Explaining the epo_trade event file

[MattyG]

The Trade War – A Synopsis


One of the event cycles added in the recent beta was the Trade War, a late-game event cycle that pits the Europeans against the new American states in a game chicken where the stakes are high. The file, epo_trade, is difficult to read because of all the conditional events and diplomatic elements. In addition, as long as the event cycle makes in past the beta testing, additional events are intended for the flow-on effects in the Caribbean, South America and the Iberian peninsula. For now, we are just testing the main structure.Here is an overview.


Trigger
The trigger for the event cycle is the existence of three out of four independent nations on the east coast of North America: Quebec, Massachusetts, Republic of Free Provinces and Louisiana. It will occur any time three of them exist between 1780 and 1810. Depending on what happens with Vinland and the Haudenosaunee, they may be included within the triggering structure.

The Cloth Crisis
The first event triggers as a Cloth Crisis, with the independent states repealing tariffs imposed on local cloth and textile production which favoured European producers. The event is for whomever owns the CoT in Flandern. If there is no CoT there then it triggers for the CoT in Liguria. If Flandern exists but turns down leadership in the Cloth Crisis, then it passes not to Genoa, but to Mecklemburg. If Genoa or Mecklemburg decide not to face off against the Americans, the entire event cycle ends and the lesser of the negative events hits Europe, with most of the textile and CoT provinces taking tax hits and about six manufactories disappearing. It triggers positive increases for all east coast cotton provinces.

The Europeans Search for Allies
If Flandern or Liguria/Mecklemburg deicde to force the issue of the Americans reinstating the tariffs, events trigger for Ulster, Morbihan, Liguria, Mecklemburg in search of support. As long as at least 3 (or 2 for Liguria/Mecklemburg) support the idea, then the others are forced in and a Declaration of Flander/Genoa/Mecklemburg is drafted and sent to the Americas. The leader gains DIP and VP, everyone loses trade tech and goes up in Mwercantilism. If the concept is rejected, the same series of negative events trigger, the leader loses VP and DIP and the cycle ends. Again, nice events for the cotton provinces.

The Ball in America’s Court
With the Republic of Free Provinces taking the lead (or Quebec with no RFA or if RFA turns it down) the game of chicken continues. For the Americans it needs three to support facing down the Europeans. If not, the status quo is maintained, Mercantilism goes up for the Americans too, who also lose DIP for cow towing to the Europeans. Otherwise, the Americans up the ante, escalating the tariff war to other goods. Pock, the ball goes back to Europe.

Testing Europe’s Resolve
The American counter-response and escalated demands are sent back to whomever was the original leader (Flandern/Liguria/Mecklemburg). They have a chance to backdown again, or to impose tariffs on American goods entering Europe. If they back down, the basic negative events for Europe/positive events for America event effects occur, and with increased loss of DIP and VP for the leader. Otherwise, the game goes to its final stage and is back to the RFA (or Quebec).

A Final Decision
Likewise, the Americans can still back down one last time, but the stakes are higher. If they don’t, then the stronger negative effect events trigger for Europe and a negative effects event series triggers for the east coast states. The Europeans lose about 12 manus, bigger and broader tax base hits, and the Americans take tax hits to their fur and cotton provinces.

The effects of the cycle are never reversed as the declaration and its effects are considered to remain in place beyond the time of EU2.


The best the Euopeans can hope for is that the cobble together their alliance and the Americans backdown, gaining them DIP, VP and maintaining the current tax levels. At worst, Europe loses tax values galore and industries collapse under tariffs and competion.

The cycle is intended not only to add a layer of richness to the end game but to add a cool layer of diplomacy to the period. As Flandern, will those players controlling the CoTs in Ulster, Liguria and the others actually support you? They said they would, but if you hit the button for action_a “These rebels have taken things far enough” and they actually respond by turning you down, then your DIP score goes through the floor and you take the trade and Mercantism hits but the others do not. Egg on yer face. Ditto for the Americans.

The default for the ai is always to escalate, never to backdown, but there are numbers required to force events to continue and that 12% chance of action_b can always come up to derail your plans.

It should also add a layer of intrigue in the new world. Assuming a network of owned areas, there can be now a reason for allowing a revolter to appear, if it helps trigger a cycle that will hurt an opponent more than you. At least, that’s the idea.

MattyG

 

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Who works on the plantations?

 

[DSMyers1]

In the latest beta there do not seem to be any events to create the new nations, at least not strong ones. I played Eire, and had most of North America, and only had a few events that gave +2 revolt risk, essentially one for each region I had claimed. These were not sufficient to give me actual revolt risk.

 

[Incompetent]

The Cloth Crisis
The first event triggers as a Cloth Crisis, with the independent states repealing tariffs imposed on local cloth and textile production which favoured European producers.

So are these tariffs imposed on American cloth being sold in Europe? If so, wouldn't the tariffs be levied at European ports, and thus beyond American control? Or are you saying that they've had eg a production quota imposed on them, like China had until very recently, where they're expected to control their own levels of production?

Also, if I do my Industrial Revolution events, Scotland is likely to be producing mountains of cheap garments (mostly woollen, but in Lancashire cotton was the main material), so it has no need for tariffs/subsidies. Indeed, it would be likely to face protectionist measures from continental powers, in a desperate bid to save their own textile industries. The same could be true if any other countries industrialise, but I doubt this would happen in America before it did in Europe. So how cheaply would the American states really be able to make cloth? I know they have plenty of cotton, but they'd also need to spin and weave it, both labour-intensive processes before the advent of new technology. If the answer is 'no cheaper than Europe, once shipping is taken into account' then the Europeans have no need to impose tariffs. Perhaps a 'cotton crisis' would be better - cotton was grown in Europe, but might well have been outcompeted by the great American plantations. Also cheap cotton would affect the demand for wool.

This does give me an idea for my 'Scottish Atlantic Company' event, though - it could involve the cotton trade. If things get nasty, the SAC could go bankrupt, hurting the Scottish economy if Scotland has invested in it.

 

[MattyG]

In the latest beta there do not seem to be any events to create the new nations, at least not strong ones. I played Eire, and had most of North America, and only had a few events that gave +2 revolt risk, essentially one for each region I had claimed. These were not sufficient to give me actual revolt risk.

This is an issue with the misc_colony file, not the trade war.

It comes back to how deterministic we want to be. The previous version had more difficult ownership triggers for the independence events. So I cut those down considerably. They also had requirements that one of the Emigration events had triggered, meaning that if you had recently captured the area you were immune. Finally, there are Centralization triggers. If you are sufficiently decentralized, people in your colonies have more control over their immediate lives and are not going to struggle for self rule. I agree with this, but if we want to ensure these nations have a chance of emerging, we could lower or remove the entralization component of the triggers. The other choice is that we add an additional trigger component, that of countrysize. Thus, nations that are bigger have to be more and more decentralized in order to avoid independence movements. By the time a nation is 200 province+ then its impossible to avoid them.

In fact, I think this is what we ought to do.

But for the current game you are playing, either you are Decentralized in your game, OR the evnts are simply not triggering correctly. In which case we have a bigger problem that I don't yet understand.

 

[MattyG]

So are these tariffs imposed on American cloth being sold in Europe? If so, wouldn't the tariffs be levied at European ports, and thus beyond American control? Or are you saying that they've had eg a production quota imposed on them, like China had until very recently, where they're expected to control their own levels of production?

Also, if I do my Industrial Revolution events, Scotland is likely to be producing mountains of cheap garments (mostly woollen, but in Lancashire cotton was the main material), so it has no need for tariffs/subsidies. Indeed, it would be likely to face protectionist measures from continental powers, in a desperate bid to save their own textile industries. The same could be true if any other countries industrialise, but I doubt this would happen in America before it did in Europe. So how cheaply would the American states really be able to make cloth? I know they have plenty of cotton, but they'd also need to spin and weave it, both labour-intensive processes before the advent of new technology. If the answer is 'no cheaper than Europe, once shipping is taken into account' then the Europeans have no need to impose tariffs. Perhaps a 'cotton crisis' would be better - cotton was grown in Europe, but might well have been outcompeted by the great American plantations. Also cheap cotton would affect the demand for wool.

This does give me an idea for my 'Scottish Atlantic Company' event, though - it could involve the cotton trade. If things get nasty, the SAC could go bankrupt, hurting the Scottish economy if Scotland has invested in it.

I can certainly change the title and flavour of the events. I am not especially attached to the Cloth part of it. However, it made initial sense. As you say, there are no cloth provinces in the new world, just clothing raw materials (furs and cotton). So I have positted that they have been importing all of their cloth and clothing from Europe at the expense of local industry. And I invented an idea that as the 1700s drew on it was partly forced on them by the parent nation to maintain industries at 'home', the place they mainly care about.

When these conditions change with the end of European control in the east coast, the easy ride for the merchants and the producers is over. Now, we can't change production through events, nor can we effect CoT incomes, so I have had it reduce provincetax. This game generalises everything in economics, so who will tell the difference? Yer ducats go down, that's the main thing. The effects of the European producers - now more significantly challenged by New World producers - is also that the bigger production areas (read: manufactories) collapse (read: manufactories are lost). If the conflagration escalates, then the impacts are greater as the range of goods is more (read: more provincetax reductions and more manus lost).

The reason there are losses is because trade shifts and trade is reduced when there are tariffs. The game doesn't reflect this very well, with trade incomes unchangeable, CoT tariffs (3/year/merchant) not even changing over time, let alone because of events. So, we have to use provincetax. Hell, there isn't even a command to force a trade embargo.

The Scottish industrial events sound interesting. This IS Aberration, so having it occur earlier than historical could be appropriate, but the event shouldn't just 'happen' but require prior tech levels and guided decisions/investment. But it would be very early, as industrialisation is already factored into Infra, and Infra level 10 is presumed to be a tech level beyond the normal 1820 game end date.

 

[Incompetent]

The Scottish industrial events sound interesting. This IS Aberration, so having it occur earlier than historical could be appropriate, but the event shouldn't just 'happen' but require prior tech levels and guided decisions/investment. But it would be very early, as industrialisation is already factored into Infra, and Infra level 10 is presumed to be a tech level beyond the normal 1820 game end date.

I'd say that by the Napoleonic era, real-life Britain was already reaping the benefits of industrialisation, and I don't plan to have it the main event any earlier than the late 18th century for Aberrated Scotland. But when exactly it happens will depend on both Infra tech and player choices, going right back to enclosure in the early part of the game.

Industrialisation is considered 'post-1820' in-game because for most countries, it happened in the mid-19th century or later. But Britain was an important exception, and it was Britain's huge head-start on industrialisation that laid the foundation for its dominant position in the 19th century.

 

[MattyG]

I'd say the Industrial Revolution was well underway by 1820 in real-life Britain, and I don't plan to have it any earlier than the late 18th century for Scotland. But when exactly it happens will depend on both Infra tech and player choices, going right back to enclosure in the early part of the game.

I don't think that's really true from my readings. The main period of industrialisation, even in Britain, began after the end of the Napoleanic war and built steadily toward the 1850s. Even in the 1820s the majority of production in England was still cottage based industries rather than factory based. And it is also part of Infra 8, 9, 10 and the increasing production bonuses you get from these levels. Not to mention the building of Goods manufactories.

Still, as I said, it sounds interesting, and you clearly have the right idea with it being something the player builds towards. How do youplan to express the end result?

 

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I don't think that's really true from my readings. The main period of industrialisation, even in Britain, began after the end of the Napoleanic war and built steadily toward the 1850s. Even in the 1820s the majority of production in England was still cottage based industries rather than factory based. And it is also part of Infra 8, 9, 10 and the increasing production bonuses you get from these levels. Not to mention the building of Goods manufactories.

Still, as I said, it sounds interesting, and you clearly have the right idea with it being something the player builds towards. How do youplan to express the end result?

Another great series of events. Is the file in the latest Beta?

And the Republic of Free Provinces, is that the rump of the exodus of dutch Calvinists which I am working on, or is that something else? Have I missed a Thread?

 

[MattyG]

Another great series of events. Is the file in the latest Beta?

And the Republic of Free Provinces, is that the rump of the exodus of dutch Calvinists which I am working on, or is that something else? Have I missed a Thread?

mikl, it was announced in the list of what the beta contained. Yes, it's in the latest beta! The Republic of Free Provinces is a revolter that can emerge from the claim areas of Roanoke, Chesapeake, Georgia or Carolina. Have a read of the USA event and leader files to see what it 'becomes', although I have written mostly structural events for it. It gets a lot of good leaders and monachs and can be quite multi-cultural. The events that can bring it about are in misc_colony, mainly near the end where I placed the 150 or so new events for that file.

PS. Regarding the Hansa file - post now, tinker later, and let the suggestions flow.

 

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ok, ok, calm down