Smack

[Solmyr]

Just thought I'd point out that my new SMACK package (Solmyr's Mods and Addons for CK) for 1.04b is available at the Uploads forum.

 

[Kliwarrior]

Hi Solmyr
in your "character_health_events.txt" you wrote

character_event = {
	id = 999
	picture = "event_death"
	trigger = {
		condition = {
			type = not
			value = {
			  type = age value = [COLOR=Red]5[/COLOR]
			  }
		}
	}

	mean_time_to_happen = {
		months = [COLOR=Red]120[/COLOR]

120 months are 10 years, it means that 50% of children will die..

200 months of MTTH ( that is 30% ) should be more apropriate

Beside this, very good work!!

ciao ciao

 

[Solmyr]

120 months are 10 years, it means that 50% of children will die..

200 months of MTTH ( that is 30% ) should be more apropriate

It's been mentioned that MTTH is actually higher than what's in the event due to processing (you can see that because even events with MTTH of 1 day, like initial education events, don't happen immediately and can take years before triggering). In my experience on average MTTH is about 50% higher than what's in the event, so in this case it's more like 15 years. Which means 30% is the actual percentage of deaths.

Anyhow, people can test this and report if children are dying too often. If so I can tweak it in future versions.

 

[Kliwarrior]

This is very funny
I take a look at the event script just because I had my duchies "kindergarden" almost depleted.

And anyway I didn't any calculus about the true probabiliy of the event (more fool me )

Actually what you are saying about mtth and the probability is (generally speacking) wrong (some maths below) but in this case you are perfectly right! and I was wrong
With your figures, (mtth=120 and trigger only until 5yo) , 70% of children will survive (exactly 70.7 % ).
Isn't this amazing ?

Some maths from a math nerd (me..)

Pdox guys implemented MTTH concept in a very good way:
They check the probability every day, about a certain events.
For examples is the MTTH is 1 day, the probability is 0.5 .
That is a simple 50%.
If the MTTH is 1 months ( = 30 days ) the probability is 0.02284 (a little more then 2% )
Anybody can check this in the F12/charevent of a given event.
Where do these figures come from?

The "daily probability" is calculated so that after MTTH, (that is after a certain number of checks ) the probability that a certain event DOESN'T happen is 50%.

It means that the probability p = ( 0.5 ) ^ (1/MTTH)

So what this lead to?
First , a certain events could never happen (as Pdox guys oftain said)
Second, that after twice the MTTH , you have the event NOT happened 25% of times
After three times the MTTH you have the event NOT happened 12.5%
Finally after 4 times MTTH you have 6.25 %

In general, given a MTTH ( that is given a probability p )
the chance that the event DOESN'T happen after T days is
= ( 1 - p ) ^ T

So for the "child dead" T = 1800 (five years) p = 0.000192522 (give by the MTTH of 3600 days, or 120 months ) and the chance of don't get the event is ( 1 - 0.000192522 ) ^ 1800 = 0.707..

That is 70 % of survivors :wacko: :wacko:

Thank you for your patience of reading so far

ciao ciao