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These are my choices
1.Persia (my preference)
2.Hugenotte France
3.Morocco
 
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Hi afaslizo this are my choices :

1)Poland-Lithuania Commonwealth
2)Kingdom of Scotland
3)Republic of Venice
 
In order of preference:

3: Venice
1: Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth
2: Netherlands
 
Listed by preference-
1st-Tuscany
2nd-PLC
3rd-Kingdom of Scotland

(Note: This was EDITED)

By Tier-
1st-PLC
2nd-Scotland
3rd-Tuscany
 
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French affairs in 1640
The deceicive battle for catholic survival​

In the last one hundred years French royal power centralized the kingdom and knit together a massive force to be finally unleashed against Europe. The last major internal problem, the Hugenottes, proved merely a minor nuisiance by the start of the century. The French kingdom, administered by the genius cardinal Richelieu, would certainly enter in a new age of prosperity, master of their own fate and able to destroy the accursed Habsburg alliance that threatened to make its borders undefensible forever. Or so the small French elite, much smaller compared to other European countries, thought. But as the fulminant protestant victories in Northern Germany spelt doom to the might auf Austrian Habsburgs the Kingdom of France were confronted with a spectre of the past they thought be put to rest already.

The major trade and commercial heart of France is the Bouce, a mostly agrarian and easily navigateable farmland around Paris, forming the western end of the European Plain and easily connected to the Low Countries and Atlantic harbors. Calvinism, the christian sect the Hugenottes align to, is deeply invested in merchant and burgher circles throughout this network and as the success of the Protestant Union becomes even more clear, Calvinism gets a major revival. The progress is overlooked at first as france actually prepare to strike at Spain to use the chance and also divert them from the Empire's internal struggle. At the heart of this preparation stands the retaking of La Rochelle, the only major Hugenotte city left. On it's famous walls the newly centralized power of France shall be tested and approved. In the end that ultimately proved to cornerstone to the fall of France, something thought unlikely to everyone around.

As the French royal forces push for the Atlantic port Hugenottes manage to surmount support for their cause throughout the Bouce by spreading fear of even greater centralization and unrightful tyranny of the king and his sinister ecclestial advisors. Giving the struggles in the Low Lands, the dissent to chaos in England and the turmoil in the empire the commerce orientated ruling class and decision makers join forces with the Hugenottes, trying to bring forth a new compromise. While aiming at stabilization and greater freedoms in return of support for the king for the good of all France the King sees that as a traitorous rebellion. The send-out negotiators are executed on spot, the campaign turned around to "put down the rebel scum" and proves to be an ultimate failure at all. The king succeeds in driving the population in the arms of the Calvinist faith - something even the Hugenottes did not envision or plan for and the king actually faces the major revolt he proclaimed wishing to subdue.

France is ripped apart. The wealthy north effectively slips out of royal control, while merchants, burghers, but also peasents and minor nobles join to protect themselves against the perceived tyrant. Europe is occupied otherwise but also stunned by the events. Underestimating the rebels the king attacks them headon with only a small expeditionary force fast assembled against Richelieu's warnings. Though the Hugenottes did not wish to the king is killed in battle with hired mercenaries and the Hugenottes reluctantely take the king's heirs hostage. Major conflict is unavoidable at this time. The warfare destroys the royal power and the fabric woven since the hundred years war. Brittany and Provence secede and as both sides weaken themselves the Spanish move in, annexing territories in a "re-"conquests consisting of Pyrenean borderlands and claims to former Burgundian territories. Much to their chargrin that costs them the war in the Empire and might also doom catholicism at all.

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Kingdom of France, Hugenotte France, Britanny and Provence as well as the occupied/annexed territories​

The stage is set and wether the outcome France might need a century to return to power. While both the remnants of the Empire and Kingdom of England envision the Kingdom of France as a natural and viable ally the premier catholic power - Spain - moved itself into a tight spot. If helping the Kingdom of France to recover the new Spanish conquests are in jeopardy and the Kingdom will certainly try to assert their imagined rights in Europe again. Helping the Hugenottes may though spell doom to the catholic church as it can't rest on Italy and Spain alone and already lost most of Germany. Spain can't be certain it will not spill over to Iberia either. Hoping that France further disintegrates does not seem to be realistic. Spain stares on, paralysed on what doing next.

For the Hugenottes the situation is more desperate in their inner perception than from the outside. They began as a simple protest for more rights and now they have to pacify all of France or be destroyed - so they imagine. While the control Paris and the economic centres of France they are vulnerable and deeply divided. They have no clear leaders, no real visions and no idea what they actually want to do now. For them an alliance with the rebellion in England might be a good option but binding them to other Europeans powers without having a real leadership or self reception on what they actually wish for is not preferable. The only foreign power they are deeply hostile too is the Spanish.

The Kingdom of France on the other hand has much of the old tools at hand. In theory the nobles bow to the king who rewards them and he uses his army to bring glory to France. Now France has no king anymore, only pretenders. The Duke of Orléans rules as regent from his city, contemporary capital of the kingdom. He wishes for help from the European monarchies to put down this revolt or at least from the catholic states. He knows that France will further discent into chaos if the momentum is not taken fast.

Britanny is free again and while not having a clue who should ascend to the throne or having all their desired territories back they are left in peace by the French contenders for power. Britanny can now escape the french clutches forever but it is weak alone and will likely sucked backed if having no external allies.

Provence is a semi-independent state under Spanish, papal and savoyan protection without saying in the matters of present and future.
 
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The British Isles
A study on self destruction​

the new century began with much promise for the Union of England and Scotland. United under a moderate monarch the conquest of ireland continued on a moderate advance. But under the cover of day-to-day politics the factions inside the parliament and those within both kingdoms, be they supporters of the king or not, were deeply divided. In secret the parliament suspected the scottish James wishing to bring England back to the catholic faith while many members of the elite still were not over the loss of power in France. When the Mayflower sunk just off the coast of Northern America in a suspicious incident and English colonial endeavors were set back prominently with other private endeavors to bring disgruntled minorities to the Americas being called off. Some fanatical parliament members even got so far to blame the thing James I. making the ridiculous attempt to link him to catholic struggle and Spain proclaiming the king sabotaged England in favor of Spain and the catholic church.

Many wonder how that dumb accusation could set the powder keg ablaze. But the fear of catholic scottish opression and the suspecting of a great catholic agenda to further sabotage the glorious English state led key figures to wonder if the king should not better servant to the parliament in all things, a merely representative head of state under firm control by the economical driving elite. The king, naturally, opposed such a sudden attempt deeply. Contrary to his French counterpart he though thought to reach a compromise with the parliament which took it as a sign of weakness and began to believe their own lies concerning the king's alliances.

A coup was staged by military forces loyal to the parliament and the king arrested. And with this the British Isles descended into madness. Recalled from Ireland and led by the royal heir Charles royalist batallions assembled to destroy the parliament and as Charles envisioned it dissolve it forever - to bring force what the parliamentary forces actually feared: the counterreformation. To access the situation the parliament reacted in a shocking response by executing the elder king James I. and forcible setting the fronts up. With no going back the country reluctantly divided itself in support of the different sides. The front lines drew out quite clearly in England but also in Ireland where the English territory was divided in support. The very contingents called back to England now had to embark again to face off a rebellion in Ireland.

And if that would not have been enough the ungrateful Irish - as they were seen by royalists and republicans both - had the guts to move and claim back lost territory, led by a strong Leinster. The civil war sides did not only find itselves in conflict with each other but also with a somewhat potent Irish offensive which was stopped just short of Dublin. Stopped at the price of most of southern England falling to the newly proclaimed Republic of England under the young but brilliant Lord Commander Thomas Fairfax who with now only 28 is the rising star of the new regime.

Finally that drove the Scottish home who abandoned their claimant Charles in droves because they took him responsible for the Civil War and all royalist failures. In a controversial move they elected his cousin James Stewart, Earl of Murray, as King James VII., a decision costing them all royalist English sympathies and leading to Charles' vow to bring all three rebellions - Republican, Irish and Scottish - down no matter the cost. Sensing their time to strike to be now a Cornish rebellion erupted though they are widely ignored as insignificant.

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Republic of England, Kingdom of England, Scotland, Munster, Cornwall, Leinster and Ulster in 1640​

Rid of the so-called "Mad Prince" Scotland stands free of the English affairs though the move was highly controversial. Aside from possible English revenge Scotland lives in fear of the awakening northern power of Denmark and the problem what it actually wants to be: A medium kingdom in the north of the British Isles, the leader of them, a player in Europe or someone getting profit out of the vast American wilderness to the west. At the moment Scotland faces a choice and has the freedom to pursue it.

The Kingdom of England is a conglomeration of strange bed fellows ranging from royalists over loyalists to conservative hardliners who are not happy with their leader but stuck with him as dumping him would destroy their power and common cause. They fear that Charles will led them to their graves but they are unable to compromise with their enemies or have to lose more if the old order falls completely. Thus they are stuck fighting the rebellion and the Irish even they do not really want to.

The Republic of England knows very well what it is and wants. They see the monarchy now as a thing of the past, easily discarded and feel proven right by the incapable prince Charles whose whole existence seems to be giving the coup against his father undeserved legitimacy. Apart from the Civil War the English Republicans still envision themselves masters of Britain and will certainly aspire to reach that power. For them protestant and calvinist forces in Europe, like the Hugenottes in France as well as the Netherlands are naturally allies.

Leinster does not envision what will come next. Actually a conglomeration of the "traditional" Irish kingdoms of Leinster and Connaught its driving force is the pushing out of the English as the historical chance presents itself. Her allies of Munster and Ulster though are weary of her motives as they - perhaps rightfully - suspect Leinster might attempt mastery of Ireland after a success. In that light the warring English factions or outside allies may even provide leverage to secure their independence.

Cornwall is not yet established enough to have acknowledgable domestic goals.
 
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My choices:

Second Tier:
Kingdom of Scotland

Third Tier:
The Duchy of Brittany
The Khanate of Crimea

Fourth Tier:
The Cornish Commonwealth
The Kingdom of Provence
 
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So in this timeline, is Scotland mostly catholic?

Edit: Also, some of the major players in 1640s Ireland

James Butler, Earl (later Marquess and Duke) of Ormonde
Loyalty: Royalist English
Ethnicity/Religion: Old English/Protestant

Bio: The leader of Royal English forces in Ireland, Butler is extremely loyal to the crown and a competent general. As the representative of the crown in Ireland, he had the already difficult task of trying to reconcile the interests of the Crown, the Gaelic aristocracy, his fellow Old English aristocrats (who unlike him are mostly catholics), and the new plantations of protestant English and scots.

Historically, when faced with the reality that he could no longer hold Dublin, he surrendered it to the Parlimentarians as the lesser evil, which he came to regret when said rebels eventually executed the King he served so faithfully. His loyalty and service to Charles' I & II would be rewarded greatly during the restoration.



Owen Roe O'Neill
Loyalty: Spain, Ulster
Ethnicity/Religion: Gaelic/Catholic

Bio:A nephew of Hugh O'Neill ("the Great O'Neill to the Irish) he followed him into exile and has spent his career serving in the Spanish army's Irish regiments. He'd served with distinction in the Eighty Years War, including a few heroic defenses of cities besieged by Dutch or French forces. He'd been active in several schemes aimed at encouraging Spain to invade Ireland.

Historically, in 1640 he was still in the Spanish service, with the O'Neill's in Ireland led by his kinsman Sir Felim O'Neill, who was largely pushed to the sidelines when Owen Roe landed with a band of veterans in 1642. Owen Roe was a larger than life figure who lead the northern irish armies through most of the war, but also an extremist who did not work well with others, especially some of his former comrades in Spain's Irish Brigades.

Felim O'Neill
Loyalty: Ulster
Ethnicity/Religion: Gaelic/Catholic

Bio: The leading O'Neill at the start of the rebellion, Felim was very different from Owen Roe. He was trained as a lawyer in England and tried to protect his people's lands from encroaching plantations legally. When civil war broke out, Sir Felim led a plot to seize Ulster from the Protestant settlers. It was successful as far as it went, but he swiftly lost control of the mobilized peasantry which set off a sectarian massacre that remains controversial in the 21st century. This has tainted his historical legacy and overshadowed his role as a comparatively moderate voice in the politics of Ulster and the Confederacy.

Thomas Preston
Loyalty: Leinster
Ethnic/Religion: Old English/Catholic

Bio: Like Owen Roe, Thomas Preston served in Spain's Irish Brigades in the 80 years war with distinction. The two Irish leaders managed to form an intense personal hatred for each other during those days, for reasons lost to history. As it happens, Thomas Preston is also the father-in-law of Sir Felim O'Neill, whose second wife is Preston's daughter. Like Owen Roe, he returned to his native soil after the rebellion was well under way. He would be placed in command of the armies in Leinster, where he received the most funding of the Irish armies, a source of constant irritation to the other generals. His record is decidedly mixed, losing major field battles but also leading some impressive siege defenses.

Garret Barry
Loyalty: Munster
Ethnic/Religion: Old English/Catholic

Bio: Much less famous than his fellow rebel leaders, Berry was also a professional soldier in the Spanish service during the 80 years war. He authored several books on how to train and discipline an army. This academic knowledge did not translate into actual performance in the field. His Irish levies would be routed by a smaller, better equipped force at the Battle of Liscarroll, after which Garret Barry was discredited as a leader and took no major role in the wars. By dumb luck, he happened to be in Ireland recruiting soldiers for Spain's Irish Brigades when the rebellion broke out.

Murrough O'Brien, Baron (later Earl) of Inichquin
Loyalty: Self
Ethnic/Religion: Gaelic/Protestant

Bio: A remarkable historical oddity, he is known to this day as Murchadh na dTóiteán ("of the conflagrations"), a nickname he has not yet earned in 1640. He is said to have studied war (but not actually fought for) with Spanish forces in Italy. As The O'Brien he's a direct descendant of Brian Boru and other O'Briens who ruled Thomond with de facto independence even after their nominal submission. He was fostered by, and married the daughter of, William St Leger, President of the English plantation in Munster, a man infamous for cruelty and harsh rule, who would die in 1642 having failed to suppress the revolt.

O'Brien supported the plantation process, even becoming vice-president of the Munster plantation, which in turn helped protect his lands from confiscation. Historically he first sided with the Royalists, leading their armies successfully against Garret Barry. With little material support from the King's government, he supported his troops mainly through pillaging and confiscations, earning him his nickname. Later, having been denied material support and feeling snubbed personally, he switched his allegiance to Parliament, and pillaged in their name. When Parlimentary troops actually began to campaign in Ireland, O'Brien and his army conquered the south of Ireland for himself, eventually returning to nominal allegiance to the Crown and an alliance with many of the more moderate catholic rebels. During the Cromwellian invasion, he attempted to get the remnants of Irish resitance to rally to him as the last line of defense, but being a protestant and having burned so many bridges (literal and metaphorical) he fled into exile.

He became involved in various plots, finding service in France. There he found his beliefs to be inconvenient to his ambition to lead France's Irish soldiers and lead a French backed future war in Ireland, so he converted to Catholicism, which helped him little there but would cause him enormous problems after the Restoration. Still he managed to weasel his way into Charles II's good graces, regaining his lands and titles and even commanding a small expeditionary force to support Portugal against Spain.
 
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Thank you for your efforts. Actually Scotland is the only medium to major country in Europe with a somewhat relaxed religious policy and no clear push for either faith. Another point why they do not actually wish to participate in the conflict.
 
Scandinavia
A tale of lions​

Although the Nordic countries looked like battling each other again at the birth of the century other oppertunities presented themselves. Instead the Polish-Swedish War began and because of that Sweden was unprepared to take the oppertunity to intervene into the empire in order to further her own baltic designs on time. Nevertheless the conflict brought Sweden Estonia and Livland as both sides agreed to an early peace in 1620 to take an oppertunity in the east. While the time might have been right again to intervene in the empire the isolated power of Russia - a new emerging threat on the eastern flank of the Swedish Realm - was brought to its knees when the last Khan of the Sibirians fled to Kazachstan - only to return with the greatest Horde Russia had to face since the days of the Mongolian wars. Within five years the whole Siberian colonization project was overrun and the army needed reinforcements from Russia proper which was given without a second thought.

That oppertunity led Russia fall victim to a still not exhausted Sweden seeking to bolster her lands in Finland and Estonia with depth. To finance and secure this campaign Livland was sold back to Poland while the Estonian Isle of Dagö was given to Denmark for money and a secret treaty of continued peace while both Nordic countries were engage far from each other. With their back and the funds secured Sweden took on the Russian rump state flooding the border garrisions and taking Kola, Karelia and Archangelsk by storm. Within a few months all of Russian's north was overrun. Desperately the Russians split their forces but as divided they proved unable to handle both threats. The young state crumbled and as the Commonwealth moved in for the kill to get a second chance after the lost Polish-Russian War it lost its unity again. The Russian unity was dissolved and now the victors simply had to gather and divide the spoils.

Sweden took the oppertunity to add Grand Duke of Novgorod to the titles of the king and enacted a lenient policy though the local elites were supplanted and Russian peasents freed to match the state in Sweden. This move while producing a major backlash from the ousted nobility drove the support for Sweden home. In fact after now almost two decades the Russians and Karelians in the newly conquered territories identify more with Sweden than with their past. Content with Poland taking the major blunt of Russian revanchism and with almost a decade of peace in the east Sweden is now ready for the fight for Nordic supremacy but . . .

Denmark reached a new height of power, prestige and certainly leverage. While the days of truly European power were thought long gone the Danish intervention in the Twenty Years War was an embolding success. With Sweden focused elsewhere Danish and Protestant German armies shattered the imperial might on the battlefield. On the sea the Danish fleet proved a stunning capability by blockading the Spanish Netherlands and sinking a reinforcement flotilla. While the full test against Spanish power was luckily avoided half of Europe is now in fear of the awakened Oldenburg Monarchy.

Some though may think that Denmark rushes headlong into another war. Christian IV. boldly declared himself master of the North and Baltic Seas directly antagonizing Sweden and the realms on the British Isles. While Denmark expanded her lands in northern Germany they are now regarded with suspicion by those on which behalf they intervened as self-styled protector of the faith. More even so because Denmark would certainly search a way to connect their holdings.

Denmark feels confident to face down her foes but not all at the same time. And wait - what has Sweden done when we were right looking the other way?

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Denmark and Sweden in 1640​

Sweden has a terminal dilemma. While its eastern front is somewhat secure now with the Commonwealth occupied in the east that moment may pass sooner than imagined. Sweden has no allies at the moment and most states are simply rivals because her ambition to rule the Baltic is widely known. It is not sure it can take on Denmark now especially not this Denmark with the prestige and fear they spread in Europe. Swedish revenues are smaller than the Danish and they must watch their budget more tightly so the wrong focus can spell doom to any Swedish strategy.

Denmark on the other hand must now adress the bold claims to supremacy in Nordic and Northern Atlantic affairs and deal with the threats against them rather sooner than later. A broad Danish delegation will attend the German Council in Weimar this year representing the German Duchies of Oldenburg, Holstein, Mecklenburg and Pommerania. While Christian might wish to integrate them proper into Denmark his German allies might not allow that this time. Furthermore they could form a new empire and while he has certainly aspirations to become its master there is no guarantee this new realm might not be directed against him.
 
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Thank you for doing this Afas :)
 
Protestant Germany
Empire's End​

With swift Imperial victory in the so-called Winter War Bohemia was brought back to Austria proper and no one envisioned the destruction of the Austrian-Bavarian-Spanish alliance just two years later near Coburg. The emperor now proclaimed the counterreformation which was implemented swiftly in Württemberg and Bohemia and pushed forward by Spanish forces in the west. The might of the Palatinate was soon crushed while protestant Northern Germany fred in the face of imperial might. When Christian of Denmark announced his intervention on behalf of the Protestant cause hope lifted yet again.

It was the military genius of the protestant ducal family of Saxe-Weimar which led the protestant forces to a narrow victory over the imperial advance of Tily and Wallenstein near the city of Gotha. Seen as the southern end of protestant Germany the dukes successfully argued that the protestant forces had to seize oppertunity and dictate the place of battle to ensure victory. Because of that the protestant forces were enabled to fight first Tily and later Wallenstein divided as their forces could not meet in time to form an overwhelming force. Breaking the imperial power on the battlefield, all of protestant Germany celebrated. After all the fight against the tyrant in Vienna was a fight for the liberty of the princes and the estates in general. It was not a fight to break the empire apart but to save it and to rescue German freedoms from the "autocratic Spanish".

That victory even though it could not be used by the exhausted victors turned the tide. Furthermore it enabled the Lüneburgian princes and their allies in the United Provinces to muster enough force to prevent Spanish troops in the southern Netherlands gaining enough strength to put them down. While the war was brought to a standstill initiative was lost by the catholics altogether. The Brabantian general Tilly was routed in Franconia while Wallenstein's mercenaries plundered the land disgruntled by the loss and their denied spoils. The situation grew so bad that the emperor was forced to relieve Wallenstein altogether to at least salvage the situation. With that imperial forces were helpless bystanders as Hesse-Kassel and the Palatinate dissolved the Electorates of Cologne, Trier and Mainz by force.

The war in Germany would have been all but decided when the Elector of Saxony made the choice of joining the emperor's side in exchange for territories in the Lausitz and the rest of the Wettin lands. The retribution of the Ernestinian Wettins coupled with Brandenburgian troops and backed by the protestant nobility and peasents of Saxony was swift though the Albertinians managed to kill the waring dukes of Saxe-Weimar leaving the territory to be reinherited by Saxe-Eisenach and the Ernestian territories reunited. Not stopping with Saxony the protestant forces moved on to Silesia and "liberated" it from catholic yoke.

As Spain tried to take both situations in the empire and in France as oppertunities its forces were spread thin and thus it was no help anymore to stop the protestant tide. Württemberg, devasted twice due to catholic conquest and marauding mercenaries was left in smoldering ruins by the protestant liberation. Finally the emperor had to sue for peace but proved unable to part with his ambitions in the empire. His stubborness led to the division of the empire with Protestant Germany largely leaving the empire together with the taken spoils. While bereft of imperial defense and integrity the Protestant estates agreed to meet this year in Weimar to discuss their common future. Since alone they might prove victims of the surrounding powers a strong but federalized protestant German realm might be a good solution.

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Besides the majority of protestant german entities the stronger entities of Brandenburg-Prussia, Saxony, the United Provinces, Lüneburg, Hesse, the Palatinate, Switzerland and Württemberg might look intimidating but their respective territories are also divided and a place of other strong and weak German entities they fought for.
Finally the German territories of Denmark and those perceived part of german lands outside of protestant reach are a concern of the princes.​

Most of the German princes now set their faith in the Duke of Saxony whose lenient policy won him admirers and friends. While they wish to be protected by a moderately strong entity they do not wish to have to defend their liberties yet again. Aside from that the spoils will have to be divided soonish as many church territories have still not be distributed by consent. The smaller German estates are frightened by potential Spanish and Danish ambitions and they are suspicious of Austria and the Commonwealth as well.

Saxony, reunited not by choice but the fate of war, is the leading protestant realm in Germany. Great swathes of its territory are though not directly ruled by the House Wettin but by minor princes whose rights the new Duke Johann Philipp guarantees alongside those of supposedly free cities like Erfurt and Halle. Even the territories of Wettin are scattered among the members of the house with primogeniture only installed in Johann Philipp's own fiefs. As head of the house of Wettin Johann Philipp rules as primus inter pares and guarantees the rights of his subjects. This lenient lookout make Saxony extraordinary stable and much respected. Their close allies in Brandenburg though may turn into rivals soon and while Saxony wishes to add Silesia it is no secret that Brandenburg wants both it and Pommerania for their own designs.

Brandenburg-Prussia is much more centralized, with all its home territories ruled by the Hohenzollern. Raised to Duke by protestant consent the young prince seeks to make his realm a united power. While the alliance with Saxony is needed Brandenburg has certain interests and the rich Silesia might actually be the key to deal with Danish and Polish threats. A future consolidation is preferred by the duke as even with the addition of Magdeburg his ambition only grew.

Like Saxony the Duchy of Lüneburg is divided but the dukes aim for a consolidation like in Brandenburg. Danish encroachment is though a serious threat and the House of Welf perhaps rightfully suspect Danish designs on their territories. Pushing Denmark back out of Germany has become a new goal for Lüneburg and it finds increasingly common ground in this with Brandenburg.

Hesse-Kassel, now commonly known as Hesse has rather grand designs on the rhine, with the ecclestial territories dissolves. That brings them into direct competition to the Palatinate as the former allies prepare for a conflict. It is the United Provinces' goal to bring the conflicting parties to a negotiation table because that conflict could turn in favor of the Spanish giant. As a matter of fact the United Provinces have thrown in their lot with this new German project whereever it may lead. Not finished having developed an independent identity the calvinist Netherlands see themselves cultural still as part of the German lands. Furthermore their defense and prosperity lies on their German neighbors. Beside that they have the means to pursue a colonial ambition which may well add more prosperity to all of protestant and calvinist Germany.

Out of necessity both Württemberg and Switzerland see themselves part of the protestant project as they have borders east and west with the still reeling Holy Roman Empire which certainly has designs on them. Both will make sure that the northern states do not forget that soon.

Aside from that many burghers and nobles are not content with supposedly German cultured realms outside of their reach. Also the imperial connotation as a German destiny lies heavily on the protestants. Only the future may tell what that impressions may bring.
 
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1. Kingdom of Denmark
2. Principality of Luneburg
3. Kingdom of Leinster

Bold is prefered... If I don't get to be King of Denmark, I will at the very least be the enemy of Denmark :happy:
 
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Eastern Europe
Requiem for a dream​

The dream of Russian unity has ended. The new century began with so much promise. The Siberian Khanate crushed, a Polish invasion repelled - at the cost of a burning Moscow. But suddenly the tide turned as the Khazakhi regathered their strength and mounted an attack which reminded on the Mongol invasions and incursions in Russia. Exhausted by the previous wars the young Russian state nevertheless gathered the armies to utterly destroy the new menace. In the long run it would have certainly succeeded becoming undisputed master of central Asia from them on. The sudden Swedish attack, ruthless in its nature and horrible effective toppled the northern border and the garrisions. Unable to take on two energize enemies at once Russia was left crippled with huge areas pinned away by the agressors.

In that moment the Commonwealth still reeling from the latest defeats regathered its forces for an attack, occupied Moscow and took captives without number. Unable to further sustain against the pressure the Russian realm collapsed, splintering into the principalities from which it was formed. While Sweden walked away from this quite easily, the Commonwealth moved in to stay, half paranoid of another rise of Muscowian power and half ambitious to integrate the Russian states into its huge experiment. Some visionaries - or radically demented - even predicted a huge federal European realm from the borders of the Holy Roman Empire and the Black Sea to the Ural, maybe even beyond.

That engagement came though forth with big costs. As the new centre of Russian resentment and hatred the Commonwealth was forced to keep the Russians down and they proceeded to do so with absorbing the western border regions and establishing small buffer states directed against the Tatarian Hordes, Swedish expansion and finally against those Russians not that easily bogged down: The Grand Principalities of Nizhny Novgorod and Solikamsk. Especially the former managed to gather quite a lot of Russian rump territory together but found itself quickly encircled by the Commonwealth and her vassals on the one side and the Siberian Horde on the other.

The sudden collapse of the Holy Roman Empire in the west did nothing to calm down Commonwealth troubles. Now bordered by fragmented and possible fast drifting areas east and west and agressive conquerors north and south the Commonwealth needed time to adress their inner needs. Thus the client state of the Baltic Germans in Courland was much expanded to make them a useful and cheap buffer against Swedish agression with the hope to draw protestant German zeal against the Swedes. On the other hand East Prussia still was only a nominal vassal and actually just a guarantee that Brandenburg and most likely other Germans would come knocking sooner or later. Nevertheless though maybe reform should come first to stand firm against the outsiders.

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The Commonwealth, the Duchy of Courland, Russian buffer states, the Grand Principality of Nizhny Novgorod, the Principality of Solikamsk, the Khanates of Siberia and Kzachstan in 1640​

The Commonwealth is split deeply. While actually quite modern in its religious thinking and liberties the ruling elite is deeply conservative and the magnates do not understand the centralization efforts as anything but a threat. Actually if they had their way the Sejm would be unable to work and every part of the Commonwealth had their own way. On the other hand all parts turn to the centrum for defense but they are actually unwilling to work for it or contribute anything of value. While other realms are easily intimated by the huge Commonwealth it becomes more hollow and unmoveable with every decade.

Courland's options have expanded though not improved. It stands now in the way of Sweden more than ever with no guarantee that their proclaimed protector in the Commonwealth will be able to defend them or even try to. More than any other eastern state Courland is fixed on the events in protestant Germany as her German elites might very well decide to pull their cultural brothers into the Baltic mess to guard their endangered privilegdes.

The Grand Principality of Nizhny Novgorod is paralyzed by fear. They just experienced the destruction of their cultural union, the total unravelling of Russian power. While a potential spark of hope for rebirth the leadership is extremely pessimistic about the options and becomes increasingly ignorant of the fact that their enemies actually grow weaker constantly while their own weight increases as Russians amass under the banner of the biggest free Russian realm. While some reforms might be deemed necessary Nizhny Novgorod might prove quite able to make the Russian rebirth happen.

Solikamsk and the Russian vassals, while quite bowing down to Foreign power actually just wait for their supposed leader's comming to terms to lead them in the reclaimation of their birthright. Actually they prove the other extreme position being too reckless and ignorant of actual power contrary to Nizhny Novgorod being to cautious. For the Khanates the revival proves short for they can't control the land with their backwards methods anymore and Russian colonization while stopped fully can't be shoved back effectively. The Russian settlements prove largely unruly and while Khazak might have a chance to transform itself that is not given in Siberia's case with the Tatar overlords being hugely outnumbered by Russian settlers.
 
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Sorted in order of preference.

Tier 3. Nizhny Novgorod
Tier 2. Duchy of Saxony
Tier 1. Spain
 
The Holy Roman "Empire" and adjactent states
Nothing is more dangerous than a German with a plan​

The Holy Roman Empire, now more holy or roman than ever before because of the reduction to Italy and some southern German states, is in serious doubt on the in- and outside if the term "empire" actually does fit anymore. Actually it is foremost a catholic empire led by Austria due to its shear weight. Actually not even Austria itself is secure anymore with Hungary and Croatia, though rumps of their respective kingdoms, think on secession and only the fear of Turkish conquest holds them in line. The German states just move along though they have lost their drive. The italian minors squeezed between Austria, Savoy and Spain more or less wait for their oppertunity.

After Ferdinand III. died embittered in 1638 just after peace accords his son Ferdinand IV. proves to be much more programmatic than he is megalomaniac father. Nevertheless he, even though only elected by a provisional electoral round consisting of Bohemia as the only original elector and Lorraine, Bavaria, Savoy and Tuscany as new electors, might have similar imperial ambitions and views the northern germans as his rightful subjects. Nevertheless he has to admit that his power is much reduced and other threats are at hand. With a crumbling France and elsewhere occupied Poland Austria only has one major opponent to face but that is actually the most intimidating of all: The Grand Turk bend on destroying the western empire to make sure of his succession to the imperial roman title taken from the Byzantines.

Aside from that Ferdinand has a deep grasp of the diplomatic and military dimensions and even while no genius he is a very capable ruler and leader in his own right. Through force and leniency both he put the Bohemians, Croats and Hungarians into line and sorted out a number of Italian conflicts. With papal blessings directly crowned in Rome he is at least in catholic eyes the truly commanding figure the emperor in theory is supposed to be.

In Italy the minor and medium states look to adress the new situation and actually lean to Austria to avert Spanish advances. Only Savoy coordinates freely with the Spanish king who see the Savoyans as their cornerstone in the French affairs and a viable addition in the Mediterrean. Tuscany is obsessed with banking and art and for the time feels safe with the emperor's focus confined to Italy. It is in Germany that the catholic minors really feel the pressure. Baden, Bavaria and Lorraine were actually invited to Weimar to participate as German realms as an indirect challenge to Austria and also to safeguard encircled Württemberg and Switzerland. Salzburg and Liége know they would be dissolved if the protestants get their wish and lobby against any interference from the north.

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Imperial states, Papal holdings, Venice and Ragusa in 1640 along with the area of special interest to Austrian strategy under Spanish control​

Ferdinand IV. could easily become the greatest emperor in a hundred years if his gamble succeeds. To restore imperial authority and the empire altogether he brokered an ambitious transition with the Spanish line. According to him Spanish possessions of the Burgundian heritage are largely undefensible as proven time and time again. Shifting the focus to the Mediterranean Sea and the colonial empire allows for a better distribution of Spanish ressources and clearer strategies. Bowing to that logic and initially agreeing the Spanish king is prepared to pass the entire Burgundian heritage along with the conflict with the United Provinces on to the emperor. Ferdinand is though not sure of the best moment as he fears the move might negatively reflect upon the protestant meeting in Weimar. If conflict erupts in northern Germany or outside power invade he wishes to come to the rescue as a true emperor should and hopes to bring the protestants home again. With the Burgundian heritage regained completely from France he can even announce himself as the shield from Frankish agression. The matter of religion though is a heavy block to overcome.

Venezia, trading pearl in decline, has a Greek revolt at her hands in Crete and the ionian isles. Actually the revolt seems to be stired from outside but the Venetians can't identify the source as of yet. For them the Ottoman Empire would just attack while others do not have anything to gain from it. That would mean that the Ottoman Empire is responsible but Venezia is unable to exactly act upon this as it lacks allies to do so. Asking the Spanish might bring an alliance but they would most likely as territories as compensation and giving them away is certainly not in focus.

Tuscany and the Papal State are content with each other but neither is really happy about the Spanish presence in the south. Yes, they arranged themselves with it and it is good to call upon them against the Satanish Turk but further Spanish ambitions are not to be ruled out. Savoy actually sees that as golden oppertunity to weaken France and dominate the northwest of Italy for her own designs with Genoa and Milan painfully aware of it. Actually one can only assume that Italy is a powder keg and if the emperor looks away for his grand imperial restoration it might very well explode and wreack the region.

Lorraine, Liége, Salzburg, Bavaria, Baden and Ulm are still in the rebuilding and actually have to ask themselves where their future is to be found. They are not yet aware of the emperor's bold plans and they might not really like them either.