I stand correct then....but how could you convert ships from vicky <1936 technology into 1938/1941 techonology?
that said, I begun to be more and more certain that we didn't have any change then to realistically win or survive the game... was there BTW any feelings during the conversion from vicky, that it was...well basicly pointless, knowing the results of the conversion and IC distribution?
With the tech buy you got a certain amount to spend and techs cost more if fewer vanilla nations had them or if they were ahead of time. I think I gave up on buying a few things that aren't vital to have in 1936 and can safely be researched in 37 or 38, like initial rockets or nuclear stuff, to get ahead of time battleships and interceptors.
Japan had a larger battleship fleet at conversion (18 to my 14) so I felt I needed the technology edge to keep him from contemplating betraying me. As long as I had the SHBBs and kept casually talking occasionally in the chat about how battleships would always beat carriers in the Indian Ocean monsoons I felt fairly secure he wouldn't turn on me. Otherwise... well, you saw what he did the instant they got sunk.
And looking at my early saves it looks like from the beginning until the last save I had in early 1939 it looks like the following was the major production:
-~30 capital ship brigades (secondary armament in 6x6 almost complete; was going to follow up with fire control (which had later tech date) once the first serial finished)
-~30 infantry brigades (mainly engineers, one for each stack of beach guards with artillery brigades I converted with on the others)
-72 infantry divisions (long serials still in progress, all got brigaded with art)
-4 mot-SPart divisions (one long serial going; I was going to keep groups of 3 here and there behind the beaches to form a mobile reserve against landings while leaving the plain infantry on VOV)
-2 interceptor divisions (recently begun long serial)
-28 base IC (with the last 14 set to finish in a week)
-infrastructure in the key Egypt corridor (necessary for divisional ESE due to lack of starting infra due to lack of v2 railroads due to lack of coal, and an inland capital with poor infra causes terrible ESE in AOD

)
-maybe 12 or so SPART to brigade up my starting motorized and light armored
-I had recently finished researching medium armor (ahead of time is harder in AOD, so it was kind of late) and laid down two serials. Retooling was almost over but none had finished yet.
-9 transports (I did lay down a 99 serial of these, so I guess I built a few ships after all... forgot about em).
-One level of rocket test site. I don't remember why I built this... maybe I had bad rocket teams and was worried about turbojets.
That's about what I produced. I'd been timing armor to research lvIII medium about when my IC finished... a couple things interrupted such as Kongo not choosing its IC in events and me having to send them tons of supplies to stop them starving, so it ended up being delayed a bit.
In same three years I also moved hawk six times (from one click dove to full hawk), interventionism five times (from one shy of full isolationist to just past halfway) and I got an event that moved me a couple towards standing army. I had a custom head of state to make that easier (everyone else went for the low hanging fruit HOS, so that was a big leg up).
I think it was a fairly good buildup overall given Ethiopia's tight resources compared to the superpowers. Obviously I would have liked more, but I just didn't have the IC for fancy things like carriers. Long-term I was hoping to afford six or nine of them around 1941 when I could switch from armored to cheaper mech-inf divisions - I was planning to only build around 27 or so armor total for countering enemy spearheads, and mostly rely on mech-inf after 42 for affordability reasons.
As for the second question... it was obvious from the get go that if Fiv and Odd remained teamed up against us it would be a gamble. I had some tactical/gameplay tricks I wanted to try to get some sort of edge (Eth's superior sliders were a result of one of them that I don't think anybody else ever caught on to), but obviously the odds were against that if their alliance held together. At the beginning of the game Fiv alone had nearly as much IC as both Africans put together. I had several different diplomatic routes in mind, one of which was pretending to switch sides and selling info to Dano to try to get him to join us, one of which was giving up all hope of victory and actually switching sides just to be on the winning team, and one of which was trying to split Germany and Russia. I probably would have tried to keep all of those lines in the water at once, but as it happened I didn't really have time to properly pursue any of them due to my work schedule. And they were all long shots if the German-Spanish alliance stayed. They got most of the way towards victory already in mid/late v2.