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Abdul Goatherd

Premature anti-fascist
Aug 2, 2003
3.400
10.047
So, here's a bit of Bonze Age puzzle.

I was recently re-reading the Roman Antiquities of Dionysius of Halicarnassus, and there's this passage in early Italian history about some "Pelasgians" landing in Italy, setting up colonies in the Po River valley, but then being confronted by some unnamed barbarians and abandoning their colonies and departing forever.

Now you can dismiss this all as mythical hogwash. But it is probably the inchoate memory of something real that happened. So I was curious what.

I don't know much about archaeology. But looking over a few archaeological books, I came across this remarkable "Terramare culture" in the Po valley, emerging c.1600 BCE and flourishing until about 1200 BCE, which seem to fit the bill. It is a bit of mystifying, but the Terramare seem to be the closest real-world equivalent to the "Pelasgians" mentioned by DH.

Now, the Pelasgians, in case you don't know, are a mystery all-purpose pre-Greek people, that seem to pop up everywhere in Greek histories. Acc. to Herodotus, they were an indigenous population in Achaea (Peloponnesus), that moved up to Thessaly, and were then driven out of Thessaly, scattering in various groups over the sea to other places around the Aegean (Cyclades, Crete, Anatolia), and beyond. It is believed the "Pelasgians" is just a catch-all term for any and all primordial peoples driven out of Greece by the Myceneans (c.1600), which makes the timing of the legendary arrival of the "Pelasgians" in Italy and the real emergence of Terramare people somewhat accurately timed.

However, archaeology doesn't connect them. Archaeologists seem to believe the Terramare people came overland from the north. There are two theories I've come across.

The first is that they were either primordial Ligurians or Lake District peoples (non-Indo-Europeans) driven out of the Alpine valleys by Proto-Italo-Celts (Indo-Europeans) who had arrived in southern Germany, and thus they moved south into the Po River valley. The Terramare were particularly concentrated in the central Po area between Cremona, Mantua and Verona. But evidence of Lake ancestry is rather thin. This conjecture is largely because of the similarity of "palafittes" houses of earlier Lake District and later Terramare - both build their houses on pylons. But this could just be coincidence. Terramare don't built on lakesides or riversides (like the Districters did), rather they built their pylon houses on dry land, sometimes even on hills, packed and fortified. The Terramare may have been forced to build their houses on pylons because of frequent flooding of the flatlands from the Po River and its numerous tributaries (Adda, Oglio, Mincio, etc.), none of them yet embanked or controlled.

But materially speaking, the closest culture to the Terramare are actually an obscure tell culture in Hungary, which also disappears around 1600. So this is the second hypothesis - that these Hungarians just picked up and moved to northern Italy and became the Terramare. Indeed, it seems far more probable, as the Terramare people promptly "re-set" the Amber Road to the North. Previously, the Amber Road went through the Carpathians/Hungary up to the Baltic shores, now it is re-set further west, going directly from northern Italy to southern Denmark. So it is was probably the same intermediary people (Hungarians), who left Hungary for some reason, migrated west to northern Italy, and just resumed their old trade connections.

So this Pelasgian story starts wearing thin. Whether Lake Districters or Hungarians, Terramare came by land, and not by sea. So not seaborne proto-Greeks.

But then, well, kinda Greeks. Because apparently the Terramare began trading heavily with the Mycenaeans. There's ample material evidence of heavy trade between Terramare and Mycenaean cities. Indeed, after the Carpathians started thinning, the Po delta is where the Mycenaeans went for amber and other nifty Scandinavian stuff.

It seems the Terramare Italians grew quickly and were very numerous. Some 220 Terramare sites have been found around the central Po, all of them very densely populated settlements and villages. This is great agricultural land, so pop boom is expected. Population estimates run above 150,000, probably quite higher should archaeologists ever get permission to excavate modern urban areas.

But then *poof*. And here's the greatest mystery of all. They all disappeared. Practically overnight.

They didn't get attacked - violence is not indicated. The Terramare just left. All of them. Some 150,000 people just collectively decided one day that Italy just wasn't for them. In the course of a few decades, starting around 1200, they began to disappear. By 1150, all the Terramare villages are abandoned, and all people just gone. Where'd they go?

They didn't go south, we know there was a more backward Apennine culture** there. And they didn't go north - got the brutish Italo-Celts there. It seems like the Terramare left Italy by sea.

So DH may be half-right - they may not have arrived by sea, but it seem the "Pelasgians" left by sea.

This is not a small number. If 150,000 people get on boats and go, then surely they'd show up somewhere. Where'd they go?

Now I know the first thing that comes to mind: the Sea Peoples!

Well, could be. The timing would be perfect - the time the Terramare start to disappear (1200) is exactly the time when Mycenae, Anatolia, Levant, etc. begin to be attacked. Were they the attackers? But I can't find a single work on the Sea Peoples that actually makes the connection, even conjecturally. They talk endlessly about Sardinians and Sicilians**. But the Terramare Italians are completely overlooked and go unmentioned.

[** - There's a second related story in DH, where a group of Pelasgians left the Po valley in its early colony days, and moved to the Apennine highlands, where they got into conflicts with the Umbri. While the first group stayed in the Po valley, this migrant second group of Pelasgians formed an alliance with the "Aborigines" (proto-Latins) in the highlands against the Umbri. This second group of Pelasgians then helped the Aborigines attack and drive out the "Sicels", who DH asserts were living in the lowlands of Latium at the time. After a series of attacks, the Sicels were defeated, picked up and left Latium by ship, and that's how they ended up in Sicily. [The Sicels do have Sea Peoples connections - they are likely the "Shekelesh" reported in Egyptian records; some historians believe the Sicels ended up in Sicily after attacking and failing to conquer Egypt.] Once the Sicels were gone, then this second group of Pelasgians settled the lowlands of Latium and Etruria, and built farms and towns. But then they too disappeared. This time, according to DH, not because of a collective decision or a foreign attack, but because of years of drought, hunger, disease and civil war, dwindling their population. Some of this second group of Pelasgians left by sea (doesn't say where), the remainder assimilated into the Aborigines (who later became the "Latins"). Thus ends the second Pelasgian story. The abandoned Pelasgian homesteads in Etruria were taken over by the "Tyrrheneans" (Etruscans), whom DH assures us were definitely a local indigenous population in Tuscany. But this second group of Pelagians in Latium doesn't interest me so much as the first group of Pelasgians in the Po valley, the Terramare.]

So does anybody know anything more about the Terramare? Where they came from, where they went? They seem rather overlooked everywhere.
 
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You realize that the Po area was always prone to malaria and other diseases outbrakes?
It could be they died in an epidemic. But I am just guessing.
 
You realize that the Po area was always prone to malaria and other diseases outbrakes?
It could be they died in an epidemic. But I am just guessing.

The Po delta yes. In which case they should like other populations did - move away from the river areas ("bad air"). Which they did - eventually, after 500 years or so. But where did they go?

The high pop numbers suggest that they had already developed some degree of immunity over those five centuries to whatever diseases the Po could throw at them. If it was a disease epidemic, it would have to be something really novel and unusual.
 
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I had never heard of thee peoples, but your story makes sense.

Hungarian-plain peoples move to Po-plain, pick up their trade. As the Bronze Age Collapse gets into swing, trade dries up and they move to attack their erstwhile Mycenean trading partners who they believe are stiffing them. This works out so well they pick up with other sea peoples to go attack/raid other people, eventually reaching Egypt. They eventually fail, so scatter along with all the other sea peoples, becoming basically indistinguishable due to long alliance and dwindling numbers.

The few who stayed behind may have been eventually assimilated by later Italo-Celtic peoples, migrating who-knows-where.
 
Are there any historical examples of naval migrations this "complete" where a whole society of 100,000 people sailed away? The naval migrations I'm aware of (Anglo-Saxon to Britain, Viking settlements through Europe, European settlement of America, etc) involved a portion of the population sailing away at a time while most stayed behind. A society usually won't maintain the shipping capacity or the experienced sailors required to move more than a small fraction of its population at a time.
 
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Are there any historical examples of naval migrations this "complete" where a whole society of 100,000 people sailed away? The naval migrations I'm aware of (Anglo-Saxon to Britain, Viking settlements through Europe, European settlement of America, etc) involved a portion of the population sailing away at a time while most stayed behind. A society usually won't maintain the shipping capacity or the experienced sailors required to move more than a small fraction of its population at a time.

Not really that I can think of, to be honest.

It's true, most cases involve expelling surplus pop to a new colony. This happened plenty shortly after this period (witness the "Magna Graecia" migrations to the Ionian, Black Sea & Apulia, etc.)

There are cases of wholesale abandonment of colonies, esp. in Americas, but these tend to be a few hundred, or a couple thousand at best. Norse-colonized Greenland was maybe 3,000, 5 max, when it was abandoned.

It would definitely have to be in small groups. But the question is still where?

Just to add: it also possible they just hopped a short distance east to the Balkans, and somehow merged into invading waves of Illyrians, Dorians and Phrygians. But these were all Indo-European brutes. But I don't really think there are any traces of them either east or west.
 
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Not really that I can think of, to be honest.

It's true, most cases involve expelling surplus pop to a new colony. This happened plenty shortly after this period (witness the "Magna Graecia" migrations to the Ionian, Black Sea & Apulia, etc.)

There are cases of wholesale abandonment of colonies, esp. in Americas, but these tend to be a few hundred, or a couple thousand at best. Norse-colonized Greenland was maybe 3,000, 5 max, when it was abandoned.

It would definitely have to be in small groups. But the question is still where?

Just to add: it also possible they just hopped a short distance east to the Balkans, and somehow merged into invading waves of Illyrians, Dorians and Phrygians. But these were all Indo-European brutes. But I don't really think there are any traces of them either east or west.
Some of the evidence points toward a societal collapse. The population grew higher and higher and more and more concentrated until it vanished quite quickly and population density then took a thousand years to recover in the region. Clearly something that made the society viable was no longer there. Regardless of if this was a climatic change, a vanished trade route or some other reason, the shock may have been too great for there to have been an organized response.

Instead of moving as a group to the Balkans or anywhere else it may have been a case of "every man for himself" with people scattering among their neighbors in small enough groups that they were assimilated without leaving a noticeable archaeological impact. This was a settled world where all desirable land belonged to one group or another. You can't just migrate in and set up your civilization again unless you are able to defeat the natives. Turning up as small groups of refugees may be allowed though and the Indo-European brutes seem to have been fond of accepting clients from other peoples and assimilating them.

Some may have taken to the sea instead, choosing a life as raiding pirates over that of a refugee at the mercy of foreign peoples. Perhaps they joined up with other outcasts in the Aegean to form the Sea Peoples,
 
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I'm betting the onset severe climatological occurrences, and other factors related to it, as the likely culprit. Considering that the collapse of the culture closely coincides chronologically with the Late Bronze Age Collapse, I would probably concur with hypotheses put forth by @Geriander above as being close to the truth of the matter, given what we can gleam from the findings to date.
 
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Did one of you guys make this?

Anyway, having brought up what seemed like an uncovered topic a month ago, this was apparently made a week ago and popped up in my suggestions today:


Pretty much goes over the Terramare as explained earlier (Hungarian roots, connection to south Denmark, Mycenean trade, etc., oddly they overlooked Dionysius's literary allusions).

The only part I did not realize is increasing concentrated settlements. They claim that the populations became more centralized over time under a few chieftains.. They don't really have a good explanation for the departure - some hand-waving vagueries about environmental stuff and pressure , but seems like once a Terramare chieftain made a decision, his people went along with it. And the Terramare chieftains left one by one. (Although if one chief left with his folk, relieving local pressure, why should the other chiefs also leave? Left unexplained)

The youtube author is more adamant that the main destination/target of the Terramare was Mycenean Greece. He contends they left en masse by ship and overland over the Balkans to hit it, and strongly suggests that the mass Terramare migration (to Greece, Sicily, etc.) was the spark that kicked off the rest of the Sea Peoples, propelling them towards the Egyptian & Levantine coasts.

So, he is effectively positing a new theory of Bronze Age collapse. Terramare are not "another outcast" on the list of migrant peoples, but the root disturbing cause that set other Mediterranean peoples in motion. I like.

He mentions the Terramare assimilated upon arrival in Greece. He leaves it a bit vague who they assimilated to - the current Myceneans or the future Indo-Europeans? It is possible the Terramare arrived first, tried to attack Mycenean citadels, and then settled in. But then the Indo-European (Dorian) invasion happened just after, so the record of the first invasion gets merged with the second one. So, @Geriander, they did not join up in the Balkans "on the way", but only after, while in Greece.

Anyway, very cute coincidence they came up on my suggestions. Not sure why. Frightening how Google knows me.
 
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Did one of you guys make this?

Anyway, having brought up what seemed like an uncovered topic a month ago, this was apparently made a week ago and popped up in my suggestions today:


Pretty much goes over the Terramare as explained earlier (Hungarian roots, connection to south Denmark, Mycenean trade, etc., oddly they overlooked Dionysius's literary allusions).

The only part I did not realize is increasing concentrated settlements. They claim that the populations became more centralized over time under a few chieftains.. They don't really have a good explanation for the departure - some hand-waving vagueries about environmental stuff and pressure , but seems like once a Terramare chieftain made a decision, his people went along with it. And the Terramare chieftains left one by one. (Although if one chief left with his folk, relieving local pressure, why should the other chiefs also leave? Left unexplained)

The youtube author is more adamant that the main destination/target of the Terramare was Mycenean Greece. He contends they left en masse by ship and overland over the Balkans to hit it, and strongly suggests that the mass Terramare migration (to Greece, Sicily, etc.) was the spark that kicked off the rest of the Sea Peoples, propelling them towards the Egyptian & Levantine coasts.

So, he is effectively positing a new theory of Bronze Age collapse. Terramare are not "another outcast" on the list of migrant peoples, but the root disturbing cause that set other Mediterranean peoples in motion. I like.

He mentions the Terramare assimilated upon arrival in Greece. He leaves it a bit vague who they assimilated to - the current Myceneans or the future Indo-Europeans? It is possible the Terramare arrived first, tried to attack Mycenean citadels, and then settled in. But then the Indo-European (Dorian) invasion happened just after, so the record of the first invasion gets merged with the second one. So, @Geriander, they did not join up in the Balkans "on the way", but only after, while in Greece.

Anyway, very cute coincidence they came up on my suggestions. Not sure why. Frightening how Google knows me.

I'd be really skeptical at that claim, it's my biggest complaint about pop-history, no subject is allowed to exist or be interesting by itself, nono, [today's subject] is definitly and directly the cause of [significant historical event], I think I can find about a dozen videos about things that caused the fall of nazi germany right now, all talking about different things

although it did lead to one funny moment where a food history channel mocked the idea by suggesting that a custard tart led to the downfall of richard II of england
 
I'd be really skeptical at that claim, it's my biggest complaint about pop-history, no subject is allowed to exist or be interesting by itself, nono, [today's subject] is definitly and directly the cause of [significant historical event], I think I can find about a dozen videos about things that caused the fall of nazi germany right now, all talking about different things

although it did lead to one funny moment where a food history channel mocked the idea by suggesting that a custard tart led to the downfall of richard II of england

Which part? The reason for decline or the setting others in motion? The first is still a question mark, but I was already inclined towards the latter.

The original Terramare puzzle does suggest sudden big migration movement, with its potential for significant disruption, pointing in the direction of Mycenean Greece as a natural destination. That is happened just in time of the Bronze Age collapse is a little too much to be a mere coincidence.

The thesis has been floating around Italian language literature for a while, I am just surprised it hasn't been picked up by other scholars. Or at least forced them to address it.

Everyone seems fascinated with Eric Kline's "1177 BC" book, but I never found its vague "systems collapse" thesis particularly convincing. That he makes no mention of the Terramare is a significant omission (Kline finally added in a paragraph about them in the revised edition of 2021).

I think we're still at the very early stages of understanding what happened in the Bronze Age collapse. Surprisingly so. I thought scholars had been at it for a while, but apparently they've each just been staring at their corner of the elephant. The evidence is still scattered and not brought together. When the dust finally settles, I think the Terramare will play a larger role in it than they have so far.

Remember - you saw it here first!
 
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Did one of you guys make this?

Anyway, having brought up what seemed like an uncovered topic a month ago, this was apparently made a week ago and popped up in my suggestions today:


Pretty much goes over the Terramare as explained earlier (Hungarian roots, connection to south Denmark, Mycenean trade, etc., oddly they overlooked Dionysius's literary allusions).

The only part I did not realize is increasing concentrated settlements. They claim that the populations became more centralized over time under a few chieftains.. They don't really have a good explanation for the departure - some hand-waving vagueries about environmental stuff and pressure , but seems like once a Terramare chieftain made a decision, his people went along with it. And the Terramare chieftains left one by one. (Although if one chief left with his folk, relieving local pressure, why should the other chiefs also leave? Left unexplained)

The youtube author is more adamant that the main destination/target of the Terramare was Mycenean Greece. He contends they left en masse by ship and overland over the Balkans to hit it, and strongly suggests that the mass Terramare migration (to Greece, Sicily, etc.) was the spark that kicked off the rest of the Sea Peoples, propelling them towards the Egyptian & Levantine coasts.

So, he is effectively positing a new theory of Bronze Age collapse. Terramare are not "another outcast" on the list of migrant peoples, but the root disturbing cause that set other Mediterranean peoples in motion. I like.

He mentions the Terramare assimilated upon arrival in Greece. He leaves it a bit vague who they assimilated to - the current Myceneans or the future Indo-Europeans? It is possible the Terramare arrived first, tried to attack Mycenean citadels, and then settled in. But then the Indo-European (Dorian) invasion happened just after, so the record of the first invasion gets merged with the second one. So, @Geriander, they did not join up in the Balkans "on the way", but only after, while in Greece.

Anyway, very cute coincidence they came up on my suggestions. Not sure why. Frightening how Google knows me.

Interesting video. Some DNA testing of the remains of the supposed Terramare chieftain tombs in the Balkans would be needed to back it up. The evidence presented is limited to a spread of material culture and as the saying goes, pots are not people.


Why do you speak of a "future" Indo-European invasion? The Mycenaeans were themselves Indo-European. Given the timeline it is also likely that the Terramare were Indo-European as well. At least the arrivals from the Hungarian plain in 1600 BCE would have been.


Edit: Talking about timelines... how would this add up? The date for the abandonment of the Terramare settlements mentioned in the video is 1150 BCE. That is the very end of the Bronze Age Collapse. While they may have packed up and migrated to the Aegean they would arrive after the collapse had been going on for a hundred. years.

A reverse causality makes more sense given this timing. The sharp decline of trade due to the Bronze Age Collapse could have been the final nail in the coffin for a society already suffering from climatic change and environmental over-exploitation.
 
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Interesting video. Some DNA testing of the remains of the supposed Terramare chieftain tombs in the Balkans would be needed to back it up. The evidence presented is limited to a spread of material culture and as the saying goes, pots are not people.


Why do you speak of a "future" Indo-European invasion? The Mycenaeans were themselves Indo-European. Given the timeline it is also likely that the Terramare were Indo-European as well. At least the arrivals from the Hungarian plain in 1600 BCE would have been.

Later wave Iron Age Indo-Europeans, that is Dorians (and Italics, Celts, etc.) The Proto-Italo-Celts were north of the Alps throughout this time period. The Italics only began to migrate over the Alps after the Terramare had left.

We don't know what the Terramare were. DH identification as "Pelasgians" insinuates pre-Indo-Europeans. Lake Districters, to whom they have also been connected, were almost certainly Ligurians (Basque types). Certain aspects of Terramare certainly suggest early Bronze Age Indo-Europeans, at least culturally influenced by them. I guess that's something genetics can help settle. But with the possible exception of the Terramare in 1600, there's no evidence of anybody crossing the Alps until after 1150. Early inhabitants and cultures on the Italian peninsula mostly came by the Mediterranean Sea.


Edit: Talking about timelines... how would this add up? The date for the abandonment of the Terramare settlements mentioned in the video is 1150 BCE. That is the very end of the Bronze Age Collapse. While they may have packed up and migrated to the Aegean they would arrive after the collapse had been going on for a hundred. years.

That's the estimated end date of the very last settlements. The migration took one generation, roughly 1200-1150.

A reverse causality makes more sense given this timing. The sharp decline of trade due to the Bronze Age Collapse could have been the final nail in the coffin for a society already suffering from climatic change and environmental over-exploitation.

I wouldn't necessarily expect them to move. Disruption of trade would expect many to gradually move out of towns into the surrounding countryside, not abandon them entirely or leave the country altogether.

I suppose a reverse causation is theoretically possible, but lack of a time lag makes the chronology a bit too tight.

Even so, if it was trade disruption first that set the Terramare in motion, that still has to be tracked. If Terramare wanted the prestige goods they were denied, they'd likely go to the source - Mycenean Greece. So, they're still a factor in the story.

At any rate, the Terramare adds a new element into the historians' narrative of the Bronze Age collapse, who have thus far entirely ignored them. Whether it's just an extra footnote or leads to substantial revisions is something that we'll have to wait and see. IMO, they help fill in some of the holes.
 
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Everyone seems fascinated with Eric Kline's "1177 BC" book, but I never found its vague "systems collapse" thesis particularly convincing. That he makes no mention of the Terramare is a significant omission (Kline finally added in a paragraph about them in the revised edition of 2021).
What's vague about it? It's not the word collapse, I assume, that's in general use as a description of the outcome at least. It's not controversial either to say that the Bronze Age Near East civilizations formed a system of sorts, they were interconnected diplomatically and economically so that events affecting one component had ramifications for the others. On the descriptive level, I don't see the problem.

On the level of causes, it's true that Cline doesn't give a monocausal explanation. His position is that there's a lot we don't know, but the pieces of the puzzle that we do have don't seem to show the same thing happening everywhere. If there were different pressures in different places, the best we can do is to figure out how they overwhelmed the system. This is particularly true for pressures that were present long before the collapse (such as slave revolts or restless border tribes), but were managed thus far and only reached a crisis point after other pressures diverted resources. It's frustrating that he doesn't specify which was the first link in the chain but I understand his caution.
 
What's vague about it? It's not the word collapse, I assume, that's in general use as a description of the outcome at least. It's not controversial either to say that the Bronze Age Near East civilizations formed a system of sorts, they were interconnected diplomatically and economically so that events affecting one component had ramifications for the others. On the descriptive level, I don't see the problem.

On the level of causes, it's true that Cline doesn't give a monocausal explanation. His position is that there's a lot we don't know, but the pieces of the puzzle that we do have don't seem to show the same thing happening everywhere. If there were different pressures in different places, the best we can do is to figure out how they overwhelmed the system. This is particularly true for pressures that were present long before the collapse (such as slave revolts or restless border tribes), but were managed thus far and only reached a crisis point after other pressures diverted resources. It's frustrating that he doesn't specify which was the first link in the chain but I understand his caution.

In principle, I have no problem with the idea of a system. It's the lack of explanation. It's just too vague, and he's too satisfied with that.

Systems are evolutionarily stable - they're not delicate pots. They don't tend to be overwhelmed, even by a thousand little causes. It takes some severe disruption.

Magnitude is a problem historians generally are very poor at estimating, but it is vital to any story, e.g. if trade is merely 2% of your economy, then trade disruption isn't much of a problem.; if it is 25%, then there will be issues. Historians usually have little or no idea of the magnitude of things. Particularly if they're working with fragments of evidence which give no sense of size. They tend to over-read into the little they have available. So they tend to give minor things larger significance than they merit, or put them on the same proportionality as major things.

A migration of 150,000 people is a major thing. A few years of drought is not - droughts happen all the time. Restless border raiders are routine, the Mongol invasion is not. Again, a system is evolutionarily stable, it is designed to withstand pressure from a thousand little things at once. But it is not built to handle Genghis Khan.

Monocauses at least try to give a sense of relative importance - and commits the historian to it. He may be wrong, but at least we would know what he is wrong about, and can have an argument about it. But this wishy washy "it all matters" is just a typical historian's dodge when he can't crack the knotty problem of relative magnitude, or wants to avoid commitment.
 
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In principle, I have no problem with the idea of a system. It's the lack of explanation. It's just too vague, and he's too satisfied with that.

Systems are evolutionarily stable - they're not delicate pots. They don't tend to be overwhelmed, even by a thousand little causes. It takes some severe disruption.

Magnitude is a problem historians generally are very poor at estimating, but it is vital to any story, e.g. if trade is merely 2% of your economy, then trade disruption isn't much of a problem.; if it is 25%, then there will be issues. Historians usually have little or no idea of the magnitude of things. Particularly if they're working with fragments of evidence which give no sense of size. They tend to over-read into the little they have available. So they tend to give minor things larger significance than they merit, or put them on the same proportionality as major things.

A migration of 150,000 people is a major thing. A few years of drought is not - droughts happen all the time. Restless border raiders are routine, the Mongol invasion is not. Again, a system is evolutionarily stable, it is designed to withstand pressure from a thousand little things at once. But it is not built to handle Genghis Khan.

Monocauses at least try to give a sense of relative importance - and commits the historian to it. He may be wrong, but at least we would know what he is wrong about, and can have an argument about it. But this wishy washy "it all matters" is just a typical historian's dodge when he can't crack the knotty problem of relative magnitude, or wants to avoid commitment.
I see what you mean. My experience is that authors who commit to monocausal explanations are usually less informative about the evidence, they tend to overstate the bits that support their thesis and understate what doesn't. Every once in a while you need a decent survey study to remedy that. I agree that when you only get those, it obscures the knotty questions, but it's a question of balance. I like Cline because he clearly lays out the evidence and isn't shy about telling us where it's lacking.

Substantially, I'm not so sure about the magnitude thing. Bronze Age economies are subsistence with a little bit on top that sustains the state superstructure, so that 2% could make a huge difference. The definition of system collapse makes that perfectly clear:
(1) the collapse of the central administrative organization; (2) the disappearance of the traditional elite class; (3) a collapse of the centralized economy; and (4) a settlement shift and population decline. (Renfrew, quoted in Cline 2014, 161.)
Only the last criterium is about the population and economy as a whole. All the others are about the top of the social pyramid.

That's not to say that a 2% loss of productivity could kill the system just like that, as you say droughts and border raiders were common and they must have regularly wreaked more destruction than that. The point is rather that the system could deal with an occasional loss of some magnitude but in the long run it was very probably sensitive to a much smaller loss.

This leads me to think that maybe we shouldn't be looking only at events that cause a 25% disruption in one year but also at one or a series of events that cause a sustained loss, even at much lower levels of destruction. The destruction of Ugarit may be of the simple type, a hugely destructive invasion just when the king is campaigning elsewhere. But that's just one element in the system. A major kingdom like the Hittite wouldn't be taken out in a single clash, that likely involved some whittling away at the borders and loss of revenue and manpower over time. Egypt actually withstood the invasion. Its Canaanite colonies were taken over by Philistines but the evidence doesn't support even a single takeover of that region; the options vary from piecemeal conquest by remnants of the Sea Peoples to resettlement as subject allies by the Egyptians (like the settlement of Germanic peoples as foederati in the late Roman Empire).

Let me try to reword that in Braudelian terms: an event would need to be massive to have such an impact, conjunctural change could be much smaller and structural change could actually be pretty small and yet wipe out the necessary surplus for the system to exist. The Sea Peoples' invasions could be conjunctural but a couple of battles is not what we'd be looking for, it would be whether they disrupted trade patterns (and the disappearance of the Terramare people would fit with that whether or not they invaded some other place).
 
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Later wave Iron Age Indo-Europeans, that is Dorians (and Italics, Celts, etc.) The Proto-Italo-Celts were north of the Alps throughout this time period. The Italics only began to migrate over the Alps after the Terramare had left.

We don't know what the Terramare were. DH identification as "Pelasgians" insinuates pre-Indo-Europeans. Lake Districters, to whom they have also been connected, were almost certainly Ligurians (Basque types). Certain aspects of Terramare certainly suggest early Bronze Age Indo-Europeans, at least culturally influenced by them. I guess that's something genetics can help settle. But with the possible exception of the Terramare in 1600, there's no evidence of anybody crossing the Alps until after 1150. Early inhabitants and cultures on the Italian peninsula mostly came by the Mediterranean Sea.




That's the estimated end date of the very last settlements. The migration took one generation, roughly 1200-1150.



I wouldn't necessarily expect them to move. Disruption of trade would expect many to gradually move out of towns into the surrounding countryside, not abandon them entirely or leave the country altogether.

I suppose a reverse causation is theoretically possible, but lack of a time lag makes the chronology a bit too tight.

Even so, if it was trade disruption first that set the Terramare in motion, that still has to be tracked. If Terramare wanted the prestige goods they were denied, they'd likely go to the source - Mycenean Greece. So, they're still a factor in the story.

At any rate, the Terramare adds a new element into the historians' narrative of the Bronze Age collapse, who have thus far entirely ignored them. Whether it's just an extra footnote or leads to substantial revisions is something that we'll have to wait and see. IMO, they help fill in some of the holes.

Starting in 1200 BCE still leaves them with very little time to get to the Aegean, establish themselves there and get involved in the acts attributed to the Sea Peoples.

They wouldn't be the Karkisha, Lukka, or Sherden mentioned in the Kadesh inscription or the Eqwesh, Shekelesh, Teresh who fought against Merneptah as that all took place before 1200 BCE.

They could arrive in time for the sack of Ugarit in 1180 BCE and for the fight against Ramses III in the following years but that would be the early wave of departures.
 
Starting in 1200 BCE still leaves them with very little time to get to the Aegean, establish themselves there and get involved in the acts attributed to the Sea Peoples.

They wouldn't be the Karkisha, Lukka, or Sherden mentioned in the Kadesh inscription or the Eqwesh, Shekelesh, Teresh who fought against Merneptah as that all took place before 1200 BCE.

They could arrive in time for the sack of Ugarit in 1180 BCE and for the fight against Ramses III in the following years but that would be the early wave of departures.

1200-1150 is archaeological dating, which is as usual a bit elastic.

As to the inscription, that has limitations. I am not sure the Egyptians would have known whom everybody was exactly.

That said, the Terramare contribution would not be necessarily as leaders, but as disruptors and pushers, setting other peoples in motion. This is what I mean by filling holes. We don't know why the Sicilians, Sardinians, Myceneans, etc. suddenly all started moving around the same time. We have plausible theories that somebody attacked their homelands, but we don't know who. The Terramare would fit the bill nicely.

That is, if we accept there was a Terramare mass migration by sea and they did not all just quietly die off in an epidemic. Which we still don't know.

And partly in reply to @Barsoom, the thing I like about the Terramare is not only do we have roughly the right geography and right timing, we also have something rarer - magnitude. 150,000 is a heck of a lot of folk. This is not just another band of jolly pirates.

We may not know exactly where they went and what they did, but wherever it was, it would have been of major impact.
 
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1200-1150 is archaeological dating, which is as usual a bit elastic.

As to the inscription, that has limitations. I am not sure the Egyptians would have known whom everybody was exactly.

That said, the Terramare contribution would not be necessarily as leaders, but as disruptors and pushers, setting other peoples in motion. This is what I mean by filling holes. We don't know why the Sicilians, Sardinians, Myceneans, etc. suddenly all started moving around the same time. We have plausible theories that somebody attacked their homelands, but we don't know who. The Terramare would fit the bill nicely.

That is, if we accept there was a Terramare mass migration by sea and they did not all just quietly die off in an epidemic. Which we still don't know.

And partly in reply to @Barsoom, the thing I like about the Terramare is not only do we have roughly the right geography and right timing, we also have something rarer - magnitude. 150,000 is a heck of a lot of folk. This is not just another band of jolly pirates.

We may not know exactly where they went and what they did, but wherever it was, it would have been of major impact.
I do believe there is a connection between the disappearance of the Terramare and the Bronze Age Collapse, both the timing and their prior trade with the Mycenaeans support that. If they migrated en masse, then yes, that may have been a cause for the unrest in the Aegean area. But that isn't certain, we don't have direct evidence of mass migration and no evidence of their settlement location, as far as I know (correct me if I'm wrong). We could also be looking at first some kind of upset of the Mycenean kingdoms, subsequent loss of trade and wealth for the Terramare, and then the displacement or assimilation of a weakened people by neighbors or by new invaders. In other words, it may be another effect rather than the cause.
 
1200-1150 is archaeological dating, which is as usual a bit elastic.

As to the inscription, that has limitations. I am not sure the Egyptians would have known whom everybody was exactly.

That said, the Terramare contribution would not be necessarily as leaders, but as disruptors and pushers, setting other peoples in motion. This is what I mean by filling holes. We don't know why the Sicilians, Sardinians, Myceneans, etc. suddenly all started moving around the same time. We have plausible theories that somebody attacked their homelands, but we don't know who. The Terramare would fit the bill nicely.

That is, if we accept there was a Terramare mass migration by sea and they did not all just quietly die off in an epidemic. Which we still don't know.

And partly in reply to @Barsoom, the thing I like about the Terramare is not only do we have roughly the right geography and right timing, we also have something rarer - magnitude. 150,000 is a heck of a lot of folk. This is not just another band of jolly pirates.

We may not know exactly where they went and what they did, but wherever it was, it would have been of major impact.


Yes the Egyptians may not have know one sea raiding tribe from another. They did however know that the raiders came across the sea and it started before 1200 BCE. These sea raids combined with the destruction of cities that were caused in conflicts between the great powers of the region to cause well documented destruction before 1200 BCE. Even if the archaeological record is off by a couple of decades and the Terramare left earlier it would need to be by quite a lot for them to be the ones who set the dominoes falling toward the collapse. A reverse effect of war and piracy in the Eastern Med drying up trade to the Terramare would happen more swiftly. The Terramare society could in a single season feel the effect of the chaos in the Eastern Med if their trade in that direction dried up. For them to bring chaos to the eastern Med (aside from whatever damage they could deliver directly by sea) would take a lot longer.

The climatic changes hitting the Terramare probably weren't limited to them. Sicilians, Sardinians, Mycenaeans, and others were likely feeling it too and taking to piracy to supplement their rations. The Terramare settlements seem to have been quite distant from the sea so they probably weren't the first to turn to piracy. If they pulled off a organized land migration to the Balkans I can see them delivering the final death stroke to the Mycenaean civilization but unless the departure happened significantly earlier I don't see them as likely instigators.
 
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