Home Trending Latest threads New posts Developer diaries

Werewolf Lite CDXVIII: College Applications

Jump to latest Follow Reply
  • We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
Reader mode
 
I think I've got some idea of who the wolf is, but let's ask some questions to see if the wolf talks himself into a corner and confirms himself as wolf.

@alxeu Why were you trying to get a tie on day 4? Even if neither of the tied people were friends we'd still not be set up for village victory as far as I can see?
Also, why were you more interested in finding the friend rather than finding the wolf yesterday?(if I read your post correctly that is)

@Arkasas You seemed rather silent in following me unto Sander yesterday. Any particular reason for not (publically) looking into the other candidates yourself?
What do you make of the fact that you broke the day 2 between two wolves?
 
beartjah said:
@alxeu Why were you trying to get a tie on day 4? Even if neither of the tied people were friends we'd still not be set up for village victory as far as I can see?
Also, why were you more interested in finding the friend rather than finding the wolf yesterday?(if I read your post correctly that is)
Click to expand...

To the first question, I saw it as this: if the three friends were still alive after night 4, and we had a tie, we'd be down to six players, of which three would be the friends, and village would've easily won from there. It could've worked any day from then on, so long as the two chosen people for the tie weren't friends... which they were.

To the second, I was unsure who the wolf was yesterday, and thought it'd be productive to figure out who the wolf was not. Finding the last friend turned out to be an easy exercise in comparison, and I'm unsurprised Arkasas figured it out, too. Regardless, presuming the last friend was Alyn, and that you were good, the only options left for me were Sand3r and Arkasas. One had a bunch of votes near deadline, the other did not, and, consequently, there was really no way to kill Arkasas yesterday, so I joined on Sand3r, being the only real option we had by that point.
 
beartjah said:
@Arkasas You seemed rather silent in following me unto Sander yesterday. Any particular reason for not (publically) looking into the other candidates yourself?
What do you make of the fact that you broke the day 2 between two wolves?
Click to expand...

I posted at what, 2 in the morning after Thanksgiving? I too wish I could have been more active, but I've been a bit busy these past two days. Today, however, I am available to answer all your possible questions* to your heart's content! (Plus, your analysis was pretty okay!)

disclaimer: may not be able to answer all possible questions, especially if they involve doing complicated mathematics or knowing things about sport. Offer not valid in Michigan or Ohio.

As to the other... they had two votes apiece? I'm not the foremost expert on TIEs, but I do know that TIEs where two people have two votes don't mean a whole lot. Should I not have voted either of them? I elected to vote Yvanoff because he seemed the more likely wolf while Castor seemed to just be being Castor (which is to say zombie-ish and hopping on wagons). Obviously, I was wrong on one of them, but at the time, and even right now, I feel I made the right call.
 
alxeu said:
To the first question, I saw it as this: if the three friends were still alive after night 4, and we had a tie, we'd be down to six players, of which three would be the friends, and village would've easily won from there. It could've worked any day from then on, so long as the two chosen people for the tie weren't friends... which they were.
Click to expand...

If we'd end up in a situation with 3 friends and 3 uncleared villagers it's not unlikely we'd have both wolves still alive, since they'd probably snipe their way out of tie if they were involved. We would then need to immediately correclty identify both wolves to win, one mislynch would've lead to wolf victory in that case. So not exactly an ideal situation even if no friend was lynched or hunted?


To the second, I was unsure who the wolf was yesterday, and thought it'd be productive to figure out who the wolf was not. Finding the last friend turned out to be an easy exercise in comparison, and I'm unsurprised Arkasas figured it out, too. Regardless, presuming the last friend was Alyn, and that you were good, the only options left for me were Sand3r and Arkasas. One had a bunch of votes near deadline, the other did not, and, consequently, there was really no way to kill Arkasas yesterday, so I joined on Sand3r, being the only real option we had by that point.
Click to expand...
Seems to make sense to me, though it could've of course also been trying to find the friend for hunting purposes. But that's not something a wolf would admit anyway, so I don't think I'm going to find out which of the two it was untill after the deadline.




Arkasas said:
I posted at what, 2 in the morning after Thanksgiving? I too wish I could have been more active, but I've been a bit busy these past two days. Today, however, I am available to answer all your possible questions* to your heart's content! (Plus, your analysis was pretty okay!)
disclaimer: may not be able to answer all possible questions, especially if they involve doing complicated mathematics or knowing things about sport. Offer not valid in Michigan or Ohio.

As to the other... they had two votes apiece? I'm not the foremost expert on TIEs, but I do know that TIEs where two people have two votes don't mean a whole lot. Should I not have voted either of them? I elected to vote Yvanoff because he seemed the more likely wolf while Castor seemed to just be being Castor (which is to say zombie-ish and hopping on wagons). Obviously, I was wrong on one of them, but at the time, and even right now, I feel I made the right call.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. I should've probably expected this answer, especially since I also thought Yvanoff was the more likely wolf :p
 
...
 
I suppose I should probably put my vote down by now.

Day 1 I see nothing of interest in either of you.
Day 2 is fairly useless to base a vote on since I don't have an Alxeu vote that day. The wolf being inactive or the wolf going after the more likely of the two wolves both seem equally likely scenarios.
Day 3 Alxeu brought up Aedan early, while Arkasas vote HumanCalc relatively late. Neither of these seem extremely wolfish to me.
Day 4 Alxeu was pushing for a rysz2.0-falc tie and then a rysz2.0-dedonus tie, while Arkasas was fairly late to the party and initially went after Dedonus. This would imo put more dirt on Alxeu than on Arkasas, since pushing dedonus was something Alxeu did as well
Day 5 Alxeu pushed on Dedonus away from Cailean, while Arkasas was again late to the party. This Dedonus pushing was also despite Falc telling him not to push for a tie with dedonus the day before, for what it's worth.
Day 6 Arkasas followed me farily silently, and Alxeu seems to have initially tried doing that as well before being pushed by Alynkio. When pushed he decided Arkasas was the better candidate without too mush reasons given.


Overall I get the feeling Alxeu is more likely as wolf, though I'm not entirely sure.

His day 4 tie pushing just doesn't make sense to me, and he seems to have been pushing the vote away from Cailean on day 5 before Dedonus revealed himself.

The main case against Arkasas as far as I can see is his day 2 behaviour, but that could've also been explained by seeing the Yvanoff case as stronger than the Castor case. Adding that I don't have an Alxeu vote that day I so don't think that day is really useable to find the wolf...


VOTE ALXEU

 
So be it. I've not the time to counter your argument, so I doubt I can dissuade you.

You'll find out whether you're right or wrong at deadline, for sure, but I can go ahead and say that we will lose, as it stands, no doubt almost entirely my fault if I've convinced you I'm bad.

GG Ark.
 
Night 7
  • Index
    • Day 7/Night 7

    11/24/2018
    Mr. Alxeu
    OT Forum Games
    Forum at Forum.Paradoxplaza.Com


    Dear Mr. Alxeu,


    This is in regard to your application to the Werewolf Winner program in the Paradoxplaza Institute of Werewolf. We regret that we cannot offer you admission to this program.


    Every year, we receive a large number of applications from extremely well qualified candidates. We are able to accept only a few because of the significant amount of time our faculty members spend with each graduate student. We make our admissions decisions only after reviewing each application very carefully. The primary reasons for which your application was unsuccessful are noted below:

    • Each application is considered in relation to other applications in the same area and only the very top applicants are admitted. Your application, considered as a whole, was not as strong as some of the others we received.
    • Your application was very interesting and had several strengths. However, we have no faculty members with similar enough research interests and so were unable to secure a supervisor for you.
    • The Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies sets a high villager convincing score minimum requirement for admission. Your record for this feat did not meet these requirements.
    We are proud that we are able to attract excellent applicants such as yourself. We hope you will continue your search for a graduate school and we wish you the very best in your academic pursuits.


    Yours truly,
    Panzer Commader, PhD
    Graduate Advisor
     
  • Add bookmark
  • Index
    • Arkasas said:
    Hmm. Many interesting options. For right now, though, I think Rysz is right - sometimes, to make an omelette, you must crack a few eggs.

    Vote Yvanoff
    Click to expand...

    Guys, I made an omelette! Play me out, Synthesizer 'Cat.

     
    Well done to all, especially to the GM!
     
    Panzer Commader said:
    Thank you!!

    And thank you to our hard working admissions officers, they do a thankless job with great professionalism and dedication and etc etc...
    Click to expand...

    You know, as someone who survived elite college admissions, I take great pride in making sure that nobody else does.

    Who wants to host next?
     
    Reader mode
    You must log in or register to reply here.
    Top Bottom
    Back