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Tamius was not formerly-cursed, he was just cursed, so that's not a cursed no-hunt.
Shit, made some long post and then I did something wrong....
What I wanted to say was that although it might not have been a true crovax, as we all know there are two cursed players at least (because they've died, and we have that information), and marty meant that by "hit", it must be said that his choice of word is poor. And he misses two blessed players completely, which would seem to indicate he did not get his information fromt he first page, as I just did, but from somewhere else. But he would only have that information if the hunt order was indeed so that Yellow hunted both nights 2 and 5, but that is not necessarily the case. Because we have an uneven wolf setup, it might be that the hunt nights have been unevenly as well, something like red-orange-yellow-orange.
That would give the following interesting possibility:
0: red
1: orange
2: yellow
3: orange
4: red
5: orange (dead)
6: yellow (dead), backup-hunt red?
7: red
That would make Mr. G cursed at night 2 and would explain the no-hunt night 5 (all those 4 wolves I would think are likely to not think about setting up a backup order). That would suggest that the Red pack does have experienced players who do think about setting up a backup order.
But for now I think the likelihood of marty crovaxing is slightly bigger. (also because I do think that marty would think about setting up a backup hunt order)
Vote marty99
What I wanted to say was that although it might not have been a true crovax, as we all know there are two cursed players at least (because they've died, and we have that information), and marty meant that by "hit", it must be said that his choice of word is poor. And he misses two blessed players completely, which would seem to indicate he did not get his information fromt he first page, as I just did, but from somewhere else. But he would only have that information if the hunt order was indeed so that Yellow hunted both nights 2 and 5, but that is not necessarily the case. Because we have an uneven wolf setup, it might be that the hunt nights have been unevenly as well, something like red-orange-yellow-orange.
That would give the following interesting possibility:
0: red
1: orange
2: yellow
3: orange
4: red
5: orange (dead)
6: yellow (dead), backup-hunt red?
7: red
That would make Mr. G cursed at night 2 and would explain the no-hunt night 5 (all those 4 wolves I would think are likely to not think about setting up a backup order). That would suggest that the Red pack does have experienced players who do think about setting up a backup order.
But for now I think the likelihood of marty crovaxing is slightly bigger. (also because I do think that marty would think about setting up a backup hunt order)
Vote marty99
I don't think marty is the type to 'crovax'. Really.
But the size of this bandwagon coming out of absolutely nowhere on someone I find more than a little hard to read, this late in the game?
I call shenanigans.
Vote marty99
But the size of this bandwagon coming out of absolutely nowhere on someone I find more than a little hard to read, this late in the game?
I call shenanigans.
Vote marty99
Please note that update tonight probably will be delayed for a while. And that no votecount will be provided after 14.00 GMT.
We've seen two people so far who were cursed at the start, whereas we have not seen any blesseds - therefore the next no-hunt is statistically more likely to be a hit on a blessed person than a hit on a cursed person. What's so hard to understand about that? I can't believe people are actually voting me on this.
I am not surprised people are voting you because of that. It saves energy on thinking.
Since there is not a lot to go on, people grasp at straws and jump on the first probable argument there is.
Hmmm, it appears I made a mistake. Night 6 was the night the probably last yellow wofl died. Not the night that would have been their hunt-night but was robbed due to their last one dying. Therefore the posibility above is not possible nonetheless.
That makes it even more likely that yellow had the two no-hunt nights at 2 and 5. Since yellow is dead, that would make it impossible for marty to be a member of that pack, and hence have even knowledge about the cursed hunts.
Therefore no crovax.
Unvote marty99
Interesting though how easy the bandwagon grew, and nobody spotted the mistake.
And why does Marty again think there have been no blessed ones so far?
That makes it even more likely that yellow had the two no-hunt nights at 2 and 5. Since yellow is dead, that would make it impossible for marty to be a member of that pack, and hence have even knowledge about the cursed hunts.
Therefore no crovax.
Unvote marty99
Interesting though how easy the bandwagon grew, and nobody spotted the mistake.
And why does Marty again think there have been no blessed ones so far?
It's not a probably argument, it's blatantly falseI am not surprised people are voting you because of that. It saves energy on thinking.
Since there is not a lot to go on, people grasp at straws and jump on the first probable argument there is.
There are two dead curseds, that can be seen from the first post.
We haven't seen any dead people who had the blessed trait (I think? Pretty sure I double-checked the first page a couple of times EDIT: Checked again. There are no dead blesseds or formerly blesseds) whereas we have seen two dead people who had the cursed trait (or used to, it makes no difference.) That means, going by a 1:1 blessed:cursed ratio, there are more people who started with the blessed trait still in the game than people with the cursed trait. Therefore the next no-hunt night is more likely to be a blessed hit than a cursed hit. I can't spell it out any clearer than that.
No. That's an honest mistake. No reason for lynch or bandwagon. I unvoted you already.
As trespoe saved me and i am a villager i must conclude thst he must be a goodie also, so i shall too
vote Gigau
vote Gigau
I guess I'll vote gigau for self-preservation, if nothing else.
Unvote Falc Vote gigau
Unvote Falc Vote gigau
Hmm Gigau's record does look dodgey. A number of Votes on unknowns but He did help lynch two wolves. But that doesn't stop him being a red Wolf or simply turning on his pack mates for his own gain.
Vote Gigau
Vote Gigau
So basically we have Gigau and Marty today or what? And Marty being run up because... he made a half-assed attempt at a crovax? Not buying it.
Vote gigau
Until I see a votecount giving me alternatives.
Vote gigau
Until I see a votecount giving me alternatives.
Actually, scratch that. Do we have any idea who is actually in the JL know? Because from what I've seen so far we have trespoe, HC, AVN and Slinky, all villagers?
I'd say the people blindly jumping on marty are quite suspect actually. We have Randy "I call shenanigans", Falc "I call crovax where there actually isn't one", plus HC and AVN who we possibly can't touch.
Unvote gigau
Vote Falc
Because we need more options than gigau, no matter how good of a target he is.
I'd say the people blindly jumping on marty are quite suspect actually. We have Randy "I call shenanigans", Falc "I call crovax where there actually isn't one", plus HC and AVN who we possibly can't touch.
Unvote gigau
Vote Falc
Because we need more options than gigau, no matter how good of a target he is.
