Originally posted by dudmont
You've peeked my interest, now follow through. Tell me more. Is it because of Airpower, Tanks, mobility, logistics, artillery? Why?
More or less all of the above. First of all I do not necessarily subscribe to the view, that Allied airpower will gain air supremacy over the battle field, second of all I do not think that airpower would have been as decisive in the vast expanses of Russia.
Obviously that takes a bit of explaining. The Red airforce of '45 was surprisingly strong. It was made up of trained and experienced pilots, and its fighters and bombers could certainly match Western designs.
Since the Allies would be attacking, most of the airwar would take place behind Soviet lines. Close to their own bases and at the far end of Allied fighter range. As for deep Allied strikes with heavy bombers they would have to penetrate very far indeed before they could do any significant amount of damage to Soviet industry, so they would be without their Mustang escorts. The Schwinemunde (sp?) Raids showed all to clearly how vulnerable bombers are on such missions.
So IMHO the main Allied strenght - its airforce - would not be a decisive factor.
The Soviet and Allied armies were huge in '45, but the Soviet was by far the largest. And while the difference may not seem so significant in terms of manpower, it definitely was so in terms of available frontline personnel since the two armies had very different philosophies for force structure. In the Allied armies most of the personnel was assigned to support duties such as supply etc. The Soviets took the opposite approach and did everything possible to cram as many men as possible into the actual combat units. The much smaller "tail" gave their units less staying power in combat compared, but the effects of this were neglible since it gave the Soviets more units/reinforcements so they could shift units in and out of the frontline more often.
If you look at the number of available units and formations in '45, the Allies were vastly outnumbered. So in order to break through the initial Soviets lines they would have to deploy their entire strenght (I am at work right now, but I think we are talking about 3 or 4 US armies, 2 British armies, 1 Canadian army and 1 French army). The Soviets were in a far more favourable positions. They would have been able to build a defence of immense depth with several fully manned lines of defence and strategic reserves at least in tank army strenght. Even if an Allied army succeeded in breaking through 3 lines of their own strenght, any breakthrough could easily have been cut off by Soviet mechanized formations.
Let's also not forget, that the Soviets for 4 years had fought the bulk of what might have been the best army of the 20th century, and that they had won. Not "only" through attrition, but by playing the Germans game better than the Germans. They, and their leadership, was undoubtedly hightly skilled and experienced and with an extremely high moral by '45. They also had equipment that in some respects (as armour) was second to none. The T34/85 is probably the best (measured by general usefulness) of the war and the JS-II's and III's with their 122mm guns could blast through anything the Allies could throw at them.
Last, but not least, there's the whole strategic situation of the Allies. I guess they are supposed to repeat the German warplan and capture European Russia until the Volga? That means they would run into exactly the same logistical problems as the Germans before them. If they are supposed to tackle the winter of '46 better than Napoleon or Hitler, they should be prepared by '45. To the best of my knowledge, they were not.
A more interesting scenario would be a Soviet attack into Western Europe. That would at least give the Allies a fighting chance.
Regards,
EoE