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Tinto Talks #49 - 5th February 2025

Welcome to another Tinto Talks, the Happy Wednesday where we discuss details from our secret upcoming top secret game with the codename of Project Caesar.

This week we will talk about our disease system.

outbreak.png

This is the tooltip of an outbreak together with the spread...

We have 2 types of diseases, environmental, which does not spread through movement of trade nor movement of people, and those that spread. A disease does not just infect the pops in a location, but can also infect armies.

Each disease has many different attributes, all of which can be complex calculations, and this is a very flexible system entirely modeled through script.

  • A chance for it to spawn each month.
  • How often the disease processes, i.e. how fast it ticks.
  • How quickly it spreads to other pops.
  • How it spreads between location and pops.
  • How quickly it stagnates in a location or unit.
  • How many pops and/or soldiers die or become resistant, each tick.
  • How many pops and/or soldiers die each tick (of the above).
  • The mortality for characters.
  • How quickly resistances decay.
  • How much presence is needed before it spreads to adjacent locations.
  • If you want specific pop types affected…
  • And more…

When diseases are present in a location, the resistance to it builds up, making further outbreaks less effective. Pops, locations and sub units can have resistances. So if pops move around they can bring diseases they have with them that they themselves are immune to. Likewise, a unit carrying disease may spread it to any locations it travels through.

disease_in_location.png

There is a big Smallpox outbreak here in Saint-Marcellin, but the resistance is already nice.


So let's take a detailed look at the different diseases we have.


bubonic_plague.png
Bubonic Plague

With the default options, this will happen in 1346, start somewhere in Central Asia, and spread throughout the Old World.

It spreads relatively quickly and the mortality rate for pops is between 30% to 60%.

A great pestilence that sweeps through busy trade routes, sparing neither low nor high. Those infected suffer black swellings in the groin and armpits, terrible fever, and death. Some believe it is carried by the vermin that scurry in our streets and fields, spreading foul sickness from one poor soul to another.

great_pestilence.png
Great Pestilence


This will spawn in the New World whenever someone from the Old World colonizes a location, and spreads from there. It represents the collection of diseases that the European colonizers brought to the Americas. It can and will spawn at multiple places. It doesn’t impact pops from the Old World as they are immune to most of these.

This has a gigantic mortality effect, killing between 75% to 90% of all pops.

Terrible news reaches us from abroad. Misery and plague sweep the lands, and death runs with them, apparently brought by mysterious bearded foreigners. This plague is not something our elders have ever heard of, and no answers in our ancestors' memories could help us face the catastrophe if it reaches our settlements. Will our people perish, or will we somehow resist when this walking death reaches us?


malaria.png
Malaria


This is an environmental disease that is pretty much permanent in most Sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the local people have limited resistance to it, but any colonizers from abroad will die.

There will be regular outbreaks that can kill 10% to 20% of the pops that do not have resistance in a location.


The ancient bane of humankind, Malaria, is an infectious disease transmitted from person to person by the bite of an infected mosquito. This illness produces chills, headaches, sweating, and a very intense fever that repeats every three to four days.

typhus.png
Typhus


Outbreaks will appear in the areas of the old world where one of the three types of Typhus are endemic. It will also spawn in forest, woods or jungle locations, spreading from there.

It spreads relatively slowly, but the mortality is between 4% to 40%.

This deathly sickness creates on those stricken by it a great deal of fever, a big red rash that might extend over the entire body, and a confusion of the mind that might get worse, to the point of full-on delirium. Those poor souls that reach that point would develop gangrenous lesions and invariably die

influenza.png
Influenza


This will spawn during winter and spread in a relatively short period of time. It will not appear in the Americas until the Great Pestilence has ravaged the continent fully.

This kills off on average about 1 in 1000 people, so it is not the most lethal of diseases.

Known by the common folk as the Flu, it is a widely spread sickness with usually mild symptoms like a runny nose or a fever in healthy individuals, but that might be extremely dangerous for those that are too young or too old or already weakened by injury or another malady.

measles.png
Measles

This will spawn in most locations around the world, and it's far more likely to spread in towns or cities.It will not appear in the Americas until the Great Pestilence has ravaged the continent fully.

It is a bit more deadly than Influenza, but about 2 in 1000 people will die from it.

Measles, also known as morbili, rubeola, and red measles, is a plague that spreads extremely fast from person to person, causing fever, coughs, sneezes, and a great flat rash that eventually covers the entire body. It preys most eagerly on children, who are at great risk of death if they fall on its claws.

smallpox.png
Smallpox


This keeps spawning in most locations around the world, but not in arid or arctic climates. It will spread in a small region and is highly contagious. It's far more likely to spread in locations with a lot of trade.It will not appear in the Americas until the Great Pestilence has ravaged the continent fully.


The mortality is between 5% and 30%, so an outbreak where there is low resistance can be deadly.

Smallpox is a terrible disease that produces on the sad victim fever, vomits, and finally an enormous amount of liquid-filled blisters that cover their entire body. The outbreaks of this plague are very deathly and those that survive are commonly left blind for life.




There are ways to reduce the impact of disease in your country. First of all there are medical advances in most ages, and there are also buildings you can build.


First there is the Hospital that you can build in any town or city with at least 20 development. This is available at the start of the game for more advanced countries.


hospital.png


Then after the Scientific Revolution you can research the advance for Medical Schools and build them in your town and cities.

medical_school.png


Next week we will talk about how forming new countries will work…
 
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Did you ever try the old mobile-game "pandemic?" where like only Madagascar can survive..
It got a steam release under the name Plague Inc. Was pretty fun
 
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I don’t see anything to represent the numerous fecal-oral diseases either, such as dysentery and cholera, they should have the most presence in crowded urban areas with lacking public sanitation. These type of diseases could be a serious problem during wartime as well, especially during sieges, since the attacking army was forced to create a tent city’s that often lacked decent sanitation, while the defenders were crushed together in a compact city as refugees from the countryside brought any sickness they had with them. (A good example of this is the plague that struck Athens during the Peloponnesian War, which was likely Typhoid fever, not to be confused with the flea-related typhus)


Agreed. Though if implemented, these should have a differently weighted spread, being more along rivers and in high dev locations; and being managed by sewage tech more than medical buildings. Dysentery was particularly awful when dealing with armies and should slow them down and weaken them a lot. Dysentery is probably the best general term for these types of fecal-oral diseases, since Cholera really only got its start in the 19th century and Typhoid Fever was far less prevalent (when compared to Dysentery at least).

As far as death stats go, 4-22% is probably a good range since it would include both the potentially lower death rates of certain waves of Dysentery and the higher rates of Typhoid Fever.
 
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Do outbreaks of disease impact other factors than just mortality, for example demands for goods?
I'm thinking specifically of the huge increase in demand for spices during the black death and other outbreaks of plague as the proposed medicinal values of these goods were highly prized, but obviously households should also want medicaments for themselves and I'd imagine that beyond just the dead, the sick should also affect production rates in afflicted locations.

What affects transmission rates besides the rates assigned to the disease themselves?
For example starving pops should be at high risk of contracting illnesses.

Is this a complete list of diseases at this time?
If not, I hope Tuberculosis, Syphilis, Yellow Fever and Dysentery are added, as they're odd to have absent in this time-frame.
(Leprosy - despite the weight placed on it by religious and cultural beliefs - does not really have outbreaks, like these other diseases and is not all that communicable or deadly. Without mechanics for the stigma of the disease, I'd rather it stays excluded.)

Finally, as others have said, please expand the range of malaria to pre-modern ranges, rather than just Africa. You might add sleeping sickness (Trypanosoma brucei) and other tropical diseases such as Yellow Fever in addition to malaria if the goal is solely to make African colonization especially difficult in this period. I don't understand why you'd want to abstract some parts of malaria's range while showing others. Having geographical weighting of some sort to represent how prevalent the disease is in different regions, and the addition of additional tropical diseases should be used to represent the particular difficulties of malaria's effects in Africa, rather than just showing it as being in Africa - which is misleading, historically inaccurate and just plain boring.
 
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How do diseases interact with wars or armies? For example, do cities under siege become more affected by diseases, or something similar? And does this interact with or cause devastation in affected locations?
 
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We have 2 types of diseases, environmental, which does not spread through movement of trade nor movement of people, and those that spread. A disease does not just infect the pops in a location, but can also infect armies.
View attachment 1250958Malaria

This is an environmental disease that is pretty much permanent in most Sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the local people have limited resistance to it, but any colonizers from abroad will die.

There will be regular outbreaks that can kill 10% to 20% of the pops that do not have resistance in a location.

-----------------------
View attachment 1250957Typhus

Outbreaks will appear in the areas of the old world where one of the three types of Typhus are endemic. It will also spawn in forest, woods or jungle locations, spreading from there.

It spreads relatively slowly, but the mortality is between 4% to 40%.
So am I interpreting it correctly that in the current scope Malaria is limited to Africa and will not spread beyond it?
Malaria traveled along with the slave trade, and is unfortunately also one of the reasons why slaves became a major labor force in Southern USA and Brazil (Africans had better genetic resilience towards malaria than Europeans and simply didn't die of the disease in the regions where malaria spread). Charles C. Mann's 1493 explains this very well.

Malaria should perhaps behave somewhat similarly to your description of Typhus: allow for endemism in (Sub)tropical locations in/after the age of discovery, in wetlands/river-adjacent locations (following the "migration pattern" *cough* of African slaves), with some sporadic outbreaks in wetlands of colder climates such as oceanic-continental.

Perhaps make a destinction between Holo- and Hyper-endemic malaria ( "severe malaria" of Vic3) vs meso- and hypo-endemic ("Malaria")?


 
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Welcome to another Tinto Talks, the Happy Wednesday where we discuss details from our secret upcoming top secret game with the codename of Project Caesar.

This week we will talk about our disease system.

View attachment 1250950
This is the tooltip of an outbreak together with the spread...

We have 2 types of diseases, environmental, which does not spread through movement of trade nor movement of people, and those that spread. A disease does not just infect the pops in a location, but can also infect armies.

Each disease has many different attributes, all of which can be complex calculations, and this is a very flexible system entirely modeled through script.

  • A chance for it to spawn each month.
  • How often the disease processes, i.e. how fast it ticks.
  • How quickly it spreads to other pops.
  • How it spreads between location and pops.
  • How quickly it stagnates in a location or unit.
  • How many pops and/or soldiers die or become resistant, each tick.
  • How many pops and/or soldiers die each tick (of the above).
  • The mortality for characters.
  • How quickly resistances decay.
  • How much presence is needed before it spreads to adjacent locations.
  • If you want specific pop types affected…
  • And more…

When diseases are present in a location, the resistance to it builds up, making further outbreaks less effective. Pops, locations and sub units can have resistances. So if pops move around they can bring diseases they have with them that they themselves are immune to. Likewise, a unit carrying disease may spread it to any locations it travels through.

View attachment 1250951
There is a big Smallpox outbreak here in Saint-Marcellin, but the resistance is already nice.


So let's take a detailed look at the different diseases we have.


View attachment 1250961Bubonic Plague
With the default options, this will happen in 1346, start somewhere in Central Asia, and spread throughout the Old World.

It spreads relatively quickly and the mortality rate for pops is between 30% to 60%.

A great pestilence that sweeps through busy trade routes, sparing neither low nor high. Those infected suffer black swellings in the groin and armpits, terrible fever, and death. Some believe it is carried by the vermin that scurry in our streets and fields, spreading foul sickness from one poor soul to another.

View attachment 1250959Great Pestilence

This will spawn in the New World whenever someone from the Old World colonizes a location, and spreads from there. It represents the collection of diseases that the European colonizers brought to the Americas. It can and will spawn at multiple places. It doesn’t impact pops from the Old World as they are immune to most of these.

This has a gigantic mortality effect, killing between 75% to 90% of all pops.

Terrible news reaches us from abroad. Misery and plague sweep the lands, and death runs with them, apparently brought by mysterious bearded foreigners. This plague is not something our elders have ever heard of, and no answers in our ancestors' memories could help us face the catastrophe if it reaches our settlements. Will our people perish, or will we somehow resist when this walking death reaches us?


View attachment 1250958Malaria

This is an environmental disease that is pretty much permanent in most Sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the local people have limited resistance to it, but any colonizers from abroad will die.

There will be regular outbreaks that can kill 10% to 20% of the pops that do not have resistance in a location.


The ancient bane of humankind, Malaria, is an infectious disease transmitted from person to person by the bite of an infected mosquito. This illness produces chills, headaches, sweating, and a very intense fever that repeats every three to four days.

View attachment 1250957Typhus

Outbreaks will appear in the areas of the old world where one of the three types of Typhus are endemic. It will also spawn in forest, woods or jungle locations, spreading from there.

It spreads relatively slowly, but the mortality is between 4% to 40%.

This deathly sickness creates on those stricken by it a great deal of fever, a big red rash that might extend over the entire body, and a confusion of the mind that might get worse, to the point of full-on delirium. Those poor souls that reach that point would develop gangrenous lesions and invariably die

View attachment 1250956Influenza

This will spawn during winter and spread in a relatively short period of time. It will not appear in the Americas until the Great Pestilence has ravaged the continent fully.

This kills off on average about 1 in 1000 people, so it is not the most lethal of diseases.

Known by the common folk as the Flu, it is a widely spread sickness with usually mild symptoms like a runny nose or a fever in healthy individuals, but that might be extremely dangerous for those that are too young or too old or already weakened by injury or another malady.

View attachment 1250955Measles
This will spawn in most locations around the world, and it's far more likely to spread in towns or cities.It will not appear in the Americas until the Great Pestilence has ravaged the continent fully.

It is a bit more deadly than Influenza, but about 2 in 1000 people will die from it.

Measles, also known as morbili, rubeola, and red measles, is a plague that spreads extremely fast from person to person, causing fever, coughs, sneezes, and a great flat rash that eventually covers the entire body. It preys most eagerly on children, who are at great risk of death if they fall on its claws.

View attachment 1250954Smallpox

This keeps spawning in most locations around the world, but not in arid or arctic climates. It will spread in a small region and is highly contagious. It's far more likely to spread in locations with a lot of trade.It will not appear in the Americas until the Great Pestilence has ravaged the continent fully.


The mortality is between 5% and 30%, so an outbreak where there is low resistance can be deadly.

Smallpox is a terrible disease that produces on the sad victim fever, vomits, and finally an enormous amount of liquid-filled blisters that cover their entire body. The outbreaks of this plague are very deathly and those that survive are commonly left blind for life.




There are ways to reduce the impact of disease in your country. First of all there are medical advances in most ages, and there are also buildings you can build.


First there is the Hospital that you can build in any town or city with at least 20 development. This is available at the start of the game for more advanced countries.


View attachment 1250953

Then after the Scientific Revolution you can research the advance for Medical Schools and build them in your town and cities.

View attachment 1250952

Next week we will talk about how forming new countries will work…
Is it honey or beeswax? or both?
 
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You always see your current population at the top of the screen so.
But that UI is specifically about the most affected countries-- I don't want to have to go and check each of their populations & pull up my calculator, come back to this screen to check the numbers for the next country, etc, each time I want to see how serious an outbreak is.
 
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These new icons are so much better than CK's

Plague.png
malaria.png


This diary is simply more proof that Project Caesar will be the ultimate GSG

Ironically we used the ck3 rat icon as placeholder since 2020 :p
 
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  • The mortality for characters.
I assume this means that each character has a chance of contracting the disease based on their pop type and present location? Generals bringing foreign diseases to court, etc?
In this case, a suggestion - if this has a history/log like eu4, record any ruler deaths in an outbreak as something like "Emperor Friedrich died during the great plague outbreak of 1388", as that tends to be how ruler deaths are often recorded. I'd even extend that to a ruler falling in battle, which should be recorded as well. I always found that part of EU4 fun to go through after a run, but it was often ruined by focusing on unimportant information, and not being dynamic enough to read like an authentic history of my nation.
 
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Wait so the Malaria death rate for Colonizers (who have no resistance) will be 10-20%? Seems a bit low, no? After all, this was the major deterring factor in the colonization attempts of Africa for much of the colonial history. I'd put the number somewhere between 30-40% to be honest. This is considering that even with the earliest forms of quinine treatments, the mortality rate for Malaria patients was around 17%.

EDIT: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10021769/ This paper indicates the mortality rate for white European troops in Sierra Leone was as high as 500 per 1000 men in... the 1800s. Yeah the death rate should be higher.

10-20 at every outbreak :p
 
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Wait so the Malaria death rate for Colonizers (who have no resistance) will be 10-20%? Seems a bit low, no? After all, this was the major deterring factor in the colonization attempts of Africa for much of the colonial history. I'd put the number somewhere between 30-40% to be honest. This is considering that even with the earliest forms of quinine treatments, the mortality rate for Malaria patients was around 17%.

EDIT: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10021769/ This paper indicates the mortality rate for white European troops in Sierra Leone was as high as 500 per 1000 men in... the 1800s. Yeah the death rate should be higher.
The description says Malaria pops up frequently. If that means every couple years that 10 to 20% will add up quickly!
 
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That looks awful to endure as a country but great to play around as a player. You mention it's really flexible and uses scripts so I assume new diseases can be modded in. Is it possible to have diseases with (only) positive modifiers and/or mechanics ? Not that it would make a lot of sense in a realistic setting, but something like increased productivity for pops (or higher stats for important characters) if they are infected ?

you can make diseases that are insanely unique yes.
 
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I see that there is a wide range in the mortality rates. I hope the rng is limited with this mechanic, since the impact is severe. It would be really frustrating if your country is set back by a lot because of bad rng while your neighboring rival comes out of it pretty strong, especially in multiplayer.
 
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Does the bubonic plague need additional mechanics to resolve itself? Or are the disease spread attributes that you have implemented enough for it to gradually vanish as a large scale problem the same way it did historically? This must be awfully hard to tune, given the large set of parameters.

all diseases, unless otherwise scripted, eventually disappears.
 
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In the map that you shared, is the large blacked-out region where that nation's visibility ends? Why is it black, rather than the parchment color that is used for terra incognita elsewhere?

yes for this mapmode
 
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Will the fact that various societies developed different immunization techniques (variolation, inoculation, and vaccination) at different times throughout the game’s timeframe?
 
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