December 1759 to Late February 1760 – A long winter
The 1759 / 1760 winter is a specially harsh one, and there is almost no move overall.
There are some riots in Ireland, which are, after potatoes, the second most important production of that island :
I decide to fortify Berlin by December :
And new English troops are available from January onward… but cannot arrive due to Bremen not being mine.
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The winter recedes in late February, so it is time to make a point on the situation.
Overall, while 1758 was a poor year, and while I was convinced in winter 1758 / 1759 that I would lose, I recovered quite spectacularly after the destruction of the Austrian army in Saxony, which gave me enough NM and enough time to challenge the French.
If you recover the objective I set on 1758, here is what I achieved, or failed to achieved :
Quite good, eh ? The only main objective I failed at was keeping the Swedes at bay, and even then it was of no great consequences. I more or less have the territory I had at the beginning of the game, with the exception of the Rhineland.
In 1760, though, Baris now has a decent NM again (83 vs my 120 – a significant gap, but not crushing), and while his army a suffered several serious beat-down, I believe he still has more or less parity, and maybe more, than me. I estimate his force to be 20K in Sweden, 60K in France where he regrouped during Winter, and 50K in Austria, for 130 K total soldiers (not including Russians). Here is a pic of the forces I can see in Minden. That’s 5 columns.
To those 130K soldiers, I can oppose these forces :
If you don’t count the forces in Königsberg, that’s 140 K soldiers for me. Better led, and better trained, the odds favor me.
As you can see, there is no one to be committed against Austria. My plan actually sacrifices Saxony in order to be 140K vs 80K and so destroy both the Swedish and the French army. I will march on Wien in 1761, if the plans works as it should.
My scouts have seen that Baris has been accumulating his forces in Minden during all the winter, actually moving troops between the Frankfurt front and the French front. I don’t want to attack this force of 60 K troops (provided I made no mistakes scouting them – he might have as much as 80 K) head-on with Keith’s army : Austria will be slightly more numerous (10 K more minimum), protected by the river and by his leaders defensive abilities.
Moreover, I cannot reinforce Keith with the troops in Berlin, lest the Swedes fall on my capital. That’s why I want to get rid of the Swedes. If possible in one or two decisive battles, for as long as I won’t bring the troops near Berlin to Keith I cannot attack, and cannot hope to recover Bremen.
That’s the first part of my plan :
I will leave only one column in Berlin, in order to entice Baris to attack me with a 2 : 1 ratio. Bevern will retreat at once. Once the Swedes are sieging Berlin (which I reinforced), I will close the trap behind them, with Brunk, Bevern, Ferdinand and if needed the whole army of Keith cutting both the supply route and the retreat. I will then just let the Swedes starve. If they take Berlin, I’ll siege it back with Keith column, even though it means sacrificing Hannover to Von Daun. Sorry Hannover, that’s the price to pay for being a junior partner in a war.
But that’s not all.
I don’t want to only destroy the Swedes. I also want to destroy the French until the end of the game, and even the army of Keith may not be enough. That’s where Frederick himself plays a role. The most dangerous role.
The following picture is from Early march as I retook it after a mistake with paint, but it is just as good :
I will attack the Rhineland cities with the columns of Frederick and Von Schwerin, after going through the forests of Hessen. Once I will have arrived, Baris will be faced with a dilemma :
- try to break Frederick sieges, but this means letting me cross and take Minden and then Bremen – and Frederick can easily go back to Hessen,
- Stay in Minden, and letting me cut all his supplies from France, so that if he ever lose Minden (to Keith), his French will have nowhere to go
- Split his forces, and let Keith’s army defeat and crush both his forces separately. That would be my favorite.
The nice part about this plan is that it works even if I fail to destroy the Swedish army. Both plans are very independent.
Now, there are 3 main issues with this plan :
- As you can see from the Excel, the forces are not yet in place, as you can see. Frederick is still in Saxony even though he should be in Kassel. More worryingly , Ferdinand is still in the small city of Bautzen, between Saxony and Silesia.
- If the Swedes are tougher than expected, I will have to make a choice between committing Keith to destroy the Swedes (that may be occupying Berlin !), or having Keith threaten / destroy the French
- Saxony is wide, wide open. Baris can do a lightning attack through it.
Oh, and finally, a picture of Königsberg. Same situation as ever.