[The Resistance] - Game XI

[randakar]

Just as pla- err expected.
Now I am certain of some things.

Great work, sherlock.
Mind sharing your brilliant observations, or are you going to keep it all to yourself?

Not that I think you're being dumb or something, but you're kinda stating the obvious here.

Told you so.

It's easy to say that if all you say is "I don't trust this team". Which I think about covers what you said.

But the good news is that we have plenty of evidence.

Let me work something out, and I'll report more later.

I have this suspicion someone else will beat you to it.

-) (at least) one of Randy, Tamius and Cliges is a spy
-) if tamius is a spy, so is aedan

Facts, and easy to translate into one of those possible team set pyramids.

The following are assumptions but should be reasonable:
-) Cliges and Randakar are not both spies

I'm pretty sure that that is a fact

-) Tamius + Cliges and Tamius + Randakar combos are unlikely IMO

With tamius pushing for this team, I'd say you're correct. Unless he figured out some way to prevent double sabotages from occurring in that case.

-) if tamius AND aedan are evil, then their compatriot is likely tonka

Anything I've missed?

If tonka and Tamius are compatriots they are putting up a damn fine show, fighting in the thread like that.

Sorry, I don't think those are reasonable assumptions.

Why?
Don't just throw that out there - put together your case.

I'm leaning toward tamius rather than randakar as saboteur.

But I still hope to present a more fleshed out theory later.

Please do.

 

[unmerged(281782)]

Well, it was explained already for me, it is in fact more likely that the frst team contaned two Spies than if we took a pair at random. And it is far from certainty that if tamius is a baddie, then tonka is his mate.

Regarding my vote, it is pretty simple. Were that team clean, two Spies were approving it and throwing the game. I didn't find it likely, and I wonder why TNT thought otherwise.

 

[randakar]

Anyone else find it a tad suspicious that he changed his vote?

To be honest I hadn't even noticed that .. until you mentioned it.
Glio, can you explain why you did that?

It's quite possible that Cliges and Randy are both spies, which would explain why neither sabotaged in round 1.

Especially since it's the first proposal, so Cliges might have thought it had no chance of passing.

To Cliges: I'm afraid I'm leaning towards you as the saboteur.

Or he could simply have thought to give himself some resistance cred with that proposal by not sabotaging.
There's more than one way to read that sort of outcome.

Well, it was explained already for me, it is in fact more likely that the frst team contaned two Spies than if we took a pair at random. And it is far from certainty that if tamius is a baddie, then tonka is his mate.

Regarding my vote, it is pretty simple. Were that team clean, two Spies were approving it and throwing the game. I didn't find it likely, and I wonder why TNT thought otherwise.

It's a weird thing - a four man team proposed by someone not on the team has the peculiar property that every resistance member not on it knows at least one of those four people is a spy and should reject it, and if the team and the person who proposed it are clean all people not on it are spies and should therefore all reject it as well.
But maybe not everyone has thought through all the implications of a proposal like that.

 

[aedan777]

I think these result support the idea that Tonka is a spy and he gave his proposal earlier to keep only one spy on the team. Therefore I think that Cliges and Tonka are spies with Glio as a probable spy.

 

[tamius23]

And it is far from certainty that if tamius is a baddie, then tonka is his mate.

But it is certain that if I am a spy, aedan is one too.

 

[tamius23]

I'm doubtful of aedan, but I don't trust tonka or Cliges at the moment.

pass Strong Leader to aedan

pass KACIOU to TNT.

propose the team of

Tamius
Randy
Aedan

Approve

TNT, you're welcome to use KACIOU on me, if you're worried about my allegiance.

 

[tonkatoy5]

Reject

Because last team failed and was very similar

Also why don't you need four people? I know it says you only need three but we have seven players and if we had six we would need four so is that a mistake?

 

[aedan777]

Approve
This is the best team we can make I think

 

[jpr123]

Also why don't you need four people? I know it says you only need three but we have seven players and if we had six we would need four so is that a mistake?

See the first post for number of people on each team. Missions 4 and 5 will each require four members.

 

[tamius23]

Pyramids of Fun​

Cliges (C)
Tonka (O)
Aedan (A)
Tamius (T)
TNT (N)
Gliomarto (G)
Randy (R)

COA COT CON COG COR
CAT CAN CAG CAR
CTN CTG CTR
CNG CNR
CGR

OAT OAN OAG OAR
OTN OTG OTR
ONG ONR
OGR

ATN ATG ATR
ANG ANR
AGR

TNG TNR
TGR

NGR​

If T is a spy, so is A (removing teams with T and no A)

COA CON COG COR
CAT CAN CAG CAR
CNG CNR
CGR

OAT OAN OAG OAR
ONG ONR
OGR

ATN ATG ATR
ANG ANR
AGR

NGR​

>=1 of T, C, and R is a spy (removing teams with just OANG)

COA CON COG COR
CAT CAN CAG CAR
CNG CNR
CGR

OAT OAR
ONR
OGR

ATN ATG ATR
ANR
AGR

NGR​

 

[tonkatoy5]

I might be reading your thing wrong but why is Glio and Randy on all your teams?

 

[randakar]

I might be reading your thing wrong but why is Glio and Randy on all your teams?

You're reading it wrong ;-)

ATN has no G or R, for example.

As for the team: In order to approve I will have to choose between Cliges and Aedan for a spy suspect. If you are a spy then Aedan is one too and this team has two spies, so that case I am pretty much discounting you from this particular equation.

I'm particularly leaning towards Aedan being the least suspect of the two, here. He was basically pressured into making that last team, and I kinda doubt a spy would have responded like he did.

## voted by PM

 

[tonkatoy5]

You're reading it wrong ;-)

ATN has no G or R, for example.

As for the team: In order to approve I will have to choose between Cliges and Aedan for a spy suspect. If you are a spy then Aedan is one too and this team has two spies, so that case I am pretty much discounting you from this particular equation.

I'm particularly leaning towards Aedan being the least suspect of the two, here. He was basically pressured into making that last team, and I kinda doubt a spy would have responded like he did.

## voted by PM

I meant the teams on the bottom of the pyramid, as I assumed those were the ones he thought had the highest chance of working, or am I wrong on that?

 

[tamius23]

I meant the teams on the bottom of the pyramid, as I assumed those were the ones he thought had the highest chance of working, or am I wrong on that?

There is no significance to the order. It's more convenient for me to write them that way than in a row and it also lets me tell more easily if I have missed something.

 

[tonkatoy5]

There is no significance to the order. It's more convenient for me to write them that way than in a row and it also lets me tell more easily if I have missed something.

Oh I got you I thought it was like out of these two teams this is the best, and then out of these teams this is the best, but yeah was looking it at wrong.

 

[Trinitrotoluen]

Well, it was explained already for me, it is in fact more likely that the frst team contaned two Spies than if we took a pair at random. And it is far from certainty that if tamius is a baddie, then tonka is his mate.

My thinking is that a 2-spy team on the first mission does only make sense if they can be absolutely sure there will be no sabotage. If there is one, the spies are already in deep doo-doo (and with 2 they pretty much have lost the game). Even if the first mission passes without incident, they'd still have to make sure there is only 1 sabotage during mission 2. Again, if there are 2, they are doomed. Overall there are quite a few pitfalls for such a team, which lead me to assume that a spy wouldn't want to have such complications.

Anyway, for the current team I'll

vote in PM.

 

[Cliges]

Please do.

Well, new developments have more or less changed my whole perspective. Or background reason, at least. But I still think you're not the Spy. And I am all but 100% sure that it can't be that you are both Spies.

APPROVE.

I am putting this theory to the test. But I have nothing to gain by putting it all out right now.

 

[randakar]

Well, new developments have more or less changed my whole perspective. Or background reason, at least. But I still think you're not the Spy. And I am all but 100% sure that it can't be that you are both Spies.

APPROVE.

I am putting this theory to the test. But I have nothing to gain by putting it all out right now.

That's actually pretty odd. If you're resistance, you must assume either Tamius or me is a spy, and here you go approving a team with the both of us and Aedan on there.
If anyone should reject this, it's you. Unless you believe there to be two spies on it, and even then ..

 

[unmerged(281782)]

Well, new developments have more or less changed my whole perspective. Or background reason, at least. But I still think you're not the Spy. And I am all but 100% sure that it can't be that you are both Spies.

APPROVE.

I am putting this theory to the test. But I have nothing to gain by putting it all out right now.

What. The. Hell?

Okay, from now on I'll count Cliges as 90% Spy. 10% are for the possibility of him simply being wasted.

Tamius, thanks for pyramids of fun, there is however one funny point. Your proposed team brings us second sabotage in 18 variants out of 21 possible. Sorry, but I can only

reject

 

[jpr123]

Tamius's proposal of:

Tamius
Randakar
Aedan​

Was accepted 4-3 as follows:

Approve: Aedan, Tamius, Randy, Cliges
Reject: Gliomarto, Tonka, TNT

TNT used KACEOY on Aedan.

The mission failed. There was 1 sabotage.

Spies lead 2 sabotages to 1 successful mission.

Round 4​

TNT is the new leader.

TNT has the following cards to distribute:

Overheard Conversation – Use immediately – The player to whom the Leader passes this card must publicly choose one player adjacent to him on the player list. This player's role will be revealed to him through PM by the GM.

Establish Confidence – Use immediately – The Leader must choose one other player publicly. The GM will reveal the Leader's Role to that player in PM.

TNT is free to propose a team once the cards have been distributed. This mission requires four people and needs two sabotages if it is to fail.