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I didn't understand the question.

Two parts

1 - can I make a second event that fires after a period of 180 days but with only say a 33% percentage of firing per offset to mimic the province being cored by the new government

2 - in EU III you can have events that make it so that a province will randomly defect to another country (usually if it's cored or a small colony near a large nation and you have bad stab)

Limith - I don't want them persistent really.
 
1) You can use either save_date or queued event for a 180 delay (BTW, you want it to be exactly 180 day right). I would suggest a queued event. This second event could have two actions, one with ai_chance = 67 and the other with ai_chance = 33 and this event would be a one_action event. So only one of the two action would be chosen (based on the ai_chance): 33% of the time if would give a core, 67% of the time it would have no effect (or add +1 dissent or belligerence for force integration for example).

2) Honestly I never tried anything like that, but if you have time and will to explain the conditions further, we can think of a solution. But I somehow doubt it is possible.
 
2) Honestly I never tried anything like that, but if you have time and will to explain the conditions further, we can think of a solution. But I somehow doubt it is possible.

Event a:
revolt which = -1

Event b:
if (prov control = REB) secedeprovince(prov) which = RAND