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Day 5 Begin
Day 4:
Unsure of whom they should choose, the villagers decided to split the difference and expel both Horgum and Odranoel (Claude LC). In the process of expellingation, Horgum's hood fell off and lo-and-beholed, it was Duke Onkled (Jacksonian Missionary)! Indignant, the Duke stabbed Hamsha (Hax) with a knife.
Oooh, Nooo!
Hax, the villager, was hunted!Unsure of whom they should choose, the villagers decided to split the difference and expel both Horgum and Odranoel (Claude LC). In the process of expellingation, Horgum's hood fell off and lo-and-beholed, it was Duke Onkled (Jacksonian Missionary)! Indignant, the Duke stabbed Hamsha (Hax) with a knife.
Oooh, Nooo!
Claude LC, the villager, was lynched!
Jacksonian Missionary, the evil forces of Ganon, was lynched!
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DAY 1 VOTECOUNT
aedan777: 5
jeray2000 [79]
Capage [81 alxeu -> 100]
Tornadoli [94 Capibara -> 111]
BlackCrown [122]
Claude LC [125 Hax -> 126 unvote -> 151 Tornadoli -> 152]
Claude LC: 4
Castor94 [104 jeray2000 -> 146]
Hax [90 Castor94 -> 101 Wagonlitz -> 136 jeray2000 -> 138 Rovsea -> 148]
Capibara [76 Tornadoli -> 149]
Eternaly_Lost [112 Rovsea -> 137 jeray2000 -> 153]
Tornadoli: 3
Jacksonian Missionary [97]
aedan777 [82 Rovsea -> 105]
Wagonlitz [91 Hax -> 124]
jeray2000: 2
Rovsea [85 aedan777 -> 106]
alynkio [118]
alxeu: 1
Arkasas [77]
Hax: 1
alxeu [80]
Capibara tried to vote Tornadoli [155] but deadline had passed.
aedan777: 5
jeray2000 [79]
Capage [81 alxeu -> 100]
Tornadoli [94 Capibara -> 111]
BlackCrown [122]
Claude LC [125 Hax -> 126 unvote -> 151 Tornadoli -> 152]
Claude LC: 4
Castor94 [104 jeray2000 -> 146]
Hax [90 Castor94 -> 101 Wagonlitz -> 136 jeray2000 -> 138 Rovsea -> 148]
Capibara [76 Tornadoli -> 149]
Eternaly_Lost [112 Rovsea -> 137 jeray2000 -> 153]
Tornadoli: 3
Jacksonian Missionary [97]
aedan777 [82 Rovsea -> 105]
Wagonlitz [91 Hax -> 124]
jeray2000: 2
Rovsea [85 aedan777 -> 106]
alynkio [118]
alxeu: 1
Arkasas [77]
Hax: 1
alxeu [80]
Capibara tried to vote Tornadoli [155] but deadline had passed.
OK, so what do we know now?
Claude was a villager. While I'm disappointed, in hindsight that makes some sense given the speed of the vote development there, and it gives us some new insight into possible Day 1 shenanigans. Turns out that a lot of the villagers on Claude were previously voting Jeray, and that up until the Claude vote gained steam, Jeray was a serious candidate.Jackson and Aedan voting Torn could well be a way to put votes on somebody that wasn't aedan or Jeray. In other words, I'm insinuating that Jeray could be a wolf. The Day 1 vote count seems to support this.
So, for now:
Vote Jeray2000
Claude was a villager. While I'm disappointed, in hindsight that makes some sense given the speed of the vote development there, and it gives us some new insight into possible Day 1 shenanigans. Turns out that a lot of the villagers on Claude were previously voting Jeray, and that up until the Claude vote gained steam, Jeray was a serious candidate.Jackson and Aedan voting Torn could well be a way to put votes on somebody that wasn't aedan or Jeray. In other words, I'm insinuating that Jeray could be a wolf. The Day 1 vote count seems to support this.
So, for now:
Vote Jeray2000
We still got the seer on our side and sizeable JL. This means that there's barely any space for scum to manipulate.I don't know how many peeks are alive now, but It could be close to an automatic victory.
I'll read the thread later to find suspicious patterns of behaviour later, but I would prefor to be lazy today and just ride with JL.
Another quality analysis from you, Rovsea. This looks almost like you know too much. My view here is that Jackson voted Jeray almost every day and made an appealing case yesterday. Would he constantly push for his partner?
Jeray/Jackson interactions are far from w/w. Jeray voting Claude over Jackson is surprising, even if he were a wolf.
I'll read the thread later to find suspicious patterns of behaviour later, but I would prefor to be lazy today and just ride with JL.
Another quality analysis from you, Rovsea. This looks almost like you know too much. My view here is that Jackson voted Jeray almost every day and made an appealing case yesterday. Would he constantly push for his partner?
Jeray/Jackson interactions are far from w/w. Jeray voting Claude over Jackson is surprising, even if he were a wolf.
What are you talking about? If I was the alternative to Claude in past days, that would mean I was the villager the wolves were trying to get lynched before they switched to Claude.
Happy as I am that we caught Jackson the duplicitous wolf, I am a little disappointed that both Hax and Claude proved goodies as I was pretty confident I had cracked the game. This means that my analysis was flawed and I must return to the drawing board.
So, what can we learn from Jackson's revealed wolfdom?
This was only the 2nd vote on Torn. This ties him with Aedan at 2 votes at the time. It's still relatively early in the day and this sort of establishes Torn as a major candidate for the day. Not inconceivable that the wolves could try to vote up 2 of their own day 1, but combined with Torn's votes on Aedan and Jackson, Torn on the balance is looking pretty good.
Jackson would have known Wagon's innocence in advance. As Capage suggested also may have been the case with me, this looks like a wolf trying to give demonstrate his foresight and predictive powers to the village by voicing concern about the Wagon bandwagon; however Jackson probably might have expected villagers to try to save poor Wagon (it wasn't a great vote), and could be trying to set up Arky as the target if people start switching off Wagon. Not impossible that this is an alibi vote, but this was before Castor but Wagon out of reach and so Arky was a legitimate contender. On the whole, I think this makes Arky look good.
Repeats desire to kill Arky. Tries to establish me as a possible other candidate. Seems to try be trying to lay the groundwork for cases against villagers who haven't obviously been cleared yet. Jeray has been relatively quiet, but between this and his Aedan vote, I think he's also looking pretty good.
I don't think Jackson was expecting to die yesterday, and so probably wasn't especially worried about distancing himself from his packmates, so he was looking for a village patsy to run up and was less concerned with alibi-voting. Though he did ultimately switch away from Jeray the day before, this is his 2nd time declaring Jeray his preferred candidate.
What can be learned from these votes? Arky and Jeray are very likely innocent.
Hmmm... Imma guess Rovsea's innocent too. As this game is probably winding toward a village victory, I'm less scared to say it; this is probably the JL. If I'm wrong, this changes everything. If I'm wrong, I would have little compunction about killing Rovsea.
I refuse to believe BC is a wolf. I do not see him betraying Aedan day 1 with one of the most aggressive votes against him.
Thus, process of elimination leaves...
Capage and.... Torn??? I basically was already sure that Capage was a wolf (no offense Capage! You have done an excellent job providing analysis), but this second result surprises me greatly. I feel like I'm missing something. For today, the answer is definitely...
VOTE CAPAGE
So, what can we learn from Jackson's revealed wolfdom?
This was only the 2nd vote on Torn. This ties him with Aedan at 2 votes at the time. It's still relatively early in the day and this sort of establishes Torn as a major candidate for the day. Not inconceivable that the wolves could try to vote up 2 of their own day 1, but combined with Torn's votes on Aedan and Jackson, Torn on the balance is looking pretty good.
Jackson would have known Wagon's innocence in advance. As Capage suggested also may have been the case with me, this looks like a wolf trying to give demonstrate his foresight and predictive powers to the village by voicing concern about the Wagon bandwagon; however Jackson probably might have expected villagers to try to save poor Wagon (it wasn't a great vote), and could be trying to set up Arky as the target if people start switching off Wagon. Not impossible that this is an alibi vote, but this was before Castor but Wagon out of reach and so Arky was a legitimate contender. On the whole, I think this makes Arky look good.
Repeats desire to kill Arky. Tries to establish me as a possible other candidate. Seems to try be trying to lay the groundwork for cases against villagers who haven't obviously been cleared yet. Jeray has been relatively quiet, but between this and his Aedan vote, I think he's also looking pretty good.
I don't think Jackson was expecting to die yesterday, and so probably wasn't especially worried about distancing himself from his packmates, so he was looking for a village patsy to run up and was less concerned with alibi-voting. Though he did ultimately switch away from Jeray the day before, this is his 2nd time declaring Jeray his preferred candidate.
What can be learned from these votes? Arky and Jeray are very likely innocent.
Some emphasis added.
Hmmm... Imma guess Rovsea's innocent too. As this game is probably winding toward a village victory, I'm less scared to say it; this is probably the JL. If I'm wrong, this changes everything. If I'm wrong, I would have little compunction about killing Rovsea.
I refuse to believe BC is a wolf. I do not see him betraying Aedan day 1 with one of the most aggressive votes against him.
Thus, process of elimination leaves...
Capage and.... Torn??? I basically was already sure that Capage was a wolf (no offense Capage! You have done an excellent job providing analysis), but this second result surprises me greatly. I feel like I'm missing something. For today, the answer is definitely...
VOTE CAPAGE
Torn has put important votes on both wolves killed so far; he's almost certainly clear.
This is what I thought too. This makes me doubt my other assumptions. But where could I have gone wrong...?
1. Rovsea isn't in the JL. In which case, kill Rovsea.
2. I'm right, and Torn is a wolf.
3. I'm wrong about Jeray, and Jackson was openly crusading against his packmate, who also had a relatively clearing day 1 vote. This is possible, I guess, but I'm very surprised here.
1. Rovsea isn't in the JL. In which case, kill Rovsea.
2. I'm right, and Torn is a wolf.
3. I'm wrong about Jeray, and Jackson was openly crusading against his packmate, who also had a relatively clearing day 1 vote. This is possible, I guess, but I'm very surprised here.
Possibility #3 makes the most sense, though I concede that this would make me suspicious as well.
While I certainly can’t disagree on Capage, Torn doesn’t strike me as a wolf. My main suspects are Capage, who I’m voting for, and either Jeray, whom Jackson may have tried clearing, or, by gut feeling alone, you Alynkio. Though honestly I’m not sure on either.
VOTE CAPAGE
VOTE CAPAGE
