Continuing to get caught up on some of the excellent material I have missed, I reckon it is time that I finish reading this AAR, a finished AAR being a rare treat for any readAAR let alone one such as this.
Interestingly, most of Guangxi's army was extremely under strength. Chiang suspected the division's officers were reporting their divisions as full strength and then pocketing the pay of the soldiers that did not actually exist. The NRA had struggled for quite some time to eradicate this corrupt practice, and it had only ever been finished thanks to several executions of complacent division commanders. (Note: In OTL, the KMT never solved this problem since they lost most of their government apparatus in the retreat west, allowing generals to pretty much do what they wanted.)
I'd never actually put together that the chaotic retreat west played such a significant role in the proliferation of corruption among military officers - ultimately contributing to the Communist victory later on. Very insightful!
(Note: I'm not quite sure why Guangxi gets to start with a tank division consisting of one LARM, two MOT. As far as I can tell, the actual ROC owned more tanks than Guangxi ever did but still not enough to qualify for a tank division in game. There isn't as much information on who owned how many trucks, but I still find it hard to believe Guangxi owned a significant amount. This is one minor issue with HPP: Guangxi's starting army seems overly strong for no reason I know of. They also have several divisions that are four INF, one SUP while the rest of China is stuck with binary divisions. If anyone has some information I don't, I'd greatly appreciate it!)
I'm not sure, but the Guangxi OOB file looks like it was made by someone different from whoever made the NatChi file (the Chinese OOBs in general seem to have these symptoms), and the Guangxi modeler seems to have tried to model the difference between the various "levels" of divisions by mixing square and binary divisions (both types exist in the OOB file), whereas the NatChi OOB uses binary INF and binary MIL divisions instead (which is probably more accurate when translated into game mechanics). Modeling Chinese OOBs in this period is actually quite difficult as their organizations are poorly matched with the Western models HoI3 is based on even without counting the wide variance depending on which warlord controlled each division, so it's understandable that this difference of approaches exists. Back when HPP was being developed by the full team it seems that they did not always coordinate very closely on making sure everything followed common rules - something the current team is now working to address slowly but surely.
However, Chiang's frustration turned to fury when he was roused from his sleep on Mar. 15 to terrible news: a massive Japanese army was attempting to land on the Shandong peninsula, in an attack named Operation Ichi-Go. At least ten divisions were trying to gain a beachhead, including mountaineers and elite SNLF marines. All the KMT had to oppose them was a single corps of militia, spread across the entire peninsula.
The Japanese chose to land on a relatively sparse portion of the coast between the major ports of Qingdao and Weihai. The Chinese militias guarding Weihai and Qingdao were ordered to rush to the landing zone and stall as long as possible. Meanwhile, KMT reserves were being mustered to throw the landing back into the sea before the Japanese could break out.
The elite core of the Chinese military was currently stuck in the south, battling the warlords for dominance. Chiang was furious, but he had to admit the Japanese had picked the perfect time and place to attack. They must have known Chiang's armies were miles away and unable to respond, while the Shandong peninsula would make a very defensible perimeter for the numerically inferior IJA. It was also close to the KMT heartlands and threatened the major cities all along the coast of China.
A clever move, which really shows the difficulty of controlling all of China even as the victor with such a large army. Even if the warlord states were not currently slated for invasions, the NRA would be so spread-out trying to secure Manchuria, various borders, and the coastline that Japan could probably do a similar landing if they could gather the forces in any case.
Second, it had been learned that a traitor was behind the audacious Japanese landing in Shandong. Gen. Han Fuqu, former warlord and now governor of Shandong, had provided the Japanese with maps, of the beaches and had diverted NRA patrols away from the landing site in exchange for a massive bribe.
This is only to be expected from the corrupt NRA which has not yet been fully cleansed.
Meanwhile, the Battle of Nanning was finally nearing its close after KMT forces had surrounded the city on three sides, increasing pressure on the defenders. The battle did not end until Mar. 25, leaving over 10,000 Guangxi soldiers as casualties for only 1,500 KMT soldiers. (Note: I've never seen such a high casualty rate for one battle! I almost feel sorry for them!)
HPP does a nice job of giving overall bigger casualty figures, IMO, without being quite as extreme as BICE which seems to have a fetish for meat-grinders.
Note: And here ends the gameplay. Japan really did land a huge army in Shandong while I was battling the warlords, impressing me greatly! Unfortunately for them, I don't think they were aggressive enough and would probably be doomed to destruction once my infantry showed up. I might allow Japan to be a bit smarter in the epilogue, but we shall see...
I suspect this was as aggressive as they could be having lost most of their army in Manchuria and northern China already. I'd be surprised if besides this they had more than a few infantry divisions and otherwise many scattered garrisons across the Pacific empire.
I'm afraid I can't answer your question about the Guangxi Clique's starting forces. I do know that one of the mod's creators had a special interest in the Chinese theatre but I can't be sure who was responsible for that particular OOB and whether it is accurate or not.
TheBromgrev was I think the main author who pushed for improvements in the Chinese theater, but I don't think the Guangxi OOB was made by him as its modeling is not matched by any other Chinese nation (including CommChi which I know he was fond of, I think he did an AAR of them actually).
If that landing had happened say 18 months earlier then the Sino-Japanese War would have gone very differently, almost a shame it didn't as it would have added a bit more tension to that part of the campaign.
Mixed bag here due to the AI as always. In the past I've modded the game to force Japan to start with a Shanghai front in China, and the AI performed much worse due to the struggle of splitting forces between two fronts. A human Japan player could definitely take advantage (ask me how I know...), but the AI unfortunately provides the most tension and excitement when attacking along only one front.
Well, that's OK to hear. I suspect any OOB for the warlords would be impossible to make perfect since there's a lack of detailed information on them.
You can actually find enough information from different sources to at least assemble a reasonable listing of Chinese divisions (and approximate the higher OOBs, corps and so on, with reasonable fidelity). The problem really is that it's not well-documented who actually had real control over each division and how well-equipped they were. You might have eight divisions from a region, two are well-equipped under Chiang's personal command, three are well-equipped under command of some warlord, two are basically militia under that warlord's lieutenant, and one is a poorly-armed garrison under service of a corrupt general who serves none of the above. If you modeled NatChi as a single country without all the warlord states, it would probably be much easier.
I know HOI2 DH had Shanghai under Japanese control which is perhaps a bit dramatic, but I suspect it was meant to encourage that behavior. Most of the Chinese units are locked until Japan attacks though, giving the Japanese AI a chance to expand their control fairly quickly. I could see a Shanghai bridgehead just being a disaster for Japan as they feed in enough units to be a significant loss, but not enough to actually gain ground.
As stated, I've done this and it was indeed a disaster for the AI.
As Chiang's armies rushed north to crush the Japanese landing in Shandong, it soon became clear those had only been phase one of Op. Ichi-Go. A second landing was made in Korea, centered around the port of Pusan. Japanese propaganda called upon the Korean people to 'throw off their Chinese oppressors and their running-dog puppet government, returning to the safe embrace of their Emperor'. This was not as effective as the Japanese had hoped, but it was certainly more effective than most Koreans or Chinese would admit after the war.
Thousands of Koreans answered the call, seeing Japanese dominance as their chance to regain the power and privilege they held in the colonial government.
A good representation, there are always collaborators who enjoy their positions under a conqueror and would welcome them back, but most people desire their freedom and will be glad to see the oppressor(s) go.
This then allowed Chiang to turn the 2. Army north as well, although these units were tasked with securing the coasts against any more Japanese landings. Chiang did not know the Japanese were nearly spent, and he had become increasingly paranoid that further landings could come at any moment.
A good bit to represent the dreaded Fog of War!
In return, Chiang's government recognized Taiwan was an integral part of Japan and allowed Japan favorable trade rights in Korea.
Ouch, that has to hurt...interesting to retain the OTL mainland vs Taiwan dynamic but here the ROC is on the other side of things. I wonder how Taiwan would feel about this in the ATL given time?
Japan had a much worse crisis following the peace treaty as their entire system seemed to be collapsing around them. The IJA had proven incompetent and shattered the people's faith in militarism, turning most of the important government ministers against the idea. However, it had also shattered Japan's decades-long quest for resources, leaving the country uncertain where to turn. Perhaps the most devastating issue was the return of hundreds of thousands of Japanese soldiers that had been captured in China. Bushido held that these men were cowardly traitors, unfit for respect and honor. However, most Japanese families had a father, son, brother, or close neighbor that had been a prisoner, making their treatment a dilemma. The Japanese people were forced to choose between their national idea and their familial love, dividing the country for years to come.
This is the kind of material that would make for a compelling AAR in a Vic2 mod leading to a Kaiserreich-style WW3 as the complicated Japanese national culture is forced to choose a side.
Note: I decided to pull a Bullfilter and turn a single update into two or three!
While I think El Pip has been doing this since long before our esteemed Aussie authAAR has, I approve of this nomenclature and it is good that he is finally being recognized for the correct things, these being his crimes against the readAARship of course.
Great post! I like the idea that the defeat roils Japan, as well it should. Not to mention that their defeat costs the IJA so much, which probably leads to the IJN being the clear victor in the Government. With their need for resources unsated, but China and Russia closed to them, do the Japanese resort again to the Strike South clique? I'd imagine so. They would be even more interested in getting SE Asia into the Empire.
I'd imagine the IJN would of course become dominant, but without the IJA even the Japanese admirals will have to admit that they are in no shape to prosecute a Pacific War without troops to fight on the beaches. If nothing else some materiel must be spent to rebuild the IJA into a home defense force, although perhaps they will not be so politically independent as the Navy may exercise considerable control over their rebuilding.
More probable might be an IJN which builds up and takes advantage of WWII-induced decolonization to extend its sphere of influence into the SEA/Pacific region through gunboat diplomacy, securing access to the rare materials and oil reserves in Malaya, Borneo, etc. Basically influencing those nations by supporting independence and preferring economic ties over European-style colonialism - backed up of course by a powerful navy to rule the seas and protect that valuable trade.
As to the divisions that had been overrun: I always thought that Japan should have two tactics that are only available to them: Banzai, which causes intense damage to both attacker and defender, and the evolution into a sort of Bushido-enforced fight to the death function (think Okinawa and Iwo Jima) where they can get crazy high defensiveness stats and cause significant losses to attackers. Or a way to model that attrition for an attacker that can get super high (to reflect how long it took the Americans to pacify those islands.
This is I think possible to mod in with the use of hidden technologies. Thus I assume BICE has done it.
Looking ahead I am hoping for the amusing outcome post-war. A post-coup Japan ends up IJN dominated who don't strike South but focus on building up strength. To that end South Korea experiences massive growth under Japan as they need the extra industry and have worked out a partner is more productive than an oppressed colony. Meanwhile the Soongs and Chiang get their hooks into the North and it just spirals into a pit of corruption, opium and decay as dodgy contracts and favours to friends become the norm. Japan coming to be seen as the 'good' power compared to the 'exploitative colonial' Chinese would be a nice irony and definitely at the more likely end of the spectrum.
Something like this, but also eventually extended to the old British/Dutch colonial possessions (though the Americans I think will prefer to keep the Philippines).
I thought Konoe was briefly interested in peace in 1940? Perhaps it was someone else in his government because Japan periodically considered negotiating a peace, with varying levels of seriousness of course.
I am sure there were plenty of Japanese government members who at any point were interested in peace, given he fractious at best nature of Imperial Japanese politics. The question has always been which faction has the power to make their word become law. Given the humiliation of the IJA and I'm sure the disinterest of the IJN in prosecuting this war (especially after losing valuable SNLF formations in the Army's abortive invasion plans), peace seems entirely probable.
It's obviously a bit of a stretch to write a China that wins the Second Sino-Japanese War, but I hope this is as realistic as possible. I think this peace is a reasonable extrapolation from game events, but it's not realistic to OTL obviously. I hope this doesn't detract from the rest of the epilogue for you.
Don't mind El Pip, he always demands the most confusing, complicated, and generally muddled results by force of habit I am sure, as these sorts of things naturally lend themselves to writing decades-long AARs about airplane engine cooling and carbide manufacturing.
I don't think Japan would ever be seen as the 'good' power, just because there is going to be a lot of bitterness about the colonial era and various crimes. I think the Japanese will be able to run better businesses though, making the KMT look bad and complicating Korea's foreign relations since it turns out neither neighbor is 'good'.
This is I think an understated consideration, as the zaibatsu/corporations will likely fill some of the power vacuum left by the IJA's utter embarrassment. Which should in turn promote some of that economic-sphere-of-influence thinking I was bringing up just above.
Really well done mate, you’ve reasonably achieved the aims you set out for China at the start and to take things further now might be overkill. Especially when you have two other AARs going!
I don't know how you madmen manage to juggle so many projects at once, really.
Ahh, I should have known he wasn't a real dove at any point. I didn't feel like digging through Japanese politicians to dig up a more plausible dove, so I guess Konoe had a change of heart in the AAR's universe
Ah, yes, the famous "change of heart" also known as "I like my job and want to keep it".
The most shocking part of the attack was that the panzer divisions advanced through the Ardennes forest, terrain the French had thought totally unsuitable to tank warfare.
Here I know you are making things up because the HoI3 Germany AI is pathologically incapable of this.
The French initially resisted, but the Chinese forces crossed the border anyways,
Some things never change.
This was but the prelude for a larger revolt among radical IJN officers, reminiscent of the February 26 Incident of 1936.
Some things never change.
The Japanese government's foreign policy was also changed during the Showa Restoration, taking a less aggressive tone while still aiming to project strength. Rather than forcibly securing resources from either the mainland or southeast Asia, trade with the United States and Soviet Union was increased.
Not sure that the trade with the Soviets would be anything but DOA. THere might be less tension due to lack of Manchurian borders, but Japanese-Russian tensions have a long and storied history and still plenty of flash points in Sakhalin and the Kurils that would tend to deflate any political will for closer relations.
Still on the other hand perhaps the Zaibatsu have some interest in Soviet markets for their war machines, certainly the Army would take some time to rebuild enough forces to really use the equipment.
I think people that argue KMT China would become a democracy if they had won the Civil War in OTL are wrong, but this China avoided the worst effects of OTL WWII and aren't in quite as bad of a situation. They're basically an authoritarian, right-wing dictatorship that struggles to get out of poverty, but also isn't a complete disaster. Fairly common in the post-war era, and I don't think it's too much of a stretch.
It strikes me as very similar to the Soviet government, which always assured the citizenry that they were doing Socialism now as a step towards full Communism in the future. Obviously, this never happened... but is it so different for the KMT to assure the citizens that they are doing authoritarianism now as a step towards full Sun Yat-Sen democracy in the future? An exercise for the readAAR...
Also its interesting there is no Cold War, UN, or Nukes in this world. Do you think the US and Soviets could still have tensions in this environment? Maybe even an actual war, since there isn't the threat of Mutually Assured Destruction.
With no Pacific War the US never has any need for nukes, even with this AAR's conservative WWII timeline. Thus they are not demonstrated and their true power remains largely theoretical, so it is not unreasonable to think that the governments would underestimate the destructive power of nuclear weapons and M.A.D. may not come into being as a dominant ideology. Which brings up the curious question of whether or not a Cold War would then turn hot in this timeline?
However I'm afraid I must break with the consensus around the rest of this ending. No war in the Far East means the war in Europe and the Middle East will be substantially different. Just to pick a few points
I agree wholeheartedly with this analysis. El Pip may be a bit more pro-British than the historical record merits at times, but here I think he has all the ducks in a row.
Wraith has convinced me that more ships/forces would be useful for Overlord, but my point is that by late 1944, the Allies were outrunning their supplies in France, not lacking in manpower. More divisions wouldn't help unless they could quickly secure important ports, so then the question is what was the capacity of the ports the Allies had? If they could handle more shipping OTL, then supply issues go down, otherwise I don't see a dramatic change.
I think the point being underestimated here is that the PTO drew off a tremendous amount of
shipping from the ETO, which in this timeline would be wholly available to supply the ETO. If you look at the massive numbers of Liberty, T2, etc. ships being churned out from U.S. shipyards even before Pearl Harbor which were being built in response to the need for ever-more shipping capacity in both major theaters...well, if you suddenly take half of those theaters out of the accounting suddenly that massive demand for shipping becomes much easier to meet.
Given this, as El Pip suggested a broader-front landing rather than just the admittedly narrow front of Overlord becomes more feasible as well.
* So say January 1943 Sicily gets invaded, larger force than OTL (more shipping, no losses in Torch, etc). With even more naval forces around, more carriers and more ground forces the Axis can't evacuate Sicily so the follow up invasion of Italy goes even smoother than OTL.
I do quibble with this one, I'm not sure launching a campaign in January is a good idea. I admit to being unfamiliar with the weather patterns of the Mediterranean and surrounding countries, but for example Rome is at about the same latitude as my US hometown and I assure you that we see some very different weather in January than in June around here. The Med may be much calmer than the Atlantic Ocean due to being an enclosed sea but I don't think that means it is 365 days a year of calm seas and sunny skies over the beaches.
* Germany probably pulls troops from the Eastern Front to help Italy, but this is right in the middle of Stalingrad / Little Saturn. It is the worst possible time to divert forces. OTL the Allies invaded in the spring, after 3rd Kharkov when the Germans had at least a bit of breathing room (until Kursk anyway). However let us assume worst case and the forces get sent to Italy as OTL.
This might actually turn out to be a good time to divert forces if the Allies push fast enough, as Hitler might be dissuaded from the Stalingrad misadventure in the first place. Probably doesn't change the big picture on the Eastern Front, but might make the German effort on that front a bit stiffer come the 1943 campaigns.
1. There may not be an active Pacific theatre, but that doesn't mean the US and UK can just let their guard down and ignore the potential threat from Japan and China, so there may well be some draw-down of forces but I can't see the USN in particular not keeping a substantial presence in the Pacific as a deterrent.
Even if the USN maintains a combat presence, much less shipping is needed to keep fleets in port in supply, let alone if you do not need to keep the boots on the ground supplied and fed acorss a few dozen Pacific islands.
2. Also please bear in mind the nature of the US entry into the war. There is no devastating surprise attack in this timeline and no direct threat to American territories. Instead there is a German declaration of war whose only practical effect is to involve the USN and the merchant marine in the Battle of the Atlantic. Given the strong isolationist sentiment, would the US have geared up so fast and with such determination in this scenario without the impetus of Pearl Harbor? Or would this instead be seen as just another European war that is still, in the eyes of many, none of their concern?
This is a fair point. I suspect that the shipping would still be available, but perhaps there will not be as many divisions available - although conversely not so many divisions will be needed. The US Army with a similar number of divisions but only one major theater of operations could probably perform about as well as in OTL.
3. My understanding is that about 80% of the German effort historically was committed against the Soviets. Obviously a stronger and earlier Allied offensive would force Germany to commit additional forces to the west (essentially to the benefit of the Soviets) so I'll concede the war might be ended some months earlier, say some time in '44. What I can't readily see is an ending that doesn't somehow involve Germany being crushed from both sides and a divided Europe as a result.
I think the question here is whether a divided Europe ends with Germany solely under Allied control, and possibly a divided Poland or maybe independent Poland as a buffer state. Certainly you'll still see the Soviets occupying the Baltics, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. as in OTL I think.
A big unknown here is that the Soviet war machine was really not capable of launching the kind of continent-spanning, war-winning offensives like Bagration until 1944, they did launch a series of offensive after Kursk in 1943 but these were "only" in a one part of the Eastern Front, and they did not advance generally along the entire front until Bagration in '44. If the WWII timeline is accelerated by a year, the Soviets may only be capable of reaching Warsaw before the Allies end the war in Berlin (although of course changing German deployments could complicate this picture).
Oh, if only I could train an emu, I’d proudly admit it! This is why they win wars and are on our coat of arms. <peck peck> Oops, what a giveaway: can I edit that out? <scritch scratch>
I feel bad to ruin the very appropriate ending of this thread in a flood of Emu comments, which is a far better and more suitable for AARland way to end an AAR. I do not feel bad enough to not click "Post Reply", but rest assured that I do so with just a twinge of regret in my heart.
And congratulations Rusty on completing this fine work! A completed AAR is a rare feathAAR in an authAAR's cap and should be much celebrated!
