gets involved to defend the transports.

The Romanian campaigns against the Slavic and Greek Orthodox tiny brothers of the Third (Red) Rome, and the Greece debacle has heated the Soviet-Romanian relations to almost unsustainable levels. The diplomatic relations between the two parts were irremediably damaged. The fruitless 2 decades negotiations for the Soviets to recognize Bessarabia as Romanian territory were stopped. The Romanians believed those negotiations were useless at best, because the Russians never really negotiated in good faith, keeping these talks alive for so long exclusively as an element of political blackmail against Romania since the end of the Great War.

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This is almost the end of the Greek campaign. Guys, the graphics in my campaign are lacking in quality, but I am slowly learning from those of you who currently write AARs and get accustomed again with WIN OS and Paintbrush. Though Paintbrush is very weak and some graphic elements that you use in your AARs are not doable there. So a knew, more powerful software (hopefully inexpensive) is needed. Any suggestions on graphics are welcome. Thank you for the tip, @roverS3.