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Today's play-testing: Task force missile defence

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  • Naval War: Arctic Circle
We're working on some necessary fixes and tweaking a test scenario we are planning to show off in Cologne next week.

In one, we play NATO and are trying to stop a small (but significant) surface task force consisting of a Kirov, an Udaloy 2 and a Gorshkov, in tight formation.

I launched four P-8 Poseidon from Keflavik, each having 11 Harpoon anti-ship missiles (AGM-84L, not the future versions). When well within range, I thus launched 44 Harpoons towards the Kirov, and the planes returned home assured this was a job well done.

Well, wouldn't you know, the SAMs and point defense systems on the Kirov and its comrades shot down every single one of the 44 Harpoons. Not one reached its target.

The ship armament should be reasonably accurate, but of course we have no idea how fast the ship can react, how accurate the weapons are and all that, in real life.

However, I have a theory that the SAM and point defense is, as RTSers like to say, overpowered.

Any thoughts?
 
Here's a little screenshot of the battlereport which shows some of the action I described:

NWAC_Battlereport_AreaDefense.PNG
 
I am not much of a expert on Russian class ships but it sounds like the ship is overpowered it might react a little to quickly to the harpoons. Also were the harpoons skimming the water or coming in high?
 
This isn't necessarily overpowered...

I am not an expert on Russian weapons HOWEVER...

A type 45 can actively track and engage 12 missiles simultaneously while also launching a number of Aster missiles into the "Basket" to ensure that any misses instantly have another missile directed onto them. The Vertical launcher can ripple launch 8 Aster missiles in 10 seconds. Finally Sampson and the Long range search radar on a Type 45 can actively track over 200 targets ready to take up engagement as soon as an Aster missile is free (Which happens very quickly due to Aster missiles using ARH with Data link update.).

Coupled with 2 Phalanx, 2 30mm weapons along with counter measures the Type 45 is an extremely difficult target to down. Made even more difficult when you consider CEC ability and it's data sharing. An American Arleigh Burke is certainley going to be of not too disimilar standard (Though it's radar and missiles are a less capable pair in my mind... Especially given America's announcement that it would change it's radar setup to mirror UK and EU setups).

Looking at your Russian SAG, an equivalent RN 2030 force would be 1 Type 45 and 2 Type 26. Depending on the point of detection of Harpoon the situation wouldn't be much different.

If Harpoon is detected before the maximum range of the Type 45's aster 30 then the ship can track the targets and launch aster 30 missiles. The said missiles will be updated in flight and therefore can impact the Harpoon as they reach the maximum range of the Aster 30... Even assuming a conservative hit to kill ratio response you will knock out 6 missiles.

The 42 remaining missiles are now at 120km, that's 120,000m from your ship. They are closing at 240m/s. That means they will take 500 seconds to impact your ship. Meanwhile another volley of Aster 30 missiles are launched. They take 87 seconds to get to 120km off the ship. However the Harpoons add closing speed to that. As a rough estimate your Aster's are closing with the Harpoon at 1640m/s. From a range of 120km. That means your next wave of asters will infact impact at roughly 73 seconds from launch.

Again assuming that you have only a 50% kill ratio you have knocked out another 6 missiles. There are now only 36 Harpoon left. Your Harpoons are 18km closer rounding up. Continuing to make this easier for ourselves the Harpoons are now at 100km from the ship. Another 6 Aster 30 are launched (only 18 Aster 15 left after this). These missiles will impact with the Harpoon in 61 seconds (Actually 60.9). Another 3 Harpoon have been knocked out. This leaves 33 Harpoon left.

Unfortunately at this point we are out of Aster 30... We must wait untill the missiles enter Aster 15 and CAAM range. CAAM should have a similar range as Aster 15 but be much faster. But for purposes of this exercise I'll keep it's speed and range as Aster 15s.

Now we have 3 ships opening fire.... 12 Aster 15 from the Type 45. As well as the 2 Type 26, the Artisan radar is apparently only able to direct and engage 4 missiles at once. So that adds another 8 Missiles.

20 Missiles are fired, designed to engage the opposing Harpoon at the 30km mark. This is done between the point of the previous engagement (ended at around 70km) and the current time scale.

10 more missiles hit. Knocking down 10 Harpoon. There are now only 23 Harpoon left. However we are down to the 30km mark. It takes just 125 seconds for Harpoon to travel 30km. Fortunately it takes a mere 30 seconds for Aster 15 to do this distance (1000m/s for Aster 15)... Again accounting for closing speed and the next egagement will happen at 24 seconds.

However this engagement is only with 6 Aster 15 from the Type 45 and 4 from each Type 26. A total of 14 missiles. 7 more Harpoon are knocked down. Leaving only 16 Harpoon. The harpoon are now also just over 24km from the ships. The Type 45 has run out of missiles but now switches to using CEC and Datalink to give the Type 26 the best possible chance of engaging with their remaining missiles.

Given that CAAM is quadpacked, each Type 26 will probably have 24-32 missiles... As it's the RN and therefore they are funded by the British government and treasury we will go with 24. They have used 8 each so now only have 16 missiles each. Using CEC the type 45 can control and guide 12 of these. With another 8 provided by the Type 26.

The missiles are launched over a period of 12 seconds. The harpoon were only 100 seconds from the ship but this firing takes 12 seconds. Meaning they are now only 88 seconds from the ship and at a distance of just over 21km. Engagement takes 16 seconds. 10 more Harpoon are knocked out. Leaving 4 Harpoon. The Type 26 still have 12 CAAM missiles left. Furthermore the Phalanx on each ship would be beginning to come into play. Along with Decoy systems. Thats more than enough to deal with 4 Harpoon who are still 60 seconds away


NOw I Acknowledge I made some assumptions;

1) Did a lot of the math in my head instead of with a calculator... Someone may wish to do the actual calculations for 2 bodies intercepting.
2) I assumed that the Harpoon where picked up at least 90 seconds before they reached the 120km mark... Not an unreasonable assumption considering the size of the P-8 and it's lack of stealth. (The Type 45 would track it and Helicopters would be dispatched to help with radar coverage)
3) I also assumed the Type 26 will have 24 CAAM in a Slyver vertical launcher.

That said I did assume a poor hit/kill ratio with the SAMs of only 50%. In reality I would expect at least 70% of the asters in each salvo to claim a Harpoon.
If this was done with 2 Type 45 it would be even more of a white wash.

A Kirov class has many more CIWS and SAM systems than a Type 45... However I don't know the reaction speed of a Kirov nor of it's radar capability. So the Russian force would probably fare worse off. That said considering the RN force would have defeated the attack before even having to use CIWS or Counter measures I would expect the Russians to not be completely sunk.

Harpoon would do very little damage to a ship like a Kirov as well.

I think the game has to point out the following things as highlighted above;

1) Mass missile attacks will not work against modern systems unless they are very very fast or very very stealthy... Even then you will need a huge amount to penetrate a task force using missiles alone.
2) To actually engage a task force you must seek to get as close as possible (You launched your Harpoons from as far as possible yes) to reduce reaction time.
3) You must simultaneously seek only to get close if you can strike the first blow
4) You MUST MUST use EW to JAM enemy radars, make life difficult and confuse them.

5) If you want to sink a ship use a submarine
6) If you want to sink multiple ships quickly... use a submarine
7) If you want to sink multiple ships without being shot back at and without offering lots of reaction time... use a submarine.

Air power is definitely dangerous, however you can counter it with other Airpower, with Ships and even things like weather can cause problems for it... It is easier to track due to being able to be found with everything from a mark 1 eyeball to a radar to infrared etc.
Missiles hit above the water line, missiles are not so stealthy they will not be found. Missiles are just objects moving fast, tenis players can intercept a tenis ball going over 100mph... Supersonic doesn't mean a huge amount unless they have no time to react at all (which in the case of modern technology is usually less than 15 seconds which means getting the missile close.... difficult to do in a plane).

SAM's are very capable and contray to the RAF's and every other air forces opinion in the world the Navy doesn't feel hugely threatened by air power, nor by the missile. Similarly it wasn't the plane that killed off the battleship.

It was the torpedo... the torpedo is a hugely destructive weapon. It was what usually dealt the death blow to battleships... In many respects it almost allowed the Germans to win the war. Coupled with the Submarine that can only really be detected by listening to sounds. That is what Navies should and do fear.

Ultimately to attack a SAG like the one I described, or the one you tested you need to use a combined arms approach. Missiles, torpedoes and EW.

Edit:

But again it all depends, did the Russians have Helicopters up in the air with radar on? Where the warships radiating? Had they picked up the P-8's and thus be able to determine the launch of weapons. Or was it 3 warships passively radiating with no helicopters up in the air to act as scouts and therefore very vulnerable...

At what point did they start firing?
 
Thanks for the feedback!

The harpoons were sea-skimming, launched from around 70% of range (as close as I dared to go with the long range SAMs and possibly FAK PA's in the air). They already were radiating like crazy, since they were illuminated by active radar. In this very artificial scenario I had air supremacy, but just as I launched I noticed a Ka-27 between my planes and the task force, which would give them advance warning.

I think the reaction time is definitely exaggarated. Since it is a computer AI, it can shoot back immediately on detection, and that is surely not realistic. We're probably going to build in some "reaction time" modelling for that.

Great comments, Brutoni. I think your calculations are very reasonable. Harpoons are powerful, but those subsonic missiles give the defense a lot of time to shoot them down.

The same test scenario starts with a sub in position for a torpedo attack. Against those, there is not much defense - except running, and evasion tactics is not yet finished (if it was, even this simple scenario would be darned hard to win, and we are to demonstrate the game to journos in a few minutes).

Jamming will be a great addition, too. If you can precede a massive missile launch by hitting them hard electronically, it will be much more effective!
 
JanH,

Indeed Harpoon does give the opponent a huge amount of time to react the the missiles. The key with Harpoon is that modern missiles can take waypoints, allowing you to bypass any early warning assets they may have to get to the target. IF you can Bypass airborne early warning then a non-dedicated AAW surface ship will probably only pick up Harpoon 20 miles from target...

I hasten to add this can depend on many things, A type 45 for instance is criticised for it's radar set up by Aegis fans, yet that same setup extends the Horizon by quite some range and allows more accurate tracking of a Sea Skimmer. A Kirov for instance may actually lose a great many SAMs to "clutter" of the radar lock due to the nature of Sea Skimming missiles.

All that said it seems that in this scenario the Ka-27 detected the Harpoon (I don't even know what the radar capabilites of the Ka-27 are so being me I would have assumed they are as capable as a Merlin with blue fox radar). That would have allowed any ship with a data link to start engaging it's targets.

Jamming is how to make SAMs less powerful in my mind, simply swarming your opponent with missiles takes great effort and has NEVER been easy. The key to any victory with naval power lies in knowledge... To get that knowledge you need good radar, to stop your opponent getting it you need Jamming.

Then again jamming opens up a whole new can of worms; ASEA radars operate across a wide band of frequencies as oppossed to the single one of traditional radar. This makes them hard to JAM. They are also very powerful and will quite often burn through jamming with ease. Finally if you do JAM them they are set to automatically switch to a passive mode that will pick up the jamming direction and a missile will shortly be heading towards they jamming aircraft.

So as you can see it's all about balance of force, you need long range Jamming aircraft, you need to launch Anti-radiation missiles to make an opponent scared to run on active radar too long... This gives him other things to consider, does he engage your jamming aircraft to get a clear shot and therefore slow his reaction time to the real ship killers? Or does he simply rely on his radar and continue to engage the ship killers as best he can!! Does he use intermitent radar capability to make it harder for the ARMs to hit him? Or does he engage those ARMs that are very fast... Again reducing his reaction time to the real missiles.

Finally you have stealth aircraft moving in at speed anyway, your opponent doesn't know what they are for? Providing a better picture for missile lock? Or are they carrying LGB's? IF they are then that adds even more problems and those fighters will have to be dealt with, and they add a human element that is more difficult to defeat!!

At least thats how I would overwhelm even a small SAG. With no risk of Collateral damage then it's hust a case of hitting them with as much as possible from multiple directions (unless it's an aegis system then you attack from one side only to overwhelm the time sharing illuminators!!).
 
JanH said:
Brutoni,

The Ka-27 uses this radar, at least it does in NWAC.

Yes, that is how we'd go about trying to deal with a surface task force. It surely makes for a tense game. Can't wait to play mano-a-mano on this thing!
Click to expand...

Indeed, if it's tense with an AI then it's probably going to be even more tense against a thinking person!!

EDIT:
Thanks for the read...So actually it's closer to a Sea King AEW
 
I was just playtesting something else in the scenario (that aircraft change speed in a logical way, in fact). So I had no scouting, and the attackers were stealthy aircraft firing supersonic missiles. As you may see, the Nimitz group only managed to shoot down four or five missiles.

Just the way it's supposed to be, really.

But the testing went fine :)
 
JanH said:
I was just playtesting something else in the scenario (that aircraft change speed in a logical way, in fact). So I had no scouting, and the attackers were stealthy aircraft firing supersonic missiles. As you may see, the Nimitz group only managed to shoot down four or five missiles.

Just the way it's supposed to be, really.

But the testing went fine :)
Click to expand...

Again I do wish to hasten that there is a lot of "hype" about the effectiveness and stealthiness of missiles. I don't know what the Nimitz group was made up of but usually you'll have 2 Arliegh Burkes, 1 Tigo and 1 Frigate.

The 3 Aegis class ships would easily knock down more than 4 missiles between them even if the task force was in close proximity. Stealthy aircraft aren't going to get that close to cause huge huge problems.

Even a hypersonic missile takes more than 10 seconds to hit a target 30-40km out. In that time a Vetical launcher will have fired 8 SAMs at it... Remember air defence against such fast moving obvious targets is handled automatically by the ships computers in a very... aggressive manner.
 
I like the way you describe the balancing problems you are dealing with. Unfortunately I have no clue when it comes to military hardware and their specs, so I`m not much help here. But keep up the good work.
 
JanH said:
I was just playtesting something else in the scenario (that aircraft change speed in a logical way, in fact). So I had no scouting, and the attackers were stealthy aircraft firing supersonic missiles. As you may see, the Nimitz group only managed to shoot down four or five missiles.

Just the way it's supposed to be, really.

But the testing went fine :)
Click to expand...
This may be off-topic, but I have to ask, exactly which bombers were they?
 
Also just a quick question, how is ammunition going to work? I'm thinking about missiles, whether you'll have to think about it and conserve for a long war, or if you can fire them all, every engagement. Also will the missiles be able to use waypoints? Is there traverse time and blind spots built into the ships defense systems?
 
MARCOM-CANADA said:
Also just a quick question, how is ammunition going to work? I'm thinking about missiles, whether you'll have to think about it and conserve for a long war, or if you can fire them all, every engagement.
Click to expand...

Your ships will be limited to the ammunition they have at the start of the game. It is possible we may include some at-sea resupply, but I doubt it at this stage as we're closing the feature list and relegate some things to expansions/patches.

For aircraft, we can choose which ammunition will have unlimited supply and which will have a limited store on the airfield/carrier. For example, you may have unlimited sidewinders, but tomahawks are in short supply.

The time taken to change loadouts and reload planes that have exhausted its fuel and must land, will of course always be a scarce resource in any game! This is one of the crucial tactical considerations you have to make.

We are also (somewhat tentatively) planning a resupply system for ammo and possibly aircraft. This will give the game an economic aspect, where you have "credits" (acquired over time, or based on reaching objectives, etc) where you will have to choose e.g. whether to acquire amraams or tomahawks, or maybe save up for another F-35. This is something we're working on. It will certainly only apply to some games (scenario and player-vs-player). The concern we are trying to address is the problem where two parties expend all their offensive weapons and end up in a boring stalemate.

Also will the missiles be able to use waypoints?
Click to expand...
We will hopefully be able to implement this feature in the game. It is mostly a user interface problem. You'd have to select individual missiles or groups of them, give them waypoints (like you can already do for any other unit), and so on. It's hard to make it work well in a real-time strategy game, but we'll certainly try.
Is there traverse time and blind spots built into the ships defense systems?
Click to expand...
Not sure what you mean by traverse time. If you mean some sort of "reaction time" in the systems, I think we need that for added realism.

Weapons and (some) sensors do have blind spots, ie sectors they can't see/engage. If this is not what you mean, please elaborate further.
 
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