Werewolf CXIII : The Springtime of Nations

[drxav]

If randakar was a villager, than we know that he wasn't acting in concert with anyone, and it really was just a mind-blowingly STUPID move on randakar's part. We can then debate why he chose to state publically that he was brutal, thereby inviting all of the attention that ended up with the seer dead.

IF Randakar is just a villager, then his play to this point has been very noobish. I certainly don't consider randakar to be a noob...do you?

He made a decision. Whatever the result that decision wasn't a noobish decision. At certain points you need to act fast and have no time to think. What he did was far from noobish. The noobish thing to do would've been to just wait and see what happens, eventually letting the priest die.

On one hand he's got someone about to be lynched telling him 1 minute before deadline that he's the priest and giving him a scan list.
On the other hand he's got an unknown player (Kiwi).

Put yourself in his position, what do you do? Do you let the priest get killed for an hypothetical villager, or do you risk killing a villager to save an hypothetical priest?

I think you over-thought that thing way too much. Randy didn't know Kiwi was the seer, he just acted in a hurry, he had to take a decision in a very short lapse of time and he did what he did. That's the reason he posted his order in the thread instead of quietly sending it to the GM. That's one of the reasons he didn't put his vote on Kiwi, risking his leader order to be invalid.

There are just much much more efficient and subtle ways to act in concert with someone, I don't think Randy would be that obvious.

 

[esemesas]

But... The thing with the brutal strikes me as odd. Randakar is usually one of the calmest players around, I've never seen him so vocal on the very first day. Conversations, analysis on the second, third or fourth day, yes, that's usual, but day 1(well, night 0 actually) is just unlike him.

Also, he has said quite a few times that he just can't do a good wolfie...

 

[TheExecuter]

He made a decision. Whatever the result that decision wasn't a noobish decision. At certain points you need to act fast and have no time to think. What he did was far from noobish. The noobish thing to do would've been to just wait and see what happens, eventually letting the priest die.

So, he reacts to a scan list he can't verify? What are the odds that the scan list is fake? I'd say pretty high, especially since, given the nature of randakar's stated PMs to the 'in danger candidates' he is practically ADVERTISING to be the leader, or at least performing an AOK like vote switch.

On one hand he's got someone about to be lynched telling him 1 minute before deadline that he's the priest and giving him a scan list.
On the other hand he's got an unknown player (Kiwi).

Put yourself in his position, what do you do? Do you let the priest get killed for an hypothetical villager, or do you risk killing a villager to save an hypothetical priest?

At that point I have TWO unknown people...ONE of whom gave me a scan list, authenticity unknown, and the other whom you KNOW (or at least suspect, Kiwi's nationality is a well known fact here) is asleep.

This does not mean you should rush off and protect the priest...especially by TRUSTING the scan-list...unless you are inexperienced...which randakar is not.

I think you over-thought that thing way too much. Randy didn't know Kiwi was the seer, he just acted in a hurry, he had to take a decision in a very short lapse of time and he did what he did. That's the reason he posted his order in the thread instead of quietly sending it to the GM. That's one of the reasons he didn't put his vote on Kiwi, risking his leader order to be invalid.

There are just much much more efficient and subtle ways to act in concert with someone, I don't think Randy would be that obvious.

Possibly. I just don't see how 'randakar made an honest mistake by rushing' is a better fit to the story than 'randakar made a smart wolf play to get rid of the seer.'

It all just smells fishy to me. He wants EVERYONE to know he is brutal, so that people will scan him. Why? Leader trait? This just makes him a prime target for the wolves (and also is a great in for a paranoid trait). He even remarks (post #371):

*shrug* I was half expecting to get hunted all day long, to be honest. Nothing to do with the leader switch.

Which would make sense with his fear that the wolves would know him as not a member of their pack, and hunt him early.

Or does it? Why, if randakar was so trusting with the scan list from the supposed priest...is he so not trusting of the series of PMs that he has posted publically? Was his fear that a hunter would shoot him first? If so, why was this a fear? Why make public the PMs in the first place? Neither party admits to anything in the PMs, although there are hints.

Why the discrepancy in trust between PMs?

There are too many questions just to leave randakar alive. We need to know his allegiance, and the only way to do so is to kill him. If he was a villager, we can surmise that some of what he told us was correct. If he was a wolf...then we have more data to work on.

The wolves are going to try to obfuscate the issue as much as possible to keep us away from lynching people who have taken public actions. Without the seer, we are going to need as much data on the principle actors in this day 1 debacle as soon as possible. Unless we lynch him, all of these questions will never be resolved.

Vote Randakar!!!

 

[drxav]

I give up.

When the lynch result comes out Randy is a brutal villager, you'll just realize how wrong you were.

You chose to believe one thing and one thing only, and every little element that goes your way is a proof. You still didn't answer to that very simple question: why wouldn't Randy just hunt Kiwi, instead of creating all this fuss?

But nevermind that. I suppose you're just enraged he outed you as a hunter and you can't protect yourself and thus you will get hunted sooner or later.

But well, go ahead. I reckon you've placed your hunt order on Randy anyways so even if he isn't lynched he'll die. Fine.

Let's screw things up even more.

 

[Adamus]

With no seer we need answers, even you drxav can appreciate that. This is our only lead and only the wolves would stop us taking it.

Randakar should be lynched for the sake of some solid analysis for after all this is werewolf!

 

[snoopdogg]

Don't be ridiculous. You will get no information from lynching Randy.

Here's the result: you lynch Randy the villager.

What now?

Make hypothesis.

This.
I don't have much time, the game according to snoopdogg: Randy is a villager. drxav is a very likely priest, and more credible than LS' source, who also could be the priest. Neither one of them are remotely reasonable lynches. Pick your damn targets elsewhere, because snoopdogg said so.

Unvote Lord Strange. Vote esemesas.

 

[EUROO7]

Help me, Lord Strange. You're my only hope.

 

[TheExecuter]

I give up.

When the lynch result comes out Randy is a brutal villager, you'll just realize how wrong you were.

I agree. And if he is a brutal villager, then he can brutalize me and y'all can analyze the heck out of the fallout. But if the lynch result comes out that Randy is a paranoid wolf, then I'll be right, and we can start looking at the day 1 data and catch some wolves.

You chose to believe one thing and one thing only, and every little element that goes your way is a proof. You still didn't answer to that very simple question: why wouldn't Randy just hunt Kiwi, instead of creating all this fuss?

You bring up a good point on the hunt aspect...something I hadn't considered. Could randy be a paranoid cultist....? Would that even make sense?

But nevermind that. I suppose you're just enraged he outed you as a hunter and you can't protect yourself and thus you will get hunted sooner or later.

This makes no sense. Has randy outed me as a hunter? Read the PMs, they are exactly what we discussed. Do I claim traits? Does he? For an 'outing' its very much conjecture and 'feel.'

For that matter, why did randakar posts the PMs? What benefit would they serve to a brutal villager?

But well, go ahead. I reckon you've placed your hunt order on Randy anyways so even if he isn't lynched he'll die. Fine.

Let's screw things up even more.

IF I were a hunter, why would I shoot someone I wasn't absolutely sure was a wolf?

My point in running up randy is to get more information for the village, not some personal vendetta, as you seem to want to portray it. I do not have the luxury of perfect information, and thus, my actions are tempered by the knowledge that anyone of the people I am talking to have a significant probability of lying.

 

[Lord Strange]

Oh I wish I could EURO. But you went beyond saving many years ago.

 

[drxav]

You bring up a good point on the hunt aspect...something I hadn't considered. Could randy be a paranoid cultist....? Would that even make sense?

If Randy is a paranoid cultist then your entire argumentation falls appart.

He couldn't plan this with his friends.

He couldn't make sure Kiwi would get half the votes of me.

He just made a arse out of himself while he could've gone for a very simple plan.

At some point Kiwi, me and Sedracus were tied. He could've made the game lean towards Kiwi easily.

Being a cultist getting the seer leader-lynched here's another thing he could do as well: claim his cultist status, call for all cultists to contact him and get everybody together, wolves, sorcerer and cultists. Then he'd have in just one turn: killed the seer, found the priest, and formed the IJL.

But he doesn't. Is he such a bad player? I don't think so.

 

[EUROO7]

Oh I wish I could EURO. But you went beyond saving many years ago.

I said help, not save, you effete aristo...

 

[TheExecuter]

If Randy is a paranoid cultist then your entire argumentation falls appart.

He couldn't plan this with his friends.

He couldn't make sure Kiwi would get half the votes of me.

He just made a arse out of himself while he could've gone for a very simple plan.

At some point Kiwi, me and Sedracus were tied. He could've made the game lean towards Kiwi easily.

Being a cultist getting the seer leader-lynched here's another thing he could do as well: claim his cultist status, call for all cultists to contact him and get everybody together, wolves, sorcerer and cultists. Then he'd have in just one turn: killed the seer, found the priest, and formed the IJL.

But he doesn't. Is he such a bad player? I don't think so.

Hmmm....yes. Needs more thought.

For now, my vote stays where it is. I still think knowing what side randakar is on gives the village the most information.

 

[Rysz]

Both drxav and randakar are playing a high game. Ofcourse such a rescue action would demand explanation. It would be known that drxav would be outed as a priest, and he would be found dead soon, especially with the GA already dead.

Why take the risk? Why give your leader trait for it, knowing that often the next would be a baddie.

And now the claim of another (or the real, or a fake) priest. Point is that with the seer dead, we really can't afford to take a gamble.

Lynching drxav is not an option.

Lynching randakar is, and more informatino will be gained by lynching a random other person.

Vote Randakar

 

[drxav]

I'm lacking the apprentice PMs. Don't be shy people, we need to secure the succession.

 

[randakar]

The seer dies - win.
He loses his leader trait - for killing the seer? Hell yes, win.

What you don't realize is that I was around even before Kiwi posted his tiebreaker vote. Sedracus can attest to that. And if I had voted Kiwi at that point (10 minutes prior to the deadline) Kiwi would have been dead without me needing to use any traits.

Why don't we vote Randakar?

Because a) I'm a goodie and b) I will kill you if you lynch me today. Or I'll leave the brutal order stand and just lynch whoever voted me last.
Vote me if you dare. It won't be good for your health.

When he dies, then we will know if he was good or bad...and all this talk about drxav and Lord Strange can be analyzed in the light of more data?

The priests can prove themselves. When drxav turns out to actually be bad feel free to string me up. By then the fail has become so strong I might as well give up.
Until then I -will- fight you.

I think you over-thought that thing way too much. Randy didn't know Kiwi was the seer, he just acted in a hurry, he had to take a decision in a very short lapse of time and he did what he did. That's the reason he posted his order in the thread instead of quietly sending it to the GM. That's one of the reasons he didn't put his vote on Kiwi, risking his leader order to be invalid.

This.
Except that the reason for posting that order publicly was rather more simple: It would become public at update time -anyway-.

Also, he has said quite a few times that he just can't do a good wolfie...

I play conservatively as a wolf. Too quietly, even.
People who know me can pick up on that.
People who don't, however..

But nevermind that. I suppose you're just enraged he outed you as a hunter and you can't protect yourself and thus you will get hunted sooner or later.

There is a much simpler explanation: He's a wolf.

You bring up a good point on the hunt aspect...something I hadn't considered. Could randy be a paranoid cultist....? Would that even make sense?

Not with drxav's priest scan clearing me of that...

For that matter, why did randakar posts the PMs? What benefit would they serve to a brutal villager?

A baddy wouldn't post those PM's, he'd keep them close and mindful of the fact that he has a potential ally in the form of TE the cultist / wolf / what have you.

My point in running up randy is to get more information for the village, not some personal vendetta, as you seem to want to portray it.

Bull. Your point in running up randy is to attempt and murder me. More information for the village? You have -great- information on me in the form of what happened yesterday. There is absolutely zero need to run me up "for information".

 

[johho888]

I really can't see what lynching randakar would net us even if he was found to be a baddie which I don't think he is.

I think that Lord Strange's claim of priesthood is stronger than drxav but we can't afford to lose a priest so I'm willing to wait a day or two to see which of the priests that will find us a cultist to lynch.

I'm getting baddie vibes from TheExecuter - not at all sure I buy his "hunter" - but he is one of the players that always gives me baddie vibes regardless of roles.

And I'm off to a hockey match and need to vote now in case I'm not home by deadline so

vote esemesas

 

[TheExecuter]

A baddy wouldn't post those PM's, he'd keep them close and mindful of the fact that he has a potential ally in the form of TE the cultist / wolf / what have you.

Really? Please point to the part in the PMs where I give you anything regarding my role, or my traits...

What does your 'outing' really consist of, randakar? You keep saying I'm a wolf...but what do you have to show that you are right?

Bull. Your point in running up randy is to attempt and murder me. More information for the village? You have -great- information on me in the form of what happened yesterday. There is absolutely zero need to run me up "for information".

It is entirely possible for the leader to be non-villager. I agree that we have great information on you in the form of what happened yesterday...you leaderlynched the seer. That, in and of itself, ought to make you a prime suspect for lynching today. The bottom line is that we need to know what side you are on.

Oh, and please, rather than waste your brutal on some random person who votes you last...put it on me. If you die, I will thoroughly deserve being brutalized at your hand.

 

[Sedracus]

What you don't realize is that I was around even before Kiwi posted his tiebreaker vote. Sedracus can attest to that. And if I had voted Kiwi at that point (10 minutes prior to the deadline) Kiwi would have been dead without me needing to use any traits.

Correct. He'd been on for a few hours.

 

[walrus]

What does your 'outing' really consist of, randakar? You keep saying I'm a wolf...but what do you have to show that you are right?

When wolves kill people, there is blood. Blood is red. Your avatar has red in it. Therefore you must be associated with the wolves somehow.

No arguments.

Unvote Randakar
Vote TheExecutor

 

[TheExecuter]

when wolves kill people, there is blood. Blood is red. Your avatar has red in it. Therefore you must be associated with the wolves somehow.

No arguments.

unvote randakar
vote theexecutor

:d