I stand in position that rock-paper-scissor at equipment level is absolutely the worst mechanics one could build grand strategy around.
I'm not sure if you're rebutting my post specifically or just taking it as a starting point to counter RPS mechanics writ-large. How I think of RPS dynamics is simply that certain units, equipment, tactics, strategies, whatever (it doesn't matter specifically what) are more effective at countering other units, equipment, tactics, strategies, whatever, and they are themselves vulnerable to being countered by other units, equipment, tactics, strategies, whatever. Counters needn't take place only on the same level. It's not that one unit type can only counter another, different unit type. Rather than certain units may counter other units, but that unit itself can be countered by certain
tactics, and those tactics are countered by strategies, and so on.
I may be conceiving of RPS incorrectly, but for me the alternative to RPS dynamics is that the outcome of a battle is instead decided simply by "bigger number wins". The problem with HoI4's meta right now is that it's just bigger number wins. As the OP points out:
... systems boil down to one optimal design—medium tanks and small airframes—because battles prioritize raw stats over specialized roles. Light and heavy tanks, like medium and large airframes, are redundant, wasting resources and XP on designs that barely add value. The meta is so one-sided that historical roles are unrepresentable, and recent changes making combined arms prohibitively expensive only double down on this mess...
You make an interesting point about combined arms being the opposite of RPS. But to my mind, combined arms has an element of the RPS dynamic, albeit at a tactical level that HOI4 abstracts away. Tanks beat infantry, but AT beats tanks, and AT is weak against infantry, which closes the loop of rock paper scissors. What this means on the battlefield is that commanders want to have all three elements operating in combined arms so their strengths can be deployed while other tactical units compensate for their weakness. HOI4 doesn't get down to this level of granularity and it really shouldn't as it's a grand strategy game. However, it's still the case that combined arms are effective, in part, because they give commanders flexibility in responding to the rock paper scissors of tactical situations.
To your second point that grand strategy has decisional inertia. I agree - it's often said that naval strategy is built strategy for exactly this reason. And you add, if the RPS effect is too strong it makes certain mistakes irrecoverable. I agree again, I too think that RPS effects should not be
too strong. I think that RPS should not be
too weak either, which they are in the current state of HoI4. What I argue is that HoI4's RPS dynamic should be
just right.
For example, Soviet players who face Barbarossa with historically-accurate unpreparedness should be capable of recovering and achieving Bagration-style counter attacks. The dynamic should not solely be the Soviet player realizing - my number was too small, I must more faithfully execute the One True Meta so my number grows larger. The Soviets must understand what specific equipment, units, tactics and strategies are causing them to fail and develop a specific counter. There will be common elements to all counters - ensure your lines are filled, employ combined arms, fight in good supply, etc. However, others elements are contingent on the enemy forces - building more AT will be essential in some scenarios and superfluous in others, paratroopers might give you an edge in some settings but be a costly diversion in others. Implementing that counter will take weeks if not months, as this is a
grand strategy game after all, and the Soviet player will need to display great skill in buying themself that time. However, the pivot is achievable. Meanwhile, if the German player is especially skilled, they will anticipate the Soviet's pivot and already have their own counter to the Soviet counter in the pipeline.
That is the nature of the RPS dynamic. Your strategy as a player cannot succeed without grappling with the nature of the forces aligned against you and exploitation of their specific weaknesses. There is no one strategy for all seasons. That's what it means to show mastery of the game's mechanics, much more so than the current meta of bigger number wins.