There is a rumor this game is still live. shhhh keep it on the down low.
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Feels like the general consensus, wouldn't you say? We have that whole business with tonka's PMs and, well... Kiwi was offline and I didn't hunt tonka. Leaves you or EURO.
Here's a rough summary of the game so far, as I see it.
gliomarto 3: johho, falc, the split
johho 3: snoopdogg, gliomarto, esemesas
esemesas 3: capt kiwi, najs, euro
snoopdogg 3: marty, rascar, panzer
the split 1: aeden
rascar 1: tonka
Panzer was voting Snoopdogg. He switched off very quickly as the post shows, but I'm trying to figure out if he would play that fast and loose with a packmate's life. I mean, his vote catapulted snoop into the lead. Something tells me he probably wouldn't. I'm chalking this down as slightly in snoopdogg's favour.
The count after:
gliomarto 4: johho, falc, the split, panzer
johho 3: snoopdogg, gliomarto, esemesas
esemesas 3: capt kiwi, najs, euro
snoopdogg 2: marty, rascar
the split 1: aeden
rascar 1: tonka
This implicated heavily johho and esemesas. Fortunately for us, johho was hunted, quite a poor hunt by the wolves which I hope to dwell a bit more on later. For now, ese looks the most suspicious of anyone so far.
That's all of day 1 I will look at for now. As certain things become apparent later I may go back to focus on certain people/relationships, but I'm not going to go through every single post.
Day 2
I cast the first vote on Panzer, getting the ball rolling. I didn't write any real reasoning behind it though, can't remember if I had any at all. Najs follows my vote up, this time pointing out his suspicious activity around the deadline, which only in hindsight I've realised and is covered above.
Some other votes occur, then THE_SPLIT joins the vote, again casting suspicion on Panzer.
Snoopdogg switches to Panzer, then weirdly switches off as soon as another comes onto Commader, from EUROO7. Snoopdogg later switches back, but only after tonka puts Panzer out in front. Normally, this is very suspicious behaviour, and snoop goes up a bit here. Yet I still don't think he plays this that way as a wolf, but I HAVE to mark him up a little because I can't just ignore evidence.
Then this shit happens...
If only I had read this before (never bothered to) I would have realised Falc and Aedan do not go well at all together. I would also see how much more suspicious Falc is. He basically led the charge to save Panzer.
Panzer's gambit at the end, turned out to be a gambit, and well played to him. But I did wonder, if that were true, that he might have had someone whispering in his ear, an éminence grise, if you will, telling him that it made sense to frame aedan for another day.
Could that have been Falc? If it was, he made some serious multiple chessmaster type shit moves that day. He really went all out. Didn't save Panzer, but he recouped some losses in losing us a day convincing people to vote aedan.
The last thing to consider is EURO's switch, what did he mean by it. He switched to Panzer after he was already dead. Was it to gain credibility? What was the motive? Can't fathom it.
Anyway, PanzerWolf is lynched and tonkatoy5 is hunted, which on the face of it is a very poor hunt as tonkatoy had no hand in lynching a wolf. EURO and Tonka both start boasting profusely for some reason, which isn't immediately clear because by and large they voted in favour of the known wolf.
Kiwi then reveals the pms. EURO tries to act as if he somehow knew a) tonka wasn't the seer and b) tonkatoy would, not being the seer, somehow have the initiative to pass on those pms (unless they had been co-ordinating secretly, but I see no evidence of that in the thread). I think there's a decent chance EURO did not intend things to work out that way, there were simply too many variables. Perhaps he was a wolf fishing for the seer, or he genuinely thought tonka was one. Hard to know. EUROO7 will continue to tell us it was part of the Masterplan, of course. I'd say that's more likely than not at this stage.
Then I post the first analysis of the pms. Just going to quote them because I can't be bothered writing it out again.
So for now, Falc is still the big suspect from all this.
Yesterday didn't yield much as we didn't get a wolf. Plenty to analyse, of course, but it will all be hypothetical until we get the second. No time for me to do pack possibilities right now.
The players left alive, in order of most cleared:
Very Unlikely wolves (this is the strongest security we can have with only one wolf dead)
THE_SPLIT:
Cast a crucial vote on Panzer to kill him. Didn't let off in all the crazy vote-switching.
Marty99:
Started the vote on Panzer and never got off. On the very rare occasions where I vote a packmate, I'm always online later to monitor the situation and see do I stick or twist. This time, after I voted I went offline.
Najs:
Normally Najs would be more cleared than me or THE_SPLIT, but the slight taint of that pm hangs over him. I'm still pretty confident he's a villager, just a tiny shadow hanging over him.
The next batch have nothing to clear them whatsoever, but also not much incriminating, or else the evidence is too muddled and hypothetical to say for sure:
EUROO7:
I just don't think he's a wolf. But on the other hand, he could easily be one. I just have the best vibe about him relative to everyone else.
Snoopdogg:
Tend to think he's innocent at the moment*, but his vote record is pretty suspect.
Capt. Kiwi:
Probably didn't hunt tonka because of that pm, although it's possible he was online. He usually isn't, but he was online shortly after the first deadline. Could be lying to us, not I'm not sure he would even do that. Him and Falc make a plausible partnership. They've made noises against each other, but generall haven't endangered each other. Until today, when it's clear Falc is going to be lynched anyway, Kiwi votes him.
Esemesas:
Has been flying very low under the radar. It's very hard even to find out where his votes are in the thread. Has a pretty poor vote record. However, does not go as well with Falc as Kiwi does. If Falc is a wolf, him and Kiwi may trade places.
And the overwhelming favourite:
Falc:
Simply put, the evidence favours much more than I had realised before, and I was the first to make a case against him. I can stomach a tie, in fact that would be preferable, but Falc absolutely needs lynched today. He's the only one that perfectly fits textbook wolf behaviour. The two main events of the game that were possible wolf stunts, the aedan-wagon to save Panzer and the tonkfoolery pms, both involved Falc as pretty much the main character. I feel bad lynching him as I've done it twice recently, but in fairness he was a wolf one time, and the other time I was. I generally don't lynch him without good cause.
*This is all assuming there are three wolves, not four.
Unvote Esemsas Vote Falc
This, in my opinion, is perhaps the key moment of day 1 (at least so far in my reading). "perhaps breaking it now can make us learn even more" that sounds forced. Here's the count before he made it:
gliomarto 3: johho, falc, the split
johho 3: snoopdogg, gliomarto, esemesas
esemesas 3: capt kiwi, najs, euro
snoopdogg 3: marty, rascar, panzer
the split 1: aeden
rascar 1: tonka
Panzer was voting Snoopdogg. He switched off very quickly as the post shows, but I'm trying to figure out if he would play that fast and loose with a packmate's life. I mean, his vote catapulted snoop into the lead. Something tells me he probably wouldn't. I'm chalking this down as slightly in snoopdogg's favour.
The count after:
gliomarto 4: johho, falc, the split, panzer
johho 3: snoopdogg, gliomarto, esemesas
esemesas 3: capt kiwi, najs, euro
snoopdogg 2: marty, rascar
the split 1: aeden
rascar 1: tonka
This implicated heavily johho and esemesas. Fortunately for us, johho was hunted, quite a poor hunt by the wolves which I hope to dwell a bit more on later. For now, ese looks the most suspicious of anyone so far.
That's all of day 1 I will look at for now. As certain things become apparent later I may go back to focus on certain people/relationships, but I'm not going to go through every single post.
Day 2
I cast the first vote on Panzer, getting the ball rolling. I didn't write any real reasoning behind it though, can't remember if I had any at all. Najs follows my vote up, this time pointing out his suspicious activity around the deadline, which only in hindsight I've realised and is covered above.
Some other votes occur, then THE_SPLIT joins the vote, again casting suspicion on Panzer.
Snoopdogg switches to Panzer, then weirdly switches off as soon as another comes onto Commader, from EUROO7. Snoopdogg later switches back, but only after tonka puts Panzer out in front. Normally, this is very suspicious behaviour, and snoop goes up a bit here. Yet I still don't think he plays this that way as a wolf, but I HAVE to mark him up a little because I can't just ignore evidence.
Then this shit happens...
If only I had read this before (never bothered to) I would have realised Falc and Aedan do not go well at all together. I would also see how much more suspicious Falc is. He basically led the charge to save Panzer.
Panzer's gambit at the end, turned out to be a gambit, and well played to him. But I did wonder, if that were true, that he might have had someone whispering in his ear, an éminence grise, if you will, telling him that it made sense to frame aedan for another day.
Could that have been Falc? If it was, he made some serious multiple chessmaster type shit moves that day. He really went all out. Didn't save Panzer, but he recouped some losses in losing us a day convincing people to vote aedan.
The last thing to consider is EURO's switch, what did he mean by it. He switched to Panzer after he was already dead. Was it to gain credibility? What was the motive? Can't fathom it.
Anyway, PanzerWolf is lynched and tonkatoy5 is hunted, which on the face of it is a very poor hunt as tonkatoy had no hand in lynching a wolf. EURO and Tonka both start boasting profusely for some reason, which isn't immediately clear because by and large they voted in favour of the known wolf.
Kiwi then reveals the pms. EURO tries to act as if he somehow knew a) tonka wasn't the seer and b) tonkatoy would, not being the seer, somehow have the initiative to pass on those pms (unless they had been co-ordinating secretly, but I see no evidence of that in the thread). I think there's a decent chance EURO did not intend things to work out that way, there were simply too many variables. Perhaps he was a wolf fishing for the seer, or he genuinely thought tonka was one. Hard to know. EUROO7 will continue to tell us it was part of the Masterplan, of course. I'd say that's more likely than not at this stage.
Then I post the first analysis of the pms. Just going to quote them because I can't be bothered writing it out again.
The additional information is that Kiwi apparently wasn't online. Najs vote is also even more concrete than I previously realised, so if anyone had to hunt tonka based on this pm, it was EUROO7 or Falc. I have a feeling EURO's a villager which I've explained elsewhere, and I've also called numerous times for him to be scanned. If EURO's an unscanned wolf, the seer has ****ed up big time.
So for now, Falc is still the big suspect from all this.
Yesterday didn't yield much as we didn't get a wolf. Plenty to analyse, of course, but it will all be hypothetical until we get the second. No time for me to do pack possibilities right now.
The players left alive, in order of most cleared:
Very Unlikely wolves (this is the strongest security we can have with only one wolf dead)
THE_SPLIT:
Cast a crucial vote on Panzer to kill him. Didn't let off in all the crazy vote-switching.
Marty99:
Started the vote on Panzer and never got off. On the very rare occasions where I vote a packmate, I'm always online later to monitor the situation and see do I stick or twist. This time, after I voted I went offline.
Najs:
Normally Najs would be more cleared than me or THE_SPLIT, but the slight taint of that pm hangs over him. I'm still pretty confident he's a villager, just a tiny shadow hanging over him.
The next batch have nothing to clear them whatsoever, but also not much incriminating, or else the evidence is too muddled and hypothetical to say for sure:
EUROO7:
I just don't think he's a wolf. But on the other hand, he could easily be one. I just have the best vibe about him relative to everyone else.
Snoopdogg:
Tend to think he's innocent at the moment*, but his vote record is pretty suspect.
Capt. Kiwi:
Probably didn't hunt tonka because of that pm, although it's possible he was online. He usually isn't, but he was online shortly after the first deadline. Could be lying to us, not I'm not sure he would even do that. Him and Falc make a plausible partnership. They've made noises against each other, but generall haven't endangered each other. Until today, when it's clear Falc is going to be lynched anyway, Kiwi votes him.
Esemesas:
Has been flying very low under the radar. It's very hard even to find out where his votes are in the thread. Has a pretty poor vote record. However, does not go as well with Falc as Kiwi does. If Falc is a wolf, him and Kiwi may trade places.
And the overwhelming favourite:
Falc:
Simply put, the evidence favours much more than I had realised before, and I was the first to make a case against him. I can stomach a tie, in fact that would be preferable, but Falc absolutely needs lynched today. He's the only one that perfectly fits textbook wolf behaviour. The two main events of the game that were possible wolf stunts, the aedan-wagon to save Panzer and the tonkfoolery pms, both involved Falc as pretty much the main character. I feel bad lynching him as I've done it twice recently, but in fairness he was a wolf one time, and the other time I was. I generally don't lynch him without good cause.
*This is all assuming there are three wolves, not four.
Unvote Esemsas Vote Falc
Wolves, you know this guy really is the seer? He's really doing the too-obvious-to-contemplate-seer-doublebluff, you know that right?
If the wolves hunted me, that would be cannibalism.
Oh snap, am I the seer or a wolf now?!
Marty, I was necessary to kill Panzer. You just jealous of my statue.
Oh well, not much time to do anything.
Unvote Split. Vote Falc.
Oh well, not much time to do anything.
Unvote Split. Vote Falc.
HOW CAN YOU HAVE ANY PUDDING IF YOU DON'T EAT YOUR MEAT?
IN THE SAME VEIN, HOW CAN WE VOTE IF WE HAVEN'T GOT A VOTECOUNT?
Vote Falc
I totally scanned you last nite, brah. I think you'll appreciate I went through the extra effort to scan you instead of just having you lynched like I did Aedan.
IN THE SAME VEIN, HOW CAN WE VOTE IF WE HAVEN'T GOT A VOTECOUNT?
Vote Falc
I totally scanned you last nite, brah. I think you'll appreciate I went through the extra effort to scan you instead of just having you lynched like I did Aedan.
And here I was waiting for an outing :/
Oh and marty, saying "When I'm a ROLE A I always do X" is the most pathetic argument ever.
Vote Falc
Like I said, let's just lynch the PM recipients until we hit jackpot.
Oh and marty, saying "When I'm a ROLE A I always do X" is the most pathetic argument ever.
Vote Falc
Like I said, let's just lynch the PM recipients until we hit jackpot.
falc : capt kiwi, najs, marty, the split, snoop, euro, esemesas
euro : falc
Despite knowing full well there was a Michigan V Michigan St. college game on, the various alive and semi-sober humans left in the store refused to try and track who was voting upon which filthy godless possible Putin-Agent. Like magic a tally appeared before them and it said upon them, "Hang the one known as Falc, the votes are power and power shall be your salvation." Seeing that the votes themselves had spoken, the employees set about burning the godless witch known as Falc the side-door greeter. Fearing he might be evil due to the store lacking a side door the fire was set from afar. He swiftly burned faster than any normal human being as only one with so much vodka in his veins could.
Happy at the good days work, the survivors set about playing a game of monopoly. As the night was nearing an end and Euro kept knocking off players by his 4 railroad/2 utility/strategy as only a philosopher could it was time for a sleep. Sadly morning brought with it the death of the monopoly guru-philosopher formally known as Euro. As luck would have it he too lacked any special training to spot Putin agents having only his cunning railroad/utility strategy to spot them with.
wolfie falc hanged
villager euro hunted
euro : falc
Despite knowing full well there was a Michigan V Michigan St. college game on, the various alive and semi-sober humans left in the store refused to try and track who was voting upon which filthy godless possible Putin-Agent. Like magic a tally appeared before them and it said upon them, "Hang the one known as Falc, the votes are power and power shall be your salvation." Seeing that the votes themselves had spoken, the employees set about burning the godless witch known as Falc the side-door greeter. Fearing he might be evil due to the store lacking a side door the fire was set from afar. He swiftly burned faster than any normal human being as only one with so much vodka in his veins could.
Happy at the good days work, the survivors set about playing a game of monopoly. As the night was nearing an end and Euro kept knocking off players by his 4 railroad/2 utility/strategy as only a philosopher could it was time for a sleep. Sadly morning brought with it the death of the monopoly guru-philosopher formally known as Euro. As luck would have it he too lacked any special training to spot Putin agents having only his cunning railroad/utility strategy to spot them with.
wolfie falc hanged
villager euro hunted