Young Griff and later events

[tsf4]

What is your guys stance on Young Griff and events from ADOD? Also, the chance things will take a turn like the first book... a la, Ned goes south, and dominos start falling across Westeros?

EDIT: I should add, this is meant for the game, not just general talking points about what will happen in WOW. Like, is he in game with a event series, etc.

 

[TheAnguishedOne]

I don't like his odds of winning. Aside from Dorne, who even wants the dragons back on the throne?

 

[Moarice]

I don't like his odds of winning. Aside from Dorne, who even wants the dragons back on the throne?

I suspect Velaryons and Celtigars.
Greatest army of supporters in history.

 

[Montezuma II]

I don't like his odds of winning. Aside from Dorne, who even wants the dragons back on the throne?

More than you think in my opinion, considering Robert brought the realm into debt and his death caused quite possibly the most brutal conflict since the Dance, many in Westeros are probably begging for a strong and stable ruler.

 

[pquinn232]

There's a Bank in Braavos that might like a friendly ruler on the throne.....

 

[Ed Mike]

What is your guys stance on Young Griff and events from ADOD? Also, the chance things will take a turn like the first book... a la, Ned goes south, and dominos start falling across Westeros?

EDIT: I should add, this is meant for the game, not just general talking points about what will happen in WOW. Like, is he in game with a event series, etc.

Must say I'm a little unsure about what exactly you are asking.

If young Griff appears on this mod?

Yes. He may appear either as Daenery's husband if she makes certain choices in her own journey or as a conqueror landing at the seat of house Wylde and trying to convince the whole world that he's Rhaegar son and heir. He may succeed, but that's a rare outcome in my experience.

 

[Pukovnik]

I don't like his odds of winning. Aside from Dorne, who even wants the dragons back on the throne?

Possibly many Crownlands lords (especially houses whose ancestry is tied in Valyrian roots, such as Velaryons, Celtigars, Rambtons, Sunglasses), Stormlands should bend the knee to Aegon when/if he takes Storm's End, Friends in the Reach (those unsatisfied with the Tyrells bending the knee to Robert in RR, maybe some of the Blackfyre supporters etc. Also their support partially depends on the outcome of the trials in KL), there might be support from the Riverlands because of the Frey/Lannister terror within the region, the Vale will support someone in WoW (at least they should, they're sitting with unscratched army for years now, GRRM isn't keeping their armies unused just to sit out on the bench through the whole series). Basically it all depends of the initial success of Faegon/Danny after they land. No one, especially those war weary houses will just throw support to the Targs with uncertain outcome. And when someone shows up with three dragons or battle-hardened Golden Company before your gates, well it is kinda persuasive to declare for them if you don't want your castle and family roasted.

 

[Urzhail64]

The way I see it, the Lannisters do not have alot of friends to put it mildly. The only houses (I'm referring to the books, not the TV series) who might be reliably pro-Lannister out of all the great houses would be the Freys and Boltons due to the rewards from the Red Wedding but given the nature of their crimes, they're really more like albatrosses around Cersei's, Tommen's and Jaime's necks. And the Lannisters aren't known for being honorable or trustworthy either. On the other hand, The Eyrie, Riverlands, The Reach, Dorne, the North and the Stormlands all hate the Lannisters with varying degrees of passion. That's six out of the Seven Kingdoms. In the event of a strong invasion by Daernys/Aegon, I'd say the Lannisters have very little chance and almost ALL of Westeros is going to rise against them especially with Tywin gone. Kevan is no Tywin and Cersei has been a disaster from a political standpoint. She's responsible for directly antagonizing the Tyrrells and arming the Faith Militant and couldn't control Joffrey. And Tommen is easily led which doesn't make for a very stable hold on the Iron Throne for the Lannisters. Oh and don't forget that Cersei outright rejected the Iron Bank of Braavos' demand for repayment of the huge debt that the crown owes them.

Kevan was making progress in mending the damage done by Cersei when he was killed off...thus ensuring that Cersei would be able to resume her misrule through Tommen. I fully expect Maggy the Frog's prophecy to be fulfilled to the dot.

Militarily, the only armies in Westeros that haven't been reduced by the War of the Five Kings would be the Eyrie and Dorne. THe Lannisters most certainly have lost a great deal of their troops due to Robb's run of victories until the Red Wedding - at least three entire Lannister armies were destroyed by Robb Stark and had Edmure given way and let Twyin's army into the Westerlands where Robb could have trapped them among the mountains that would have changed the war considerably particularly at the Battle of the Blackwater. Twyin wouldn't have made it there at all. There isn't much left of the men of the North after the Bolton betrayal and intentionally frittering away of the Northmen aside from Bolton troops by Roose Bolton.

However it's known at the end of the Winds of Winter that the armies of Dorne are already massed along the border with the Reach. With Cersei back in the catbird seat, I wouldn't be at all surprised if House Martell and House Tyrrell had an rapproachment and joined together. Both of them already have plenty of reasons to hate Cersei.

The Golden Company and Aegon's invasion of the Stormlands also puts them pretty close to the massed armies of Dorne too. Once it's confimed that he is indeed Aegon, I expect Dorne to immediately assist Aegon and the Golden Company - they'd just have to march across the eastern part of the Reach to join up with the Golden Company particularly since Aegon has blood ties to the Martells through his mother Elia. It'd depend on if Young Griff is indeed Aegon or not and can convince Arianna Martell of that.

 

[Piko]

You forgot that Tyrrell and Martell are truly sworn enemy houses, very unlikely they ever work together, even in their mutual hatred for Cersei, just don't see it happening.

 

[SBerger]

The Reach is most likely going to join with The Iron Throne though. You are forgetting the marriage pact between the two houses. The Tyrells may hate Cersei with a passion, but Margaery is still married to Tommen. The Reach will no doubt come to the aid of King's Landing since they have a vested interest in keeping Tommen on the Throne.

 

[Urzhail64]

The Reach is most likely going to join with The Iron Throne though. You are forgetting the marriage pact between the two houses. The Tyrells may hate Cersei with a passion, but Margaery is still married to Tommen. The Reach will no doubt come to the aid of King's Landing since they have a vested interest in keeping Tommen on the Throne.

The Reach has several problems that should be considered:

1. Ironborn already occupy the Shield Islands. Those islands are right at the mouth of the river leading up to Highgarden. Cersei refused to supply the Tyrrells troops to clear them off the islands.
2. Dorne has it's armies massed along the Reach/Dorne border.
3. Jon Connington and "Aegon Targaryen" and the Golden Company are also uncomfortably close by in the Stormlands. If Dorne chooses to assist them, all bets are off. The Golden Company is 10,000 troops strong. That's not a small force.

The rumors about Tommen's and Myrcella's true parentage is some serious baggage or the crowd in King's Landing wouldn't be calling Cersei "brotherf.....r" during that riot in KL and the Lannister hold on the Iron Throne isn't particularly stable. Especially since Kevan was murdered by Varys' children. And Kevan had been making progress in mending the Lannister/Tyrrell fracture in wake of the Faith Militant's seizing Margaery at Cersei's instigation which is no secret whatsoever to Olenna and the rest of her family. With Kevan gone, it's back to Cersei's misrule since she's the only one left to guide Tommen.

I'd bet Olenna is already figuring out if she should cut bait and abandon Tommen and throw in her lot with someone else once she can get Mace (ha), Margaery and Loras out of King's Landing. She has to realize that if Tommen dies without issue, her family' AND the Reach is up shit creek sans paddle. Particularly if "Aegon" proves he is indeed Aegon to Arianna Martell.

And finally per Maggy the Frog's prophecy, I'd imagine Tommen is going to die very soon. "Three gold crowns, three gold shrouds" remember ? That also may mean Myrcella is going to rule AFTER Tommen because if Tommen dies, she's the last remaining "Baratheon" heir to the throne and she's in Dorne's hands. It doesn't matter if she's female because she'd be absolutely the last known "heir" outside of Dany who can be crowned. Dorne's call whether to marry Arianne to "Aegon" or go through with the Myrcella-Trystane marriage or not.

Prince Doran is a excellent player of the game of thrones to boot. And he has two directions he can go towards. Aegon or Myrcella and has great casus belli in either case.

And I suspect Dorne is massing those armies for exactly THAT reason.

And uh, you remember some of the Sand Snakes are headed to King's Landing ? I'd suspect Tommen is due for a little poisoning with Tyene headed to King's Landing.

 

[SBerger]

I think you're seriously underestimating The Reach and Tyrell strength. It may be an exaggeration, but I really believe that if times call for it, The Reach can field 100 000 soldiers. The fact in the books that the Tyrells just aren't just dealing with the South Riverlands while also forming an army to retake the Shield Islands says something. 10 000 is nothing for the Reach to match and with Dorne by "Aegon's" side, the Reach can still mop up anyone on an open field battle. They control some of the finest commanders and soldiers Westeros has to offer. PLUS we can't forget the Golden Company has been divided on their frantic voyage across the Narrow Sea. They already lost some thousand to storms and sunk ships with having to deal with occupying the territory they took. Dorne can at most provide "Aegon" with 15 -20 thousand at most given their resources, terrain, and travel to the Stormlands.

And I'm saying again, Cersei may have screwed up a lot with relations with Highgarden but the fact still remains Margaery is married to Tommen, and even if he is a weak and indecisive ruler, The Tyrells can easily act as advisers and councilors. They can easily control Tommen, but Aegon is what Tommen is not and Highgarden will most likely suffer due to their aid to the family that killed "Aegon's" grandfather. The Tyrells have already crossed that road and is actively helping the Lannisters stay in power.

 

[hiigara128]

Plus there's the fact that "Aegon" has no proof to back who he says he is. He's not like Dany, universally acknowledged as the last of the Targaryens; he has even less legitimacy then Cersei's bastards. After all, legally any children of the King are assumed to be the issue of the King. The only evidence "Aegon" has is the word of Jon Connington, believed to have been dead (thus discreditable) and Varys, whose believably is as bad as Cersei's.

As to the Lannisters having pissed off the rest of Westeros, yeah its not ideal but its also not as bad a situation as one expects. The North's forces were depleted by Robbs campaigns and the aftermath of the Red Wedding, so even if a Stark takes control of Winterfell, they would be hard pressed to form another army to march south. The Riverlands were the primary battlefield of the early days of the Five Kings war, have no real leadership left and lost a good chunk of men, so no again no real threat.

The Vale is ruled by Petyr Baelish at this point and would only move against the Lannisters if the Protector thinks its in his best interests to do so. So far, not happening yet. The Westerlands are firmly Lannister and ruled officially by Cersei. No chance of a revolt. As their Northern campaign and previous revolt proved, the Iron Islands are only a short-term threat and could never really challenge the Iron throne in the long-term. The Reach might hate Cersei, but she's not the Sovereign. If she can be removed by the faith militant once and for all (a true possibility at this point) then the Tyrells, as Tommerns in-laws and supposedly closest relatives, would have a clear shot at the Regency and power behind the throne. Not to mention that the Reach's armies survived relatively intact. The Stormlands gambled everything on Stannis' campaign against King's Landing and lost. Unless Stannis or a representative of his returns to take command at Storm's End, the Storm lords will remain ineffectual.

Finally, to Dorne. Not a threat outside of their homeland. Sure they've proven to be relatively unconquerable, but man to man and commander to commander my money is on the Reach crushing their armies if they move in favor of "Aegon" and his relatively small army of 10,000.

Now if Dany were to invade with her 3 fully grown dragons, an army made up of some of the best soldiers in the world, a horde of zealous freedmen and Dothraki screamers, well that's a hole different can of worms. Much easier to rally to a legitimate pretender with an army that has a good chance to winning than to an unknown, probably fake heir whose sole force has already lost in their invasion attempts on three separate occasions. "Aegon's" chances politically or militarily are slim to none without Dany's acknowledgment and support.

 

[Ed Mike]

The Tyrells may be tied with the Lannisters by marriage, for now, but don't forget that Cersei screwed the pooch on that, as he does on everything. Margaery is up for a Trial by Faith. Should she die in the process, or forced to become a septa, the Tyrell-Lannister marriage will be no more, and everyone in line for succession at the Reach is far from Cersei's hands, and every Tyrell will know the Iron Throne abandoned them to fight the Iroborn alone, while letting one of them die.
Should Mace die in KL, his heir was penpal with Oberyn Martell, from all people. The guy would quite probably take an offer of help from Dorne against the raids.
If prince Doran could milk that relation to his late brother instead of wasting men fighting the Reach...

 

[Soverrin]

Dragons in Westoros again wont go well with many nobles but they might bend the knee to Daenerys if she does arrive and also if she can control her dragons. I wonder if there is anyone who is willing, able or knows how to deal with a dragon.

Who would you choose?
Unsullied or Golden company

 

[hiigara128]

Dragons in Westoros again wont go well with many nobles but they might bend the knee to Daenerys if she does arrive and also if she can control her dragons. I wonder if there is anyone who is willing, able or knows how to deal with a dragon.

Who would you choose?
Unsullied or Golden company

Not like the nobles would have much choice. Dragons are the Ice and Fire equivalent of usable nukes: challenge at your own risk. But yeah the key part is Daenerys' ability to control her Dragons or even just Drogo. If they remain out of control she'd be in a bad spot. Also, who could "deal" with a dragon? In canon the only examples of Dragons being killed by anything other than old age or another Dragon was Dorne getting a lucky shot on Meraxes and the storming of the Dragonpit. Neither of which can really be turned into a strategy.

As for Golden Company vs Unsullied, definitely the later. The Golden company is good but not unbeatable. Remember that the Unsullied are (as far as we know) the only force that has ever beaten a Dothraki horde in open battle. No brainer on who would win in an open fight.

 

[Urzhail64]

As for the impact on dragons in warfare...Harrenhal and the Field of Fire. If I'm Daernys and have control of all three dragons, those are the only words I'd need to utter to make lords kneel. If not. they're probably good as barbecued, unless they know how to fight a guerilla war ala Dorne but they'd most certainly forfeit their major holdings under threat of dragon fire. If Daernys also has control of the Dothraki, the Windblown, the Second Sons and the Unsullied, she'd pretty much be unstoppable militarily. It would be the greatest army in Westeros history, exceeding even Aegon the Conqueror. And calling her "Aegon the Conqueror with teats" wouldn't be so off the mark at all.

 

[Urzhail64]

Unsuilled by a mile. They've been bred from birth to be soldiers and far less subject to breaking than the Golden Company due to the soldier mentality being drilled in them. The Golden Company is a mercenary company. And mercenaries don't get to spend coin if they're dead which makes them susceptible to breaking if everything is going wrong. Now the Unsullied...they'd be in the "fanatic" category as far as morale goes.

 

[Mike Hazeleger]

Not like the nobles would have much choice. Dragons are the Ice and Fire equivalent of usable nukes: challenge at your own risk. But yeah the key part is Daenerys' ability to control her Dragons or even just Drogo. If they remain out of control she'd be in a bad spot. Also, who could "deal" with a dragon? In canon the only examples of Dragons being killed by anything other than old age or another Dragon was Dorne getting a lucky shot on Meraxes and the storming of the Dragonpit. Neither of which can really be turned into a strategy.

As for Golden Company vs Unsullied, definitely the later. The Golden company is good but not unbeatable. Remember that the Unsullied are (as far as we know) the only force that has ever beaten a Dothraki horde in open battle. No brainer on who would win in an open fight.

I believe it wasn't actually an open battle. As far as I undestood, they were defending a breach in the walls, basically forcing the Dothraki into a narrow corridor. So technically it was a siege where they beat the Dothraki.

 

[Soverrin]

Not like the nobles would have much choice. Dragons are the Ice and Fire equivalent of usable nukes: challenge at your own risk. But yeah the key part is Daenerys' ability to control her Dragons or even just Drogo. If they remain out of control she'd be in a bad spot. Also, who could "deal" with a dragon? In canon the only examples of Dragons being killed by anything other than old age or another Dragon was Dorne getting a lucky shot on Meraxes and the storming of the Dragonpit. Neither of which can really be turned into a strategy.

As for Golden Company vs Unsullied, definitely the later. The Golden company is good but not unbeatable. Remember that the Unsullied are (as far as we know) the only force that has ever beaten a Dothraki horde in open battle. No brainer on who would win in an open fight.

I choose the bitter steel beneath the gold. The unsullied are great guards, and battle of Qohor does show the dicipline of the unsullied but the dothraki are not tactical geniuses; outnumbering the enemy and attacking a phalanx in the front is a good idea, also the unsullied arent versatile.

what i find is the same city the unsullied defended and maybe still do, is the same city the company sacked.

Unsullied have discipline, and the golden company have experience and some.

"Discipline is like mother's milk to the men of the Golden Company."
"Our word is good as gold (before Aegon appeared)"
"Beneath the gold, the bitter steel"

EDIT: I wish Aegon marries Daenerys or vice versa in the mod, like an event that makes it happen if you are not controlling them, sometimes aegon wins but never marry. the dragon girl just sits in meereen poppin out babies for some noble and then the dragons either runaway or get killed. Maybe an event that lets you choose Blackfyre or targaryen as the house name or an event to get more dragons or to get dark sister.