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Chapter 281: November 1950
Chapter 281: November 1950
Korean War: ‘Hawks v Ostriches’

Reinforcements and replacements arrived for both sides at the start of the month. For the LN Coalition forces, this was considered their last chance to stabilise the situation as the Pusan Perimeter was constricted by three North Korean corps.

The US administration of President Harry Truman had considered and discarded the use of atomic weapons to support the failing LN position. It now considered a plea from General Douglas Macarthur, the LN Supreme Commander in Korea, for direct US Army support and an amphibious invasion force to outflank the enemy – perhaps by landing at Inchon and driving on Seoul, to force the Communists to split their forces and thus relieve the pressure on Pusan.

qjaNMu.jpg

US President Harry Truman presides over a meeting of the National Security Council on 1 November 1950 to consider options for reinforcing the war effort in Korea.

On one end of the internal debate were the ‘Hawks’ who advocated the immediate assignment of two US marine divisions to conduct the initial landing at Inchon. At the other end were the those who considered the war was lost and that no further troops should be committed. This faction was named the ‘Ostriches’ by their opponents, accused of sticking their heads in the sand. Some argued for an intermediate approach, with no new risky landing, but with one to two marine divisions to be prepared for reinforcement.

  1. ‘All In’: 01-40%. Two US divisions immediately provided with the amphibious support needed to land both behind enemy lines.
  2. ‘Enhanced Support’: 41-70%. One US division landed in Pusan immediately, with another prepared for reinforcement at the start of December.
  3. ‘Token Effort’: One US division landed in Pusan immediately.
  4. ‘Cut Bait’: 91-100%. No additional support.
Truman ended up deciding that, based on available advice, the two-division amphibious landing plan was too great a risk with the Perimeter so far distant from the proposed landing point. The same could be said of the next logical land point at Mokp’o in the south-west, which was also garrisoned by the PLA volunteer division. And getting two divisions ready to join and invade at such short notice was deemed impractical anyway.

But neither was he ready to write off the fight in Korea. So the decision was taken to provide enhanced support (Option 2), with the most easily available regular army division deployed first. It was hoped the additional US division, along with one division each of LN and Japanese replacements, would be enough to stabilise the front, with another new division to be provided in December. If they could hold until the end of the year, improved training, equipment and experience was expected to improve the fighting power of the LN troops in 1951.

ONEoRe.jpg

Troops from the recently arrived US 25th Infantry Division on the dock at Pusan, 2 November 1950. They would be deployed to secure Pusan itself, relieving other Coalition troops to reinforce the line further to the north.

The reinforcements and replacement for both sides are marked in green below. The Coalition revived one new US division, one LN and Japanese replacement. The North received one new division; South Korea received none, as the loss of Mokp’o saw its capacity fall below that needed to provide replacements for its many previously destroyed divisions. [An LN Coalition reorganisation on the ground was also permitted before the next DPRK impulse.]

bgeDN8.jpg

LN Coalition deployments in the Pusan Perimeter after the landing of the US 25th Div in early November 1950.

The Japanese would be principally responsible for holding Ulsan to the north. Pusan, sitting behind a river line and with the benefit of urban terrain, was considered ‘worth the risk’, as it could only be attacked from the west on a narrow front. The hills of Taegu were considered to be undefendable, subject as they were to attack from five directions by the entirety of the Communists’ forces and was abandoned.

The key effort was made to ensure the hills of Kyongju, between Ulsan and Pusan, were held. In extremis, the previous division on the ground between Japanese and LN forces was waived, given the compressed space available for the defence and the need for the fine balance of strengths with the limited forces available. If Kyongju fell, the Coalition armies would be split in two and Pusan could not then be realistically held. It was also hoped that by forcing the DPRK to fling itself against strong defences that they might suffer enough casualties to weaken their offensive power enough to see the LN through until the end of the year.

---xxx---

Korean War: First Pusan Offensive, 2-8 November

The North Koreans consolidated their army into three full corps, with one closing up in the centre to occupy Taegu while the other two would launch probing attacks against both Ulsan and Pusan in the hope of ‘shaking something loose’ in the meantime. They reasoned that they could afford a few losses but one bad defeat for the LN would spell the end of their fragile position.

1Z2mQj.jpg

The attack on Ulsan was soon called off, with neither side forced to either yield ground or losing significant casualties. For the attack on Pusan, air support [-1 die roll] was added to the natural river defence [1/2 strength attack] and urban terrain [another -1 die roll: then a 1 was rolled anyway]. The attack was a setback for the DPRK, with one division destroyed and the rest forced back from their positions in Masan.

oDiZ1V.jpg

DPRK troops assaulting Ulsan, 2 November 1950. The attack would not be pressed after little initial progress was made.

yCYQZM.jpg

Troops of the US 25th Division hung on grimly to the west of Pusan, administering a heavy defeat to the attacking North Koreans by 6 November 1950.

The LN decided against occupying Masan but was able to keep just a light garrison on Pusan itself, as it would take another week for the North to reoccupy Masan. Instead they ensured Kyongju and Ulsan were more heavily defended, no Taegu was in DPRK hands.

9tmxZZ.jpg

This initial period had been weathered well enough for the LN and hopes were raised that they could indeed hold out until the end of the year.

---xxx---

Kashmir

On 27 October the LN-sponsored Jammu & Kashmir Conference had proposed a resolution to help resolve the sore point between the two countries. If approved, a constituent assembly would be elected in an LN-supervised vote to determine the final disposition of the area.

Die roll:
  • 1-4, proposal approved;
  • 5-7, proposal rejected out of hand;
  • 8-9, decision deferred for further consideration for six months;
  • 10, proposal rejected and India pre-emptively mobilises and increases its garrison in Kashmir.
Pakistani reaction:

If a. Pakistan-India relations improve to a new high, both sides prepare for a democratic campaign.

If b. Relations sour; 1-4 no other response; 5-7 Pakistani rhetoric heats up, later chance of escalation; 8-9 Pakistan mobilises, heightened risk of war in coming months, insurgent groups start to form in Muslim-majority areas of Jammu-Kashmir; 10 Pakistan mobilises and privately commits to attack as soon as they are ready.

If c. Relations more tense but not too badly damaged; 1-7 no other response; 8-9 Pakistani rhetoric heats up, later chance of escalation; 10 Pakistan mobilises, heightened risk of war in coming months, insurgent groups start to form to exert limited pressure on India in Jammu-Kashmir.

If d. 1 Pakistan backs down, government crisis; 2-7 Pakistan mobilises defensively and seeks LN intervention; 8-10 Pakistan mobilises Pakistan mobilises and threatens war, seeks LN sanctions against India.

On 5 November, the Indian Cabinet came firmly down on the side of a peaceful resolution [die roll 1], approving the LN-brokered proposal and agreeing to an independent democratic process to decide the future of the contested territory. Given their position, Pakistan could do no other than agree, with relations between both countries improving. Nonetheless, tensions and a degree of suspicion over Kashmir would continue, with the Constituent Assembly elections planned for the late spring of 1951.

QFQ4GA.jpg

Jinnah (left) and Nehru were both pleased that conflict had been averted and a peaceful way ahead made possible – if not certain – after agreeing to the LN proposal for Kashmir in November 1950.

---xxx---

Korean War: Re-consolidation, 9-16 November

After its botched attack on Pusan, the DPRK decided to refrain from more half-baked attacks and instead drew the ‘spare’ division that had been garrisoning Seoul (following Soviet intelligence warnings of a possible US amphibious invasion) to re-establish a full corps in Masan, which was reoccupied by 13 November.

tBMXT9.jpg

The LN responded by readjusting their own lines, adding a Japanese division to the Pusan garrison while ensuring the odds in Kyongju would be no better than 1-1 [ie 50 v 26] if the Communists decided to launch their entire army in a single attack on it, meaning the US 25th Div was shifted to that crucial point in the line. But no matter how the Coalition arranged themselves, they would have to take some risks.

TKqJ3w.jpg


---xxx---

Other Events, 9-15 November

As the Chinese invasion of Tibet continued, on 11 November representatives of the government of Tibet sought intervention by the League of Nations to obtain the withdrawal of Chinese occupying troops from the eastern section of their nation. However, no meaningful support would be forthcoming. There was no appetite to either oppose Chiang nor to divert focus from the desperate situation in Korea.

In Romania, location filming began on the new movie starring Audie Murphy, John Wayne and Perse Fotheringay-Phipps, “The Streets of Timisoara”. The film was jointly funded by MGM and a S.I.T.H. front company, with Turkish ‘production advisers’ on hand to ensure that the ‘right messages’ were being sent.

wiXtjV.jpg

Audie Murphy (left) and John Wayne during location filming of “The Streets of Timisoara”, November 1950.

pipW6H.jpg

Perse relaxes (as much as she ever can) on the film set in a break between her scenes.

---xxx---

Korean War: Crescendo, 16-22 November

The Second Pusan Offensive began on 16 November 1950. The DPRK decided to leave the heavily defended Kyongju alone, taking their chances instead with a main attack against the Japanese in Ulsan in the north at odds of 2-1. A secondary attack on Pusan was expected to be repulsed again but was attempted again as a ‘speculator’. US air support was provided to Ulsan, the more vulnerable of the two positions.

MYs0no.jpg

The results were a disaster for the LN Coalition [9s rolled for both], with the Japanese and South Korean troops in both locations forced out of their defences. Had the air power been switched to Pusan, it would have merely resulted in an exchange of casualties on both sides but still a defeat for the Coalition.

1zu5bt.jpg

DPRK troops press forward in the Second Pusan Offensive, starting on 17 November 1950. After just two days of fighting, the Coalition defence had melted away in both Ulsan and more crucially the last remaining LN port in Pusan.

Pzq3b2.jpg

Refugees flee north from Pusan as the Communist advance rolls into Pusan.

This meant that for the LN’s last roll of the dice, just five divisions would have the residual supplies for a full-on counter attack from Kyongju, with another four left out of supply behind the front line. If the LN attack on Pusan failed to recapture the port, the whole force would be out of supply within a week [half strength, maximum of five divisions counting to combat]. A full defeat would be almost inevitable.

HQ7dV5.jpg

With air support having already been committed that week to the defence of Ulsan, it was not available to support the counter-attack. And again, it would not have been enough to change the result. With odds of no more than 1-1 available, the US 25th Division had been held back to secure Kyongju in case of failure. Which is exactly what transpired, with the participating Japanese division destroyed as the attack on Pusan was easily defeated.

9cDkld.jpg

LN troops retreat back to Kyongju after the defeat of their counter-attack on Pusan, 20 November 1950.

jdugC0.jpg

DPRK troops celebrate their decisive victory on the northern approaches to Pusan, 21 November 1950.

There was now nothing left to the LN and Japan but to come to terms in order to save their remaining forces trapped in Kyongju from destruction.

While frantic negotiations went on in the LNSC, with the USSR sponsoring the Communist North’s interests, at Stalin’s insistence a ceasefire was agreed to by the DPRK after the failure of the Pusan counter-attack on 21 November.

OtU0wz.jpg

DPRK and LN officers sign the interim ceasefire agreement in Pusan, 21 November 1950.

As General Macarthur was compelled to negotiate terms on the battlefield in Korea, armistice arrangements were hastily concluded in Geneva. All remaining US, LN and Japanese troops in Korea would be permitted to retain their arms and be repatriated through Pusan. In return, Stalin secured the recognition of the DPRK as the sole government of Korea and his own reputation as the statesman who had brokered peace in Korea without any direct military involvement in the conflict.

Wo3xer.jpg

NB: old style Romanised spelling of Mao's name used deliberately here for 'period' reporting.

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North Korean soldiers around Pusan celebrate their final victory in what they would eventually term the Great Patriotic War of Unification, 22 November 1950.

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US and LN representatives sign the formal articles of surrender on behalf of the Coalition in Pusan, 22 November 1950.

hwS251.jpg

Kim Il Sung signs his copy of the formal Armistice to end the Korean War in Pyongyang, 22 November 1950.

---xxx---

Other Event: 17-30 November

On 17 November the fifteen year old Tenzin Gyatso was enthroned as the 14th Dalai Lama, becoming both the chief of state of the semi-independent kingdom, and the spiritual leader of adherents of Tibetan Buddhism worldwide.

iiYaPW.jpg

The 14th Dalai Lama enthroned, 17 November 1950, during a time of war for Tibet.

The Japanese Diet [the French Assembly in OTL] voted on 23 November to approve plans to transfer the administration of all lands in Southern Vietnam to the Hanoi-based puppet government by the end of the year. They would also gradually let the Imperial Vietnamese Army (IVA) take over the war effort against the Viet Minh. This was seen as the beginning of Japan’s intended slow withdrawal from Vietnam.

T51qZM.jpg

A soldier of the Japanese-sponsored Imperial Vietnamese Army, November 1950. The burden of fighting would fall increasingly on these troops as the Japanese sought to extricate themselves from another debilitating conflict, just as the situation in Korea was going from bad to worse for them.
 
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In return, Stalin secured the recognition of the DPRK as the sole government of Korea and his own reputation as the statesman who had brokered peace in Korea without any direct military involvement in the conflict

An astonisngly risky roll of the dice, that nonetheless ended up going his way. I suspect the Soviets have learnt a worrying lesson that the West cannot be trusted alone with the LN - they HAVE to be present at all times to secure their interests.

But otherwise, its gone very well for rhe comintern. Especially Korea was a war the US could, with difficulty, have won.

They will have no such luck in Vietnam, and yet the gauntlet and domino effect is in place now. They'll have to try something extreme, which will make the US look awful and weak on the international stage, whilst give the Vietnamese an overwhelming threat to unify against.

If its embarising currently for the US, its much worse for the Japanese. They've been booted out of their own colony, and they can't even blame a great power for doing it - the Koreans did it mostly by themsecles. Huge prestige hit, loss of economic partner, high casualties for nothing and another thing for the people to lay at the government and mikitary's feet.

It's not going to ve easy for a united Korea either. They're surrounded by potential enemies, at least until south east Asia gets full indepednance and could conceivably start ties with them. Totally dependent on Moscow for security and money.
 
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I'm really, REALLY hoping someone other than the OTL goons get the Soviet Union after Stalin. The people who did the post war treaties would be in a good position to do so, given how well their measures have gone so far.
 
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This initial period had been weathered well enough for the LN and hopes were raised that they could indeed hold out until the end of the year.
dire but still holding on

On 5 November, the Indian Cabinet came firmly down on the side of a peaceful resolution [die roll 1], approving the LN-brokered proposal and agreeing to an independent democratic process to decide the future of the contested territory. Given their position, Pakistan could do no other than agree, with relations between both countries improving.
happy that this is going better than our timeline

As the Chinese invasion of Tibet continued, on 11 November representatives of the government of Tibet sought intervention by the League of Nations to obtain the withdrawal of Chinese occupying troops from the eastern section of their nation. However, no meaningful support would be forthcoming. There was no appetite to either oppose Chiang nor to divert focus from the desperate situation in Korea.
worrying

[9s rolled for both]
:eek:

North Korean soldiers around Pusan celebrate their final victory in what they would eventually term the Great Patriotic War of Unification, 22 November 1950.
:eek:
 
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So the decision was taken to provide enhanced support, with the most easily available regular army division deployed first. It was hoped the additional US division, along with one division each of LN and Japanese replacements, would be enough to stabilise the front, with another new division to be provided in December. If they could hold until the end of the year, improved training, equipment and experience was expected to improve the fighting power of the LN troops in 1951.

The more cautious approach of reinforcing the existing position appeared to be a sound enough strategy. The riskier option of landing the two divisions behind communist lines would probably have ended up putting them in serious jeopardy - BUT that distraction would surely have bought the LN valuable time to strengthen their forces in the Pusan pocket and possibly saved them!

The attack on Ulsan was soon called off, with neither side forced to either yield ground or losing significant casualties. The attack was a setback for the DPRK, with one division destroyed and the rest forced back from their positions in Masan.

For a moment here it looked like the LN might have weathered the storm...

The results were a disaster for the LN Coalition, with the Japanese and South Korean troops in both locations forced out of their defences.

There was now nothing left to the LN and Japan but to come to terms in order to save their remaining forces trapped in Kyongju from destruction.

Ooops... :eek:

On the positive side at least Korea will be spared the decades-long stand-off along the ceasefire line and that one factor alone will probably result in the DPRK following a different (and better) trajectory compared to OTL.

All remaining US, LN and Japanese troops in Korea would be permitted to retain their arms and be repatriated through Pusan. In return, Stalin secured the recognition of the DPRK as the sole government of Korea and his own reputation as the statesman who had brokered peace in Korea without any direct military involvement in the conflict.

A very good outcome indeed for Stalin, I think. Not only has he got what he wanted in Korea, but he has probably earned some favour with the US and the LN by helping secure the safe evacuation of their troops. :D

On 5 November, the Indian Cabinet came firmly down on the side of a peaceful resolution, approving the LN-brokered proposal and agreeing to an independent democratic process to decide the future of the contested territory. Given their position, Pakistan could do no other than agree, with relations between both countries improving.

The constructive diplomatic engagement over Kashmir continues to surprise. :)
 
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This is a dreadful outcome for Japan and China. I'm surprised the US didn't go full anti-communist invasion to save 'democracy' in Korea. China is now pretty much surrounded by communist States. This means that they can probably expect communist insurgencies along most of their borders. It's a delicate situation to day the least. I expect Mao to try and make a serious comeback once Korea and Vietnam hev been fully secured.
 
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This is a dreadful outcome for Japan and China. I'm surprised the US didn't go full anti-communist invasion to save 'democracy' in Korea. China is now pretty much surrounded by communist States. This means that they can probably expect communist insurgencies along most of their borders. It's a delicate situation to day the least. I expect Mao to try and make a serious comeback once Korea and Vietnam hev been fully secured.
I'm amazed that Chang didn't follow OTL Mao's example and invade the rear of the DPRK. Granted, that would probably have provoked a USSR response which absolutely would have cascaded into another global war, but still.
 
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This is a dreadful outcome for Japan and China. I'm surprised the US didn't go full anti-communist invasion to save 'democracy' in Korea. China is now pretty much surrounded by communist States. This means that they can probably expect communist insurgencies along most of their borders. It's a delicate situation to day the least. I expect Mao to try and make a serious comeback once Korea and Vietnam hev been fully secured.
I'm amazed that Chang didn't follow OTL Mao's example and invade the rear of the DPRK. Granted, that would probably have provoked a USSR response which absolutely would have cascaded into another global war, but still.

A quick response on the situation with China: it’s been a while since I’ve put a more general map up, but China is in a somewhat better position than that.

pnwN3Atzj


Basically it is being insulated by Japan and other neutral buffer states from pretty much any of that for now, except Japanese controlled Vietnam. It was Japan’s decision to invade in the north of Korea from Manchukuo, but that would have almost certainly triggered a reactive response from the Soviets, with whom they (or their puppets) share a huge border.

That said, once they’ve reabsorbed Tibet, the KMT will have to reassess what they do next with regard to Japan and their relationship with the Communist bloc in general.
 
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A quick note to thank those still reading for taking this old story beyond the 500k view mark! :) I realise there must be a lot out there who simply read without comment and I am very thankful and appreciative that you have stuck with it. Salut! And vur ha!
 
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A quick note to thank those still reading for taking this old story beyond the 500k view mark! :) I realise there must be a lot out there who simply read without comment and I am very thankful and appreciative that you have stuck with it. Salut! And vur ha!
Vur Ha!
 
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Comment Feedback and Next Steps for the Talking Turkey AAR
Here is the remaining comment feedback from the last chapter. With the Korean War now over and 1950 completed, it seemed a good time to review where I'd go with this AAR now that it's a little over six years since the end of the actual game part of the AAR ... see at the end of this post what I've decided to do. ;)

An astonisngly risky roll of the dice, that nonetheless ended up going his way. I suspect the Soviets have learnt a worrying lesson that the West cannot be trusted alone with the LN - they HAVE to be present at all times to secure their interests.

But otherwise, its gone very well for rhe comintern. Especially Korea was a war the US could, with difficulty, have won.

They will have no such luck in Vietnam, and yet the gauntlet and domino effect is in place now. They'll have to try something extreme, which will make the US look awful and weak on the international stage, whilst give the Vietnamese an overwhelming threat to unify against.

If its embarising currently for the US, its much worse for the Japanese. They've been booted out of their own colony, and they can't even blame a great power for doing it - the Koreans did it mostly by themsecles. Huge prestige hit, loss of economic partner, high casualties for nothing and another thing for the people to lay at the government and mikitary's feet.

It's not going to ve easy for a united Korea either. They're surrounded by potential enemies, at least until south east Asia gets full indepednance and could conceivably start ties with them. Totally dependent on Moscow for security and money.
Yes, this had left the Comintern in a strengthened position in Asia. Vietnam remains in the balance - at this point it's a bit before everything really started going belly-up for the French in OTL. How it works out in the ATL is a separate matter ... and a path that will be a little clearer after you see what comes next. A nasty result for 1. Japan, 2. the US and the West more generally and 3. the bulk of the LN. Korea is largely isolated (more than in OTL and Manchuria is still strongly held in Japanese & puppet hands), but they have the narrow lifeline to the USSR at least.
VietNam and Korea to the red menace! Will China be next? How is Stalin's health? Thanks
Not Vietnam yet. More fighting there before it can be put in the Red column. China not under too much direct threat yet. Stalin is getting old an his OTL death time (1953) can be taken as a broad indication of his ATL prospects.
I'm really, REALLY hoping someone other than the OTL goons get the Soviet Union after Stalin. The people who did the post war treaties would be in a good position to do so, given how well their measures have gone so far.
What happens there may lie a few years ahead. What the Soviets + Comintern may then get up to and how that is determined is the subject of the 'what's next' announcement below.
dire but still holding on


happy that this is going better than our timeline


worrying


:eek:


:eek:
Early hopes of survival in Korea turned to ashes by the end of the year. :( At least India-Pakistan has not yet descended into the messy bloodletting of OTL.
A very good outcome indeed for Stalin, I think. Not only has he got what he wanted in Korea, but he has probably earned some favour with the US and the LN by helping secure the safe evacuation of their troops. :D
Yes, the Comintern will be happy with that - and the Soviet huff in the LNSC ended up working to their favour after all: the rest of the Council failing without the USSR having to put anything on the line - militarily or diplomatically - themselves. Might this embolden them in the future (if there is one for the AAR)? Time will tell :D
This is a dreadful outcome for Japan and China. I'm surprised the US didn't go full anti-communist invasion to save 'democracy' in Korea. China is now pretty much surrounded by communist States. This means that they can probably expect communist insurgencies along most of their borders. It's a delicate situation to day the least. I expect Mao to try and make a serious comeback once Korea and Vietnam hev been fully secured.
Bad for Japan, not quite so bad for China. If anything, it gives them a batter bargaining position vis Japan and the remaining occupied territories. Mao is pretty much out of the picture for now, but who knows: with Soviet help he might yet have a Long March comeback in him! ;)
I'm amazed that Chang didn't follow OTL Mao's example and invade the rear of the DPRK. Granted, that would probably have provoked a USSR response which absolutely would have cascaded into another global war, but still.
Per the map I reposted above, China never had that option: it would have been Japan via forces stationed in Manchukuo, but that would have been very dangerous as it would have likely triggered a Soviet reaction: not just intervention in Korea, but along that long shared border via Mengukuo and Manchukuo, where the narrative was the Soviets had been keeping up diversionary border probes, skirmished and feint mobilisations etc to discourage such an intervention.
Thanks! I milestone that has since been exceeded by at least 7k views! o_O

Next Steps

So, one option was to call it quits as at the end of 1950 and the Korean War. Another, to just keep going with the narrative extrapolation past 1950, perhaps up to Stalin's death or some other historically parallel bookmark. But after some reflection (and the falling over of my HOI3 mod some time back in a crash I haven't had the mental energy to try to untangle yet) I have decided on a third path.

I hope readers old and new will be somewhat excited to hear that the old dog (the AAR I mean :D) is not ready to die yet! I have been working on a save game edit and small mod to extend the end date of the game to 1966, bring the map up to where it should be after the Geneva Conference settlement of November 1944, with a few little cosmetic touches and then revised objectives for the factions.

I will then play the game through as Turkey from where it finished in October 1944 and bring it through to 31 December 1950, if necessary intervening to guide things to the same outcome point we are in the current narrative. From there, the game and AAR will resume from the end of the Korean War! I will be playing it as a 'guided game' from there - so rather than coming up with complex new event chains (and all the work that entails) etc, I'll manipulate what happens to make things work out as I see fit.

In the broad, stopping anything the game decides to do that doesn't make sense or doesn't fit the story line I'm after, perhaps deciding some major things via the same % dice rolls and mini event chains I've been using in the post-war narrative and then editing the save games to comply. Maybe tagging across periodically to the other major LNSC P5 powers to keep their nuclear programs on track in the 1944-50 period, and so on. But otherwise, letting the AI do its worst.

When it's ready to go, I'll provide more detailed info on what the save edit and mini mod to support it will do. I won't do detailed chapters on the 1944-50 period (taking what's already been written as canon for the story), but highlighting any major technological or force developments for Turkey/UGNR along the way. Then, when it's ready to restart for 1 January 1951, it's back to the old style play and publish routine. Except with a format perhaps a little closer to the Poles Apart format for those familiar with it.

A quick teaser/spoiler though: the period from now to then will constitute a Path to Great War Three, which will be coming at some point after the resumption! I hope you will stick with the fun as I see if I can rack up a few more views for TT yet! :)
 
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Will you provide the link to the new AAR or will it be more Talking Turkey? Thanks
It will be more/continued TT, on this thread, though I will be putting up an alert post in the HOI3 announcements thread to advertise its restart when it’s ready to go. New readers would have the choice of either reading the back story or starting anew from that point.
 
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Next Steps

So, one option was to call it quits as at the end of 1950 and the Korean War. Another, to just keep going with the narrative extrapolation past 1950, perhaps up to Stalin's death or some other historically parallel bookmark. But after some reflection (and the falling over of my HOI3 mod some time back in a crash I haven't had the mental energy to try to untangle yet) I have decided on a third path.

I hope readers old and new will be somewhat excited to hear that the old dog (the AAR I mean :D) is not ready to die yet! I have been working on a save game edit and small mod to extend the end date of the game to 1966, bring the map up to where it should be after the Geneva Conference settlement of November 1944, with a few little cosmetic touches and then revised objectives for the factions.

I will then play the game through as Turkey from where it finished in October 1944 and bring it through to 31 December 1950, if necessary intervening to guide things to the same outcome point we are in the current narrative. From there, the game and AAR will resume from the end of the Korean War! I will be playing it as a 'guided game' from there - so rather than coming up with complex new event chains (and all the work that entails) etc, I'll manipulate what happens to make things work out as I see fit.

In the broad, stopping anything the game decides to do that doesn't make sense or doesn't fit the story line I'm after, perhaps deciding some major things via the same % dice rolls and mini event chains I've been using in the post-war narrative and then editing the save games to comply. Maybe tagging across periodically to the other major LNSC P5 powers to keep their nuclear programs on track in the 1944-50 period, and so on. But otherwise, letting the AI do its worst.

When it's ready to go, I'll provide more detailed info on what the save edit and mini mod to support it will do. I won't do detailed chapters on the 1944-50 period (taking what's already been written as canon for the story), but highlighting any major technological or force developments for Turkey/UGNR along the way. Then, when it's ready to restart for 1 January 1951, it's back to the old style play and publish routine. Except with a format perhaps a little closer to the Poles Apart format for those familiar with it.

A quick teaser/spoiler though: the period from now to then will constitute a Path to Great War Three, which will be coming at some point after the resumption! I hope you will stick with the fun as I see if I can rack up a few more views for TT yet! :)
:D great news! So excited! VUR HA!
 
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I have been working on a save game edit and small mod to extend the end date of the game to 1966.

A quick teaser/spoiler though: the period from now to then will constitute a Path to Great War Three, which will be coming at some point after the resumption!

When you started talking about extending the timeline to 1966 I was thinking "but Hearts of Iron III only really does world war". This rather ends all hope for those living in the ATL, but it should be a fun ride for us with the world already split into so many competing factions! :eek:
 
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Talking Turkey - Cold War Scenario: Dev Diary 1
:D great news! So excited! VUR HA!
Thanks! Should be interesting.
When you started talking about extending the timeline to 1966 I was thinking "but Hearts of Iron III only really does world war". This rather ends all hope for those living in the ATL, but it should be a fun ride for us with the world already split into so many competing factions! :eek:
You may say that, but I couldn't possibly comment ;) But yes, the Cold War could get warm - perhaps Great War 3 on the horizon? :eek: And I may at some point tap you for a little LUA modding advice: I don't want to go overboard, but some initial 'beta testing' of the mod shows a few areas where altering the AI behaviour could be useful.

To All:

Much of the work has now been done, with:
  • end date extended to 1966 (max), but with events envisaged to go up to but not into the OTL big de-colonisation period (which similarly in the ATL has not yet really begun),
  • a few new events (such as the Vandenberg Plan aid to war-devastated Europe) done and a few more needed to things like alignment, threat and opinion equivalents to what happened in the 'road to war' period of Vanilla,
  • map modding to bring it to the new post-Geneva Treaty era,
  • all techs extended to level 20 max,
  • many Euro-centric VP scaled down, others (in US, for example) scaled up.
  • German industry plundered per the post-war Soviet smash and grab,
  • a few new flags and some geographic compromises because not all the desired countries were enabled in the Vanilla mod and trying to marry up new ones to the save game was just too complicated,
  • all GW2 battle experience zeroes out.
  • all neutrality taken to 75% for all countries, economic and conscription laws taken back to their lowest levels, to minimise pre-war bulk buying.
  • new faction names and reworked victory objectives, and much more.
Still to do:
  • I think I'm going to either remove or scale down all large GW2 era fortifications,
  • some detailed mutual opinion reworking to accord with the new alignments (they, along with threat, have all been zeroed to start with).
  • some more peace-disturbance/threat escalating game events based on ATL narrative events described in the AAR from 1944-50 and potential ones for the coming period. Though some of it may just be done through console commands or save game editing along the way if the event method is too cumbersome: the Vandenberg Plan event chain took me two+ days (on and off) to get right!!
  • playing around with the scenarios I have in mind to see what the potential conflicts do when started, for tweaking of the scenario and to promote balance.
Here follow a few teaser images to illustrate some of this briefly. Will do so in more detail in some chapters covering the new game-specific developments of 1944-50. The map, faction memberships and events per December 1950 won't be changed: it will more relate to threat, alignment, technical and production developments with Turkey and the various major powers. The genuinely new departures will come from 1 January 1951.

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The New Europe. Note new German and Turkish flags.

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A much-simplified Middle East. Turkey has retained Lebanon and Syria as integral GNRs. Egypt controls Gaza and Jordan the West Bank, per OTL and ATL circumstances as at 1950. I had to keep the North African countries (Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, Algeria et al) as part of the UGNR, as the constituent countries could not be liberated via the in-game options and creating the new countries was just too finicky and tedious in a save-game context and really quite marginal to the story. And in initial run-throughs they keep getting revolts, so Turkey isn't gaining a great advantage out of having them as possessions rather than puppets or independent countries.

NBRiFV.jpg

South Asia, reflecting the ATL Pakistan-India settlements in Kashmir and the adjusted borders of East Pakistan. And again, there was no easy Burma liberation, so the ATL will reflect that Japan will grant Thailand that as a fief instead. Simpler and makes them a little more viable as a separate power.

aS4kju.jpg

South East Asia. Again, no easy split for Indochina, so again Japan will grant Vietnam suzerainty over Laos and Cambodia to unite them all under one regime. I will try something to model the Viet Minh and other insurgencies in Indochina by the end of ATL 1950 (a new Imperial Viet flag too). Not quite sure what yet (maybe more than just revolts, perhaps a 'spare' country used to create a communist insurgency movement with land and leadership, etc. Indonesia has been given West Irian/Papua early.

daeZmF.jpg

North and East Asia. All the Chinese absorptions and China-Japan hand-backs to December 1950 modelled. DPRK established as at Dec 1950 ATL peace agreement. DPRK will produce as a single country from 1944 in the resumption, just to give it a chance to build a reasonable army up for the resumption. The China-Tibet War will also be done at the appropriate time.

CLE1F0.jpg

Diplo view for Turkey, which has been adjusted to the dead centre of the triangle for now. Illustrates the current faction memberships and new names and VP controls. In effect, the Turkish-led Bucharest Pact is another mini-faction, though it can't be represented in HOI3 as such. It does mean though that for nor now, it has no more access to major power production licenses. There may be a few minor ones around, but otherwise it will have to develop its own new equipment lines. They will be particularly well behind in tank, aircraft and ship designs and the current more modern licensed ones will gradually decline in relative advancement.

uwM67h.jpg

The new Western Alliance VCs. A mix of liberating Communist-held lands, holding onto current Western regions and ensuring others at least stay out of the Communist Bloc.

U4WtyO.jpg

Just an example of the first few objectives, to give some flavour. Will go into the details more when the actual restart comes around, as some of them (for each faction) may have changed by then depending on how the scenario development and AI dry runs go. Note, for all the factions (as in Vanilla) some objectives can be achieved by diplomacy or conquest, of course.


f7tNGS.jpg

Draft GEACPS objectives. More limited to Japan's direct interests, anti-Communist and influence preservation. Reflects a strategic policy of having China as either an ally or a puppet in the long term, maintaining the integrity of the GEACPS and expelling the Soviets and their influence from the Far East, all the way to Novosibirsk. No anti-Western objectives. That would be pure suicide, and wouldn't suit the kind of scenario I have in mind.

cAaQ4V.jpg

The Warsaw Pact objectives. Most of the descriptions make them broadly understandable, I think. Covers dominating Western Europe and having the UGNR and its Bucharest Pact either as an ally (again) ... or possible conquest target, depending on what happens. 'Op Icepick' is conquering Sweden and Norway.

H2DYhC.jpg

And here is a very initial draft of some Turkish objectives, which I would track manually but in the same vein as the in-game factions. Note, these relate to direct Turkish control, not that controlled by any faction they may join. I'm likely to adjust these - for example, the Balkans ones will align more with those for the Alliance and Warsaw Pact, as they don't currently cover Romania, Hungary, Austria, Greece or former Yugoslavia. They may either reflect objectives that include either Western or Soviet controlled territory, or might delete any reference to both entirely, meaning they could be achieved by joining either or no faction. Just indicative for now. Rather than relying on game mechanics, there would be some event selection (with a narrative background) I'd create to allow Turkey to join a faction or declare independent wars etc in keeping with where the story goes. Still very much under development. Not so I can 'win' a game, but to support plot development and interest for the story.

Db4mkz.jpg

And to finish off this teaser, an illustration of Germany's plight as at October 1944.
The German industry rip-off (about 1/4 to 1/3) was modelled by manually reducing IC and port capacity (not airfields) via save game edits to the provinces. They also have the in-game issue of some key resource shortfalls limiting industry, plus a full civilian economy they can't yet upgrade, despite being communist, because of low national unity. Plus having a large carry-over military means a large proportion of IC is required for consumer goods, and they also carry over a large manpower deficit. And big oil/fuel problems. So they remain a big power on paper, but may currently be of limited use in any war, at this point anyway.

For France and other countries that had most of their military destroyed but have just been liberated, the consumer goods drain starts as far smaller, so should give them the ability to start catching up more. While the USSR, UK, Japan and the USA retain powerful militaries and strong (some, anyway) economies, but the corollary being high consumer goods demands because of that inhibiting new unit construction.

But as a game it out, there may need to be a few LUA tweaks made to stop them producing so much irrelevant stuff in the interim (like France with virtually no army not producing many new divisions at first, when they could afford them, etc).

There you have it: the relaunch will cover all this in more detail, some of the above may change a bit more, and it will trace what happens in relative strengths etc (focusing on Turkey, which I will manage manually) from 1944-50. That may all still be a while off yet, but it's getting there.
 
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South Asia, reflecting the ATL Pakistan-India settlements in Kashmir and the adjusted borders of East Pakistan. And again, there was no easy Burma liberation, so the ATL will reflect that Japan will grant Thailand that as a fief instead. Simpler and makes them a little more viable as a separate power.
Did UGNR build any infrastructure to the salient that goes towards East Turkestan?

Diplo view for Turkey, which has been adjusted to the dead centre of the triangle for now. Illustrates the current faction memberships and new names and VP controls. In effect, the Turkish-led Bucharest Pact is another mini-faction, though it can't be represented in HOI3 as such. It does mean though that for nor now, it has no more access to major power production licenses. There may be a few minor ones around, but otherwise it will have to develop its own new equipment lines. They will be particularly well behind in tank, aircraft and ship designs and the current more modern licensed ones will gradually decline in relative advancement.
Didn't they keep the techs Italy or other Bucharest pact members (Austria, Czechia etc) know? Also, did any industry relocation happen?

Just an example of the first few objectives, to give some flavour. Will go into the details more when the actual restart comes around, as some of them (for each faction) may have changed by then depending on how the scenario development and AI dry runs go. Note, for all the factions (as in Vanilla) some objectives can be achieved by diplomacy or conquest, of course.
Is there a chance in terms of game mechanics for Bucharest pact to join one of the factions if the game goes that way? What I'm asking is, let's say UGNR decided to join Western Alliance, do they go alone and leave the rest of the Bucharest pact to fend for themselves or do they go as a pack?

And here is a very initial draft of some Turkish objectives, which I would track manually but in the same vein as the in-game factions. Note, these relate to direct Turkish control, not that controlled by any faction they may join. I'm likely to adjust these - for example, the Balkans ones will align more with those for the Alliance and Warsaw Pact, as they don't currently cover Romania, Hungary, Austria, Greece or former Yugoslavia. They may either reflect objectives that include either Western or Soviet controlled territory, or might delete any reference to both entirely, meaning they could be achieved by joining either or no faction. Just indicative for now. Rather than relying on game mechanics, there would be some event selection (with a narrative background) I'd create to allow Turkey to join a faction or declare independent wars etc in keeping with where the story goes. Still very much under development. Not so I can 'win' a game, but to support plot development and interest for the story.
Afghanistan is there so I think the design isn't non-anti-comintern, in which case I'd say liberating Western Turkestan (today's -stan republics) and Tatarstan, Caucaus, Crimea etc would be a greater priority than say Pakistan, French Riviera or Spain. Also, as I said before, something about Eastern Turkestan (name Sinkiang in game) would be fun as well.

there would be some event selection (with a narrative background) I'd create to allow Turkey to join a faction or declare independent wars etc in keeping with where the story goes. Still very much under development. Not so I can 'win' a game, but to support plot development and interest for the story.
answers my earlier question :)
 
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I see you have already done a lot of work and it's all looking very interesting indeed. :cool:

There are a couple of things I would suggest looking at for balance. First, do any of the national manpower pools need to be repaired? Second, do you think any of the militaries need to be downsized at all following the end of GW2?

And I may at some point tap you for a little LUA modding advice: I don't want to go overboard, but some initial 'beta testing' of the mod shows a few areas where altering the AI behaviour could be useful.

Happy to help, if I can!
 
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I see you have already done a lot of work and it's all looking very interesting indeed. :cool:

There are a couple of things I would suggest looking at for balance. First, do any of the national manpower pools need to be repaired? Second, do you think any of the militaries need to be downsized at all following the end of GW2?



Happy to help, if I can!
Yes, have been reviewing these, especially France and a few other countries that had what I judged to be unrealistic or inconvenient MP deficits. So Turkey and Germany get some extra MP, for example, and I’ve now gone through to disband a number of German under strength divisions and HQs.

Edit: so France got extra MP (in part to override the LUA script that was preventing much needed land units being built at less than 100 MP) and just found where the triggered permanent population crisis modifier was and deleted in from October 1944 onwards.

One thing I am interested in is reviewing vanilla country LUAS and seeing if I can tweak them a bit. But not knowing the language or even being able to make out what many of the terms are in the scripts. Is there a list or guide anywhere for HOI3?
 
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