He admits to lusting after Ashara Dayne so celibate is a bit of a stretch.
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It was his greatest regret that Rhaegar beat him at the Tourney of Harrenhal. For the realm, he believed that if he had unhorsed Rhaegar, the whole issue with Lyanna would have been avoided. On a personal level, he wanted to crown Ashara queen of love and beauty because of his crush.
He most likely got infatuated with her when he followed the Knight of the Laughing Tree so it probably wouldn't have made a difference. You're also assuming that Lyanna wasn't the instigator.
No, he's stating what Ser Barristan believed. Ser Barristan believed that if he had unhorsed Rhaegar, the whole issue would have been avoided.
Barristan probably doesn't know about the Knight of the Laughing Tree, and almost certainly doesn't have any special insight into the exact interactions between Rhaegar and Lyanna. Besides, Barristan is not exactly a reliable judge of character, or many other things.
With Aerys in his maddened state, it will take preciously little to set him off. Even if the Tourney at Harrenhal didn't happen, he'll very easily find another perceived slight to start an explosion. What I find slightly more perplexing was Rhaegar's choice to stand by his father, despite his own misgivings. Forgive me if I'm mistaken, but I'm pretty sure that the CB Robert used in canon was to depose Aerys and reclaim Lyanna, not to take the Iron Throne.
Wasn't that like 15 years before the start date we're talking about?
A person can lust after someone, have a crush on someone or even be head over heels in love with someone and still be celibate.
I think people are talking about II not I....well II burned people alive and planned to destroy kings landing.
I think we are talking about II before he went mad. His condition was worsening in the few years before the Defiance. But, the Defiance tipped him into unstable territory for the rest of his reign.
Rhaegar intended to put down the rebellion then come home and quietly remove his father from power.
He seems a pretty decent judge of character. He knew Aerys and Robert had serious issues, and he seems to have Daario pegged as well. He's just too subservient to his Kingsguard oaths to do anything about his concerns (until Hizdahr, after much soul searching).
Yeah that entire "getting squished by a warhammer" thing kind of put a damper on things.