General outline of the rise of Turkey:
Very near future: Turkey intervenes militarily in the festering civil war in Syria. Turk-backed rebels overthrow Assad regime. Much rejoicing. Turkish firms invest heavily in rebuilding and modernizing Syria. Turkish "soft power" puts Syria firmly in Turkey's orbit.
Late 2010s: Tensions rise with Iran, which annexes Iraq. Turkey pursues nuclear program to counter Irans. With Assad gone, Syrian proxies in Lebannon lose power, replaced by Turk-friendly factions. Hezbollah becomes more isolated, then makes desperate bid to take over Lebanese government. Turkish and Syrian troops back government, put down revolt in brief, but very bloody, campaign. Hezbollah largely destroyed, but successor terror groups continue, such as the NeoAssassins. As in Syria, Lebannon experiences a development boom as Turkish investment pours in.
Early 2020s: Growing influence of Saudis and Iran drive Jordan into Turkish orbit for protection, Turkey becomes major player in Israel-Palestine conflict. West Bank and Jordan move into Turkish economic sphere. Neo-Ottomanism reaches its logical conclusion, as H.I.H. Prince Muhammet Zakaria AlSek Efendi, a prominent construction tycoon and member of the house of Osman, is elected President of Turkish Republic. Turkish government legally recognizes former titles of nobility (as contemporary Ireland does, for example). President Muhammet Zakaria Osmanluk eventually succeeds as Padishah, insists that the title has no bearing on politics.
Mid 2020s: Breakthroughs gradually made in Irsael-Palestine deadlock. Levantine Economic Union formed, further integrating the Turkish Block. After years of slowly drifting apart, Turkey makes final departure from NATO, vows continued friendship with Europe and US.
Late 2020s: Palestinian state proclaimed. Tensions with Israel flare up, but war is averted with carefull diplomacy. President Padishah Muhammet awarded Nobel peace prize. Constitution for Federated Levantine States proposed, endorsed by Turkish proxy governments.
2030: FLS constitution endorsed by majority of voters. Some dispute fairness of the election, but it is generally accepted as legitimate. Padishah Muhammet unanimously elected President by High Council. Ten year term of office begins.
Current status: Though nominally just one among many member states, Turkey dominates the others, to the point that the formal FLS is informally referrred to as "Turkey" much as the USSR was called Russia. Though there is some grumbling in the smaller member states, most have seen both civil liberties and living standards improve drastically under Turkish proxy governments for years before the union. Jingoism is running high in Turkey proper, as many feel that the country is finally becoming a world power again. Rebuilding and integrating the moribund economies of places like Palestine has been the main focus of the neo-Ottoman governments, though simmering conflicts with Iran and Arabia remain. Being based on population, the High Council is weighted in Turkey's favor, and Turks continue to make up most of the economic and political elite. But a growing generation of successfull Syrians, Lebanese, Jordanians and Palestinians are starting to take their place in the corridors of power.
Pro-business economic policies and moderately conservative social ones have been the hallmark of the President-Padishah's administration in Turkey, and are largely expected to continue. Heavy investment in STEM education is starting to pay dividends, as Turkey builds the human capital it needs to modernize economies held back by a "lost century" of war, isolation and stagnation. The President-Padishah has held strong to the aim of "no problems" foreign policy, seeking to settle or avoid conflicts with Turkey's neighbors, a position that has become problematic as these neighbors emerge as powers in their own right. Relations with the EU, Israel and US are not as close as they once were, but remain cordial.
