Originally posted by Agelastus
Actually, absent French support, militarily you were losing, as Washington's brave and sensible decision to avoid direct confrontation between the Continental army and British regulars helps demonstrate. Politically? Well, that's another question. Although about a third (?) of the American population were loyalist, they certainly weren't as active or influential as the out and out American Republicans. As to the importance of the French contribution, the surrender at Yorktown wouldn't have occurred without it. And as to the importance of Yorktown, I believe the British Prime-Minister's response to the news was "Oh God, we've lost" (as in the war, almost a direct quote.)
Nice insult by the way. Rather inappropriate though considering the sources of the main political tracts in the America's pre-Revolution.
Actually, Lord North thought the English cause was hopeless and had been wanting to resign ever since the disaster at Saratoga, but George III wouldn't let him.
The French didn't intervene militarily in any useful way until 1781. Between Saratoga in 1777 and Rochambeau's landing at Newport in 1781, the fortunes of war went back and forth. After Saratoga, British fortunes waned dangerously. They were forced to give up Phaladelphia and Newport and concentrate in New York. By mid-1778, all the British still held in the Thirteen Colonies was the city of New York and environs. In 1779, fortune tilted the other way, and Cornwallis was able to conquer Georgia and South Carolina without too much difficulty. In 1780 and 1781 fortune swung the other way as American guerrilla tactics blocked Cornwallis' campaign against North Carolina and broke his hold on Georgia and South Carolina (only Savannah and Charleston were retained by British forces). Cornwallis was able to batter Virginia, but as his supply lines were cut, he was forced to retreat to the coast and rather unintelligently went to an easily blocked possition at Yorktown. So by the time the French intervened with significant military forces (Rochambeau's army and de Grasse's fleet) in 1781, the British held only New York City, Yorktown, Charleston, and Savannah. While they did possess two of the colonies' largest cities, their position wasn't anywhere near as strong as it had been in 1777 (when they held New York, Philadelphia, most of New Jersey, as well as other outposts), and the situation for the Americans certainly wasn't dire, or even poor.