Xenayan Demographics and Economics
Until now, the assumption has always been that the Xenaya have an economy that is broadly equivalent to 1860s Earth as part of facilitating the narrative - the Council might not have as much raw population as our empires of the day, but, it is the only empire on the Xenayan homeworld.
Let's recap some cycles in Xenayan history for a moment:
1. Prehistoric Xenaya
The prehistory of the Xenaya sees them begin as stone age hunters on a desert world. And as apex predators on a desert world, there just isn't the food to sustain large numbers of Xenaya congregated together for long, and therefore, children had to leave their parents and make their own way, leaving a loose community of Xenaya that divides across the main ranges outside the great deserts, giving rise to the "-a" tribe and the "-i" tribe.
Getting a rough estimate for global population here is challenging, as it's hard to say how much of the Homeworld's surface would be habitable for a Xenaya... Among the present day big carnivorous mammals that we have data on, Polar Bears match them most for size and therefore meat required, but the North Pole is a brutal environment to live in and that is the main reason why they need hundreds of thousands of square km each, at which point our Xenaya population is going to hit carrying capacity at perhaps as low as a few tens of thousands. Lions aren't as big, but, are a better model of Xenaya as social predator family groups, and they run down to as little as a pride or two per thousand square km, so low hundreds of thousands. The good news is, no Humans hunting them means they aren't restricted to the areas where we aren't, which is a fairly big problem for lions and polar bears.
There's also the fact that Xenaya are sophont - even in a prehistoric state they could have quite an impact as intelligence opens up not just superior cooperation over lions, but also observations of migration patterns and slash and burn agriculture to support managed prey herds, and ultimately domestication of prey.
Overall... I think between a 500,000 to 2,000,000 global population in the prehistoric period is a reasonable lower and upper bound.
2. MSI-Backed Clan B'Turna vs other clans
This indefinite stage of prehistory ends with MSI's involvement, naturally - the B'Turna clan are the ones who make contact with MSI, and they trade slaves for weapons to take more slaves, and they build an empire in the economic usage of the word, and contribute to militarising the Xenaya as they could no longer trust other Xenaya to be friendly at first contact - the need to build a population base for a military sees the B'Turna carry out the reforms discussed in passing during Life2.0.
To attempt to resist the B'Turnas sees other Xenayan groups use similar reforms, and various clans form.
3. Vaki B'Than's Alliance of the clans
Vaki B'Than introduces the first true inter-tribal cohesive decision making as part of her task of defeating the B'Turnas - she bangs heads together to get the disparate clans to deal with their enemy, her task incomplete because she had to return to the stars to assist the Lokra-Kitan during Life2.0.
4. Potestas Laronius
The ongoing prologue piece for Mandate Of Heaven sees Lartius and Juno become Warchiefs of the Xenaya, and will go on to facilitate Ruki's descent to the Homeworld as High King - they and their horde of followers depart the Homeworld partially during Mandate Of Heaven as a Mercenary Enclave, and permanently after the Rukonian era.
5. Rukonian Era
Ruki envisions a return to the days of peace, and decides to do so through a theocratic federation of Xenaya across the whole of their world. To facilitate that he at first uses fibre-optic cables and graphene-based vacuum airships running off zero-point reactors constructed using Orion Commonwealth technology, and then adapts to semaphore lines and solar-powered hydrogen airships with layered and sealed fabric envelopes that could actually be built by them. These facilitate trade networks that run explosively fast in comparison to the old B'Turna-era of runners stationed in a chain of outposts across charted routes overland, and the heartland regions that produce much higher quantities of food grow rich exporting food and water, and importing raw materials.
6. Late-Rukonian Era
Councilic Xenaya begin in the Late-Rukonian period, after his passing. Ruki leaves behind the archive and passed on peacefully, his successors secure in their heartlands, governing outlying regions from a distance. In that distance is vast desert and badlands regions that the Rukonians don't use. However, they are all that is available for the disloyal governors seeing to overthrow the Rukonian order. This drives the Councilic Xenaya towards urbanisation, towards the dream of arcologies' they can't go wide, so they have to go tall.
In order to do that they need to extract and recycle just about every scrap of biomass and water they can from the poor regions they have, leading to a heavy focus on developing new technologies - water course shaping like dams, canals or aqueducts, solar-thermal boilers to purify waste water into condensed drinking water, sand filters to remove particulates, composting of waste solids with ash, gardens filled with plants that transpire water, fishing reservoirs where primitive aquaponics can be developed, cooling drains to collect dew-water, first intensive farming of livestock are all examples.
At the same time, social changes take place - a tightly constrained theocratic psuedo-caste structure is imposed to more efficiently utilise their resources and people, and nominally equal Rites are devloped into which a Councilic Xenaya develops their role - Sana-Woru the Rite of inventors and ideas, Nori-Woru for engineering works, Tira-Toru for supplies and morale, and Zaru-Toru for warriors to fight the eventual war to capture the Rukonian heartlands.
As a result, Councilic population base grows rapidly, while Rukonian population base remains the same; many have reverted back to prehistoric lifestyles.
What happens next... Is obvious.
The Rukonians lose:
Ruki B'Uniti is relegated to myth.
The legends of Nomi and Buri B'Uniti are reshaped to suit the Councilic need to integrate existing Rukonian civilian population and bind them to the new order.
Unrepentant Rukonians are cast to the deserts and badlands - only they are systemically stopped from attempting to industrialise themselves.
7. Medieval Councillic Era
In time, things settle down and the Council consolidates it's powerbase; the technology developed in the deserts is re-applied in the prosperous heartlands to reach even higher heights, and in turn the return on that investment is pushed to settle new settlements in the harsher regions.
The Rite of Sana-Woru continues to innovate - between the myths of incredibly advanced blueskins, stories of the B'Uniti's descending from the stars and their own rise to power through technological improvement, there is a strong recognition that technological stagnation risks destruction. This pressure in wartime, in peace and safety, becomes a thirst for knowledge. The Rite of Nori-Woru continues the engineering efforts that built Xenayan society and made it strong. The Rite of Tira-Toru remains concerned with livestock and water supply, and gains subtle spheres in understanding how people work. The Rite of Zaru-Toru changes from the warriors of the rebellion into gladiators, showing valour in acts of daring and prowess.
These four major ancient deities of the Xenaya aren't the only ones; The End Of The Cycle is feared by the Council given their cycle of dominance could end some day, and adherents of the Worm-In-Waiting know what was, will be. Cults that venerate them are tolerated/encouraged as a hope of influencing their respective deities.
Then the compromises - Noma-Hama, Boru-Hama, and Tohu-Lukn. Noma-Hama is naturally twisted away from her "start a revolution with nothing but a belt, a blade and a gun" antics, and is turned into a unsubtle means of securing social cohesion. Boru-Hama's unflinching loyalty is turned to a new possessor in the Council, and Tohu-Lukn is confined to a monastic order that is always watching over the rest of society.
8. Modern Councillic Era
By the present day, it has been eight centuries since the Council overwhelmed the Rukonians with a tech base broadly equivalent to that of the Romans, and they now possess broad strokes equivalence to 1860s Europe. A key change from the Medieval era is that the Rite of Tohu-Lukn has been co-opted by The Holocron, who speaks to Rite members in dreams and visions.
The second key change is that the Rukonians have transitioned from an effectively Stateless Society into a Feudal Monarchy that answers to Rivi B'Uniti as High Queen informally. (
logistics constraints mean they can't fully support her)
It is at this point that we can start making a comparison and evaluate their capabilities:
Modern Population
As any Stellaris player knows, Pops are everything.
On Earth, the global population around 1860 was in the region of a billion Humans, but, equally we had horrific casualties between high infant mortality, warfare, plagues and culture conversions. Warfare/culture conversion happened a lot less in the Xenaya, and I think it is also reasonable that Rukonian-era advanced medical knowledge and/or priests of Sana-Woru and Tira-Toru working together would identify causes and effects that reduce infant mortality and plagues, and a fair chunk of the innovations needed for sustainable settlements in the desert has implications towards working out those factors anyway. In that case, they could potentially sustain a vastly higher population growth than we did.
But, stable long term population growth is not a reasonable prospect until the Medieval Councilic era.
Population growth rate of Humans over the equivalent period ranged from 0.3% per annum to 0.6% per annum, and the initial population was much higher. Our Xenaya have a much lower initial population, but much better growth rates once they get going. A billion is high, but it is a plausible upper bound, around 1% per annum.
A population equivalent to that of 1860s Europe - ~300 million Humans - seems a good thumb in air estimate for the lower population bound.
Economic Output
In terms of economic output, the Xenaya are effectively Human intelligence and horse to gorilla strength at a cost of several times as much food, and all of it in meat at that. They cost substantially more to run, but, they can do more.
Industrially, Human and Xenaya differ in power - Human society used coal, animal and water power, while Xenaya make use of solar-thermal systems, limiting work to daylight hours, although their strength does broadly compensate. Neither has yet begun using electricity at scale beyond science experiments.
Both have global trade access with international freight vehicles of both species offering up to 10kt cargo carried, and the Xenaya have the advantage of a centralised one world government, which means that they can apply their capability more efficiently than Humanity could in period.
In terms of scientific capability, the Xenaya have the critical advantage that they have a united scientific community within the Rite of Sana-Woru, and a single language, which massively speeds up dissemination of knowledge.
I think that the factors will work out to have the Xenaya be better overall, but to make the numbers easier I'll assume a Xenayan works out as economically productive as a Human.
Gross Domestic Product
Using the billion Xenaya upper bound and Global GDP for Earth in 1860 as a proxy, gives nearly 1 trillion 1990 US international dollars. If we allow an excess for the Xenaya, then we might say a trillion for rounding.
If we compare this to US GDP in 1966 - peak year for US spending on NASA at 4.3% - at 3.1 trillion 1990 international dollars we see the Xenaya can afford a space program to match NASA if they are willing to spend three times more than the US was as a proportion of their economy.
Question is, can they?
Pre-Space Program Xenaya Spending
The existing expenditure that the space program would have to take funding from is allocated across three categories of spending - maintaining the existing apparatus of state, expansion of the state on existing capability, and research and development of new capability. By working out the first two, whatever remains is the R&D budget, and that is what is the accepted maximum available to the space program.
We can begin by comparing one Human to one Xenaya.
Type of Spend | Typical Human Estimate | Modified Estimate for Xenaya |
| Food Consumption | 1500-2500 calories/day, of mixed sources | Between 3x to 10x Human, depending on activity level. As obligate carnivores, livestock feeding requirements cause a far greater loss of energy up the food chain |
| Water Consumption | Hundreds of litres a day quoted by water companies for direct usage, and more in water usage not easily divided per individual, although Humanity has an extremely lax attitude to water usage relative to the Xenaya | Being a desert species, reducing water usage is critical at the biological level, with the most extreme cases on Earth's wildlife getting to the point where food intake alone is sufficient; Xenaya are unlikely to match that, but half Human usage is reasonable by inferrence from comparing temperate biome mammals to desert biome mammals. Consumption of water is minimal through strong incentives not to waste water. |
| Housing | A typical Human dwelling in comfortable conditions is in the region of 50m2 to 200m2, heavily impacted by urbanisation and space | Taller buildings are a reasonable assumption, but otherwise fairly consistent is what they have been written as through Life2.0. |
| Transportation | We build MW output engines for fun, with transport treated very individualistically - peak power demand at an individual level is in transport, with normal usage exceeding 10kWh per day comfortably. | Walking/sprinting for local journeys, Cloud Striders for longer distance. |
| Education | 4-16 is a broadly accepted range across developed world, some countries having longer. Generally operated on the principle that education is treated as a reminder or as topping up in adulthood. | As Xenaya physically mature faster education is not as easily confined to childhood through young-adulthood, meaning fitting in education around the requirements of adult life is essential. That would add a great deal of complications, but could produce a culture that treats education as a lifelong journey. |
| Healthcare | Models range from free at point of use paid for by general taxation through to no state healthcare. No sign of consensus yet. | Xenaya have had a complicated relationship with healthcare historically - an injured apex predator is pretty much going to be an ex-apex predator soon enough. The first true assessment of Xenayan healthcare needs is addressed in Life2.0 for Unity's Xenaya in a beyond 21st century technological context, and it is questionable how much would be retained from then through Rukonian and Councillic eras. It might be another factor that contributed to the success of the Council, in which case a state-directed model is likely to be adopted. |
| Social Welfare | Humans have had a love-hate relationship with state welfare spending since the Romans. Doesn't stop it being one of the biggest areas for expenditure. | See above, change relevant terms. |
| Military/Policing | Historically, however much was needed to win any of the tens of thousands of wars we've fought with each other over the same lump of rock. | Military spending is largely irrelevant for the Xenaya at this time, hence why this section mixes military and police spending. |
| Energy Resources | Humanity has extremely strong dependance on hydrocarbon fuels, which some are hoping to change. | Solar-thermal concentrated power dominates, although electricity is yet to be used at scale - there's a very real chance Xenaya will make ion engine spacecraft before electric motor cars. |
Overall, this is broadly consistent with a modern European democratic welfare state running on a centralised top-down economic model; the major deviation is food supply. As managed food supply is as reasonable a development as managed water supply, a similar series of innovations for intensive livestock farming would help this substantially.
It had already been decided ahead of Stars Of Wonder that the Xenaya of the Homeworld would not get the Undying Food Things that The Holocron develops for Unity's Xenaya, as they would make the task too easy - a similar prey animal domesticated for consumption would have to be substituted. Among Earth's suitable fauna, meals might be desert Hares, Sandgrouse, monitor lizards, Ibex, camels or even elephant; it isn't like any Earth animal lesser than some dinosaurs could fend off a hungry Xenaya. The decision comes down to what grows the most meat for the least energy, feed and water, really.
An interesting insight comes from evaluating what nascent prehistoric Xenaya would do to other predators. While Earth - after thousands of years of Human activity - still supports ~30 million tons of wildlife, a desert world is going to have a very hard time matching that.. It could easily be a tenth or worse. This is a problem when a population of more than a hundred thousand Xenaya eats their way through more than a million tons of wildlife, which represents a significant chunk of total wild biomass - perhaps as much as half the wild biomass globally. We've already discussed the impact on prey species, but devouring other predators is a project that early prehistoric Xenaya undertake very early as part of ensuring their food supply.
This allows us to put a metric onto just how much bigger the population of Councilic Xenaya could have been over Rukonian Xenaya; Councilic intensive farming and recycling practices could literally enable order of magnitude more people to be sustained.
To sustain a population of a billion Xenaya requires biomass equivalent to our biomass demands at more than 8 billion Humans.
And well, us Humans - we've tried cooking just about everything on Earth, settled on our favourite bites, driven away any threats and made a few number of our competitors extinct.
The Xenaya?
If it isn't Xenaya, then it's someone's future meal.
This has really neat implications for the origin of Xenayan religion; Tira-Toru and Zaru-Toru are linked because together they are the pastoral requirements of the Xenaya - the blending of the needs for the nuture of prey and brutal subjugation of rival predators. Sana-Woru and Nori-Woru also fit in as two aspects of the need to take charge of the world around them and both discover and develop it. And lastly, Ziru-Veka and Wava-Wibi form the final pair of deities as the fear of consuming themselves to their own extinction, and the need to keep the cycle of life to death to life continuing.
Xenayan Economic Activity
From all of this, we see how Xenayan economy functions - put simply, Councilic era Xenaya are a kind of biological maximisation engine that aims to grow the biosphere to support an ever increasing amount of Xenaya.
Their industrial capability exists for the same purpose. Foki's supersonic trebuchet from Mandate Of Heaven can be repurposed into a deep aquifer extraction tool by using it to dig and then bucket water out when it hits the water table, for example. (
and could be repeated elsewhere)
Global freight supports haulage of resources needed to support the development of new settlements - Cloud Striders have been worked through up to 10kt cargo capacity, which supports flying anything from anywhere to anywhere.
Education is handled by each Rite, with most Xenaya training in roles to support ecosystem management and expansion within their Rites area.
Their research is targeted at development of technologies to further support biosphere maintenance and expansion. A space program focusing on establishing new settlements is not new, but the logical extension.
Implications For The Space Program
Space settlement for us represents a completely new environment and way to interact with that environment.
For the Xenaya, space adds one more constraint - vacuum. They are already far more adapted to the realities of space settlements, especially early space settlements, than we are, with the entire population intimately familiar with the requirements needed to run closed cycle orbital stations and moon bases.
In my opinion, working through this post has affirmed that the Xenaya can afford the space program, but more than that, is the right step for their society as a whole. They have taken complete dominance over their Homeworld, pushing what began as a desert world into what is really a strange kind of garden world, and turned the traditional bottom-up model of predator prey relations into a new kind of top-down whole ecosystem directed across the entire system - something without analogue on Earth.
Puts an interesting spin on per aspera, ad astra, for sure.
