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Werewolf Lite CDXXII: Enter the Gungeon [Village Wins!]

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Day 1
Dedonus: 5
CaesarCzech (49)
Xarkan (72)
Panzer Commader (76)
Tus3 (50 CaesarCzech -> 86)
Arkasas (51 Rovsea -> 87)

Arkasas: 4
aedan777 (54)
alynkio (61)
Rovsea (47 Dedonus -> 64)
Caillean (80 Dedonus II (Claude LC) -> 89)

CaesarCzech: 2
Rovsea II (randakar) (55)
Dedonus (46 Tus3 -> 84)

Rovsea: 1
Wagonlitz (67)

Panzer Commader: 1
Graf Zeppelin (52)

Wagonlitz: 1
jeray2000 (70)

Caillean: 1
Capibara (73)

Not voted: 1
Dedonus II (Claude LC)

Day 2 (Pre-Tie Break)
CaesarCzech: 2
alynkio (105)
Arkasas (119)

Tus3: 2
Rovsea v2 (107)
Caillean (114)

jeray2000: 2
Xarkan (118)
Wagonlitz (121)

Panzer Commader: 1
Tus3 (104)

Capibara: 1
Dedonus 2.0 (115)

Wagonlitz: 1
Graf Zeppelin (116)

Arkasas: 1
Capibara (117)

Not voted: 4
Panzer Commader
aedan777
jeray2000
CaesarCzech

Day 2 (Post-Tie Break)
CaesarCzech: 5
alynkio (105)
Arkasas (119)
Tus3 (104 Panzer Commader -> 134)
aedan777 (140)
Graf Zeppelin (116 Wagonlitz -> 145)

jeray2000: 2
Xarkan (118)
Wagonlitz (121)

Wagonlitz: 1
Rovsea v2 (107 Tus3 -> 141)

Tus3: 1
Caillean (114)

Capibara: 1
Dedonus 2.0 (115 Capibara -> 135 jeray2000 -> 136)

Arkasas: 1
Capibara (117)

Not voted: 3 :(
Panzer Commader
jeray2000
CaesarCzech

Day 3 Pre-Outing
Arkasas: 3
Xarkan (165)
Wagonlitz (171)
Graf Zeppelin (179)

Rovzea: 3
aedan777 (172)
Arkasas (175)
Dedonus 2.0 (alynkio 166 > 177)

Wagonlitz: 1
Rovsea v2 (161)

Graf Zeppelin: 1
Caillean (173)

Not voted: 3
alynkio
Capibara

Day 3 Post-Outing
Rovsea v2: 7
aedan777 (172)
Arkasas (175)
Dedonus 2.0 (166 alynkio -> 177)
alynkio (184)
Graf Zeppelin (179 Arkasas -> 186)
Caillean (173 Graf Zeppelin -> 188)
Xarkan (165 Arkasas -> 189)

Arkasas: 1
Wagonlitz (171)

Wagonlitz: 1
Rovsea v2 (161)

Not voted: 1
Capibara
 
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From that one Wagonlitz looks very suspicious imo or at least very lazy.
 
I'm so sorry, I went out for lunch and it took longer than expected. Good luck, guys.
 
Why did I have to have class for an hour and a half before deadline? RIP
 
Another day, another "analysis."

Out of everyone, I feel that Wagonlitz and Graf Zeppelin are the most suspicious.

Graf Zeppelin voted Panzer on Day 1. This is either a lucky villager vote or an alibi vote by a wolf. Then, Day 3, before the outing, she voted Arkasas to make a tie. As we now know, Rovsea was a wolf, so was this move made so that Rovsea's fourth packmate could snipe at the end to save Rovsea II?

Wagonlitz, in turn, voted Arkasas on Day 3 and never switched at the outing. I feel that is more trivial than my next points. Rovsea II voted Wwagonlitz twice in a row on Days 2 and 3 (Day 2, he switched his vote late in the day). Is Rovsea II alibi voting here? Finally, Wagonlitz said he would not be around at deadline. Even though I made an outing, I was not hunted. Did the wolves not switch off their standing hunt order because Wagonlitz was not around to do it? I feel this is less likely because everyone else who is still alive today switched their vote. Therefore, the fourth wolf was definitely present and didn't switch the hunt order to me.

This is a difficult choice, as both have some circumstantial evidence pointing in their direction. The evidence on Wagonlitz looks more damning, but it also can be more easily explained away.

VOTE Graf Zeppelin
 
Xarkan said:
Vote Graf Zeppelin

Dedonus is JL, so I'll go with his vote.
Click to expand...
Just because he's JL doesn't mean you should blindly follow him. A very low effort vote, like most the rest of your votes this game.

I'll be going through all remaining candidates:

Dedonus: JL, so not to be lynched.

Aedan: I know I'm a villager, and I got the ball rolling on Rovsea yesterday, so I'm obviously a bad lynch.

Arkasas: He was a major candidate on day 1 and so it seems suspicious that both known wolves were voting other candidates at the time. However, he voted Rovsea on day 3. More importantly Arkasas was also voted by three players on day 3, which gives a high chance of at least one wolf voting for him.

Wagonlitz: Rovsea tried to go after him two days in a row. Dedonus' case on him is kind of nonsensical. Voting a wolf twice, on days 2 and 3, is a bit beyond the realm of alibi voting, especially when Rovsea tried to make a case against Wagon on day 3. And the wolves didn't change their hunt because wagon wasn't around? Very silly, there are two wolves left, if another wolf was around, they could've changed it on their own. I don't think Wagon is a likely wolf.

Xarkan: Very lazy votes all game. I also think Dedonus' reasoning yesterday for him to be an unlikely wolf is unconvincing. The wolves aren't going to perfectly distribute their votes on day 1, it's possible for multiple wolves to vote the same person. Possible wolf.

Alynkio: Not much to pull off of for the first couple days voting wise. Yesterday voted Rovsea after the outing, but apparently intending to vote Rovsea anyways, so maybe goodie point. Though I also recall Dedonus fingering both Alynkio and Rovsea in his initial analysis yesterday, so potentially something there. I also remember on day 2 that he made an early vote on caesarczech, saying it was because he wouldn't be around later, then he showed up at the end of the day near deadline anyways. Potential wolf.

Graf Zeppelin: Voted Panzer day 1, the only one to do so. Could be an alibi vote, though I remain skeptical of Caillean's assertion yesterday that the possibility of it being an alibi constituted a serious case. However, I also find the hunt on Caillean curious. She was not the JL spokesperson, nor was she voting outed wolf Rovsea prior to the outing. Either of those would have seemed the natural choice for the wolves. There are two alternatives as I see it: The wolves went for the seer and assumed the seer wouldn't vote for a wolf to be outed, or they went after Caillean because she was going after another wolf of their pack, and they thought that indicated her as seer. Maybe I'm reaching with that. Regardless though, I'm suspicious of Graf, and think she's a decent possibility for a wolf. However, she already has two votes, so I don't think I'll vote her presently.

Instead I'll vote for my second highest suspect, Alynkio, to make it more of a race to draw out more information.

Vote Alynkio
 
Well, following off Dedonus's logic and in the interest of promoting TIE, I will

vote Wagon
 
Graf Zeppelin said:
Vote Arkasas

I think a TIE would be good now and both are suspicious. Rovzea a bit more imo. I think the chances are good we get a wolf out of this.
Click to expand...

This vote brings Arkasas into a TIE with a known wolf. Now, officially, we don't know that Arky is a villager and everything, but many of us have taken high-profile votes against him -- he doesn't have that many plausible packmates left... also there wasn't really a case against him. Xarkan's vote was a placeholder (don't know what Wagonlitz was thinking, he only had 1 vote from Rovs)

Graf Zeppelin said:
Unvote Wagonlitz
Vote CaesarCzech 4

If thats what the village wants.
Click to expand...

This vote also seems odd. No reason to bandwagon Caesar into oblivion. Also... as opposed to what the wolves want?

Having an open JL can sometimes stifle discussion, but in this case I think Dedonus hit the nail on the head. Wagon is usually an easy lynch -- this might explain Rovsea's animus, and makes it a less than likely alibi vote in my book. The only other candidate might be Xarkan for quasi-zombeism. I'd ordinarily be one for adding another candidate to the mix for information, but I don't honestly see a better candidate than Graf.

VOTE GRAF ZEPPELIN
 
Having gone back and done the math, it occurs to me that a TIE could potentially be a bad idea, so I will leave Wagon behind for Graf. Sorry, Wagon, it's nothing personal.

vote Graf
 
Day 4 Votecount - 32 minutes to deadline (valid as of post #216)​

Graf Zeppelin: 3
Dedonus (206)
Xarkan (210)
amynkio (215)

alynkio: 1
aedan777 (212)

Wagonlitz: 1
Arkasas (213)

Not voted: 2
@Wagonlitz
@Graf Zeppelin

Arkasas tried to vote Graf Zeppelin in 216, but didn't un-vote Wagonlitz first
 
Hm, yeah, good point.

unvote Wagon
vote Graf
 
This is a Justice League Announcement!
Alynkio is a scanned wolf! All villagers must switch their votes to Alynkio.​
 
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