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De Savage

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Jul 14, 2005
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I wanted to test how historically accurate HOI3 engine is to simulate casualties. The final conclusion is simply amazing!

7tp_5.jpg


I started the demo as Germany.

I made few minister changes, changed many of the leaders in OKW theater. Finally I detached all OKW air divisions and managed them manually. Also I wanted to try how AI will work, if army groups are detached and given own goal inside Poland.

OB West was given order to defend. Also most of the naval units were detached and controlled manually.

More to come...
 
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I writed down every killed in battles. My focus is on Poland campaign so West Front casualties are filtered out.

First main interest was how much air bombing can make casualties, but I writed down every battle report casualties and put them to Excel sheet.

...many hours later...

Campaign lasted 51 days, unfortunately demo crashed to desktop maybe only day or two before Warsaw was captured. So this casualty report is almost full Poland campaign.
 
Air war

I gaved orders to air division manually, but didn't touch their organisations. I didn't like how my air divisions were organised, but didn't care either. This is casualty test afterall. :)

It seems air doctrines and tech level play a major role. Germany didn't have a air superiority, but it was able to inflict much more casualties compared to Polish air force.

Total casualties (KIA) by air bombing

Germany: 7,806
Poland: 37,250

German air force made minimum of six (6) air bombings every day and maximum "sorties" per day was 18.

Note: I didn't keep on eye of weather, this probably have huge effect on how many missions can be made. Also I rebased my air division few time, so this will have effect too.

Average Poland KIA every day by air was 730.

kiapoland.jpg


Number of daily casualties varied from 306 to 1,318.

It is very important that you keep on eye new captured airfields. After rebasing my air divisions to new airfields, bombings made more casualties per day. This is because in HOI3 air divisions can make several sorties per day. The closer the airfield, more missions can be flown.

Note: I can't wait having the full game and building new airfields. It seems like in real life, that short range close support aircrafts like Ju-87 Stuka is more deadly if there is a short range. IRL these were able to fly 4-5 sorties per day and ruin the allied day.

Polish were able to harass by air from beginning to the end (51st day). This is probably because in demo air units are mixed with bombers and fighters. It might be better to make few 'pure fighter' units to intercept Polish fighters.

Polish were able to bomb German units and inflict avagerage 153 KIA every day.
 
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Ground war

My main focus was in the air war, but I did write down all the casualties from ground war aswell.

Total KIA by ground war

Poland: 48,061 (avg. 942 per day)
Germany: 21,636 (avg. 424 per day)

Largest battle casualties were 2636 (Poland) and 1350 (Germany).

Most battles were between a division or two and casualties were counted in hundreds. Battle casualties feel very authentic compared to real results.
 
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Conclusion

It's time to my make some conclusions by the numbers presented here.

polandcampaignmapsmall.jpg


Poland campaign (HOI3 demo)

Germany KIA: 29,442
Poland KIA: 85,311

Poland campaign (historical)

Germany KIA: 16,000
Poland KIA: 66,300

My test-campaign ended in CTD few days before all needed provinces were captures. Sad but true. Casualties are still close to historical records.

Air power is extremely potential in HOI3. All the casualties influcted by Germany to Poland 44 percent was done by air! This is probably too high compared to historical records. Maybe air power in HOI3 is little too overpowered, but I couldnt find historical figures to compare this.

My early campaign progressed very slowly and even poorly for Germans. This is the reason behind high casualties. Probably next time I can get less KIAs.

KIA ratio

In demo German ratio was 1/3 (1 German KIA to 3 Polish KIA)

Historically ratio was close to 1/4.

Playing tips and final conclusion

hoi3.jpg

First weeks of the campaign progressed slowly. September 22nd and Danzig is still on Polish hands.

Theatre AI handles whole theatres better than single army groups. It's better not to detach army groups (at least in demo Poland campaign). After reattaching army groups to OKW theatre command HQ campaign made better progress.

Air power is very potential. To make best of it I deattached all air units and gave orders manually. Remember to rebase air units as soon as possible to closest airfields. After rebasing my air units to closer airfield, casualty number inflicted rised about 50 percent.

More information about Poland Campaign:

Here is the Excel sheet and all the numbers: http://www.filefactory.com/file/ah0f6ac/n/Poland_campaign_zip

exceli.jpg

Screenshot of the Excel sheet used...


http://www.achtungpanzer.com/articles/polcamp.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland_(1939)

Note about references: My estimated KIA figures are from Osprey-series Poland 1939 The birth of Blitzkrieg book. Actung Panzer website gives German KIA casualties 8,082 to 10,582. Wikipedia article give also German KIA number 16,343. Usually I prefer using books for source.
 
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Thanx guys. :)

Wait 'till I can get my hands on full product. Germany AAR will come!
 
Very good work. It was interesting to read.

Air power is extremely potential in HOI3. All the casualties influcted by Germany to Poland 44 percent was done by air! This is probably too high compared to historical records. Maybe air power in HOI3 is little too overpowered, but I couldnt find historical figures to compare this.

Most likely that is very close to the real thing. Airpower was sometimes overwhelming - especially during more intense fighting and during the last phase of the Battle at Bzura (second largest battle of the campaign at Tomaszów Lubelski was fought with much smaller involvement of the Luftwaffe).
Many divisions suffered highest losses during the air attacks e.g. 20th Infantry Division (Baranowicka) lost more than 1000 men while retreating during daytime and only because exhausted Germans were unable to pursue it it survived and regrouped in Warsaw.

Some estimate the losses from German airpower as close to 50 %, though that must include many wounded who died before or after they were captured.
It also is most likely responsible for at least 500 German fatalities e.g. during the battle at Bzura possibly as many as 500 German POWs (several thousands Germans were captured during the battle by the Poles) from released 3000+ men were killed by Luftwaffe.
There might be some other instances of friendly fire losses.


hoi3.jpg

First weeks of the campaign progressed slowly. September 22nd and Danzig is still on Polish hands.

It is because the map is poorly made, but better than before.
Large scale fighting in the are was concluded with the fall of Oksywie on 19th September (Hel held to 2nd October).

Air power is very potential. To make best of it I deattached all air units and gave orders manually. Remember to rebase air units as soon as possible to closest airfields. After rebasing my air units to closer airfield, casualty number inflicted rised about 50 percent.

Very interesting - something worth remembering. :)



More information about Poland Campaign:



http://www.achtungpanzer.com/articles/polcamp.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland_(1939)

Note about references: My estimated KIA figures are from Osprey-series Poland 1939 The birth of Blitzkrieg book. Actung Panzer website gives German KIA casualties 8,082 to 10,582. Wikipedia article give also German KIA number 16,343. Usually I prefer using books for source.

Achtung Panzer doesn't count the missing in action which were later found dead or wounded with a number of German soldiers liberated by the Soviets and later transfered to the Reich.


Both numbers do not include casualities suffered after 30th September and some earlier losses.
IN addition casualities among the Border Guards, Danzig militias and SS and volunteer irregulars (and sabotage groups) which amount up to 1000 were not counted.
Especially in Danzig, Gdynia, Upper Silesia and during some fighting in the Reich when Polish units crossed the pre-war border.


Overall I am really suprised that the loses are so much realitic - without the Red Army crossing the border (which caused and suffered sizable losses too) and relatively lame AI.
It seems that fighting is more difficult in HoI III. I will check it later myself. :)

For now it is good to know about such details.