Ever since the death of Babeuf back in 1934, the nations of the world have looked towards France anxious to find out whether it would tip back into dictatorship or if it might manage to gain some semblance of democracy. Past years seem to have answered the question on the side of progressive democratization under the joint rule of Danton and Giraud but this last December 1937 re-opened the question. Danton's death came as the unexpected result of a mysterious cancer and left Giraud alone at the helm with absolute power within his grasp. President Roosevelt exercised subtle pressures on the Secretary during his speech to Congress in the occasion of his extension of public funding to healthcare on the French model. In his oration, he praised Babeuf's example in the matter of providing rights to his people but placed particular emphasis on his "deathbed conversion to democracy" with which he had saved the soul of France. He continued by expressing his worry that France might slide into the autocracy of neighboring Germany with only the color of their uniform distinguishing them. He finished this aside by repeating America's role in leading its allies to a proper democratic system of government so that they might jointly aid in the progress of mankind.
President Roosevelt in his speech to Congress.
The speech had the desired effect, and, on the 6th of January 1938, Giraud appointed a young party member to become Chairman while announcing the removal of some restrictions to free press and free speech. Indiscretions by those in the diplomatic corps have expanded on this change and there appears to be talk of allowing alternative parties to have some representation in the Upper House, but these rumors have not yet been officially confirmed or denied.
On the international stage, France has emerged as the leader of its own sphere of influence with Italy acting as a second pole and vector of communism towards the East of the continent. It is, however, no secret that these nations all march to the tune that France sets and there are clear signs of liberalization which are being conducted by Giraud.
Smaller nations in Europe such as Great Britain and Spain have benefitted from French influence in increasing their social safety nets as they lean on the French Empire's vast pool of resources to maintain the infrastructure they built up in their own imperial days. While Spain has long been integrated with France, the United Kingdom initially displayed some reluctance in cooperation with the French due to the fresh memory of the I Great War but soon British industries, starved of colonial raw materials, have pressured their government to bury the hatchet and accept entry into the larger French sphere. This sphere, whose main members are Britain, Spain and Italy orbiting around the Commune, has taken on the appearance of a partial customs union with France allowing access to its colonies in exchange for privileged access to the member nations' military production with the expressed aim of ensuring peace and using the French military as a deterrent to foreign encroachment.
French and allied leaders finalize their customs union.
Beyond France, the continent is mainly a battleground between the Great Powers of Germany and Russia, a fact well known to them especially. The two powers have locked horns for the past decade and waged a diplomatic war for the control of the hearts and minds of the Balkans, but it seems now that the friction is starting to become critical. The struggle for influence which was once gentlemanly and ordered has become more erratic as threats to diplomats culminated in the German assassination of the Russian ambassador to Hungary. This was followed by the bombing of the German embassy in Romania which the Russians fervently denied knowledge of until a Tsarist covert agent was captured by Romanian police and confessed to the crime. This ever-worsening exchange of blows gives clear indications that one last European War will occur before the region can be fully stabilized.
Aftermath of the Romanian bombing.
The outcome of such a large-scale conflict appears to be in favor of the Germans with an industry unparalleled in their hemisphere and army endowed with cutting edge technology. This opinion is not shared by all analysts and some argue that the well of resources represented by India will be instrumental in compensating for the technological disadvantage of the Tsar. What is clear to all, but some prefer not to say, is that the winning side will be the one who can gain the support of the United States.
The lone superpower of the World has emerged unscathed from the three Great Wars and can boast a military and industry more than twice the size of either Germany or Russia. It is, however, unclear in which direction the Roosevelt administration plans to throw its support in the case of another Great War. It is no secret that Giraud has aims on Alsace-Lorraine and has tried to obtain a transferal of the small buffer state to French influence; this would appear as a clear motivation for the United States to join the Russians in defeating Germany and allowing for more French influence in Central Europe and consequent extension of American ideals into the autocratic East. Others have countered this argument by stating that the 1926 Treaty of Washington was the final word on conflict in Western Europe and that the President wishes to emulate the Alsace-Lorraine model in the East. This could be achieved by freeing many of the stateless nationalities under the Tsar and placing them under American protection for the sake of a more peaceful future.
Meanwhile, in the Far East, it appears that the power vacuum left by the fall of the Japanese Empire is being fought over between an overextended Russia and a newly solidifying China where it looks that the Nationalists have finally gotten the upper hand with the not-so-secret aid of the current administration. It seems likely that the Chinese will make good use of their armies hardened by civil war as leverage against the Russians, especially during another Great War, and some say that the fate of the newly unified India might hang in the balance.
In all these scenarios, the United States have the power to tip the scales. It is surprising to note that, over the past century, America has gone from a relatively unknown country in the Western Hemisphere to the arbiter of world conflicts where it can decide the outcome of even Great Wars. What it will do with this power is yet to be seen but it is certain that it will drastically change the course of the century.