Bolivarian Confederacy (alt history/pre-alpha)

[unmerged(96727)]

I am looking ideas about plot/setting for a mod.

For the moment this will be a simple mod, which adds a new power to the world stage to make native AoD more interesting.

The Bolivarian Confederacy is a nation from Guatemala/Belize to the borders of Colombia and Ecuador It is a multi-national and bilingual nation (majority Spanish-speaking, minority Francophone). It is a regional/small major power in IC (similar to Italy), has a manpower slightly higher than Brazil and tech teams on average equivalent to Japan. It is social-liberal yet expansionist and militaristic and refuses to fit into any existing bloc (Comintern/Allies/Axis).

Initially this idea started as a mod-mod for Domination of the Draka premised on a Social-Liberal "Anti-Draka" bloc in South America, combining French radical and Hispano-American traditions. Since a lot of work is still to be done, I want to make this a mod for native AoD, and found that the idea of a fifth power worked just as well or better there.

The alternate history diverges in two historical events:

First, that Simon Bolivar's republic survived and the state of Gran Colombia (Venezuela, Colombia, Peru) was established.

Second, that during the Franco-Mexican War the outcome was a French outpost in southern Mexico, which began to receive colonists and became a second Algeria (formerly, replacement Republic in Draka setting) during the Third Republic.

Sometime during the 1890s these two blocs came together for reasons to be explained, and it has rapidly modernized and industrialized.

During a 1936 campaign the Confederacy will become allied to Japan ("the League") in 1939 after the defeat of Nationalist China by Japan (which will be forced to occur). In 1940 there will be the opportunity to DOW Peru. An early Japanese attack on Burma and Singapore will also give the opportunity to seize Allied Caribbean and South American provinces.

From 1941 the world will be at war three ways:
-USA/Allies vs Axis
-Axis vs Comintern
-USA/Allies vs Japan/Confederacy

So the two most powerful blocs {USA/Allies and Axis} will be at war on two fronts and the two weaker {Comintern and Japan/Confederacy} on one.

If either the Axis or Comintern defeat their opponents the League will declare war on them.

At the moment I have a playable nation of 76 IC, the tech teams, leaders and ministers (drawn from annexed nations or invented), but no expanded OOB, or events for it. I think this would make for a good gameplay idea but would like to flesh out setting before starting on events.


Alt History Questions:
-How would the emergence of this Fifth Power come about?
-What should be it's politics?
-How would this affect the balance of power in the Americas? How would the USA be affected?
-For people who know about Bolivarianism, what would be the ideological motive to ally with Japan?
-Would Germany or the USSR be affected?

 

[DesertSnow]

This mod seems like a nice idea. This nation would give me a good reason to play as a minor nation. Plus, i like ahistorical situations.

Alt History Questions:
-How would the emergence of this Fifth Power come about?
-What should be it's politics?
-How would this affect the balance of power in the Americas? How would the USA be affected?
-For people who know about Bolivarianism, what would be the ideological motive to ally with Japan?
-Would Germany or the USSR be affected?

a. As you have already stated, Simon Bolivar's dream became a reality. Plus, the French stronghold in Mexico was too close to this new power. When in 1916 the latin inhabitants revolted against their french masters, the confederacy quickly took advantage of the situation and provided support. France, engaged in WW1, decided to negotiate with the confederacy. After the confederacy guaranteed the well being of the french settlers, France decided to allow their stronghold to became a "protectorate" of the confederacy. In order to alleviate dissent in France, the agreement included the deployment of 100,000 confederate troops in the western front. During the 1920s, unrest in the protectorate, caused by economical collapse, allowed the confederacy to annex these lands in order to "establish order and protect the people of french descent". In reality, confederate spies played a major role in stirring up the revolt.

b,d. I would choose a democracy ready to collapse" pattern, that came as a result of the effects of the economic depression on the confederacy. As was the case in Japan, right-wing politicians promoted an expansionist policy, disguised in a "south america prosperity sphere" propaganda. The annexation of the former French stronghold was the first success of this new policy. Sharing similar ambitions, Japan and the confederacy signed the Caracas treaty in 1935.

 

[unmerged(96727)]

Thanks for the feedback DesertSnow.

a. As you have already stated, Simon Bolivar's dream became a reality. Plus, the French stronghold in Mexico was too close to this new power. When in 1916 the latin inhabitants revolted against their french masters, the confederacy quickly took advantage of the situation and provided support. France, engaged in WW1, decided to negotiate with the confederacy. After the confederacy guaranteed the well being of the french settlers, France decided to allow their stronghold to became a "protectorate" of the confederacy. In order to alleviate dissent in France, the agreement included the deployment of 100,000 confederate troops in the western front. During the 1920s, unrest in the protectorate, caused by economical collapse, allowed the confederacy to annex these lands in order to "establish order and protect the people of french descent". In reality, confederate spies played a major role in stirring up the revolt.

b,d. I would choose a democracy ready to collapse" pattern, that came as a result of the effects of the economic depression on the confederacy. As was the case in Japan, right-wing politicians promoted an expansionist policy, disguised in a "south america prosperity sphere" propaganda. The annexation of the former French stronghold was the first success of this new policy. Sharing similar ambitions, Japan and the confederacy signed the Caracas treaty in 1935.

Some good ideas, however I wanted the Federation to be a German ally during WW2, to have been at war with the USA directly and to explain how they gained Central America. I want it to be an active antagonist of America, but not an obvious power-mongering dictatorship.


Here's the history I've sketched in since, tell me what you think:

The weak point at the moment is how the French part becomes independent of France.


New Granada element:
-federation holds together
-Panama remains in union, no Bidlack-Mallarino treaty, no US troops in Central America.
-Monroe doctrine thus weaker, mainly exists on paper.
-Federation internally unstable disorganized until the 1860s, so it doesn't make many conquests, political factionalism.
-Unifying leader emerges in the 1860s, full rights given to all ethnic groups, idealistic nationalist authors, poets, artists create a national identity which spreads from middle class to rest of society.
-Militarization and creation of modern central army in 1860s.

French element:
-in the 1820s, a popular uprising in Belize allows annexation by the Republic of Central America. Britain sends troops but fails to recover it. Treaty signed. When Central America Republic dissolves, taken by Guatemala.
-the outcome of the Maximillian affair is a a stalemate, Republic holds northern strongholds, in center and south a weak Mexican empire lasts 8 years.
-French soldiers and mercenaries are rewarded with land in the South of Mexico (Oaxaca, Veracruz, Chiapas, Yucatan Peninsula). Settlers from French West Indies, and also France itself arrive, in preference to Algeria.
-Franco-Prussian war in the 1870s, Maximilian and settlers are abandoned. Central Mexico regained by republic, Maximilian captured and executed. French settler-soldiers elect emergency command, enlist local indigenous militias, and manage to push back invading Republican forces. A cease-fire and southern provinces ceded by treaty while continental France still at war and unaware of events.
-Liberal republican politics strong in territory. During the 1880s, autonomy movement starts. Gains "Dominion" equivalent status, or use some crisis in France to declare complete independence. Called "Republic of Yucatan" or something similar.
-1880/90s, war against Guatemala in alliance with El Salvador, later absorption of El Salvador.

20th century history:
-after Yucatan Republic part has absorbed Guatemala, secret pact with Bolivarian federation (then Ecuador-Venezuela up to Panama) and jointly declare war on remaining Central American states (Honduras, Costa Rica, Nicaragua) which have formed a defensive bloc
-in return Yucatan (Belize/Guatemala/southern Mexico) gets guarantee of independence/protection from strengthening Mexico.
-US diplomatic pressure fails, invasion goes ahead. Bolivarian Federation gets most: Costa Rica, Nicaragua and some of Honduras.
-Railways west/east as well as across Isthmus start being built.
-informal alliance + trade and similar politics leads to gradual union into privileged province of the now (Conf)ederation

WW1:
-Late (1916?) intervention on side the of Germany, blocking Panama canal to Allies (but not USA), in exchange for promise of capital and industrial/technological aid after war
-French/British Guyana seized, Jamaica invaded.
-This worries USA and encourages their intervention as well in 1917
-Naval skirmishes in Gulf of Mexico, Federation have inferior navy but avoid losses through tactics. US Marine landing in Panama is surrounded and massacred.
-When war with Germany ends in 1918 (later than historically?), Federation continues the war alone.
-USA puts pressure on Mexico to allow troops through in late 1918, Federation invades central Mexico and defeats American divisions.
-Early 1920 US troops push to Belize/Guatemala line, Brazil is on the verge of joining Allies, but approaching US Presidential Election/unpopular losses force peace treaty.
-British/French regain provinces.
-Federation forced to demilitarize canal, toll limit, but remains owner and in political control of Panama.
-Mexico regains it's southern provinces, population movements to Belize/Guatemala. Mexico to be a buffer state.

Inter-war:
-Revanchism and anti-American sentiment increases. Radical nationalists take power, start industrialization/modernization program.
-Mexico turns social-democrat, alienating more isolationist Republican USA.

WW2:
-After US oil ban on Japan for China war, Federation allows oil shipments to Japan, angering Roosevelt and helping conquest of China.
-In exchange, Japan provides technological aid (naval construction techs)


Other ideas:

should something be done about Philippines?
add history to account for Haiti/Dominican Republic... Haiti uprisings failed/remained French?
what kind of relations with Brazil?


Stats stuff:

Bolivarian provinces: 16 million inhabitants
Central American province: 3 million inhabitants
Haiti/Dominican province: 4 million inhabitants
Yucatan province: 5 million inhabitants (+4 million in 'lost provinces')
Total 28 million (32 million with Mexican provinces)

Manpower gain half of Italy's
Standard of living about half way between Western Europe and historical S America

 

[DesertSnow]

It seems to me that you want your new nation to have been a protagonist in 19th-20th century. Personally, i think that your story is far too "glorious-idealistic" to be realistic (by the way: poets?). Furthermore, i don't believe that the allies in WW1 would have allowed for an annoying enemy to exit the war relatively unscathed.

Of course, my objections concerning the background of this nation are unimportant. I will try out this mod as soon as you finish it. Good luck!

 

[unmerged(96727)]

It seems to me that you want your new nation to have been a protagonist in 19th-20th century. Personally, i think that your story is far too "glorious-idealistic" to be realistic (by the way: poets?). Furthermore, i don't believe that the allies in WW1 would have allowed for an annoying enemy to exit the war relatively unscathed.

Of course, my objections concerning the background of this nation are unimportant. I will try out this mod as soon as you finish it. Good luck!

Yes, I am trying to make it realistic while creating a plausible 5th power with an interesting history.

For post-WW1 I could add that the Confederacy paid lot in reparations. As well as losing Mexican provinces which were heavily invested in pre-war.

Added tech teams, leaders, ministers and changed provinces, was doing OOB but some bug is now preventing me from loading the scenario... got the backups, so I can work back and find it.