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himbim

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May 18, 2008
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1) Here's the real situation:

I think the most probable cause for another world war or a war in general is that we're running short (not running out) on oil. The war in Iraq was only the beginning of that. The US would have also taken Iran's natural gas reserves (second largest in the world) if they hadn't had so much trouble in Iraq.

With Nato and Shanghai Organisation for Cooperation there are two big blocks that need the middle eastern and central asian oil/gas to fuel their economies. The time when it was enough for all of us are ending now, thats why the price of oil is rising fast. We want more oil, while there will be even LESS in the future, according to a geological theory, which is more and more accepted:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil


2) Here's what I propose for HoI3 to rebuild that situation in the game:

Oil & Economy:
A modern Day Scenario, which starts with the invasion of Iraq, just like the already existing MDS. But the role of Oil should be more realistic, not only to fuel the war machinery itself. You should have a slider setting how much of your oil you'll give your people (the rest will be reserved for the military, like it is in the game already). If you don't give them enough oil, your IC will be decreased, and you'll also get an increasing dissent.
There should be research projects which reduce the needed amount of oil.
Infrastructure would be best divided into two numbers: First that runs on oil, like roads, and secondly that which uses electricity like electric trains. The combination of those should also determine how much oil the country needs, so for example the US will obviously need a lot.

Oil Production:
Oil production shouldn't be constant, but it should change, like it will change in reality to. For the US, and the North sea that will mean a soon decline, later for Russia and the middle east. In some regions the Oil production would increase a bit, like Alberta in Canada or Angola. Since natural Gas Reserves can be liquified and used like oil, the can practically treated like oil in a modern day scenario. For the game that would mean an increase in oil production in Iran and Central Asia (Yeah, that's why this region is so important in policy).

Another thing is coal liquification to replace a bit oil. This was used by the Nazis in WW2. The game could offer to bild these plants as province inprovements. But the can't fully solve the problem, since coal is limited as well (but nut as scare as oil).


3) Why I think that would be fun to play:

-It's the real game, that the bad guys like Dick Cheney are playing.

-In the game it would be essential to control enough oil, to maintain the full IC and polical stability. But as the sum of the oil supplies slowly starts to decline slowly from ~2012 on, most planes and tanks would only be useful if you control more of the oil, than "your share". So if you can disconnect the enemy from it's oil, it basically kicks him back to the stoneage slowly: His IC declines, his IC needs to be used more for the consumer because they get angry about having no gas, and if you hold him long enough from his oil, even his military gets paralysed.
 
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Snugglie said:
Oil is a limited resource. Limited resources have an end. Thus, sooner or later, it will have to peak. After that, production will go down, and eventually we will run out of it. That can hardly be debatable. And even if it is something that I, as a euroweenie, would love to think, the idea that USA only invaded Iraq because of oil is rather ludicrous.
All resources are limited, we know this from the law of conservation of matter. The question is how much we have.

The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.
The iron age didn't end because we ran out of iron.
The petroleum age won't end because we will run out of petroleum.

Everybody theorizing we have 10 yrs left is full of shit. We likely have enough for the next hundred years of projected use, but we won't have to use most of it anyways - technology will eventually make it economically viable to switch to electricity.

Using regulations to outlaw consumption is to make it artificially viable, and it hurts us all.
 
dermeister said:
The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.
The iron age didn't end because we ran out of iron.
The petroleum age won't end because we will run out of petroleum.
Sorry, but that is a rather lame analogy. :p And as stated, the only point I have to make is that we will run out of oil sooner or later, and thus we should simply try to switch to more viable resources as soon as possible.
 
Wow, is this thread still going? :eek:

Why does Iraq keep getting dragged in?

Even the 'US-is-bad-OMG-death-neocon'-crowd admits they don't even think the Americans are in Iraq for oil.
IIRC this was about scarce resources, right?

Or is this threat about countries getting invaded?
In that case why don't we talk about Chechnya?



Mind you, now iraquian refugees are at the top of any people asking for asylum in the EU. More than from any other country, even from those african countries you can read in the newspaper ever other day that another boat was found...
Are you sure about that?
It wouldn't after all be Switzerland where those refugees would be going to, would it? Aren't the Swiss migrationlaws extremely tight, even more so than the American ones?

I wish you personale all the best to help them developing to become a better country, but so far the invasion hasn't really helped the population to prosper.
No, it would be much better to leave them under the command of a dictator for all of eternity. Maybe you should try to get some more information about the state Iraq is in today. It's not as grim as you think it to be. AFAIK it's economy has tripled since 2008 and the first oilrevenues are coming in.

Oil-revenues which btw were sold by Iraqi civil servants to the world market, not Americans. I doubt much of it went to the USA, as Iraq is only the 7th exporter of oil to the USA.

Iraq is still a long, long way away from anything but a peaceful country.
It's no picnic. But Iraq has had honest elections and now has a democratically elected government. Quite an accomplishment in 5 years, if you compare that the rest of the Middle-East bar Israel still hasn't reached that point yet...

Regarding oil;
If oil becomes more scarce and thus more expensive, there are suddenly much more oilreserves (like tarsand for example) to be used which weren't economically viable before.
 
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