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Day and Night 5
DAY AND NIGHT 5!

It looks like the doctor had left a gift for his fellow plotters, and that at least one of them is still among you. With the abrupt death of the Pardoner, no one else feels like eating or drinking, and everyone goes to bed. The remaining pilgrims take turns holding a watch, and no additional murders occur during the night.

The Franklin senses my need to keep everyone's spirits up, and without any encouragement from me agrees to tell a tale.

The Franklin's tale concerns a Breton knight, who has fallen in love with a beautiful high-born woman. He's nervous to even speak to her, but he's determined to win her love. He preforms many brave actions in her name, and confesses that he's head-over-heels. The lady's heart is finally won, and they are wed. He vows to make her the happiest wife who's ever lived, so he promises he will never command her to do anything that she doesn't want to do as well. He further promises never to accuse her of impropriety, and to always be attentive to her needs.
The wife is moved by her husband's vow and in turn promises to always be patient with him. She knows that couples always bicker sometimes, but that she'll always forgive him. "Amen," quod the Wife of Bath, clearly enjoying this tale.

The couple lives together very happily and deeply in love. All of their friends are jealous of their happy marriage. Eventually, however, duty calls the Knight to serve in England, and he sorrowfully departs from his beloved wife Dorigen. Every day, Dorigen looks out over the rocky Breton coastline to see if her husband's ship has returned, fearing that it might be dashed upon the rocks that have doomed many a ship.

Dorigen, however, had another admirer, a young and talented squire named Aurelius. Consumed with passion, Aurelius confesses his love for Dorigen. She explains that she likes Aurelius as a friend, but that she's deeply in love with her husband and that, consequentially, she swears that she'd only give her love to the person who could vanish every single rock from the extremely long Breton coast -- so, in a word, nobody.

Utterly dejected, Aurelius returns home in tears. He barely leaves his room, and is clearly wasting away. His brother comes to attempt to console him, and Aurelius explains his woes. As luck would have it, his brother recalls from his student days in Orleans meeting a learned druid. Perhaps the druid would know of some way to help poor Aurelius?

Aurelius and his brother journey to Orleans to consult with the druid. He explains that it is indeed within his power to work an illusion -- he can make it appear as though all the rocks along the coast of Brittany have vanished. Dorigen had sworn to love any man who could preform this task had she not? Aurelius was so desperately smitten that he paid the Druid illusionist his 1000 pounds, arguing that the love of Dorigen would be worth any price.

Aurelius, his heart finally at ease knowing his greatest desire would soon be his, slept peacefully for the first time since he first set eyes upon Dorigen. The next day Aurelius, his brother, and the Druid return to Brittany. The Druid pours over astronomical charts to determine await an appropriate day on which to preform his magic. By the time such a day came, Dorigen had been joyously reunited with her husband Arveragus.

As soon as the druid brought about the miracle, Aurelius went to the temple at which he knew to expect Dorigen to boast of his feat. He said that he knew she was happily married and everything, but he was hopelessly in love with her. He reminded her that she had promised to love any man who could make all the rocks along the coast of Brittany disappear, and he invited her to return home to look at the coastline.

Dorigen returned home, her face utterly drained of blood, and overcome entirely with sorrow. She had indeed sworn a sacred oath to love such a man! She curses treacherous Fortune, who has presented her with a choice of either killing herself, dishonoring her oath, or dishonoring her marriage vows. She was fully leaning toward the suicide option when at last her beloved husband returned home for the day. Seeing his wife was clearly extremely upset, he asked her what had transpired and she explained her situation.

Her husband was hardly upset at all. He explained that he couldn't bear to live in a world without her, but that he couldn't bear the thought of his wife dishonoring her sacred oath to Aurelius. As far as he was concerned, surrendering her to Aurelius seemed easily to be the least bad option. He said he would always be willing to forgive her because he loved her so much.

Aurelius, curious to find out what Dorigen's answer would be, then came to visit. He finds her in the garden, and she explains that her husband has agreed to allow Dorigen to fulfill her oath to Aurelius. Dorigen is obviously horrified at what is about to transpire. As she begins to undress, Aurelius is moved to pity, and realizes that he cannot bear to force Dorigen to uphold her bargain, so he formally releases her from her oath. Dorigen thanks him, and returns to her husband.

Poor Aurelius still has to pay the 1,000 pounds to the druid, however. His inheritance is a paltry 500. He gives over the 500 to the druid, and begs for time and mercy to come up with the other half. He explains that he felt terrible at the thought of disrupting such a lovely woman's happiness and that he could not go through with his plan. The druid is also moved to pity, and releases Aurelius from the obligation of further payment. Every good and noble deed inspired another one, and everyone lives happily ever after.

Even if Dorigen and her husband are a little too perfect, everyone agrees that the Franklin had told a lovely and noble tale. Everyone, that is, except for the Parson.

"No!" He interjected. "That knight allowed his wife to govern him, which is contrary to nature and God's will!"

"Were you listening, you simpleton? They had a beautiful partnership based on mutual love and forgiveness! Neither governed the other!" Retorted the Wife of Bath.

"No! I shall explain. Let me speak of each of the seven deadly sins and each of the 7 virtues. We shall begin with Superbia."

The Parson goes on for an hour.

Then the Parson goes on for several more.

The Parson still isn't done yet.
Everyone is bored stiff.

Finally the Clerk cuts in.

"Dear Parson!" I fear god as much as the next man and more so than many, but I don't know if I've ever heard a sermon this long. We've reached the tavern. Is it not time to break off for the night?"

"You villain! I must still discuss the great and necessary virtue of Chastity!"

"I really think we've heard enough. Couldn't you tell an enobling story like the Franklin did instead of this dreary sermon?" Asked the summoner.

"Vile sinful summoner! I'll cut your throat to purify our Holy Mother Church of your filth just the way I killed that terrible Friar!"

Everyone is shocked to hear this confession. The remaining pilgrims decide that the only the only absolution available to the Parson will be his death.

"As miserable a soul as that Pardoner was, remarked the Franklin, he never killed anyone."

The next day, you wake to find that the Franklin, who had told such a nice tale, had been murdered at night. After hearing his tale, it was clear that he had been one of the wisest of you, and that without him, the party would be seriously disadvantaged in your quest to determine the remaining murderer among you.


XARKAN THE PARSON AND MURDEROUS PILGRIM (WEREWOLF) IS LYNCHED

CAPIBARA THE FRANKLIN AND MASTER STORYTELLER (SEER) IS HUNTED
 
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Ok, so five people left, one of them a wolf. I seriously doubt Latinkaiser would go out of his way to sell out his last packmate who hadn't been under pressure all game. So Latinkaiser's not getting lynched. I know I'm a villager, and I made an important vote on Xarkan too, so I'm a bad lynch. Arkasas was a later vote on Xarkan, and no one else had multiple votes then, so more likely to be an alibi. Wagon's vote on Xarkan was a last minute switch when Xarkan was already clearly being lynched, so no goodie points for him. And Nikk didn't vote.

Xarkan also tried to get Arkasas lynched day 3, so more points in Arkasas' favor. Alxeu also voted Wagonlitz day 3 before the outing, so a point to Wagonlitz too. Nikk has never been voted, voted me day 1, Tris/Latinkaiser day 2, no one day 3, Arkasas day 4, and no one day 5.

So Nikk's looking like the obvious wolf candidate, with Wagon a bit behind, and Arkasas a distant third. Unless Nikk is getting autolynched for missing two votes, I think he should be today's lynch. Maybe in a tie with Wagonlitz.

Vote 2kNikk
 

Well, you did as well as any of us could've hoped.

aedan's analysis seems most correct to me, so for the present, I will follow it.

vote Panzer
 
We're 5 man left meaning that we shouldn't TIE under any circumstances. If we TIE two villagers we lose, whereas a no TIE means we have tomorrow too. Aedan gets some baddie points for suggesting a TIE. I agree with him that LK is essentially cleared as it makes little sense to sell out a mate that blatantly in a game this dead as this. Now, it might have been in the hopes of hitting seer and then getting massive goodie points, though that's the less likely possibility.

Also, we really shouldn't forget aedan. He's a really slippery eel and hence his records should be looked at to see if he's suspicious or not.

Not sure if tucan would be this inactive as a wolf, though it has just been New Years and the game as a whole is pretty dead due to that, so who knows.
The wolves seems to have been hunting zombies with that Capi hunt, though, which would lead to Arky Bark, aedan, or I as the wolf.
 
So, finished reading the thread. It's 4am so don't know how much of it stuck but these are the general vibes I got:

Wagonlitz: voted alxeu day 1 for rp voting. Tried voting lk day 2 for tieing when lk was already dead. Has been accused of looking for easy lunches rather than suspicious lynches. Potential wolf for sure.

LatinKaiser aka Tris2: Found something pretty interesting there day 1. Voted Beartjah into third place and was accused of trying for a tie between two villagers. Their reply was "if I wanted a tie wouldn't I have voted Dr. Livingstone?", who was second in line. Except it turns out livingstone was a werewolf so you would indeed vote Beartjah instead if you wanted to tie two villagers. Perhaps more importantly, it is a common wolf tactic to try to save a packmate by introducing a third candidate rather than by simply voting the frontrunner. I myself use it a lot as a wolf. So I would have said back then LK is the most suspicious except for two things. Firstly, he did start the case on Xarkan yesterday. He didn't really push it but in a game this inactive that was still a very dangerous move. Secondly I would say it is likely that he would have been scanned by now, seeing as he was suspicious day 1 and Capi is a good player. So overall suspiciousness level is only medium.

Arkasas: honestly, I have played with Arkasas for years, and GMd games he's played in as both a goodie and a baddie, and I still can never read him. He just seems... Quiet, to me, no matter what he does. That quiet air. A master of poker he would be methinks. At any rate, in this game he has been accused of bandwagoning and a bad voting record. In absence of the possibility of behavioral analysis I would say that is pretty suspicious

Aedan: I would say he cast the more dangerous vote on Xarkan yesterday. Xarkan also chose him as the counter target. Very unlikely wolf for that reason imo.


Nikk2k: yes that's me. I'm not a wolf, least that's what the gm said. I know he missed two votes but if you think about it, one of them was outing day and new year's so does it really count? In addition in general I find that people are far more active and engaged in games when they are wolves than when they are vanillagers. So rather than lynch me for the sins of my father can the village please give me a chance and focus on Arkasas or Wagon please? To me they are the two most suspicious and even though I can't tell which of them is a more likely wolf right now, we do have two days to figure it out
 
If we TIE two villagers we lose, whereas a no TIE means we have tomorrow too. Aedan gets some baddie points for suggesting a TIE.
It makes no difference though. There are two possible lynches, either one each day or two at once.
 
It makes no difference though. There are two possible lynches, either one each day or two at once.

Yes but with tonight's hunt the targets will be narrowed down at least, so there is an advantage.

Are you still voting me for being inactive? Again I do not know nikk's exact reasoning but if anything a villager is more likely to be inactive than the wolves. And it really shows, considering the amount of posts we've had lately...

I think we should vote Arkasas today or Wagon, what do you think?
 
Yes but with tonight's hunt the targets will be narrowed down at least, so there is an advantage.
Unless the last wolf is stupid, Latinkaiser is getting hunted, he's simply not going to get lynched after starting a case on Xarkan from nothing.

Are you still voting me for being inactive?
Not really. I'm voting you because Nikk has by far the worst voting record. Sure his inactivity contributes to that, but at least Arkasas and Wagonlitz can point to wolves they've voted/been voted by.

I think we should vote Arkasas today or Wagon, what do you think?
Why vote Arkasas over Wagonlitz?
 
Unless the last wolf is stupid, Latinkaiser is getting hunted, he's simply not going to get lynched after starting a case on Xarkan from nothing.


Not really. I'm voting you because Nikk has by far the worst voting record. Sure his inactivity contributes to that, but at least Arkasas and Wagonlitz can point to wolves they've voted/been voted by.


Why vote Arkasas over Wagonlitz?

Because I'm not sure about Wagonlitz himself but I know Arkasas would sell out a packmate to gain credibility, so his vote on a wolf is less clearing. Also, yesterday all he did was follow LK onto Xarkan and today he followed you onto me. This is similar to his behavior that I observed when he was a wolf in a bad spot in a game that I gm'd (which he later won). Quietly sell out a packmate for the goodie points then breeze by following someone else's case and hoping no one notices you. Wagonlitz is still a good candidate though for his weird cases and I wouldn't mind tying them if I was as sure as you that LK was resistance, but I am not. I don't remember his playstyle enough to know if he would sell out a packmate but he simply made one post against Xarkan, he didn't continuously argue for it vehemently or anything. To me that is not clearing, especially with a vote that could be seen as protecting livingstone in the early game.
 
Update will be delayed again tonight. Apologies.

QUICK LAZY VOTECOUNT

PANZER COMMADER: 2
Aedan777 the Wife of Bath
Arkasas the Summoner


ARKASAS: 1
Panzer Commader the Reeve

NOT VOTED: 2
Wagonlitz the Merchant
LatinKaiser the Clerk
 
Colored Votecounts​

CLAUDE LC: 4

Beartjah the Miller (72)
LatinKaiser the Sergeant at Law (75)
Randakar the Monk (Alx [84] --> 85)
Xarkan the Parson (88)

DR. LIVINGSTONE: 3

Alxeu the Squire (71)
Capibara the Franklin (80)
Dedonus the Shipman (Capi [76] --> 90)

BEARTJAH: 3

Emperor Ike the Friar (75)
Claude LC the Knight (78)
Tris2 the Clerk (91)

AEDAN777: 2
Nikk2k the Reeve (74)
Wagonlitz the Merchant (77)

EMPEROR IKE: 1

Eternaly_Lost the Pardoner (66)

RANDAKAR: 1

Arkasas the Summoner (69 -- Kinky)

LATINKAISER: 1

Dr. Livingstone the Doctor (78)

ARKASAS: 1
Aedan777 the Wife of Bath (82)

ALXEU: 4
Wagonlitz the Merchant (108)
Emperor Ike the Friar (110)

Xarkan the Parson (136)
LatinKaiser the Sergeant at Law (Tris [98] --> EL [132] --> Tris [137] --> 141)


LATINKAISER: 4
Randakar the Monk (Ike [107] --> Ded [117] --> 134)
Arkasas the Summoner (EL [128] --> 128)
Tris2 the Clerk (Aed [111] --> Wag [118] --> EL [130] --> 136)
Alxeu the Squire (Ike [117] --> 139)


ETERNALY_LOST: 1
Dedonus the Shipman (106)

WAGONLITZ: 1
Aedan777 the Wife of Bath (111)

DEDONUS: 1
Eternaly_Lost the Pardoner (113)

XARKAN: 1
Capibara the Franklin (115)

TRIS2: 1
Nikk2k the Reeve (126)

:mad: NOT VOTED, GETTING SUBBED: 1 :mad:
@Dr.Livingstone the Doctor


ALXEU 2.0: 6
Randakar the Monk (150 --> Ark[164] --> 167)
Aedan the Wife of Bath (Wag [153] --> 168)
Arkasas the Summoner (Wag [160] --> 169)
Xarkan the Parson (Ark [162] --> 172)

Dedonus the Shipman (Cap [159] --> 173)
Eternaly_Lost the Pardoner (Cap [163] --> 174)


WAGONLITZ: 1
Alxeu v2.0 the Doctor (156)

NOT VOTED: 5
@Tris2 the Clerk tried to vote Alxeu v2.0 in 175. This vote was late.
@Capibara the Franklin tried to vote Alxeu v2.0 in 176. This vote was late.
@Wagonlitz the Merchant tried to vote LatinKaiser in 153. LatinKaiser was lynched day 2.
@Wagonlitz the Merchant tried to vote Alxeu v2.0 in 177. This vote was late.
@Nikk2k the Reeve

TRIS2: 3
Dedonus the Shipman (187)

Eternaly_Lost the Pardoner (189)
Xarkan the Parson (191)

ARKASAS: 2
Wagonlitz the Merchant (184)
Nikk2k the Reeve (185)


WAGONLITZ: 1
Arkasas the Summoner (190)

NOT VOTED: 3
@aedan777 the Wife of Bath
@Tris2 the Clerk*
@Capibara the Franklin*

DEDONUS: 5
Eternaly_Lost the Pardoner (Tris [189] --> 193)
Tris2 the Clerk (194)
Arkasas the Summoner (Wag [190] --> 195)
Nikk2k the Reeve (Ark [185] --> 197)
Aedan777 the Wife of Bath (200)

ARKASAS: 2
Wagonlitz the Merchant (184)
Dedonus the Shipman (Tris [187] --> 196)


TRIS2: 1
Xarkan the Parson (191)


:mad: NOT VOTED :mad:

@Capibara the Franklin

XARKAN: 4
LatinKaiser v2.0 the Clerk (210)
Aedan777 the Wife of Bath (212)
Arkasas the Summoner (Wag [208] --> 214)
Wagonlitz the Merchant (Ark [207] --> 219)

AEDAN777: 1
Xarkan the Parson (215)


ARKASAS: 1
Capibara the Franklin (217)


:mad: NOT VOTED: 1 :mad:
@Nikk2k the Reeve
 
Because I'm not sure about Wagonlitz himself but I know Arkasas would sell out a packmate to gain credibility, so his vote on a wolf is less clearing. Also, yesterday all he did was follow LK onto Xarkan and today he followed you onto me. This is similar to his behavior that I observed when he was a wolf in a bad spot in a game that I gm'd (which he later won). Quietly sell out a packmate for the goodie points then breeze by following someone else's case and hoping no one notices you. Wagonlitz is still a good candidate though for his weird cases and I wouldn't mind tying them if I was as sure as you that LK was resistance, but I am not. I don't remember his playstyle enough to know if he would sell out a packmate but he simply made one post against Xarkan, he didn't continuously argue for it vehemently or anything. To me that is not clearing, especially with a vote that could be seen as protecting livingstone in the early game.
For Latinkaiser, he not only put a vote on Xarkan, but he also made a colored votecount from previous days preceding his vote. And the colored votecount was very indicative of Xarkan being a wolf, I was thinking I'd make a case on Xarkan looking at the counts before I realized Latinkaiser already had. With only two wolves left and the seer still alive, that would be a very dangerous move for a wolf Latinkaiser to make, and I don't think he would be so bold or ruthless. Also Xarkan and Dedonus were both voting Latinkaiser/Tris on day 4.

Arkasas is far from clear, his vote on Xarkan is not wholly clearing, I agree. However Xarkan tried to kill him day 3 as well. One vote on or by a wolf can easily be an alibi, two less so.

Granted, Wagonlitz also was voted by a wolf on day 3, Alxeu v.2. However, Wagonlitz already had a vote before Alxeu voted him, from me, whereas Arkasas did not until Xarkan voted him. If wolves are going to vote each other, generally speaking, they do so as a lynch is gaining speed, not starting one on their packmate. You could say Xarkan's vote was meant as a throwaway, but Xarkan put something of a case behind his vote, for Arkasas being the third voter on Wagonlitz when no one else had more than one vote. That would be dangerous to call on a packmate, especially on day 3 with no dead wolves.

Perhaps more importantly, day 3 saw each of the three main candidates (Capibara, Arkasas, Wagonlitz) gain one vote from known wolves. That is not a distribution of wolves who have a packmate in the running. The most obvious conclusion to draw from that is that no wolves were in the running, so the wolves spread out to not seem related. This points to the surviving players not in the running, myself, Latinkaiser, and Nikk/Panzer. I've already explained why Latinkaiser is an unlikely wolf, and I, besides knowing I'm a villager, made an important vote to make Xarkan a candidate yesterday, and I was his target to try to get lynched instead.

Nikk frankly has nothing in his favor, and so compared to everyone else, he seems the best lynch for today. Nothing from the evidence I've reexamined, or from Panzer's posts, has changed my mind on that.
 
For Latinkaiser, he not only put a vote on Xarkan, but he also made a colored votecount from previous days preceding his vote. And the colored votecount was very indicative of Xarkan being a wolf, I was thinking I'd make a case on Xarkan looking at the counts before I realized Latinkaiser already had. With only two wolves left and the seer still alive, that would be a very dangerous move for a wolf Latinkaiser to make, and I don't think he would be so bold or ruthless. Also Xarkan and Dedonus were both voting Latinkaiser/Tris on day 4.

Arkasas is far from clear, his vote on Xarkan is not wholly clearing, I agree. However Xarkan tried to kill him day 3 as well. One vote on or by a wolf can easily be an alibi, two less so.

Granted, Wagonlitz also was voted by a wolf on day 3, Alxeu v.2. However, Wagonlitz already had a vote before Alxeu voted him, from me, whereas Arkasas did not until Xarkan voted him. If wolves are going to vote each other, generally speaking, they do so as a lynch is gaining speed, not starting one on their packmate. You could say Xarkan's vote was meant as a throwaway, but Xarkan put something of a case behind his vote, for Arkasas being the third voter on Wagonlitz when no one else had more than one vote. That would be dangerous to call on a packmate, especially on day 3 with no dead wolves.

Perhaps more importantly, day 3 saw each of the three main candidates (Capibara, Arkasas, Wagonlitz) gain one vote from known wolves. That is not a distribution of wolves who have a packmate in the running. The most obvious conclusion to draw from that is that no wolves were in the running, so the wolves spread out to not seem related. This points to the surviving players not in the running, myself, Latinkaiser, and Nikk/Panzer. I've already explained why Latinkaiser is an unlikely wolf, and I, besides knowing I'm a villager, made an important vote to make Xarkan a candidate yesterday, and I was his target to try to get lynched instead.

Nikk frankly has nothing in his favor, and so compared to everyone else, he seems the best lynch for today. Nothing from the evidence I've reexamined, or from Panzer's posts, has changed my mind on that.
Looking back at how the wolves voted, and checking out E_L's probability theory from the other day that correctly identified Dedonus as a wolf, I agree with this analysis. Arky and Wagon have both received enough attention from known wolves to indicate that they are goodies (also, I don't think Wagon would be so anti-TIE as a wolf), but Nikk/Panzer has been very inactive, doesn't have a very good voting record, and is in an intertesting place in the signup roster vis-à-vis villagers/likely villagers (he's surrounded by aedan and Arky on one side and me, randy, and Ike on the other). In short, all signs point to Nikk/Panzer being the last wolf.

Vote Panzer
 
is in an intertesting place in the signup roster vis-à-vis villagers/likely villagers (he's surrounded by aedan and Arky on one side and me, randy, and Ike on the other)
I agree with your conclusion and the rest of your reasoning, but I have to object to someone else actually taking EL's hairbrained roster analysis remotely seriously. It's obviously nonsense. The distribution will be random, and there is no greater likelihood of someone being a wolf for being surrounded by villagers in the roster. In this very game we had two wolves right next to each other on the roster. That EL was right about dedonus was nothing more than pure luck. It's a stupid method, and any attempt to make it an accepted form of wolf finding is to the detriment of the game.
 
I don't like how quiet the thread is. Where is @Wagonlitz?