Werewolf Lite CLXXXIII: The Siege of Vienna

[Saintis]

Soldiers!
I see that Lord Strange the evil Turkish Aristocrat did get sent to the Firing Range. Good, good indeed.

Well now onto today's task: Walrus harpooning.

Vote Walrus

Well this will be an epic tale indeed, worthy of Lenin. But no time for gossiping ladies. To the field of battle!

 

[walrus]

I am not a wolf.

 

[jacob-Lundgren]

I am not a wolf.

Oh?

I am not a wolf.

 

[Lemeard]

Oh?

:rofl:

 

[Slinky]

sub

Yeah I know I am repeating myself, but that's on GM request ​

 

[walrus]

Oh?

Yes, but mine is in BOLD and ITALIC! I MUST be telling the truth!

Also bandwagon much?

 

[EUROO7]

Yes, but mine is in BOLD and ITALIC! I MUST be telling the truth!

Also bandwagon much?

Vote Walrus - This must be the truth as well.

 

[randakar]

Per GM request - I'm still here, and available to sub.

 

[EUROO7]

Why is the GM requesting ghosts to post?

I'll have you know, in my days, ghosts just spammed on their own, you didn't have to hold their hands as they haunted, taunted and flaunted the players. Hmpf.

 

[randakar]

Why is the GM requesting ghosts to post?

He PM'ed some folks asking them to confirm their subbyness either in the thread or by PM. I kinda missed the second bit of that, only realizing it *after* I already posted here

I'll have you know, in my days, ghosts just spammed on their own, you didn't have to hold their hands as they haunted, taunted and flaunted the players. Hmpf.

You seem to forget that many threads nowadays seem to have more active ghosts than players

And don't you worry - I'm sure this thread will succumb to that as well at some point

So I was looking at the player list wondering who would hunt Jonti on the second night. And well..

At least it wasn't me

 

[EUROO7]

He PM'ed some folks asking them to confirm their subbyness either in the thread or by PM. I kinda missed the second bit of that, only realizing it *after* I already posted here

Noob GM.

I remember when I did that. Nowadays if someone said sub, I just send them the role PM.

 

[Lemeard]

Okay. Let's make some fancy conclusions based on yesterday.

Jacob is a very unlikely wolf oo) base don the fact that he sniped to LS. The only way he could be a wolf is if Steed also is one and they thus sacrificed LS. But that theory is as far fetched as the idea that Tory is right-wing.

EURO and Lemeard (oh hey, that's me) both end up in the category of unlikely wolves based on them helping to run up LS.

Steed also ends up as an unlikely wolf based on the fact that he was the other guy in the run and LS didn't hesitate to TIE them both very close to the end of the day.


That leaves us with the following candidates:
Walrus
Saintis
Jamie550
Punkbob
Syber_sid

I was first thinking about scratching suspects based on who I thought most likely to hunt Jonti. But on second though I bet that order wasn't sent in until after he suggested LS should be lynched, which means that a lot of people probably weren't online between then and deadline.

Anyway, those are my five suspects and I suggest we run up people from that group.

 

[Steed]

I thought i would double check the first page, just incase there was any EURO input towards 2 packs and lucky enough NOT!!..

 

[EUROO7]

I thought i would double check the first page, just incase there was any EURO input towards 2 packs and lucky enough NOT!!..

Indeed. This simplifies things.

 

[walrus]

4 votes for me, and 2 for punkbob?

Bandwagon much? I am like, totally, not a wolf, and things, yeah!

 

[Jamie550]

Vote Syber

Like Lemeard, I agree that Steed and Jacob are unlikely wolves, due to Ls's TIEing, and Jacob's unTIEing. It would only really make sense if the three of them were wolves and it was some sort of choreographed move to throw suspicion off the other two. Which would be not very worthwhile, since in the case of a three-wolf pack, there is a 66% chance of a Seer.

Now remain Euro, Lemeard, Walrus, Saintis, me, Punkbob, and Syber.

Euro pushed Ls above Steed, when he could easily have done something else. In a two-wolf pack, wolf Euro would not sacrifice his only packmate so early on. In a three-wolf pack, wolf Euro would be more likely to sacrifice a packmate to establish credibility, but it still seems unlikely, especially as there was still over half an hour left. Also, Lord Strange voted Euro, though of course that's not much evidence. So, Euro is also probably not a wolf.

Saintis is also somewhat unlikely a wolf, since wolf Lord Strange "voted" him on day 1. Now Lord Strange may have realized that it was a night start and thus purposely sowed confusion, but this time, it seems like everyone except a few thought it was a day start. There is a significant time gap between Saintis's post and Lord Strange's vote, and thus the vote appears to be a natural first day vote. Also, on day 2, Saintis voted Lord Strange, but the interpretation is unclear. All of this evidence is very circumstantial, but Saintis is slightly more unlikely to be a wolf.

Lemeard defends himself well with evidence, and he is probably not a wolf, but more likely than Euro.

So right now the ordered probability of being not a wolf is:
Steed, Jacob >>> Euro >> Lemeard >>> Saintis > Walrus, Jamie, Punkbob, Syber

Of these, I know I'm innocent and Punkbob just returned (or at least I haven't seen him in a while). This leaves Walrus and Syber. Now, Walrus would have no scruples about hunting Jonti - he did so on much less evidence two games ago [full disclosure: I supported Jonti's hunt too]. Meanwhile, Syber is a nonvoter, and really, either a useless villager or skulking wolf/warlock. Right now, the vote is very lopsided to Walrus, as Punkbob will probably vote Walrus, and Syber has shown no signs of returning, making the vote 4-2.

But Syber is a good choice to run up with Walrus, maybe with Punkbob in the mix.

Lem [1] - Jacob [169]
Wal [3] - Saint [181] Euro [180] Steed [178]
Punk [2] - Wal [179] Lem [172]
Syber [1] - Jamie [196]
None [2] - Punk Syber

 

[marty99]

Randakar is subbing for Syber_sid

 

[Steed]

So right now the ordered probability of being not a wolf is:
Steed, Jacob >>> Euro >> Lemeard >>> Saintis > Walrus, Jamie, Punkbob, Syber

Excellent work on the analysis, but i think the not being a wolf list is more like a hunt list
and im guessing im first. A dead man walking.

 

[randakar]

Meanwhile, Syber is a nonvoter, and really, either a useless villager or skulking wolf/warlock.

He was a useless nonvoter villager. But now I have reincarnated in his place as a sexy shoeless god of war!!! villager

So right now the ordered probability of being not a wolf is:
Steed, Jacob >>> Euro >> Lemeard >>> Saintis > Walrus, Jamie, Punkbob, Syber

I agree with this analysis. I will, however, not join the walrus wagon. Jamie seems rather active this turn around and if a villager thus at least useful. That leaves only one sane choice for me to vote.

Vote punkbob

 

[marty99]

Official Ballot Tabulation
Circa five hours and fifty five minutes to deadline

TIE Leaders underlined in blue
Walrus - 3; Steed, EUROO7, Saintis
Punkbob - 3; Lemeard, Walrus, Randakar (formerly Syber_sid)
Randakar (formerly Syber_sid) - 1; Jamie550
Lemeard - 1; jacob_Lundgren

Not Voted: Punkbob​