Werewolf Lite CDXXVII: Battle for Prestim [Werewolves victory]

[aedan777]

Do Not Follow That Outing​

Jeray is not a member of the JL, and Claude is not a scanned wolf. The actual JL does not have a scanned wolf unfortunately, but since we reach parity is a mislynch is made, we cannot let Jeray's outing mislead you.

I don't even know if Jeray is a wolf, since he could just be a patsy for them.

@jeray2000 who contacted you as the supposed JL, and when did they do so?

 

[jeray2000]

I am the Seer. I scanned alynkio Night 1, and that was the only other scan I had.

We're at a choice now: Everyone needs to decide between lynching me or Claude(or aedan I guess but I think it's simpler to focus on Claude for today).

 

[aedan777]

I am the Seer. I scanned alynkio Night 1, and that was the only other scan I had.

We're at a choice now: Everyone needs to decide between lynching me or Claude(or aedan I guess but I think it's simpler to focus on Claude for today).

Claiming to be the seer directly huh? Ballsy, but I don't think it'll work. You can only be a wolf then.

Unvote Eternaly_Lost Vote Jeray2000

 

[Yvanoff]

Current votecount - 46 minutes to deadline (valid as of post #163)​

jeray2000: 3
Eternaly_Lost (132)
Chefjones (137)
aedan777 (147 Eternaly_Lost -> 163)

Eternaly_Lost: 2
beartjah (133 jeray2000 -> 148)
Claude LC (156) *

Panzer Commader: 1
brovahkiin (138)

Claude LC: 1
jeray2000 (143 Chefjones -> 145)

Not voted: 1
@Panzer Commader

*: missed one vote and will be subbed with recourse in case of second missed vote

 

[brovahkiin]

Anyone want to provide some pms?

 

[aedan777]

Anyone want to provide some pms?

I won't, since there are other member(s) of the JL, and I'm not going to endanger them by putting out their name(s) or posts by them.

We'll see if Jeray can forge something up though.

 

[Chefjones]

So based on this theres at least one wolf between jeray and claude right? Just for the sake of safety I'll remake the TIE there. Guaranteed one that way at least

Unvote Jeray2000
Vote Claude_LC

 

[aedan777]

So based on this theres at least one wolf between jeray and claude right? Just for the sake of safety I'll remake the TIE there. Guaranteed one that way at least

Unvote Jeray2000
Vote Claude_LC

As previously mentioned by Beartjah and myself, a tie is a bad idea, as the wolves can snipe. Also the tie you've made is a threeway one, which could result in a village loss anyways if EL is a villager.

 

[Chefjones]

I won't, since there are other member(s) of the JL, and I'm not going to endanger them by putting out their name(s) or posts by them.

We'll see if Jeray can forge something up though.

I think its late enough in the game that its worth it. If we don't get a wolf today then its done, so we should really be using all that we have. This reads like you're trying to give yourself time to forge.

 

[jeray2000]

I would like everyone to consider that if I was a wolf, there ought to be more wolves standing with me. But most people are aligning against me here, I don't have any allies pushing that I'm correct, so it's quite unlikely I'm a wolf.

As I said I'm the sole member of the JL, alynkio was hunted Night 1. No PMs.

 

[aedan777]

I think its late enough in the game that its worth it. If we don't get a wolf today then its done, so we should really be using all that we have. This reads like you're trying to give yourself time to forge.

What? I've already said I won't post PMs, so no forging could even take place. And it's a threeway tie with them all at 2 votes, that's incredibly easy for wolves to snipe and break, it's almost certainly going to lose us the game not be "worth it".

Also I just realized that Jeray's claiming to have scanned the Alynkio on the night he was hunted. Real convenient that he's made a claim where he has no PMs to show...

 

[Chefjones]

As previously mentioned by Beartjah and myself, a tie is a bad idea, as the wolves can snipe. Also the tie you've made is a threeway one, which could result in a village loss anyways if EL is a villager.

Heres hoping someone breaks it then. Personally I'd like a 2 way TIE between jeray and Claude. They're almost certainly w/v

 

[jeray2000]

Also I just realized that Jeray's claiming to have scanned the Alynkio on the night he was hunted. Real convenient that he's made a claim where he has no PMs to show...

It's like the anthrophic principle, if I had scanned someone who wasn't hunted then the JL wouldn't be so weak that I needed to do a controversial outing like this.

 

[jeray2000]

Heres hoping someone breaks it then. Personally I'd like a 2 way TIE between jeray and Claude. They're almost certainly w/v

Right now Claude can switch to me at last minute. We need more people on Claude.

 

[beartjah]

If Aedan were a wolf then Jeray probably isn't(or there some higher level werewolf going on here and both are wolves. In that case: well played )
In the scenario of Aedan being a wolf he then wouldn't have any reason to redirect the lynch away from Jeray into E_L I think. So I guess Aedan being goodie makes more sense to me than Jeray being goodie?
Besides, I doubt Aedan would go out of his way to save a packmate like that. He'd prolly just kill his packmate to go at it solo(at least, that's what I would've done in his situation ).
And I'd also expect wolf Aedan to just follow rather than oppose an outting like this, again to then win the next day.

If Jeray is a baddie he'd be doing this only if both he and E_L are baddies since it looked like E_L was going to die there. In which case it still wouldn't make sense to me to make a fake outting since he could just let E_L die and win the next day. So that would make Jeray more likely to be a goodie than Aedan?


This is only making it more confusing
I guess I don't see a reason why Jeray would be faking this outting as a wolf since it looked like he was going to make it through today. But I'm really not sure in this
@aedan777 what reason would Jeray have make this fake outting? I genuinely can't find one here...
UNVOTE ETERNAL_LOST
VOTE CLAUDE

@jeray2000 if you're the seer, then why didn't you let a JL member do the outting for you?

So based on this theres at least one wolf between jeray and claude right? Just for the sake of safety I'll remake the TIE there. Guaranteed one that way at least

Unvote Jeray2000
Vote Claude_LC

Wolves can snipe to victory by chaning their votes in the last seconds to deadline. We'd be dead if we make a tie(unless it's two wolves in it). We must lynch only one person per day from now on if we want to not just throw victory away.

 

[Yvanoff]

Current votecount - 29 minutes to deadline (valid as of post #175)​

Claude LC: 3
jeray2000 (143 Chefjones -> 145)
Chefjones (137 jeray2000 -> 167)
beartjah (133 jeray2000 -> 148 Eternaly_Lost -> 175)

jeray2000: 2
Eternaly_Lost (132)
aedan777 (147 Eternaly_Lost -> 163)

Eternaly_Lost: 1
Claude LC (156) *

Panzer Commader: 1
brovahkiin (138)



Not voted: 1
@Panzer Commader

*: missed one vote and will be subbed with recourse in case of second missed vote

 

[aedan777]

@aedan777 what reason would Jeray have make this fake outting? I genuinely can't find one here...

Two possible reasons, one that EL, the new leader after Jeray fell behind, was also a wolf (possible), and second possibility, Jeray was afraid that the vote switch might swing back to him, or that the JL might have an outing waiting in the wings. As this is the last day before parity, it makes sense for wolves to try to pull off a fake outing to pull out a win, especially earlier to preempt the JL from making a possible outing.

@jeray2000 if you're the seer, then why didn't you let a JL member do the outting for you?

He's claiming he has no JL members since he only scanned Alynkio on the night he was hunted, and Claude last night. Which is real convenient for a wolf to not make any evidence to support their claim to be seer and have an outing.

 

[jeray2000]

@jeray2000 if you're the seer, then why didn't you let a JL member do the outting for you?

Because there was only 3 wolves this game, I didn't get a Night 0 scan, my Night 1 scan was also the Night 1 hunt, and Claude was my Night 2 scan.

In the scenario of Aedan being a wolf he then wouldn't have any reason to redirect the lynch away from Jeray into E_L I think. So I guess Aedan being goodie makes more sense to me than Jeray being goodie?

aedan as a wolf still plays similarly to aedan as a villager, and doesn't follow bad cases or jumps on bandwagons. If aedan did just follow the bandwagon onto me instead of pushing E_L it would have been suspicious and may have gotten him caught.

Wolves can snipe to victory by chaning their votes in the last seconds to deadline. We'd be dead if we make a tie(unless it's two wolves in it). We must lynch only one person per day from now on if we want to not just throw victory away.

Not if all the wolves are on me in the TIE, which is possible.

 

[aedan777]

@Panzer Commader @brovahkiin @Claude LC There's been a false outing and now Jeray is a confirmed wolf, come vote for him. Claude, you'll be lynched if Jeray isn't, though we'll all lose anyways if that happens.

@beartjah @Chefjones Come on, stop following Jeray, his claim is so obviously bogus. He just so happened to have his first scan be the same who was hunted and leave him with no PMs to share whatsoever? This is such an obvious parity push it's not even funny that you're falling for it.

 

[beartjah]

So ehm, what does the rest make of this? I've only seen jeray, chef, aedan and myself here... And I'm a bit to confused to be sure about what I'm doing

Two possible reasons, one that EL, the new leader after Jeray fell behind, was also a wolf (possible), and second possibility, Jeray was afraid that the vote switch might swing back to him, or that the JL might have an outing waiting in the wings. As this is the last day before parity, it makes sense for wolves to try to pull off a fake outing to pull out a win, especially earlier to preempt the JL from making a possible outing

If EL was a wolf he could've just sat out the day, take the hit and try to win with one wolf down? At least, that would seem a more sensible course of action in that scenario?
For a potential switch to jeray this would seem a bit overkill.
Preempting the JL in expectation to an outting would also seem a bit risky of a move if you ask me...

He's claiming he has no JL members since he only scanned Alynkio on the night he was hunted, and Claude last night. Which is real convenient for a wolf to not make any evidence to support their claim to be seer and have an outing.

Conveniet, but certainly not impossible.

Because there was only 3 wolves this game, I didn't get a Night 0 scan, my Night 1 scan was also the Night 1 hunt, and Claude was my Night 2 scan.



aedan as a wolf still plays similarly to aedan as a villager, and doesn't follow bad cases or jumps on bandwagons. If aedan did just follow the bandwagon onto me instead of pushing E_L it would have been suspicious and may have gotten him caught.

Not if all the wolves are on me in the TIE, which is possible.

if the wolves are somewhat competent they would avoid this I think