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unmerged(13601)

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I've been checking on oil production during the HOI period. On fact is that the oil production in HOI is very inaccurate.

1) Kuwait never produced oil during or before the end of WWII. Oil was discovered in '38 and several wells were drilled but due to the war there was no material available to commence production (steel for pipelines, harbor facilities, etc.). In '45 commercial production started.

2) Iraqi oil production is way too high compared to others and the only oil produced in Iraq was in Kirkuk. Commercial oil production started in '38. Iranian oil production is too low in comparison. See info below.

MIDDLE EAST CRUDE PETROLEUM - 1943 PRODUCTION AND OWNERSHIP
[Barrels]

Ownership
Country and company Production American British Other
Iraq: Iraq Petroleum 25,270,000 6, 002, 000 13, 267, 000 6, 001, 000
Bahrein: Bahrein Petroleum 6, 561, 000 6, 561, 000 - - - - - -
Arabia: Cal. Arabian Standard 4, 866, 000 4, 866, 000 - - - - - -
Egypt: Anglo-Egyptian 8, 953, 000 - - - 8, 953, 000 - - -
Iran: Anglo-Iranian 75,323,000 - - - 75,323,000 - - -
Total (barrels) 120,973,000 17, 429, 000 97,543,000 6, 001, 000
Percent 100 14. 41 80.63 4.96

3) Commercial oil production in Saudi didn't start untill '39. However according to table above there was oil produced in Egypt.

4) Before the British takeover of the Iranian oil fields in '41 production in Iran was approx. 50 million barrels/year. Total Iraqi production was about 1/2 the total Iranian production in the early war years. As can be seen from the table, fro '41 oil prod. in Iran increased by 50% (due to American Lend-Lease support: piping, drilling rigs etc.), Iraqi production stayed relatively the same.

5) There is no oil in the Kuban province (SU). Before German capture of this province, the oilfields there (Krasnodar, Maikop) produced approx. 2.2 million tons (approx. 17 million barrels) of oil per year (1/10 of oil production in Baku, which was approx. 22.2 million tons/year in 1940 (dropped to 11 million tons/year in '45 due to labor shortage and lack of well drilling). Oil production in Grozny area (Kirovsbad + Grozny province in HOI) was approx. 50 million barrels/year in 1940 (7 million tons/year). Was there actually oil produced in Tashkent? Oil from Kazachstan was produced in Emba region and oil from Turkmenistan from western trukmenistan (Caspian sea province). in 41 approx. 70% of SU oil was produced in Baku (23.5 million tons/year)

6) Texan oil production in '35 (was lower in '36 to approx '41 due to recession and oil blockades) was approx. 160 million barrels/year (approx. 21-22 million tons/year)

7) Mexico didn't produce oil from mid '36 to 'march '38 due to a national oil worker strike. After nationalisation oil production in Mexico was lower than before the strike (I haven't found sources)

8) Trinidad oil refining capacity was 10 million barrels/year in pre-war years. Refined oil included Venezuelan oil, however not all trinidad oil may have been refined in Trinidad (would be logical though).

I haven't been able to ffind production figures for Indonesian, Venezuelan and Argentinian oil. Nor figures for oil production in romania, germany, Austria, Poland
 
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Some of the oil resources in the game are probably placed for game balance (to prevent minors with non-operational economy).

What's your sources for this info? I found Sturmvogel has a good overview but I'm interested in more sources.

Is this an accurate rendition of your table? The one you posted is a bit hard to read.
Code:
Country and company        Production    American    British      Other
Iraq: Iraq Petroleum       25,270,000    6,002,000   13,267,000   6,001,000
Bahrein: Bahrein Petroleum 6, 561,000    6,561,000   - - -        - - -
Arabia: Cal. Arab. Std.    4, 866,000    4,866,000   - - -        - - -
Egypt: Anglo-Egyptian      8, 953,000    - - -       8,953,000    - - -
Iran: Anglo-Iranian        75,323,000    - - -       75,323,000   - - -
Total (barrels)            120,973,000   17,429,000  97,543,000   6,001,000
Percent                    100           14.41       80.63        4.96
 
The table you posted is accurate. Edit: numbers in table are in US barrels.
Sources:

Multinational Oil Corporations and U.S. Foreign Policy - REPORT (source of the table)
Kazach crude oil & gas
Kuwait oil & industry
Oil Companies Hold Down Production in Iraq (source of Iraqi production limited to Kirkuk)
The Development of the Oil and Gas Industry in Azerbaijan (Baku oil figures + some other SU figures + references)
World War II and Azerbaijan (Baku oi figures again + development of Russian oil industry during WWII + references)
The Development of the Oil and Gas Industry in Azerbaijan
Oil in Iran between the 2 world wars (some oil figures of pre-war production in Iran)
Production and consumption of oil (figures on venezuelan oil production)
historic tables - Iran (Tables 25 and 27 on african/asian oil production 1912-1960 and iranian oil production; table 25 includes japanese, egyptian, indonesian, algerian, burmese, indian and chinese oil production during those years [all produced oil in the HOI timeframe] )

p.s. There is no oil production in Syria in the HOI years, however France has 25% share in Iraqi oil and part of the Iraqi oil was transported through Syria to Beirut and Haifa. Oil transport was terminated while Syria was controlled by Vichy forces.
 
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You must have a whole lot of free time to look all that stuff up! :)
 
This topic has been discussed in previous threads, and it got a little hot.

My background: I've been working in the oil industry since the 70's and have worked in most of these oil regions in particular Yugoslavia [Sisak], Russia[Baku, Omsk, UFA], Syria, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Texas, Oklahoma etc ...

I would caution use of 'public' figures. There are more discrepancies than there are consistencies. Why? During this time [and still today by the way], most oil production was done via national companies. At this particular point in time, Oil was very strategic and production figures were held to be national security issues.

I would beleive most of the production start dates that Wineman turned up to be accurate. The Mexico and Texas production issues are well documented and the reasons as accurate as any. Critical point: they were political, not technical. In HOI this means they are Events and given a 1936 start date in HOI, may or may not occur.

However, any production data [outside of the US, Europe, and maybe a couple of other areas] during this period up into the 60's, i would treat very gingerly. I do not know the sources of hte "Swedish" professor team that initially assigned the values for HOI. And as Steel pointed out, no doubt some abstraction for hte game and game balance were introduced.

Most everyone was hiding and mis-representing production data for all kinds of reasons: graft, theft, kickbacks, development loans, tax evasion, royalty evasion etc. During the war years, it got even worse. SIS loved disinformation schemes. Peoples lives depended upon certain production figures in many places. Trust me, the figures always agreed with requirements until there was a 'replacement'. The new "replacement" never went had rime to go back and restate the previous figures.

I don't want to stir up a tempest [again]. I think anyone familiar with this industry would agree to most of my points. Oil is like diamonds: a hot, very liquid, commodity. The extent of the discrepancies is where the issue and heat arrive. Do these issues represent 5% discrepancy or 50%? Up or down?

I think that's all i'll say for now ... thanks. [steps off the soap box]
 
I do not intend to close it... Making some province.csv changes won't upset the game too much. I'm a little reluctant on adding too much resources, but give ma a nice list and I'll consider it.

I want the list like this

PROVINCE ID - PROVINCE NAME - PROPOSED RESOURCES

Thank you :D
 
I realize figures aren't that accurate, which is why I try to find at least two references for figures and when using internet data to use data with references. Of course that information doesn't have to be too accurate either, however its the best I can do.

PaxMondo, could you give me references or numbers of US, Venezuelan, Colombian and Mexican oil production during the period 36 - 47? Then I'll try to make a list of the production figures in the countries and the provinces and then we can discuss if there need to be changes for game balance purposes.
 
I would try to use established, independent, 3rd party sources like Gas Producer Society of America, American Petroleum Institute, etc. Here is a fairly good starting list of these societies.

http://www.pgcgas.com/industryassoc.htm

You are not going to find all the data in one place [i don't think, but API and GPSA are good starting points], but by going to a countries participating society, you should find what is needed.

From Vulture you need to find out several things:
1. how Natural Gas and LPG was treated vis-a-vis oil in HOI. In other words was how many SCF [Standard Cubic Feet]=1 barrel oil. Did they use the thermal equivalent? or how did they establish it?

2. Did they atempt to normalize the crudes? For instance Texas light was equal [in a refinery] to about 1.5 barrels of Mayan from Venezuela, or maybe even 2 barrels. API has benchmarks estabished for grading all crudes. You would need to relate these benchmarks to refining capability then. They might have historic data on these benchmarks to help here.

3. how did they handle losses post wellhead. Pipeline leakage and theft are 2 very large sources even today of loss. Then, they were huge, upwards of 10% in many areas and 25% in a few. Variables on pipeline loss are distance and country [some are not very persistent in fixing leaks]. Pipeline losses can be obtained from the pipeline associations. Lloyd's of London wil have actuarial data on theft both now and historically. Not sure if they will part with it though. The seas around Thailand are still full of oil pirates even today. If they won't, they should be able to provide previous insurance fees [very expensive] and with some work and standard actuarial tables you can back out what the losses were.

To me this is a huge project. You need to establish effective worldwide production, then normalize, then identify serious historic discrepancies in the game. I don't have enough time to help here too much.

My last piece of advice is to use 34 - 37 data, maybe avg'd? By '38 there was getting to be too much turmoil in Asia for the figures to be too accurate. By avg'ing the data over a few years, you should be able to eliminate some of the bookkeeping fudging.

Good Luck!!!
 
I'll keep watching this thread, it could be interesting to see your findings... By all means go ahead if you want. Make sure not to unbalance the game too much
 
I thought of one more important item, and Wineman you touched upon it obliquely.

How did HOI team handle the new oil and gas discoveries during the game time period? There were several, and at the present the game does not modify resources to provinces based upon time. So did they do some average or some cut-off date to be included in the game?

this gets deeper every time i think about it ...
 
I believe world production was taken, then the country's percentage in that total production. Then the country's percentage was distributed over their provinces that produced. I believe world production was set at a few thousands... Just count up all the oil in the game and you'll have the number :)
 
FWIW Sturmvogel's site indicates total world production in 1937 was 272 million tons of oil, his source is Ellis, John. World War II: A Statistical Survey

It would be amazingly helpful for the modder community to have a definition list (ie 1 oil is X tons, 1 manpower is X men etc). Maybe there is one and I've missed it... Having those definitions with a few brief explanations of any fudge factors etc posted in the FAQ forum would save a lot of debating and double-guessing!
 
As I said, 1 unit of oil does not represent a fixed number of oil. Count all the oil in the province.csv. You'll arrive at some 5000 units. Those 5000 units were distributed among the different countries following their relative share (in%) of the total world production. Then their share of that 5000 was distributed over their provinces that produced oil historically.
 
As I have discovered, it is indeed a huge task. It'll take some time.
Vulture, what year did HOI take the production figures from? And thanks for the info. I'll do the same, keep the 5000 oil as a world standard.

PaxMondo, was LPG and natural gas as important then as it is now? Right now I just have crude oil production figures, no gas or LPG included. And as to the different crude sources being better/easier to refine etc. (sweet light vs. heavy sour etc.) I have considered that, but I believe it's better to just look at produced volumes first. I already have some assumptions in my list as some sources give production figures in metric tonnes and some in barrels (U.S. or UK?) and I need a density to convert from weight to volume (density is not equal for every crude).
 
In Europe, natural gas was being used, but only near the sources. pipelines for transportation were not really fully developed. GPSA would have data and links on pipeline construction and flows. Some areas, and in particular electric generators would have been gas. So, important to count.

LPG though, has always been important because it is easy to transport. Widespread use and production. Much early crude production, shallow as it was, had a high content of LPG. SW Oklahome crude is so light iy is pea green and frothy coming out. You could run an old Ford Modek T on it straight from the well.

Remember that gas, natural or LPG, was in homes B4 electricity. Many turn of the century homes were piped for gas lights, and these were still in use in the 30's and 40's. My grandparents home in Michigan UP had the fixtures yet. And the original family home in the Dolomiti [up the cliff face from Bolzano] also had gas lights.

A 3rd gas source was coal gas, particularly in Germany, Netherlands, Poland, and NE Belgium.

My thoughts for the day ...
 
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Vulture, what year did HOI take the production figures from? And thanks for the info. I'll do the same, keep the 5000 oil as a world standard.

Don't get fixated on the 5000 number. Just total it all up and normalize it.

[
PaxMondo, was LPG and natural gas as important then as it is now? Right now I just have crude oil production figures, no gas or LPG included.

So previous mote for answer.

[
And as to the different crude sources being better/easier to refine etc. (sweet light vs. heavy sour etc.) I have considered that, but I believe it's better to just look at produced volumes first.

Don't disagree with your approach. Just remember that crude qualities can and will be +/- 25% impact upon effective usage.

[
I already have some assumptions in my list as some sources give production figures in metric tonnes and some in barrels (U.S. or UK?) and I need a density to convert from weight to volume (density is not equal for every crude).

Barrels are the volume standard, metric tonnes the mass standard. There isn't any US or British version. Density relates directly to the quality of the crude. lighter is much better. And densities will vary from 0.6 -> about 0.9. Pretty big range.

Suggestion: if you use barrels, this will tend to inflate the light crudes and suppress the heavy crudes. Ergo, as a first order approximater, it will account for crude quality. Very roughly of course, but a step in the right direction.

Another key component of crude quality is 'sweetness'. Mostly related to how much sulphur [but other contaminants are important in heavy crudes like V etc.]. less is better.
 
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