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I don't think the US is ready for any real war of attrition against an enemy that can't be beaten without heavy loss of men over a long time. Really, I don't believe it. Besides Patton who ceases to
be a factor in 1946 anyway there is virtually no allied General who has really understood the new tactics of Blitzkrieg while the Russians already have learned the hard way and successfully employed it. after the Germans I know only two powers who really learned the Blitzkrieg lesson: USSR who never fought a war on suitable terrain after WWII and Israel who actually showed what they can.This operational advance gives the soviets a boost that doesn't automatically lead to victory but may make it possible to encircle large US units now and then. Loss of Manpower, especially if it's domestic and not allied does really hurt US propaganda. If the USSR doesn't collapse for some reason and war drags on until 1946, 47 etc we will finally see the US people questioning the object of this costly war.
 
Originally posted by Emperor of Europe
That gives you Soviet production numbers for 1942 until the first 4 month of 1945 of 101,200 that went to one front and not two like the Allied planes.
My apologies, I will have to do some research into actual deployed squadrons in 1945. Will get back when I have some figures.
I wrote is in response to your post about how excellent the Allied planes are. My point was, that Soviet plane design evidently not lacked behind the Allies, and that the Korean war showed that quite clearly. The planes that fought there were on the drawing board in 1945, so it’s highly relevant for the comparative state of the airforces.
I don't think it's relevant. Drawing board planes are not going to be fighting in 1945. The air war is going to be fought with the same planes used in the war.
Yes, a Shturmovich needed fighter cover just as every other bomber type aircraft. What’s the point?
The point is that until one side erodes enough fighters from the other side, tank killers and other tactical bombers are either going to be grounded, or destroyed. Refer to the Battle of Britain for the result of sending tactical bombers in daylight over contested air space.
So the Allies and the Soviets had air supremacy over their fronts in 1944. How does that make the Soviet airforce appear weaker?
The Soviets were unable to dominate the skies in the way the allies could during the late stages of the desert war, and over Europe. Does this have any relevance to a possible clash in the east? Possibly, either the allies are in for a shock with Russian planes strongly contesting air superiority, or they will effectively repeat their previous success.
Shooting down Ju-87’s in droves of course. What else should cause their losses, and why else should the aircraft be deemed outdated for the Eastern front?
Then why, in the name of God did the Germans continue to use them?
As I said: the reduction of German rail transport took place in the face of a beaten Luftwaffe and within range of Allied fighters. A comparable reduction of Soviet rail transport would take place in the face of a full-strength Red Airforce and the Allied planes would have to penetrate far deeper into enemy territory. So losses would be far greater and results smaller due to the low concentration of rail in Eastern Europe.
They don't have to penetrate all the way to Moscow. I said before, withing range of a Mustang. The US air force had been taking catastrophic losses for 18 months over Germany, shouldn't we suppose that they will send escorted bombers to hit railway infrastructure since discovering that this was more effective than industrial bombing. The 8th airforce sustained "acceptable losses" which saner commanders might describe as catastrophic, would they not repeat this commitment in Russia?
What benefit was it to the Allied war effort to kill 60,000 women, children and old men in Dresden? It just boosted the German will to continue the fight, nothing else.
I don't want to argue Dresden again, we have had this discussion.
Anyway, let’s say the Allied night bombers (Brits) actually penetrated Soviet airspace and bombed a Soviet city within range...What happens? Approximately 40,000 or so women, children and old men die. Nothing else. There’s no industry in Minsk or anything else. Why should the Soviet high command care for one second that 40,000 more had died?
Then why did the Germans feel the need to protect their cities? Why have AA in Rostock and Dresden. Do you believe that Russia will not try to protect their citizens? Are communists less worried about civilian depopulation than fascists?
Soviet AA production was approximately one sixth of German production. I do not presume a lot of AA guns to be present around Minsk for the very simply reason, that there’s nothing valuable to protect in Minsk for the Soviet high command.
So, in the face of city firebombing you assume that Stalin will simply ignore it, not attempt to concentrate AA around known targets, and not divert any industrial or military personnel to the protection of Soviet citizens?
Tell that to the Luftwaffe officers who were accused at the Nuremberg Trials for the bombings of Rotterdam, Warsaw and London.

Air warfare was under the rules of ground warfare, which was regulated by the Hague Convention. Under those quite vague rule, the legal ground for strategic bombing was shaky. Morally it was totally unacceptable as pointed out by the bishop of Canterbury during WWII.
I did not know of any officers who were convicted of bombing cities. If they were, then their convictions were a sham.

Air warfare was not under the Hague convention of 1907. IIRC another convention in 1927 I think the Hague, did specifically outlaw city bombing, but was not ratified by any nation.

The closest to outlawing city attacks is a clause which limits naval bombardment, Hague 1907 Section IX: Those rules permitted the legal bombardment of workshops...plants useful to the enemy war effort...defended locations...undefended locations if the local authorities did not agree to remove all facilities of military production. So, by defending their cities with AA and flak Germany made them legal targets for Naval bombardment. If you wish to stretch Hague's naval clauses to air warfare, then stretch the exceptions as well.

Why does an air war over Soviet held territory allow the Allies to have temporary air superiority? That would require the Allies to win that air war – preferably quite decisively. I am still not convinced that they will gain that decisive victory.
I concede the point in the abscence of reliable air deployment figures.
Sorry, I’m confused :) Will they reduce it’s effectiveness or will they destroy it before the weather changes?
Even a best case scenario for the allies will not destroy the Red Air force, there is too much space in Russia to disperse surviving formations, and production output is good enough to replace losses. However, the allies might attrite the Red Air Force enough to ensure it to be innefective by September.
 
Originally posted by Produce Pete
Besides , it would not last long. Because quite rapidly the Russians would throw the allied forces into the sea. Stalin would raise his hand in greeting as the Red Army marched through the Arc D'Triumph France and Germany forced to sign humiliating annexation agreements in Versailles.
Given that the Soviets lost 300,000 men in the Battle of Berlin, against remnants of the Werhmacht and the Civilian defense force lost more than 1 million in Stalingrad, why would you presume that Russia will simply waltz through the American, British and French forces for a Parisian vacation?

Originally posted by SoleSurvivor
I don't think the US is ready for any real war of attrition against an enemy that can't be beaten without heavy loss of men over a long time
This is the absolute reality of 1945, it would take a Russian attack to spark a war, the US and Britain were never going to head east on their own.
 
Originally posted by Emperor of Europe


AFAIK we are discussing a war between the US and USSR immediately after the war. Stalin would not have time to do, what he later did especially against the various Caucasian people.You may not doubt that people longed for Western democracy, but I do, especially since very, very few had any idea what a democracy is.

Besides the Poles and Czechs, Stalin had oppressed all the other groups I mentioned prior to WWII. The Ukranians had suffered by far the worst but Stalin and Lenin went after them all.

As for the Poles and Czechs, the Soviets started to round up members of the democratic resistance (as opposed to communist) almost as soon as they entered the respective areas. Further, the Poles fought a war against the Soviets in the 20s and were partially conquered by the Soviets in 39.

As for democracy, no they may not have much knowledge of it, but they did know about the millions Stalin had killed in the very very recent past.

Originally posted by Emperor of Europe
Remember that even the Baltic and Ukranian Soviet soldier fought against the Germans even though some of their fellow countrymen viewed the Germans as liberators. Also remember that the largest Polish army contingent was in fact Communist, and that the Poles already felt betrayed by the Western allies.

Well, my understanding is until German atrocities became known to them Ukrainian and Baltic units were very unwilling - but seeing as execution for desertion wasn't just the law but in fact common in the Red Army, at the time they had little choice...

As for Poland though, if the Soviets aren't given time to execute/imprison all the democratic partisans, doesn't there activities combined with traditional anti-Russian sentiment push them into the western camp. And Britain and France did honor their alliance while the Soviets attacked...

Originally posted by Emperor of Europe
What would the war objectives of the Western allies be - in your opinion? And what would ensure a Soviet surrender once these objectives had been reached?

Self determination and democracy for Eastern Europe - same as our stated goals in WWI and WWII. I honestly think the most likely snap in US/USSR relations occurs when Stalin says no to elections in Poland, not when Russian and American troops first meet.
 
Originally posted by Produce Pete
If there were as many anti-communists etc in Russia in 1945 as all of you yanks seem to believe, then Siberia would be home to the world's largest cities today. But it isn't.

In the 30s the Soviets exterminated alot of the Ukranian resistance. They killed 20 million people primarily in Western and Southern Europe.

When the Germans showed up they offered to arm the locals to fight Stalin. A new generation had grown up and still hated the primarily city dwelling communists. The Germans were setting up whole division structures when Hitler made them stop and the SS start butchering their neighbors and families.

Seeing as the Allied armies wouldn't be mass murdering them I presume the Ukranians (and the others) would have done the same for the US. What would Jews in 1945 given a chance to fight NAZIs do?

Originally posted by Produce Pete
Because there weren't many who opposed the party. 200 million people who had basically been slaves until communism came, quite frankly had never had it better and did not give a hoot about democracy.

The Russian peasants wanted to be able to farm and be basically left alone. At first they supported the communists because they didn't want to be drafted and sent to fight the Kaiser. The Soviets decided to enslave them more throughly than the Czar had ever dreamed of leading to the Peasant War of the 20s. The peasants came far closer to destroying the Soviet State than the democratic/monarchists forces had in the original civil war.

After their defeat and disarmament (the peasants had gotten large amounts of weapons when disserting from WWI), the Soviets praticed genocide in the 30s. This is hardly 'having it better'
 
Sean and EoE sorry for the incomparable info, as your doing your own digging for the allied air ill just add this.

Sov production. sourced from John Kegan

Art all calibres, in 000s
40----30.2
41---127.1
42---130.3
43---122.4
44----72.2

Mil Air
40---8.2
41---21.7
42---29.9
43---33.2
44---19.1

Munitions in millions
40--63
41--183
42--238
43--229
44--109

Agricutral production, as it bears on famine in 45.
40 as base 100%
41--62%
42--38%
43--37%
44--54%
45--60%

AFV ive done elswhere

Dudemont, i think i misunderstood your query as to avgas, ive believed your refering to its advantage in performance, but its also possible you mean that the amount sent was significant in terms of allowing training and combat ops to be performed.

try here: http://www.wargamer.com/rtm/llease.htm
or:http://members.tripod.com/~Sturmvogel/WarEcon.html

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
EDIT, Note ive typed in the tables directly from isbn 0-7230-0939-2, which is packed with stats, however it is apparant that a typo in the print run mistatakes the year cycle.
 
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In response to sean9898


I don't think it's relevant. Drawing board planes are not going to be fighting in 1945. The air war is going to be fought with the same planes used in the war.

It’s a minor point really, but the relevance is there nonetheless since it shows that Soviet aircraft design was up to par with Allied design. That goes for WWII planes as well. The Yak-9 was an excellent fighter, and – as I mentioned – the Shturmovich proved to be the most successful tank-killer of the war.


The point is that until one side erodes enough fighters from the other side, tank killers and other tactical bombers are either going to be grounded, or destroyed. Refer to the Battle of Britain for the result of sending tactical bombers in daylight over contested air space.

During most of WWII tactical bombers operated in contested airspace. Anyway, if the Soviets couldn’t use their tac-bombers (and I’m sure they would try to), the Allies couldn’t either. That would place them at an even greater disadvantage.


The Soviets were unable to dominate the skies in the way the allies could during the late stages of the desert war, and over Europe.

Sorry, I gotta disagree strongly here. The Soviets did actually dominate the skies over Eastern Europe, when their counteroffensive started rolling.


Then why, in the name of God did the Germans continue to use them?

They didn’t. At least not in the scale they used to. The use of Ju-87’s in the later half of the war was very limited, since they were so vulnerable. But the Germans kept using them because they had no other choice. They never designed and produced a decent replacement in sufficient numbers, so there was just the Stuka left. Exactly like the Japanese kept using the outdated Zero fighter until the very end. They had no alternative.


They don't have to penetrate all the way to Moscow. I said before, withing range of a Mustang. The US air force had been taking catastrophic losses for 18 months over Germany, shouldn't we suppose that they will send escorted bombers to hit railway infrastructure since discovering that this was more effective than industrial bombing. The 8th airforce sustained "acceptable losses" which saner commanders might describe as catastrophic, would they not repeat this commitment in Russia?

Yes, they probably would. But Allied bombing didn’t really start to be effective before the Luftwaffe had been subdued. And the most decisive effect (and real purpose?) of US daylight bombing was to draw the Luftwaffe out to fight, so that it could be destroyed. That worked wonders, but it took a very long time.

The Allies would not have that time in the scenario we are discussing. And they would be facing a Red Airforce with a considerably greater fighter strength than the Luftwaffe had.


Then why did the Germans feel the need to protect their cities? Why have AA in Rostock and Dresden. Do you believe that Russia will not try to protect their citizens? Are communists less worried about civilian depopulation than fascists?

The Germans had to protect their cities, because their industry was placed there. Soviet industry was not placed within Allied bomber range, so the only reason to protect the cities would be to protect the inhabitants. Frankly, I don’t think Stalin would give a damn if they got killed. He would probably even be glad, since it would give his population a common cause and a common hated enemy: the Allies.


So, in the face of city firebombing you assume that Stalin will simply ignore it, not attempt to concentrate AA around known targets, and not divert any industrial or military personnel to the protection of Soviet citizens?

Yes. If I was a cold-hearted, calculating dictator, I would definitely do so. :)


Air warfare was not under the Hague convention of 1907. IIRC another convention in 1927 I think the Hague, did specifically outlaw city bombing, but was not ratified by any nation.

The closest to outlawing city attacks is a clause which limits naval bombardment, Hague 1907 Section IX: Those rules permitted the legal bombardment of workshops...plants useful to the enemy war effort...defended locations...undefended locations if the local authorities did not agree to remove all facilities of military production. So, by defending their cities with AA and flak Germany made them legal targets for Naval bombardment. If you wish to stretch Hague's naval clauses to air warfare, then stretch the exceptions as well.

Well, the US legal sources I’ve read claim that air warfare of WWII was governed under the same rules as ground warfare.

To come back to Dresden :) it was actually an "illegal" attack according to the naval bombardment clause you mention, since there were no facilities of military production and thus no legal targets.

Regards,

EoE

BTW: I’m offline in the weekend.
 
Originally posted by Agelastus

As I've said in previous threads on this subject, if the west could hold an initial Soviet offensive, or gain tactical surprise, they would have won in the end. All these posts for Russian war producti0n etc. ignore the fact that in 1944-45 the Russians were taking men out of the factories to maintain the combat strength of the Red Army-that's a sign of a war machine stretched to the absolute limit. They could only do it because the Germans were going down even faster, and with Allied war production effectively invulnerable to Soviet attack......well, you get the picture.

But what we are discussing is an Allied attack, not a Soviet though the latter probably was more likely and more "interesting" since it would actually give the Allies a fighting chance.

An Allied tactical surprise would not ensure victory, a strategic might, but a tactical one would just make the initial weeks of fighting against overwhelming numbers a bit easier.

Do you have any numbers/sources or anything else to backup your claim, that the Soviets took men out of the factories, or is it just a myth shaped by the fact that women got a place at the assembly line just as it happened in every other nation involved in the war?

Regards,

EoE
 
In response to swilhelm73


As for the Poles and Czechs, the Soviets started to round up members of the democratic resistance (as opposed to communist) almost as soon as they entered the respective areas. Further, the Poles fought a war against the Soviets in the 20s and were partially conquered by the Soviets in 39.

As for democracy, no they may not have much knowledge of it, but they did know about the millions Stalin had killed in the very very recent past.

The main Polish army was communist. While there may (or may not) have been a Polish rising after an Allied attack, the rebels would be up against strong Soviet and Polish forces. It would just be the Warsaw Rising repeated.

Besides, when the Poles actually protested in the late 40’s or early 50’s the Polish communist forces dealt quite quickly with them.

Besides, I doubt the Soviet population had any idea about the millions Stalin had killed. It wouldn’t exactly be announced in the Pravda, would it? :)


As for Poland though, if the Soviets aren't given time to execute/imprison all the democratic partisans, doesn't there activities combined with traditional anti-Russian sentiment push them into the western camp. And Britain and France did honor their alliance while the Soviets attacked...

I know I’m repeating myself :), but a Polish rising had very little chance of success against the Soviet and Polish forces present. Besides, Polish sentiments towards the Allies was at an all-time low, since they, rightly, felt betrayed by the sell-out to Stalin during... Jalta or Teheran?


Self determination and democracy for Eastern Europe - same as our stated goals in WWI and WWII. I honestly think the most likely snap in US/USSR relations occurs when Stalin says no to elections in Poland, not when Russian and American troops first meet.

Self determination and democracy for Eastern Europe were not stated war objectives for the US in WWI and WWII. If they were you have failed to reach those objectives and thus lost the war.

Anyway, those are political objectives, not military objectives. The latter are those that will ensure the defeat and surrender of an enemy and thus ensure that the political objectives can be achieved.

So, what would the military objectives of the Allied be? The Germans had reached Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad, and still the Soviet Union did not surrender...

Regards,

EoE
 
Originally posted by Emperor of Europe
It’s a minor point really, but the relevance is there nonetheless since it shows that Soviet aircraft design was up to par with Allied design. That goes for WWII planes as well. The Yak-9 was an excellent fighter, and – as I mentioned – the Shturmovich proved to be the most successful tank-killer of the war.
I do not doubt Soviet air designs to be the equal of allied. The Stumovich statistic is a little misleading as it had the most Panzer targets to destroy.
During most of WWII tactical bombers operated in contested airspace. Anyway, if the Soviets couldn’t use their tac-bombers (and I’m sure they would try to), the Allies couldn’t either. That would place them at an even greater disadvantage.
Not on the Western, or Desert Fronts during daylight. I agree the allies would not unleash their tank killers without superiority either, and yes that does lead to the sticky problem of either defending or counter attacking Russian tanks.
Sorry, I gotta disagree strongly here. The Soviets did actually dominate the skies over Eastern Europe, when their counteroffensive started rolling.
Do you have any recommendations for books concerning the air war over the eastern front?
When would you decide total air superiority to be gained in the east?
They didn’t. At least not in the scale they used to. The use of Ju-87’s in the later half of the war was very limited, since they were so vulnerable.
I think that puts Stuka pilot some way ahead of Uboat crew and Russian punishment battalion infantryman as possibly the worst branch of service in the war.
Yes, they probably would. But Allied bombing didn’t really start to be effective before the Luftwaffe had been subdued. And the most decisive effect (and real purpose?) of US daylight bombing was to draw the Luftwaffe out to fight, so that it could be destroyed. That worked wonders, but it took a very long time.
The problem with this interpretation is that the allies had no reason to attack rail infrastructure prior to Normandy. At the time when it was carried out the Luftwaffe had ceased to exist. So, can we speculate whether US daylight raids in 1943 would have been as effective against rail heads as they were against industrial targets. Does the total tonnage dropped * 3% success rate enable enough tons to disable the German rail network?

The timing of the destruction of Luftwaffe defense correlates to the introduction of Mustangs, so presumably Mustangs+Air Raids=reduction in Luftwaffe + increased bombing effectiveness. Could this not be replicated on the eastern front by the US air force beginning it's campaign against railways?
The Allies would not have that time in the scenario we are discussing. And they would be facing a Red Airforce with a considerably greater fighter strength than the Luftwaffe had.
Again, we have the problem of deciding the outcome of escorted daylight bombing and applying it to the Eastern Front. Probably an impossible task.
The Germans had to protect their cities, because their industry was placed there. Soviet industry was not placed within Allied bomber range, so the only reason to protect the cities would be to protect the inhabitants. Frankly, I don’t think Stalin would give a damn if they got killed. He would probably even be glad, since it would give his population a common cause and a common hated enemy: the Allies.
Rostock and Lubeck had no industrial value to the war effort, neither did Dresden. They were all defended by AA and Luftwaffe. Had Germany chosen to only defend their industrial centers then they could have concentrated even more firepower on those targets while ignoring unimportant population centers.
Yes. If I was a cold-hearted, calculating dictator, I would definitely do so. :)
But would your people stand for it? This is not the same as shooting people trying to flee Moscow, this is the callous disregard for your entire urban population.
Well, the US legal sources I’ve read claim that air warfare of WWII was governed under the same rules as ground warfare.

To come back to Dresden :) it was actually an "illegal" attack according to the naval bombardment clause you mention, since there were no facilities of military production and thus no legal targets.
Check Hague 1927 XI; Defended targets may be attacked. The placement of a single AA batery, or a single platoon of soldiers in Dresden is enough to allow Naval bombardment.

Hague does not mention aircraft, thus speculation can be made as to whether air attack might be an extension of the naval bombardment or ground attack clauses. However, had the powers wanted to outlaw strategic bombing, they would have ratified the 1927?? treaty which expressly contained those provisions.

Technically it was not until Protocol I of 1977 that indiscriminate area bombing was legally prohibited.

Enjoy the weekend :cool:
 
Following this with intrest and have the time to add a bit.

Ju87 were the flying art for the tactical precepts that the axis used, ftrs clear the skies at a local level, then the 87 were used as close support of dround action. Ju88, He111 Do17 provided interdiction against other targets(comms centres, rear area etc), coverd by the Bf110.

As late as Kursk the same methods were still in use with only marginal changes in equipments(Hs 129, Fw 190, by this time the Lutwaffe was able to dominate areas of the battlefield where offensive action was taking place only by concentrating its assets, leaving the sov to control the quite areas, still following the tried and tested method of a surprise first strike to get the game of to a good start.

This they partialy achieved at Kursk, in support of 4 Pnz Army(in the South) the luftwaffe caught the approaching sov 2 Air Army on an attempt to knock out german air fields at the outset of the battle, 109 an 190s pounced in what was the largest aerial battle of the Ostfront over 500 aircraft were involved at one time, russian losses were grevous, which allowed air superioroty for the 4 Pnzr for the first day. Also during(7 July) kursk the germans for the first time in history completly stopped and destroyed(50 in the first attack) an armoured large scale attack( 2 Gd Tank Corps) by the use of air power alone. However the Kursk casualties to dive bombers were so sever that their role was redifined after Kursk.

Hannibal
 
Damn firewalls!!

The site is “categorised by sex”!?!

Still, so was The Times until we got it unblocked, and the Burma Star site is “categorised by gambling” (haven’t had the nerve to ask IT to unblock that!)

Will try it from home.
 
Originally posted by Emperor of Europe


But what we are discussing is an Allied attack, not a Soviet though the latter probably was more likely and more "interesting" since it would actually give the Allies a fighting chance.

An Allied tactical surprise would not ensure victory, a strategic might, but a tactical one would just make the initial weeks of fighting against overwhelming numbers a bit easier.

Do you have any numbers/sources or anything else to backup your claim, that the Soviets took men out of the factories, or is it just a myth shaped by the fact that women got a place at the assembly line just as it happened in every other nation involved in the war?

Regards,

EoE

Well, since the only logical reaction for the Soviets given a western attack, considering how they are organised, is a massive counter-offensive, your objection doesn't have much of a leg to stand on. Particularly as this offensive is the "make-or-break" moment for the Soviets in my position.

Secondly, given the situation, either side would almost assuredly achieve strategic surprise-I don't believe the west really expected a Soviet attack any more than the Soviets really expected a western attack-so tactical surprise is really all we can consider here. You'll note I only mentioned a drive as far as the Vistula in an earlier post.

As for the sources for my claim re. Russian manpower, the passage I've read actually says "We now discover that the Russians ran out of men and women in 1944, and had to take large numbers of personnel from the factories to fill the ranks. Only because Germany was going down faster could Russia afford to do this." As for the original source I'm not 100% sure, but I suspect it's A Seaton "The Russo-German War, 1941-1945"-which, unfortunately, is out of print! Actually, I'm not actually 50% sure of the source-oops.
 
Originally posted by Emperor of Europe
The main Polish army was communist. While there may (or may not) have been a Polish rising after an Allied attack, the rebels would be up against strong Soviet and Polish forces. It would just be the Warsaw Rising repeated.

Besides, when the Poles actually protested in the late 40’s or early 50’s the Polish communist forces dealt quite quickly with them.

Well first of all, a signficant anti-Soviet partisan force would cause a world of hurt for Soviet units trying to fight there even if the majority of the populace supported them. Remember Vietnam?

Given time and lack of outside support partisans can be defeated - but they prove hard to defeat when they have an independent source of supply: Vietnam - USSR, Spain - UK, Afghanistan - US, etc

In actual history the anti-communists did have at least temporary success against the Soviets in Eastern Europe later on...what if the Soviets for some reason couldn't send large numbers of troops just to occupy Hungary and Czechoslovakia?

Originally posted by Emperor of Europe
Besides, I doubt the Soviet population had any idea about the millions Stalin had killed. It wouldn’t exactly be announced in the Pravda, would it? :)

Makes the name Pravda even more ironic, huh?

Well, in enthically Russian areas probably not. Even if they did they probably would not care - they weren't Stalin primary target. But the killing in the western provinces was too extreme to not notice and in the far East a good deal of the people there were forcibally shipped from the west. I've read that Italy and Germany both knew about Stalin murders and I'd be shocked if Poland did not.

The west did not know, but primarily due to journalists either willingly deceived or on Stalin's payroll. Duranty comes to mind...

Originally posted by Emperor of Europe
I know I’m repeating myself :), but a Polish rising had very little chance of success against the Soviet and Polish forces present. Besides, Polish sentiments towards the Allies was at an all-time low, since they, rightly, felt betrayed by the sell-out to Stalin during... Jalta or Teheran?

I think the big sell out was at Yalta. Though even then Stalin agreed to hold elections, right?

How would the Poles be happier with the Russians than with the allies, btw? Russia after all fought a war with them in 39 - and the communists in Poland were told not to bother the Germans until the Germans sneak attacked Russia...maybe you are right but this would suprise me...

Originally posted by Emperor of Europe
Self determination and democracy for Eastern Europe were not stated war objectives for the US in WWI and WWII. If they were you have failed to reach those objectives and thus lost the war.

Well I would point you to Wilson's 14 points in WWI and the reason France and Britain declared war on Germany in 1939...

Originally posted by Emperor of Europe
Anyway, those are political objectives, not military objectives. The latter are those that will ensure the defeat and surrender of an enemy and thus ensure that the political objectives can be achieved.

So, what would the military objectives of the Allied be? The Germans had reached Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad, and still the Soviet Union did not surrender...

But the Germans lost all three of those battles - of course the Soviets would not surrender! Further the Germans were surprised by the Soviet winter offensives and made a number of mistakes in their strategic planning in regards to holding fast vs ordered retreat.

Now, what if the allies had Guderian and Mannstein (both survived the war?) as advisors on Russian tactics?

As for war aims I'm guessing a push to the theoritical Ukranian/Russian border and the destruction of a good deal of the Soviet army.

The Soviets may not be forced to surrender, but if the allies can make it that far my guess is that American Industrial might has already decided the war. Sure the supply situation is difficult but that is were the allies were strongest.

Of course how the allies get enough troops together to start the fight with the USSR is the toughest call. We demobilized almost right after Germany's surrender...
 
Originally posted by Emperor of Europe

The main Polish army was communist. While there may (or may not) have been a Polish rising after an Allied attack, the rebels would be up against strong Soviet and Polish forces. It would just be the Warsaw Rising repeated.

Besides, when the Poles actually protested in the late 40’s or early 50’s the Polish communist forces dealt quite quickly with them.

Besides, I doubt the Soviet population had any idea about the millions Stalin had killed. It wouldn’t exactly be announced in the Pravda, would it? :)

I know I’m repeating myself :), but a Polish rising had very little chance of success against the Soviet and Polish forces present. Besides, Polish sentiments towards the Allies was at an all-time low, since they, rightly, felt betrayed by the sell-out to Stalin during... Jalta or Teheran?

Eh, first you say that people didn't know '30 famine but knew of Jalta and Teheran...
The opposite is true, famine hapenned HERE, so people knew it by experience, by stories told. Only communists believed what was written in Pravda. And believe me, there weren't many communist in Poland in '40. There were large Polish army fighting alongside Soviet, but it was only because they hadn't any choice. Yes, some felt betrayed by Western Allies, but that doesn't mean that they loved Soviets. Especially after the liberation, which in fact was more like conquest.
Though Polish Home Army suffered very heavy losses during "Storm" plan (Warsaw uprising mainly-yes, we all know that Soviets watched Warsaw population slaugter from right bank of Vistula), it was still strong force, effectively allied with the West. This, combined with allied airforce makes supplying Soviet armies in Germany almost impossible, since they relied mainly on rail transport, easy to cripple.

Please, don't say anything more about situation in Poland, you clearly have no idea what are you speaking of:p


;)
 
If you want German resources (Generals and soldiers "trained" against Soviet forrces, remaining industry capacity, advanced arms designs) you can't impose a harsh peace which leads to an interesting question: will the Japanese fight on if they see they can have peace with "unconditional surrender" and still will get off relatively good? A war against the soviet forces will definately cost manpower which the US isn't really willing to sacrifice. The Japanese on the other hand might want to buy themselves out of this war to keep at least their older possessions on the continent and still have an army that is able to fight. Given the US does what they always do (send guns and let others do the actual work) This might eb an option. Trueman or FDR if he still is alive by the time of the soviet conflict has both broken Japanese aggression and did not need to use the bomb which means they still have them and after the USSR is defeated what use could the bomb be anyway?
 
The Japanese are perhaps more likely to hook up with the Soviets in a scenario where a west-east conflict breaks out before their surrender-they still have a neutrality pact with the Soviets, and if they were allied with the Soviet Union they could free up almost 800000 men for operations elsewhere. From the Soviet point of view this would be a bargain-they open up a direct supply line to their Communist proteges in China, the Nationalists (American Allies) will be forced to "scream" for help, and the Japanese, with a new ally, are far more likely to fight on to the bitter end. All in all a very cost-effective diversion. Although the Japanese had very little time for Communists, WWII had already shown how easily such "strange bedfellows" could be forced to make an Alliance.
 
This isn't going to work.

a) The USSR support the Nationalists, not the Communists.

b) Japan's problem isn't manpower but industry, or lack thereof. They can't even use their spare industry because raw amterials have to be shipped through highly dangerous (read: a lot of enemy) waters.

c) Japan and USSR conetsted for certain terrains and Japan still does today.
 
Originally posted by SoleSurvivor
This isn't going to work.

a) The USSR support the Nationalists, not the Communists.

b) Japan's problem isn't manpower but industry, or lack thereof. They can't even use their spare industry because raw amterials have to be shipped through highly dangerous (read: a lot of enemy) waters.

c) Japan and USSR conetsted for certain terrains and Japan still does today.

(a) USSR support for the Nationalists almost completely ended in the 1920s, with the rise of Chiang Kai-Shek. Certainly by the period we are discussing the Nationalists were American supported, not Soviet.

(b) The army in Manchuria may be poorly equipped, but it is equipped. As to raw materials some could be got from Russia. But that's not the point-a Japan encouraged to fight on forces the Americans to conduct operations "Coronet" and "Olympic", which is a pretty major diversion of force from killing Soviets-as is any support the USA is forced to send to the nationalists in China.

(c) True-so what? What's more important in this scenario-defeating the West or siezing southern Sakhalin and the Kuriles, which you might be able to demand from Japan following a Soviet victory as the price of any support given.