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Deadline
Final Count
Alxeu -3- Claude, Chieron, MAW,
MAW -3- Grimlock, Wombat, Culann,
Chieron -1- Beartjah,
Culann -1- Arkasas,
Alxeu has not indicated voting intention.
MAW -3- Grimlock, Wombat, Culann,
Chieron -1- Beartjah,
Culann -1- Arkasas,
Alxeu has not indicated voting intention.
We don’t have anything to go on and the non-voters will get purged anyways. They’ll likely be villagers. Better off voting for someone who is dead anyways and not contributing, then lynch someone who is playing and is a villager.
I'll be pissed as heck if I'm wrong about maw. Not happy about the tie but oh well
Indeed. A bloodbath would likely have decimated the village on a day where we lack a voting record.
Day 3 - Night 4
Congressman Alxeu is suddenly absent, raising suspicion. He is voted out of committee, but was just a regular member. Congressman MAW, however, is a different story. You're looking at the next CIA Director.
Congressman Wombat died on the way back to his home state.
Congressman Wombat died on the way back to his home state.
Quite unfortunate. I predict the seer and am repaid by being outed by my packmate immediately.
ATTENTION: Remaining Committee Members
Certify me ASAP, or else some very bad, very nasty things might start happening to you committee members!
If I'm not mistaken it's now 5 vills and 1 wolf. If I'm counting correctly we can go for a tie today and then have a 3-way tomorrow. I believe we should try using this tie: If we do not use it we get to use 2 lynches/guesses to find the last wolf before we lose, if we do make a tie we get to have 3 lynches/guesses to find the last wolf, giving us a better shot of finding him.
Yesterday started with first DBW, then grimlock and claude pushing MAW up to 3.
- I think this leaves Grimlock fairly low on the list of suspects
- Claude seems unlikely too, though i could see an outside chance of him pushing up MAW to 3 in an attempt to trigger a counter-reaction. Claude also seems like the kind of person to sell out his packmates in such a situation, so that might be what happened as well.
Then MAW goes for chieron as the second candidate. Probabily leaves Chieron a bit less likely to be the last remaining wolf.
I then push back a bit against the MAW case, which I'll admit looks pretty bad now.
Culann then jumps along, pretty much agreeing with what I said. Looks bad for the same reason I look bad.
At this point Culann gets pushed by Chieron and Arky. Doesn't seem too unreasonable to me per se, though arky has pretty much been coasting along.
Then there's some scuffling around where the TIE gets shuffled a bit:
- chieron moves from culann to MAW to break the tie. goodie points for chieron.
- MAW moves from chieron to cullan, at which point chieron moves back to culann to break tie.
- now DBW starts forcing a tie
- Chieron broke the tie psuhing cullan up over maw, DBW remakes tie. Note that chieron had no other means of breaking the tie.
- culann breaks the tie pushing maw up over himself. This was self-preservation since the tie was: 3-3-2 cullan-maw-chieron
Through this bit chieron was consistently pushing to break the tie, which is something the village needs. That he broke some tie's in favour of maw seems like an almost inevitability with the number of ties he broke. cullan's move to push up maw isn't clearing at all since it was pure self-preservation.
The next bit that's relevant is of course the switch to alxeu. At the start of that switch it was a maw-culann tie, which means that MAW would've been saved by this switch had it not ended in a tie. The switch was intiated by claude, then joined by DBW, chieron and (late) culann.
Ordering players in what I think is the order of likelihood of them being wolves:
1: arky hasn't really done much in the way of anything this game. That said, it could also just be a lack of time/motivation to play. All the other players seem to have at least something vaguely clearing for them, arky just appears to be sitting out of the chaos. He also appears the only persono where I've no real reasons to view him as less likely to be a wolf.
2: claude intiated the whole push on alxeu. His early vote on maw is putting me off, though I could see him doing it as an alibi vote.
3: grimlock seems unlikely based on both his early vote on MAW, as well as DBW noting earlier that he thought grimlock was an unlikely villager. It's not entirely impossible since he could be selling out his packmate in the fase of pressure on the packmate. Still, claude's involvedment in the push makes me rank him higher.
4: culann joined the alxeu switch which would've saved MAW if it was fully succesful. He also earlier in the day voted for chieron over MAW. These two moves that were seemingly in MAWs favour make him my most likely suspect. My main doubt here is MAW's move from chieron to culann, which turned a 3-3-2- maw-chie-cul into a 3-2-3. This makes absolutely no sense for MAW to do if culann was a wolf, except for MAW trying to save himself while killing his packmate for goodie points at the same time.
5: chieron was also part of the alxeu switch, but MAWs vote on chieron as the second candidate of yesterday which would make him a rather unlikely wolf. I don't think MAW would be crazy enough to push his own packmate up as the only other candidate at that point, especially after MAW get his own pressure on him because of another packmate's craziness .His anti-TIE moves yesterday also seem to work in the villages favour, even though he did end up pushing alxeu into the tie.
6: beartjah. I know I'm a villager, though I'll admit I don't look very good at the moment. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if I was high on some people's kill-list.
VOTE ARKASAS
Yesterday started with first DBW, then grimlock and claude pushing MAW up to 3.
- I think this leaves Grimlock fairly low on the list of suspects
- Claude seems unlikely too, though i could see an outside chance of him pushing up MAW to 3 in an attempt to trigger a counter-reaction. Claude also seems like the kind of person to sell out his packmates in such a situation, so that might be what happened as well.
Then MAW goes for chieron as the second candidate. Probabily leaves Chieron a bit less likely to be the last remaining wolf.
I then push back a bit against the MAW case, which I'll admit looks pretty bad now.
Culann then jumps along, pretty much agreeing with what I said. Looks bad for the same reason I look bad.
At this point Culann gets pushed by Chieron and Arky. Doesn't seem too unreasonable to me per se, though arky has pretty much been coasting along.
Then there's some scuffling around where the TIE gets shuffled a bit:
- chieron moves from culann to MAW to break the tie. goodie points for chieron.
- MAW moves from chieron to cullan, at which point chieron moves back to culann to break tie.
- now DBW starts forcing a tie
- Chieron broke the tie psuhing cullan up over maw, DBW remakes tie. Note that chieron had no other means of breaking the tie.
- culann breaks the tie pushing maw up over himself. This was self-preservation since the tie was: 3-3-2 cullan-maw-chieron
Through this bit chieron was consistently pushing to break the tie, which is something the village needs. That he broke some tie's in favour of maw seems like an almost inevitability with the number of ties he broke. cullan's move to push up maw isn't clearing at all since it was pure self-preservation.
The next bit that's relevant is of course the switch to alxeu. At the start of that switch it was a maw-culann tie, which means that MAW would've been saved by this switch had it not ended in a tie. The switch was intiated by claude, then joined by DBW, chieron and (late) culann.
Ordering players in what I think is the order of likelihood of them being wolves:
1: arky hasn't really done much in the way of anything this game. That said, it could also just be a lack of time/motivation to play. All the other players seem to have at least something vaguely clearing for them, arky just appears to be sitting out of the chaos. He also appears the only persono where I've no real reasons to view him as less likely to be a wolf.
2: claude intiated the whole push on alxeu. His early vote on maw is putting me off, though I could see him doing it as an alibi vote.
3: grimlock seems unlikely based on both his early vote on MAW, as well as DBW noting earlier that he thought grimlock was an unlikely villager. It's not entirely impossible since he could be selling out his packmate in the fase of pressure on the packmate. Still, claude's involvedment in the push makes me rank him higher.
4: culann joined the alxeu switch which would've saved MAW if it was fully succesful. He also earlier in the day voted for chieron over MAW. These two moves that were seemingly in MAWs favour make him my most likely suspect. My main doubt here is MAW's move from chieron to culann, which turned a 3-3-2- maw-chie-cul into a 3-2-3. This makes absolutely no sense for MAW to do if culann was a wolf, except for MAW trying to save himself while killing his packmate for goodie points at the same time.
5: chieron was also part of the alxeu switch, but MAWs vote on chieron as the second candidate of yesterday which would make him a rather unlikely wolf. I don't think MAW would be crazy enough to push his own packmate up as the only other candidate at that point, especially after MAW get his own pressure on him because of another packmate's craziness .His anti-TIE moves yesterday also seem to work in the villages favour, even though he did end up pushing alxeu into the tie.
6: beartjah. I know I'm a villager, though I'll admit I don't look very good at the moment. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if I was high on some people's kill-list.
VOTE ARKASAS
