sure. but there's not that many French communists.
sure, there's lots of people who agree with many of their goals. but they aren't eager to see Russians blasting their way into Paris.
nationalism is a helluva drug.
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sure, there's lots of people who agree with many of their goals. but they aren't eager to see Russians blasting their way into Paris.
nationalism is a helluva drug.
Germans had/still have a very different view of Russia and Russians than the French. We don't traditionally cheer for them because of a neighbor we can't beat alone.
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That is not really true, when the congress of Tours happen with the split of the SFIO, a majority of activists join the new SFIC, plus an influx of others, up until the point that people started getting expelled and excluded. Furthermore, non-communists also supported the Soviets, including revolutionnary syndicalists and anarchists. Little to no information, beyond the 21 conditions, was available in French, so this support wasn't based upon detailed knowledge of Lenin's political writings but rather the idea and image of the October Revolution.
Well, only to the pre-war border. Further, the problems would have emerged: only few interconnectors between different railway systems and of course the gauge.
At the end of the war Polish army had ca. a million soldiers. In September 1920, just after the battle, the first line units on the front had ca. 380k, including allies like Ukrainians or... White Russians.
It was actually pretty serious war...
Well, I'm sure you've taken into account, when Poland falls, the large Polish cities will be turned into Bolsheviks logistical- and supply centers, so the only hubs are not anymore Moscow/Petrograd/Kiev, also, the farther we go west, the better infrastructure?
I don't see using bombers (if talking about aircraft here) crucial if thinking Red Army invading and (maybe) defeating the Reichswehr in 1920. The air force didn't have as decisive role in the WWI and this matter hasn't changed while in 1920.
But there are Soviet tanks in 1920. Lenin M1 is a copy of the French Renault FT-17 and is produced in the Soviet-Russia for the Polish-Soviet War. In addition, the Bolsheviks have several different models of armored cars and half-tracks.
Now, where did I say, the Germans aren't going to fight back? Of course they will, what I have said, I doubt the Reichswehr's capability to oppose the Red Army, if they are not supported by the Allies. Simultaneously, the Reichswehr has to fight against the German revolutionaries and it's also hard to arrange draft and mobilize population from the rebellious areas.
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you get more resistance as well. and things don't flip on a dime.
plus, it's a wartorn, battle weary poland. which was also fighting you just yesterday. and just won its freedom from the russians for the first time in what, 150 years?
WE WILL BE GREETED AS LIBERATORS!
The Germans would win, and handily. They are fighting in Germany and their enemy is hundreds of miles from their supply center. And in real life lost to Poland, which had been a country for like 5 weeks.
Well, I guess, we'll never find out what would have happened in Europe if it was a Soviet victory at Vistula, but there are many alternatives and opinions like this thread proves.
But you might get opposed while stating Poland a-five-week-country
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maybe you round up and get 6 weeks.Well, I guess, we'll never find out what would have happened in Europe if it was a Soviet victory at Vistula, but there are many alternatives and opinions like this thread proves.
But you might get opposed while stating Poland a-five-week-country
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The more I've read about Germany post Great War the more certain I am that post Spartacist revolt, the military and civilian government cooperation was ascendant and the people by large weren't resentful of their military in the post war, had the Russians beaten the Poles and were on the border with Germany, the Germans would've tossed aside any treaty provisions in the way of defending their borders and I honestly don't think the western allies would've intervened, after all, Poland falling would scare France and Britain too. France of course wouldn't just roll over on the issue but in the immediate short term of a German/Soviet war, the western allies wouldn't invade Germany from the west as they were repelling the Soviets, and the Soviets under no circumstances could beat the veteran German forces defending their own country.
The only way it works is if somehow Britain and France re-implement the blockade on Germany, but why would they risk the Soviets seizing the industrial powerhouse of Germany.
Nah, Germans would beat the Soviets unfortunately. The German military survived the war with all it's clout among the population following the premature and badly failed communist uprising of the year prior. Maybe if Luxembourg somehow delayed the uprising until the fall of Warsaw, but she didn't and couldn't even if she had future vision.
I think what's more interesting and plausible as a question is would Germany be able to take back it's pre-war eastern border with Poland? Would the allies object? Would the Soviets escalate to war over that? That's a huge grey area I wish I could know the answer to. And if there was a German/Soviet war it would be over that Polish border, not the liberation of the German worker
The only way it works is if somehow Britain and France re-implement the blockade on Germany, but why would they risk the Soviets seizing the industrial powerhouse of Germany.
Nah, Germans would beat the Soviets unfortunately. The German military survived the war with all it's clout among the population following the premature and badly failed communist uprising of the year prior. Maybe if Luxembourg somehow delayed the uprising until the fall of Warsaw, but she didn't and couldn't even if she had future vision.
I think what's more interesting and plausible as a question is would Germany be able to take back it's pre-war eastern border with Poland? Would the allies object? Would the Soviets escalate to war over that? That's a huge grey area I wish I could know the answer to. And if there was a German/Soviet war it would be over that Polish border, not the liberation of the German worker
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Completely hypothetical ofc but why not? Posen going to Poland was result of armed uprising in nov.1918, Danzig and the corridor were creations of the Versailles treaty 1919, upper Silesia being partitioned was the result of 1921 plebiscites that had not happened yet as of 1920 when the soviets invaded Poland.
The plebiscite would be postponed / called off and the polish insurgents on that area would have other things to do so that part would remain with Germany.
Danzig would remain a league of nations governed territory and point of escape for many polish trying to flee red terror so maybe it doesn't have a pro German reannexation movement right away... But it will have one before long if Poland collapses or comes under German occupation as result of a Soviet-German war.
The corridor and Posen are right in the middle of the war zone in case of a Soviet-German war. So yeah of course the Germans world reoccupy those parts of the Soviets are pushed back.
Depending on how much of east Prussia the Soviets occupy, the Germans might however trade parts of Posen back for those parts of East Prussia, if peace is concluded early? Hard to tell, it all depends. But without Entente boots on the ground, of course the Germans will create any de facto revision they like, and have it legalized again once the war is over.
Or the Germans can do the sane thing: a rump Poland completely dependent on Germany to guard itself from Soviet Russia. If somehow the Baltic States can be pressed into the scheme we have a reborn Brest-Litovsk.
I don't doubt Germans can beat the Soviets if they invade Germany, but if Germany is invading Poland, defeated by the soviets or otherwise, the allies are definitely doing something at that point. There's no way they're letting Germany simply set up a puppet kingdom. The allies certainly hate communism, but France was vehement about weakening Germany, they simply can't have a remilitarized enemy on the warpath again, and I'm not sure Germans would be happy about it either.
Like I said before though, this is super grey area
It's an interesting thought whether the Soviets would make peace right away. Many of the Communists wanted the future trotskyist notion of taking the revolution straight to Germany, but a lot of them also just wanted to reconstitute the Russian Empire in a Socialist umbrella so it's hard to say what the Soviets would want from Germany, would they push until it was obvious no German revolution was about to erupt? or would they immediately be looking for a quick victory on the field for a favorable treaty for a good border to foment revolution in the future?
So grey, so interesting a question.
I do reiterate though that I think the Soviets fail every time if they truly intend to overthrow Weimar though, I think the harder they push the more they strengthen the military and nationalists hands, maybe even to overthrow the republic into a neo Ludendorff dictatorship just to stave off the Soviet menace. The SDP already shot their load getting into bed with the old elites hoping to maintain civilian control over the military, would they be able to keep the military back in a full blown soviet invasion? I find that doubtful with so many nationalist sympathies among the rank and file
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Come on, they are liberating Poland.
But let's play out this scenario. So the Red Army is checked at the German-Polish border... part of the German army crosses the said border due to military necessities (pursuit, encircle whatever the retreating Soviets).
1.) will the Entente send a strongly worded telegram to Berlin that they have to immediately withdraw to the agreed border?
If yes: the Red Army recovers at some point and establish the Polish SSR... would the Entente allow it
If not: the Reichswehr is in full pursuit mode and they try to conscript a Polish Liberation Army
2.) will the Entete stop it? Are they sending their own troops to relieve the Germans at that point.
The pro-German Polish Anticommunist Army has cleared Poland while Germany and Poland negotiated an armistice/peace with Soviet-Russia.
3.) what cards do the Entente possess at this stage? Are they restart a war for a regime change in Poland? Who will lead the pro-Entente Polish Government?
Depends on whether or not Paris wants to start a war.Come on, they are liberating Poland.
But let's play out this scenario. So the Red Army is checked at the German-Polish border... part of the German army crosses the said border due to military necessities (pursuit, encircle whatever the retreating Soviets).
1.) will the Entente send a strongly worded telegram to Berlin that they have to immediately withdraw to the agreed border?
If yes: the Red Army recovers at some point and establish the Polish SSR... would the Entente allow it
If not: the Reichswehr is in full pursuit mode and they try to conscript a Polish Liberation Army
2.) will the Entete stop it? Are they sending their own troops to relieve the Germans at that point.
The pro-German Polish Anticommunist Army has cleared Poland while Germany and Poland negotiated an armistice/peace with Soviet-Russia.
3.) what cards do the Entente possess at this stage? Are they restart a war for a regime change in Poland? Who will lead the pro-Entente Polish Government?
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Germany 1920, that's not a nation that is in shape to prosecute a war deep into Poland. They just fought and lost a huge war, they lack the basics like big fuel stores, running locomotives, ammunition, horses, foreign currency to buy essentials, and so on. The moment Germany tries to mobilize even just a fraction of the manpower it mobilized in 1914, economic shortages and unrest will rear their ugly head. Not just red revolutionaries who try another shot at overthrowing the government now that the roaming right wing death squads are busy playing soldier again in Pomerania. But also genuinely angry workers and farmers, who after 4-5 years of deprivation and hunger want the government to stay out of martial adventures or at least don't want to pay the extra taxes have their sons and horses conscripted again. These would support a defensive war, and a 'liberation' of former German provinces, but the "adventure expedition" into Poland would be a step too far for them. At that point a still partially democratic German government would have to hand over the war effort to the Poles and the Entente and pull back the army to the reclaimed borders, or risk having those non socialist dissenters join the revolutionaries. Like happened in 1918, to the not democratic Imperial government.Come on, they are liberating Poland.
But let's play out this scenario. So the Red Army is checked at the German-Polish border... part of the German army crosses the said border due to military necessities (pursuit, encircle whatever the retreating Soviets).
1.) will the Entente send a strongly worded telegram to Berlin that they have to immediately withdraw to the agreed border?
If yes: the Red Army recovers at some point and establish the Polish SSR... would the Entente allow it
If not: the Reichswehr is in full pursuit mode and they try to conscript a Polish Liberation Army
2.) will the Entete stop it? Are they sending their own troops to relieve the Germans at that point.
The pro-German Polish Anticommunist Army has cleared Poland while Germany and Poland negotiated an armistice/peace with Soviet-Russia.
3.) what cards do the Entente possess at this stage? Are they restart a war for a regime change in Poland? Who will lead the pro-Entente Polish Government?
They can of course slap together a fairly capable army using Reichswehr cadres, Freikorps and local militias, and equip them with light and medium weapons that the Entente are going to grant them for fighting off a bolshevik offensive against Germany's eastern provinces. That's going to be a patriotic effort that will find support. But such efforts do not give Germany the reserves in foodstuffs, fuel, ammunition, and currency they need to really gear up and push the bolsheviks deep into Poland. For that, Germany in 1920 is just not ready, without blanc cheque type support from the Entente (which would not be forthcoming)
The moment the Germans cross the boarder into Poland the Entente powers will send military missions to arm and equip a native Polish army beholden to them, not Germany. In the Baltic nations the British and French did the same thing, and the result was a group of nations who were in no way puppets of either Germany or the Soviet Union.
I am sure the Entente would allow the Germans to defend themselves, but with their foot firmly on Germany's neck in the early 1920s there is no chance of the Germans being permitted to dominate Poland.
I am sure the Entente would allow the Germans to defend themselves, but with their foot firmly on Germany's neck in the early 1920s there is no chance of the Germans being permitted to dominate Poland.
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I don't know is the thing. Britain is almost definitely out after already having some reservations about the most strict anti-german provisions in the Versailles treaty and being the most committed anti-bolshevik power in the western intervention of the Russian civil war, i.e. they want the Soviets to lose more than they want the Germans to be punished.Come on, they are liberating Poland.
But let's play out this scenario. So the Red Army is checked at the German-Polish border... part of the German army crosses the said border due to military necessities (pursuit, encircle whatever the retreating Soviets).
1.) will the Entente send a strongly worded telegram to Berlin that they have to immediately withdraw to the agreed border?
If yes: the Red Army recovers at some point and establish the Polish SSR... would the Entente allow it
If not: the Reichswehr is in full pursuit mode and they try to conscript a Polish Liberation Army
2.) will the Entete stop it? Are they sending their own troops to relieve the Germans at that point.
The pro-German Polish Anticommunist Army has cleared Poland while Germany and Poland negotiated an armistice/peace with Soviet-Russia.
3.) what cards do the Entente possess at this stage? Are they restart a war for a regime change in Poland? Who will lead the pro-Entente Polish Government?
France however is another matter, but would the French High Command really restart a war without Britain? France is completely devastated by war at this point and leftist thought is not at all dispelled in their armed forces, going back to war sounds like a sure way to jump start the KR communard revolution for real this time.
I just don't really think the Entente has it in them to force Germany to back down when the Soviets are a credible threat following the dismantling of Poland. Sevres was never enforced, I'm not sure France and Britain have the stones to enforce Versailles.
I think Germany wins the Soviet-German war sure, but would the Weimar government really be so bold as to try and reimplment a brest-litovsk style puppet regime in Poland? Do they just undo the eastern border change? maybe. But I can't say for certain. I feel more confident in a military coup in Germany during or after this Soviet war than I am confident in whatever Germany would do to the territory it pushes the Soviets out of.
but basically I don't think Entente stop Germany. Their political will is spent and their fear of the Soviets after a fall of Poland would be sky-high
A pro-German Polish Anticommunist Army would not be a brest-litovsk style puppet regime. It would be the same people who in OTL ran Poland after WW1. They would be grateful to Germany, to an extent. The Germans wouldn't be strong enough to dominate Poland so the Polish would be free to negotiate with the Entente as they like, Germany would not be able to stop them. The Polish German border is an issue where facts on the ground would establish the basis for a negotiated settlement: Regions with German population and German de facto control are lost to Poland, that's a given. That would be Danzig, and the Grenzmark. Regions with mixed population and de facto German control, would be subject to negotiation over civil rights and cultural autonomy, under German rule, by terms of a mutual treaty. That would be upper Silesia, and perhaps the Pomerelles (corridor) region. Regions with predominantly polish population and German de facto control (Posen) could theoretically get a plebiscite as a face saving way for Germany to accede to Entente pressure in favor of Poland, and return these to Poland. It would not even be all that terrible for Germany to let go of Posen. Posen was an agricultural region with little industry, and the strongly polish national character there would be a headache for a German state that isn't as strong and forceful about repressing its citizens as the Kaiserreich was. A plebiscite would surely see 70-80% majority in favor of Poland, and the two states could arrange a population exchange to swap Germans from Posen for Poles from upper Silesia to reduce the ethnic tension. Poland would also want (even need) some kind of agreement over the use of the now German ports in Danzig since that's their main overseas export terminal. Without the use of that port, Poland would be economically cut off from much of the world trade and have to pay through the nose for imports via Lithuania or Czechoslovakia. German domination of the Baltic coast means Poland has to join a likely not too favorable customs agreement with Germany in order to use Danzig. Potentially Zollverein 2.0?
The Entente powers would strongly push for Poland to not become a subordinate economic partner of Germany like that but what's the leverage...? It depends on whether the German leadership wants accommodation with the Entente or wants to stand alone, defiantly. IOTL the Germans had a strong tendency to favor Soviet Russia on order to balance out the Entente, while Poland was 100% Entente aligned and had very hostile relations with both Germany and Soviet Russia. Here, Germany has hostile relations with Soviet Russia, and Poland is 50% Entente aligned, 50% German aligned. Germany might be a lot more relaxed about accommodations either way, so they might accommodate Entente anxiousness over Poland's access to Danzig and grant them customs exempt/customs reduced access anyways, in exchange for agreement to population exchanges and polish agreement to a rollback of the border to mostly 1914 status (except perhaps Posen). Certainly possible, and a better setup for German-Polish relations in the years to come, than what there was IOTL.
I think JodelDiplom makes a few good points, but the final arrangements will depend very heavily on how the war goes, and who ends up holding what. Germany should push the Soviets back from the German border without too much trouble, since the Soviets will be overstretched at that point, but Germany can't push too far into Poland without support by the Entente for exactly the same reason: their logistical capacity is limited. The Entente will try to insure that Germany wins, but doesn't "win big", and may try to insert modest forces and military aid to assist the Poles in liberating themselves, rather than directly supporting the Germans.
The Soviets will probably have to withdraw to some defensible line, but might end up anywhere between getting nothing and holding the eastern half of Poland at the end. Whatever's left of Poland will likely be reconstituted (yet again) with some concessions to Germany, but probably a lot less than Germany would hope for. As said, some mutual population transfers or plebiscites on both sides of the agreed line might be in order, allowing all concerned to save face. Future relations between Poland and Germany, and between Germany and the Entente, would depend heavily on the demands and negotiations at the end.
The only certainty is that the 20th Century would turn out very differently than OTL.
The Soviets will probably have to withdraw to some defensible line, but might end up anywhere between getting nothing and holding the eastern half of Poland at the end. Whatever's left of Poland will likely be reconstituted (yet again) with some concessions to Germany, but probably a lot less than Germany would hope for. As said, some mutual population transfers or plebiscites on both sides of the agreed line might be in order, allowing all concerned to save face. Future relations between Poland and Germany, and between Germany and the Entente, would depend heavily on the demands and negotiations at the end.
The only certainty is that the 20th Century would turn out very differently than OTL.