I posted this in the developer diaries:
Children's death rates
Children had about a 12-20% chance of dying the first year followed by a 1-1.2% chance of dying every year until they were 15 (High Aristocracy and villagers in southern England). The Burgers in Geneva seem to have had a 3.5-3.6% death rate until they were 20. Even small differences in percentages lead dramatically higher rates of deaths.
Twins
I believe the natural rate of getting twins is around 1 in 80 for Europe. Identical twins about 1 in 300. Triplets about 1 in 8000.
If you have twins the chance of them both growing up is something like 60%. The chance of running into the twin "problem" is 1 in 133 for twins and 1 in 500 for identical twins. Then since this is only a problem with male twins you've got a 1 in 266 and 1 in 1000 chance (actually a bit lower since male children are more common). Not impossible to occur in a game but unlikely to happen to a human player.
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Women
I can't find any decent numbers on death in childbirth. I have found some information that about 40% women reached age 40, 60% of men. Given the superior immune system and the other biological advantages women have this difference can probably be explained wholly with childbirth. I would guess you can guessimate an average 20 year "window" of opportunity (15-35) to give birth to children. The older the woman gets the larger the chance of imbeciles being born, as you all probably more a woman contributes not only her genes but also a cell plasma, which will degrade over time. But this information is useless without the following information.
->How many children did they give birth to on average or miscarry?
->What is the chance of death or sterility associated with repective problem?
->What is the chance of a women being sterile to start off with?
->What is the risk in late childbirth of getting an moronic or handicapped child?
Men
What about male sterility? This is rather serious, even though the Queen, Duchess or Countess is perfectly capable of solving this problem, but it may cause problems in the feature.
Anyone got access to medline?
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Update of above:
source
Approximately 3% of all children born in the U.S. have a major malformation at birth. Many more show problems of developmental origin with time, e.g., 6-7% by 1 year of age and 12-14% by school age
Question is if this can be used an approximation for birth defects in the Middle Ages, and how many of the "problems of developmental origin" are actually real problems for a person in the Middle Ages....
I would guess that the 3% is definately a good base rate for problem children, either deformed which makes them lose "charisma", or higher mortality rate or simply very stupid.
Increasing it to 10% would require more detailed modelling, e.g. serious problems and minor problems.
Children's death rates
Children had about a 12-20% chance of dying the first year followed by a 1-1.2% chance of dying every year until they were 15 (High Aristocracy and villagers in southern England). The Burgers in Geneva seem to have had a 3.5-3.6% death rate until they were 20. Even small differences in percentages lead dramatically higher rates of deaths.
Twins
I believe the natural rate of getting twins is around 1 in 80 for Europe. Identical twins about 1 in 300. Triplets about 1 in 8000.
If you have twins the chance of them both growing up is something like 60%. The chance of running into the twin "problem" is 1 in 133 for twins and 1 in 500 for identical twins. Then since this is only a problem with male twins you've got a 1 in 266 and 1 in 1000 chance (actually a bit lower since male children are more common). Not impossible to occur in a game but unlikely to happen to a human player.
-------------------------------
Women
I can't find any decent numbers on death in childbirth. I have found some information that about 40% women reached age 40, 60% of men. Given the superior immune system and the other biological advantages women have this difference can probably be explained wholly with childbirth. I would guess you can guessimate an average 20 year "window" of opportunity (15-35) to give birth to children. The older the woman gets the larger the chance of imbeciles being born, as you all probably more a woman contributes not only her genes but also a cell plasma, which will degrade over time. But this information is useless without the following information.
->How many children did they give birth to on average or miscarry?
->What is the chance of death or sterility associated with repective problem?
->What is the chance of a women being sterile to start off with?
->What is the risk in late childbirth of getting an moronic or handicapped child?
Men
What about male sterility? This is rather serious, even though the Queen, Duchess or Countess is perfectly capable of solving this problem, but it may cause problems in the feature.
Anyone got access to medline?
--------------------------------------
Update of above:
source
Approximately 3% of all children born in the U.S. have a major malformation at birth. Many more show problems of developmental origin with time, e.g., 6-7% by 1 year of age and 12-14% by school age
Question is if this can be used an approximation for birth defects in the Middle Ages, and how many of the "problems of developmental origin" are actually real problems for a person in the Middle Ages....
I would guess that the 3% is definately a good base rate for problem children, either deformed which makes them lose "charisma", or higher mortality rate or simply very stupid.
Increasing it to 10% would require more detailed modelling, e.g. serious problems and minor problems.
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