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O.K. I finally figured out how to use the Search function (it uses a different syntax than what I'm used to) and I found one thread about this, but no specifics. I'm just worried that my game is screwed up since I never played Spain before. The Reformation occured really early (and it took many years before anyone started converting) - the rulebook says that it can't occur before 1517 and I suppose that's about the time it occured. Does the Jean Calvin event percentage increase by 1% each year? If that's the case then wouldn't a 10% chance mean that the Reformation occured 10 years ago? Historically the Treaty occured in 1494 so it's 33 years overdue...
 
Normally I have it at the right time but in one game it didn't happen at all (imagine a French Argentina :D) and in my current game it took till after the Reformation in 1520.
 
I don't know what determines when the treaty starts, but it varies. I have had it as Portugal in the 1520s, earlier for other nations.
Side note - I tried playing the Inca for fun. Got a random event that Cuzco had become Catholic (good missionaries, I guess). So I edited the save file, changed my religion to Catholic, started actually researching tech, and changed my pagan provinces to Catholic by the random colonists I received. The Pope must have been pleased.
Then the Treaty kicked in. All my provinces had Spanish shields on them, and they were just waltzing in and taking them without a DOW. I imagine the Incan emperor was quite pissed off that he had converted....
 
I had mine around 1495 in my current game as a direct result of my colonisation of Qatar. I thought it always came after the first non-Portuguese/Spanish colony.
 
Is it possible it occurs when the Papal States gets a new monarch? At least maybe that has something to do with it? Historically, didn't the Spanish/Portugese petition the Pope for the Treaty? It'd be cool if you could do something like that in the game with some diplomatic/monetary penalty of course including some sort of required agreement between the two nations.
 
Maybe you played with historic events off?

Or your EU copy has caught the mad cow disease and should be burned?