Looks like they wait for full supplies and oil before going off on a mission, but I have another theory. It seems like they keep their mission going until they go past a certain threshold, without regard for how big the sea zone they are entering is. So, if they were say 5% above return level, they decide to continue to another huge sea zone. Problem is, once they get there they are now suddenly 10% below threshold, and don't have enough oil to get back. And of course, if they happen to get into one of those absurdly long battles (assuming they don't die) all their fuel gets sucked up and they make it halfway home before running out. Seems odd to me that the game wouldn't look at how long its going to take to get to a particular sea zone and how much oil will be burned before deciding to go. Perhaps they make the decision to go based upon the distance they have to travel back from their current sea zone, and not the return distance after they get to the next one.