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I am actually having the same issue at the moment, I am using Avast and on Windows 11. I just added the file path as an exception, but I would like a clarification on: " then deleting that sqlite folder one more time, seems to be fixing it reliably." I know that the launcher previously told me to delete the sqlite launcher file which it provided a direct path to and I did after which obviously it prompted me with the same error as in the picture in the first post on this forum thread. But now I cannot remember where this sqlite folder/file that I am supposed to delete one more time, is.We now have reports of this with Avast antivirus only, except just 1 report on AVG. Putting C:/users/<UserName>/AppData/Local/Programs/Paradox Interactive/launcher-v2.2021.10.1/paradox launcher.exe in all its exceptions lists, then deleting that sqlite folder one more time, seems to be fixing it reliably.
I also have one report that opting into the beta of the next launcher version 2022.1 helped.
All the best!
In AVG there is a system where you can see all currently running programs so i kept that open and ran the launcher and was able to identify specific file/program that AVG was blocking and then unblock it
the section of the AVG where it is blocking it is found in the "settings>general>blocked & allowed apps" then remove the "paradox launcher.exe".