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I think I am definitely ordering through Direct-2-Drive, with their "Pirate Bay" add-on thrown in for pre-order (though I love having the box and a physical copy...I am so torn). If anyone sees that deal for a physical copy, please let me know. Otherwise, I think I will go with D2D.
I have seen the release as July 28 (Amazon, Kim Soares' last blog), July 31 (D2D, Paradox's official statement about the free add-on) and August 3 (GameStop). If anyone knows of an exact date I would be very interested to know as well. It is seeming like July 31 is the winner, but I am not positive, for sure.