May the Sun Never Set: A British AAR

[Cromwell]

I'm looking forwards to that. As long as the traditional hatred of the French is maintained of course!

"We always have been, we are, and I hope we always shall be, detested in France." Athur Wellesley The First Duke of Wellington

 

[El Pip]

I'm looking forwards to that. As long as the traditional hatred of the French is maintained of course!

"We always have been, we are, and I hope we always shall be, detested in France." Athur Wellesley The First Duke of Wellington

Entente Cordiale - The greatest foreign policy mistake in British history. And when one looks at the shear number of things the Foreign Office have cocked up it should be clear quite how serious a mistake it was.

 

[Le Jones]

Entente Cordiale - The greatest foreign policy mistake in British history. And when one looks at the shear number of things the Foreign Office have cocked up it should be clear quite how serious a mistake it was.

I started by this message by typing that I wasn't sure that the passion of this is merited, and then I remember how the Cabinet handled the negotiations, and how enmeshed into the European power keg it made us. The impact of the moral, if not the strictly legal obligation of the UK to help the French in '14 was clearly a disaster. But I still maintain that the concept wasn't automatically bonkers, it's just that the British didn't really work to gain advantage from it, and never really wielded their influence.

 

[El Pip]

I started by this message by typing that I wasn't sure that the passion of this is merited, and then I remember how the Cabinet handled the negotiations, and how enmeshed into the European power keg it made us. The impact of the moral, if not the strictly legal obligation of the UK to help the French in '14 was clearly a disaster. But I still maintain that the concept wasn't automatically bonkers, it's just that the British didn't really work to gain advantage from it, and never really wielded their influence.

I do put a very heavy weight on results/outcomes when judging things, if only because very few people start things with the intent to create a disaster that blows up in their faces. But I'm aware other value systems are available and those with a legal background probably think Mens Rea is quite important.

Certainly I agree the Entente could, maybe, have been made to work for Britain and not lead to disaster, but it was a policy which obviously required follow up and commitment and it was equally obvious that the British establishment did not want to (or perhaps could not) do so, a few individuals notwithstanding.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I do put a very heavy weight on results/outcomes when judging things, if only because very few people start things with the intent to create a disaster that blows up in their faces. But I'm aware other value systems are available and those with a legal background probably think Mens Rea is quite important.

Certainly I agree the Entente could, maybe, have been made to work for Britain and not lead to disaster, but it was a policy which obviously required follow up and commitment and it was equally obvious that the British establishment did not want to (or perhaps could not) do so, a few individuals notwithstanding.

It doesn't seem a good idea now, for the huge French army to fight the really good German army with some help from britian, who did have a really good professional army but was tiny.

Then again, with germany quite anti-britian, building a huge navy and looking to dominate Europe with its filthy hapsburg buddies, what else could britian do? Splendid isolation doesn’t really work with a superpower across the channel...

 

[El Pip]

It doesn't seem a good idea now, for the huge French army to fight the really good German army with some help from britian, who did have a really good professional army but was tiny.

Then again, with germany quite anti-britian, building a huge navy and looking to dominate Europe with its filthy hapsburg buddies, what else could britian do? Splendid isolation doesn’t really work with a superpower across the channel...

Germany had lost the naval arms race by 1912 and pretty much everyone knew it- Germany had to fund a continental sized army and was basically a poorer country than Britain, so was always going to lose. Plus the Germans were finding out that building a fleet was, in fact, the cheap part and the maintenance was ruinous, which is a shame when you had built the fleet with borrowed money you couldn't really afford.

I get the impression the Haldane Mission probably could have worked if not for the Entente tying British hands. Germany keeps the fleet they have built, so no real loss of prestige, but agrees to build no further while Britain commits to not joining in a future war and being relaxed if the border changes and/or large chunks of French Africa go Grey, so as long as Germany respects Belgian neutrality. It's easier to say than do I know, but the bones of a deal are clear. If Britain wasn't in the Entente and hadn't had to back up France in the per-war crises then Germany wouldn't have got so anti-British, so I'm not convinced that is an actual problem.

There is also the intriguing prospect of the UK joining the Triple Alliance which is probably too much to ask for, but would be a bewitching sight. There is an excellent AAR in that I'm sure, but we are somewhat getting away from the point of this thread.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I get the impression the Haldane Mission probably could have worked if not for the Entente tying British hands. Germany keeps the fleet they have built, so no real loss of prestige, but agrees to build no further while Britain commits to not joining in a future war and being relaxed if the border changes and/or large chunks of French Africa go Grey, so as long as Germany respects Belgian neutrality. It's easier to say than do I know, but the bones of a deal are clear. If Britain wasn't in the Entente and hadn't had to back up France in the per-war crises then Germany wouldn't have got so anti-British, so I'm not convinced that is an actual problem.

The fleet being a disadvantage to Germany is well known, so Britian agreeing for the most to keep it and build no more is bascially a diplomatic nicety for both sides, so should work yes. I can't see Britian agreeing to sweeping border changes in Europe sight unseen, and probably the same in Africa (or rather, the details would be precisely what Germany means to take, especially in areas bordering on GB colonies or Egypt. Germany would have to give good enough assurances that they would take land acceptable to the British, AND NO MORE, unless they want Britian to get involved. This I think would probably be the stumbling block, at least by the 1900s where it's pretty clear Germany is gunning for as much Africa as they can take.

There is also the intriguing prospect of the UK joining the Triple Alliance which is probably too much to ask for, but would be a bewitching sight. There is an excellent AAR in that I'm sure, but we are somewhat getting away from the point of this thread.

Well, the Kaiser would have to die or never take over, but aside from that I can certainly see Germany and Britian being buddies. They actually had a fairly cordial history all the way through the HRE days to the late 19th century, where it starts to go really sour. In fact there seemed to be quite a lot of admiration on both sides for most of the Victorian era at least, alongside fears that a war between the two would be disastrous for either side (see all the invasion fiction culminating in the ultimate example, the war of the worlds). I think any aar would have to start sometime in the 1870s and change the relationship then. Britian get some to be the colonial superpower whilst Germany gets to be the strongman of Europe so long as it isn't too mean on the smaller nations. Not sure whether they'd both go for that but there are advantages. No huge war to decide the fate of Europe and no naval arms race being the main two, which if they weren't in an alliance would haven to happen at some point.

So certainly in this AAR the relationship can be more...cordial. Then again Germany might arise from Austria instead and be a huge partially stable mess much like the old HRE.

 

[Jape]

VII.
Concert of Europe

Adolphe Thiers, Lord Palmerston and Prince Metternich​

In July 1836 all the great powers of Europe descended upon London. Diplomats from Austria, Prussia, Russia and France joined the Foreign Secretary Lord Palmerston to finally resolve the Belgian Question. The wealthier, predominantly Catholic southern provinces of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands had declared independence in 1830. Despite the misgivings of the conservative Holy Alliance of Vienna, Berlin and St. Petersburg, Britain and France had both ultimately supported Belgian secession. In late 1831, French troops blocked the Dutch advance on Brussels while the Royal Navy anchored in the Scheldt, forcing an indefinite armistice. The foreign policy of the liberal July Monarchy in Paris, first under Talleyrand and then his protege Adolphe Thiers, had focused on cooperation with the British.

The French Ambassador, Horace Sébastiani, worked closely with Palmerston in London to secure recognition of an independent, and crucially neutral, Belgium. Count Schimmelpenninck, the Dutch representative, found himself without allies. Prussia, initially concerned over possible designs on the francophone region, was satisfied by a free kingdom acting as a buffer state to France. The Russians and Austrians, though loathed to support the parvenu House of Orleans had little interest in fighting the Netherlands’ corner against the other powers. Tsar Nicholas was focused on unrest in Congress Poland and the Caucasus, while Chancellor Metternich was being increasingly drawn into Spanish affairs.

The éminence grise of the Austrian Empire and architect of the post-Napoleonic balance of power, Metternich had been mortified by the rise of Louis Philippe in France, claiming “my whole life’s work is destroyed”. The revolutionary unrest seen in Paris and Brussels had spread across the continent. In Iberia, both the Portuguese and Spanish thrones had become mired in civil war between absolutist and constitutionalist claimants. The liberal regimes in both countries had received open support from Britain and France. In Portugal, the reactionary Miguelistas had been forced to surrender at the Convention of Evoramonte in May 1834. The informal coalition of London, Paris, Lisbon and Madrid at the treaty signing was dubbed the Quadruple Alliance. Seen as a possible counter-weight to the Holy Alliance, Palmerston and Thiers discussed the possibility of a more formal relationship in correspondence throughout the decade.

Anglo-French cooperation continued in Spain. Don Carlos had been fighting against the liberal supporters of the six year-old Queen Isabella II since 1833, his strength focused in the Basque country and Catalonia. British and French soldiers fought alongside the liberals, with Sir George De Lacy Evans leading the volunteers of the Auxiliary Brigade, while the recently founded Foreign Legion was deployed en masse under Spanish command.

British Auxiliary Brigade at Bilbao, May 1837​

The Carlists also received foreign support. The noted adventurer and soldier Prince Friedrich von Schwarzenberg[1] had organised a battalion of absolutist volunteers in 1834 known as the Sons of the Sacred Heart. The unit had consisted almost exclusively of young German and Italian noblemen, as well as a contingent of French legitimistes[2]. Initially numbering only a few hundred, Schwarzenberg’s force soon grew under the patronage of Metternich. The Chancellor was eager to upset the Quadruple Alliance in Iberia and by the signing of the Treaty of London, Austrian funds and munitions were flowing into Barcelona. Mercenaries and volunteers from the Austrian military joined them.

Despite the material and numerical advantages of the liberals, the Carlists under Ramón Cabrera, invigorated by Austrian aid, smashed multiple government armies. At the Battle of Tortosa in August 1837, Cabrera defeated the main enemy force commanded by the Marquess of Rodil. Poorly supplied, British and French units suffered heavy casualties. News of members of the Auxiliary Brigade being executed by Carlists[3] appalled the British public but only helped turn them against intervention.

The Conservatives chastised Palmerston’s aggressive foreign policy. The Tortosa Debate in the House of Commons the following month proved a victory for the opposition, with Robert Peel needling the Foreign Secretary over British lives lost in his adventures. Informed by De Lacy Evans of the dire straits of the Auxiliary Brigade, the government sheepishly ordered for their evacuation.

Britain’s unilateral withdrawal angered Paris. The légion espagnole was itself in poor condition after Tortosa, but the French had long believed their ally had failed to shoulder their weight during the intervention. By the new year, they too had removed their forces from Spain. Despite the relatively small size of foreign contingents on either side of the civil war, the collapse of the nascent Quadruple Alliance had a profound impact on the liberal cause. By June 1838 the rebels had surrounded Madrid. On 28 July, as Isabella and her court fled for Lisbon, they entered the capital, their leader officially proclaimed King Carlos V.

Don Carlos takes Madrid, July 1838​

Metternich’s scheming had succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. The new regime completed an alliance with Vienna and Naples in September, creating a reactionary bloc in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile the loss of Spain quickly soured Anglo-French relations. Talk of an official military alliance evaporated, with the personal tensions between the bullish Palmerston and equally pigheaded Thiers coming to the fore. The two clashed over influence in their beneficiaries; Portugal and Belgium. In both countries, British investors were deeply involved in the economy, skewing their sympathies. A traditional ally, the Portuguese chose a renewal of their defensive treaty with London in the face of Carlist Spain. In Belgium, French demands for the demolition of border forts constructed after the Napoleonic Wars, and discovery of Talleyrand’s 1832 partition plan, swung Brussels in favour of Britain as well.

This led to an Anglo-Belgian defensive pact in January 1839, building upon the protections enshrined in the Treaty of London. Thiers responded by reaching out to the loser of the treaty, the Netherlands. A Franco-Dutch alliance was cemented in the summer, leading to howls of indignation in Westminster from the Tory benches, who attacked the Whigs for their “abandonment” of their old allies in Amsterdam[4]. The Duke of Wellington, still the opposition’s majordomo in foreign affairs, pointed to the situation in the Low Countries as “a vice”, with Britain’s charge clamped north and south by militarily superior foes. Palmerston took little notice, confident Prussian interests made an attack on Belgium, even by two armies, unthinkable. In the East Indies, French warships harboured in Batavia and supported the Dutch invasion of Aceh in December, despite Britain’s established interests in the sultanate. At the same time Latin America was proving an increasingly heated diplomatic battleground for London and Paris.

In an effort to re-establish French influence in the Western Hemisphere, Louis Philippe assented to punitive expeditions over the defaulted national debt of Haiti in 1838, and of Mexico in 1839. The Boyer regime in Port-au-Prince had quickly submitted in the face of French naval cannons. The tottering dictatorship of General Bustamante, seemingly incapable of withstanding another national humiliation after the loss of Texas, chose to fight. The Yucatan Expedition under the command of Admiral Baudin dragged on for two years, with over thirty thousand French troops fighting, and many dying, in the harsh tropical climate of the peninsula[5].

While the Mexicans finally agreed to a payment plan in April 1841, the cost of the invasion outstripped the debt owed. The military junta had been able to drag the conflict out only due to British financiers. The Stratford & Wilson Company of Liverpool in particular had overseen multiple loans and organised the importing of munitions into Veracruz on ships flying the Union Jack, much to the fury of Baudin. British investors had also bankrolled Mexico’s first railway, connecting the capital to Merida in Yucatan to help supply Bustamante’s forces. Stratford & Wilson’s agents in Mexico City proved politically astute, and only cemented their influence further after the fall of the junta in August that year. The new liberal government of President Valentín Farías, faced with the French invaders and American would-be invaders, finalised a trade pact with Britain in February 1842[6].

French bombard the Yucatan coast, June 1839​

Throughout South America, the power of British capital dominated. French diplomats found themselves relegated to secondary status in Venezuela, Chile, Uruguay and most importantly Brazil. The young empire’s court was witness to intense lobbying between ambassadors Sir William Ouseley and Louis Sérurier. The value of Brazilian coffee and tropical wood on the European market was massive and by 1840 had become the focus of Anglo-French rivalry in the Americas. Despite tensions between London and Rio de Janeiro over the illicit Angolan slave trade, the power of railways and shipyards secured favoured nation status for Britain.

The Companhia Estrada de Ferro São Paulo was established by English industrialist Robert Sharpe in 1838 after an Imperial decree opening Brazil up to foreign investment. Their first line connected the capital to the heart of the coffee producing Sao Paulo region. The shipwrights of Birkenhead, the masters of the new steam-frigate class, provided the Brazilian fleet with their first paddle steamer, the Abaeté in 1841. Chile too, locked in a gruelling war with Peru-Bolivia, turned to British naval yards for reinforcements. The Maule and Cazador, both built on Merseyside, proved crucial to the Chilean Navy gaining control over the Pacific coast. The Quai d’Orsay attempted to compensate by focusing French interests in countries like Argentina and Colombia, but Patagonian beef was poor compensation for the sulphur mines of Chile and rich plantations of Brazil.

While clashes over economic treaties on the other side of the globe were little acknowledged by the public back home, they greatly coloured French foreign policy. The august Talleyrand had taught Thiers that liberal Britain was their natural ally against the autocrats of Central and Eastern Europe, still haunted by the ghost of Napoleon. Ideological cooperation, little more than decoration for power politics in Iberia, had died at Tortosa, leaving only the age old rivalry. Palmerston was more than happy to inflame the growing tensions for his own gain. The Foreign Secretary’s goals with the Quadruple Alliance had been to bind France to Britain in order to hinder independent action and to exasperate Metternich[7]. Now that had failed, he intended to do quite the opposite.

Having once described the members of the Holy Alliance as “old women”, Palmerston now looked to the reactionary powers for support in the Levant. The conflict between the Ottoman Empire and their nominal Egyptian vassal, Muhammad Ali Pasha, had been festering since the viceroy’s stunning victory over the Turks in 1833. Constantinople did not recognise the regime in Cairo, or its occupation of Syria and Palestine but this was little comfort. The modernising, dynamic leadership of Muhammad Ali threatened to supplant Sultan Abdulmejid in the Middle East and perhaps overthrow the empire entirely. Such titanic change alarmed even the arch-enemies of the Turks in Vienna and St. Petersburg. Meanwhile Thiers, feeling hindered in Western Europe and the Americas, looked to Cairo to upset the status quo and cement French influence in the Mediterranean and North Africa[8].

__________​

[1] Son of the famous Austrian general who defeated Napoleon at Leipzig.
[2] Amongst the Carlist foreign volunteers was Englishman and lifelong mercenary C. F. Henningson, who was William Walker’s lieutenant in Nicaragua IOTL.
[3] Summary execution was very common during the First Carlist War, with foreign volunteers being targeted in particular.
[4] The Tories similarly attacked the Whigs IOTL for showing preference to Belgium over the Dutch. Here its even more stark but still pretty weak sauce, based on vague nostalgia for William of Orange and 1688. Excluding the continent-wide coalitions of the Napoleonic Wars, Britain and the Netherlands have not been allies since the War of Austrian Succession a century prior.
[5] The Yucatan Expedition is like OTL’s Pastry War writ large, with greater stakes and greater costs.
[6] One unexpected effect of OTL’s Pastry War was Santa Anna’s impromptu rehabilitation as a national hero. The retired general led the defence of Veracruz, losing his leg which was buried with full military honours. The war’s focus elsewhere means Santa Anna does not get the opportunity, allowing for a more stable, if less ‘interesting’, Mexico.
[7] Palmerston literally said of Evoramonte “I would like to see Metternich’s face when he reads our treaty”.
[8] But we get ahead of ourselves; Egypt will get its own chapter.

 

[Cromwell]

I am glad Egypt will be getting it's own chapter the situation sounds interesting, personally I would like to see it relieve the Ottomans of the burdern of managing territories they are clearly unable to adequately govern and protect. Of course French total control of Suez is storing up fireworks for later but that all makes for a better story!

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

In July 1836 all the great powers of Europe descended upon London.

Just in time for the insects hatching.

finally resolve the Belgian Question

Europeans are good at resolving things...

A traditional ally, the Portuguese chose a renewal of their defensive treaty with London in the face of Carlist Spain. In Belgium, French demands for the demolition of border forts constructed after the Napoleonic Wars, and discovery of Talleyrand’s 1832 partition plan, swung Brussels in favour of Britain as well.

Yummy minor powers coming with Britain. All is right in Europe.

In the East Indies, French warships harboured in Batavia and supported the Dutch invasion of Aceh in December, despite Britain’s established interests in the sultanate. At the same time Latin America was proving an increasingly heated diplomatic battleground for London and Paris.

Hmm. Troublesome.

While the Mexicans finally agreed to a payment plan in April 1841, the cost of the invasion outstripped the debt owed. The military junta had been able to drag the conflict out only due to British financiers. The Stratford & Wilson Company of Liverpool in particular had overseen multiple loans and organised the importing of munitions into Veracruz on ships flying the Union Jack, much to the fury of Baudin. British investors had also bankrolled Mexico’s first railway, connecting the capital to Merida in Yucatan to help supply Bustamante’s forces. Stratford & Wilson’s agents in Mexico City proved politically astute, and only cemented their influence further after the fall of the junta in August that year. The new liberal government of President Valentín Farías, faced with the French invaders and American would-be invaders, finalised a trade pact with Britain in February 1842[6].

More minor powers for the British, but in this case they may have bankrolled a fight they can't really win. I don't see them steaming to the rescue of Mexico if Amercia wants another go. Maybe come the civil war, but I doubt it.

Having once described the members of the Holy Alliance as “old women”, Palmerston now looked to the reactionary powers for support in the Levant. The conflict between the Ottoman Empire and their nominal Egyptian vassal, Muhammad Ali Pasha, had been festering since the viceroy’s stunning victory over the Turks in 1833. Constantinople did not recognise the regime in Cairo, or its occupation of Syria and Palestine but this was little comfort. The modernising, dynamic leadership of Muhammad Ali threatened to supplant Sultan Abdulmejid in the Middle East and perhaps overthrow the empire entirely. Such titanic change alarmed even the arch-enemies of the Turks in Vienna and St. Petersburg. Meanwhile Thiers, feeling hindered in Western Europe and the Americas, looked to Cairo to upset the status quo and cement French influence in the Mediterranean and North Africa[8].

Time to REALLY start empire building and scramble all over Africa before France gets there! Dare I say international crisis followed by humiliating the French?

[4] The Tories similarly attacked the Whigs IOTL for showing preference to Belgium over the Dutch. Here its even more stark but still pretty weak sauce, based on vague nostalgia for William of Orange and 1688. Excluding the continent-wide coalitions of the Napoleonic Wars, Britain and the Netherlands have not been allies since the War of Austrian Succession a century prior.

For various reasons, despite at least two chances of personal union, the British and the Dutch never got on and fought a lot before cooling their guns. Them buddying up to the French and making trouble in the Far East might see Belgium become more of an asset than a load to protect...

 

[DensleyBlair]

Count Schimmelpenninck, the Dutch representative, found himself without allies.

Reading that name takes me right back to @LordTempest's Dutch AAR from years ago. Good memories.

based on vague nostalgia for William of Orange and 1688

Tories nostalgic for 1688? What next, Whigs nostalgic for the Jacobite succession!?

Excellent work on this update, @Jape. I adore the vagaries of continental diplomacy in this period, so it was a real treat getting Pam, Theirs and Metternich all in one go. While we're getting some hint of Pam's adventuring tendency (no doubt to be continued), it seems he has come away with his share of victories. It does pain me to see relations break down so much with the July Monarchy, mind. I have no love for the House of Orléans, but they did at least oversee a nice few years of entente.

Excited to see Egypt on the horizon!

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Tories nostalgic for 1688?

I know, its the kind of terrible joke I'd write!

I suppose there are still jacobites running around, or at least vaugley connected to british politics (although the last time I think they were even brought up was slurring the abolitionist movement in the 1800s. But since we have yet to get to the discussion of Union and Empire, it might come up again...but probably not? I don't know, does vicky 2 think jacobites are still a thing as a rebel group?

 

[DensleyBlair]

does vicky 2 think jacobites are still a thing as a rebel group?

There are generic “reactionaries”, so I suppose from an RP sense maybe. But there’s no specific Jacobite groups as far as I know.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

There are generic “reactionaries”, so I suppose from an RP sense maybe. But there’s no specific Jacobite groups as far as I know.

Those reactionary movements seem annoying. We know from previous spainish aars that the Carlists are near impossible to be got rid of, so having them take over might benefit Spain in the long run just to avoid constant civil war.

 

[DensleyBlair]

Those reactionary movements seem annoying. We know from previous spainish aars that the Carlists are near impossible to be got rid of, so having them take over might benefit Spain in the long run just to avoid constant civil war.

Honestly I think the whole rebel system needs an overhaul. But that’s just another thing to add to the mythical Vicky 3 wish list… :/

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Honestly I think the whole rebel system needs an overhaul. But that’s just another thing to add to the mythical Vicky 3 wish list… :/

It'll happen one day. It just might be crap.

 

[stnylan]

Britain and France ... well I think it is fair to say both nations probably love to hate each other with a good-natured, pass the claret sort of way.

And Egypt is the be the next place to party it seems.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

And Egypt is the be the next place to party it seems.

Unfortunately we're getting to the age where the French and British start sharing everything after fighting about it, regardless of consequence. Hopefully this aar will have it so one country owns Egypt and suez, instead of three (or two and a half).

 

[El Pip]

Meanwhile the loss of Spain quickly soured Anglo-French relations. Talk of an official military alliance evaporated, with the personal tensions between the bullish Palmerston and equally pigheaded Thiers coming to the fore. ​

That's a relief, Anglo-French co-operation always makes me nervous. Luckily this mistakes was relatively low cost so hopefully the lesson has been learned in Spain and we will not see a repetition of this terrible error of policy.

Charles V is a portentous number, the previous 'V's have all done quite well for themselves so I expect Great Things from Carlist Spain, or failing that Interesting Things.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

That's a relief, Anglo-French co-operation always makes me nervous.

You can say that again...and probably will have to.

Charles V is a portentous number, the previous 'V's have all done quite well for themselves

If he's anything like the last Charles V ascoiated with Spain, the world is in for interesting times at least. Probably not peace though.