Werewolf Lite CLXXX: The Group of Seventeen (Part II)

[marty99]

I thought "pack possibilities" was dismissed like...two, almost three years ago. Well, that was before your time here, but there was a phase in which lots of people used that as the focus of their analysis. Didn't work. Too easy to manipulate with throwaway votes and revotes. Besides, there's two sides to every argument: if you hunt someone you voted, you can claim "a wolf wouldn't have done that". Apparently, it would have worked on you.

Voting on someone who gets hunted means bupkis, unless that person was almost lynched with your vote still on them. That's the hardest thing to fake, and thus the most telling bit of bad packmate likeliness. But Sid didn't even come close. You and snoop aren't cleared.

Yeah, I've read about it in earlier Lites
It may be easy to manipulate, but we've got nothing better until we know a wolf
Anyway, if you put the effort in, it is easily possible to differentiate between throwaway votes and votes that genuinely put a player in danger of lynching, you just have to look at the time and the vote-count at the time of the vote

Also, with the pack in such a strong position it's probable they won't vote packmates at all, not now with the seer dead, they'll be looking to cruise to a Stalingrad by voting along with goodies on the most suspicious villager, instead of putting their packmates in potential danger, even if the vote seemed a harmless throwaway at the time

Tornadoli was also very quiet over in the big game, it's likely he has RL issues, although that doesn't exclude him from being a wolf.

Edit: And yeah, he was always a very, very obvious wolf, he's been getting better recently though.....

Are you trying to make excuses for your packmate? Sounds like you're trying to justify his lack of activity in this game.

Walrus was stating a fact, Tornadoli has indeed been quiet in the past few games, just because what he said refutes your theory doesn't make him a wolf, not that I'm saying he isn't one, but his quietness isn't evidence for it IMO
Why are you being so combative anyway? You've been acting stranger than anyone this game.

 

[walrus]

Are you trying to make excuses for your packmate? Sounds like you're trying to justify his lack of activity in this game.

I just don't want us chasing after someone who can't defend themselves - someone trying to steer us towards someone like that gives the wolves a very good opening to pile on a villager.......

 

[EUROO7]

...

What are you doing up so late?

 

[Lemeard]

What are you doing up so late?

Playing Werewolf

 

[marty99]

What are you doing up so late?

I lay in bed for several hours, before giving up my fruitless task of sleeping

Anyway, in case I collapse tomorrow from exhaustion, I'll put in a placeholder vote for
(Vote) Lord Strange
As Lemeard so wisely said, ''let's run him up and see what happens''

I probably will change though, in case the village needs a little dose of awesome before the deadline

 

[Ciryandor]

@ marty

The wolves haven't had the temerity to hunt me as a villager even if I wanted out from this game. I'd have said I was the seer today had Sid not been hunted... I'm trying this kind of play just because I want to broaden my arsenal of methods to playing WW, doing more EURO/Lemeard type stuff.

@ walrus
The same argument applies to a wolf however, if they can't defend themselves, their packmates could try to subtly say that he just isn't there.

 

[walrus]

@ walrus
The same argument applies to a wolf however, if they can't defend themselves, their packmates could try to subtly say that he just isn't there.

Yes, but I am not a wolf so this does not apply to me.

 

[jonti-h]

I thought "pack possibilities" was dismissed like...two, almost three years ago. Well, that was before your time here, but there was a phase in which lots of people used that as the focus of their analysis. Didn't work. Too easy to manipulate with throwaway votes and revotes. Besides, there's two sides to every argument: if you hunt someone you voted, you can claim "a wolf wouldn't have done that". Apparently, it would have worked on you.

Used it, mastered it, broke it.

It *did* work - but only once or twice. The trouble with analysis is that if you don't publish your rationale, people don't believe you. As soon as people know how it's done they know how to screw with it.

Voting on someone who gets hunted means bupkis, unless that person was almost lynched with your vote still on them. That's the hardest thing to fake, and thus the most telling bit of bad packmate likeliness. But Sid didn't even come close. You and snoop aren't cleared.

And with backup orders, it means even less.

I just don't want us chasing after someone who can't defend themselves - someone trying to steer us towards someone like that gives the wolves a very good opening to pile on a villager.......

That's why we need a couple of good options, not just Torn.

Yes, but I am not a wolf so this does not apply to me.

O rly.

 

[Ciryandor]

GIEF COUNT, and jonti, I want a different variation, PLEASE?

 

[randakar]

(xkcd)

 

[jonti-h]

GIEF COUNT, and jonti, I want a different variation, PLEASE?

I would, but Randy got there first.

 

[randakar]

i would, but randy got there first.

 

[Ciryandor]

(xkcd)

I was so expecting this, considering that that comment had been inspired by seeing that comic.

 

[Lord Strange]

Well, I am not a wolf, and secondly my inactivity has been due to my term finishing. It is now finished.

 

[jonti-h]

Well, I am not a wolf, and secondly my inactivity has been due to my term finishing. It is now finished.

I can't vote for you anyway, you're RPing David Cameron.

 

[Rysz]

I planned on doing some thorough analysis tonight at home (no time at work to do that, only short checks upon the thread), but I remembered Kaetje will be having her birthdayparty this evening....

I will try to keep checks on the thread, and perhaps at home on time for some late analysis?

 

[randakar]

I was so expecting this, considering that that comment had been inspired by seeing that comic.

I saw that strip and went "I gotta post this on a werewolf thread somewhere!". Then I saw your comment

I planned on doing some thorough analysis tonight at home (no time at work to do that, only short checks upon the thread), but I remembered Kaetje will be having her birthdayparty this evening....

Yep. So she is. We have brownies. And lynn-cuddles. You better show up!

P.S. if any dutch werewolfie wants to drop by unexpectedly tonight you're welcome ;-) I'm sure we can find some suitably interesting games for you to play ..

 

[Rysz]

I saw that strip and went "I gotta post this on a werewolf thread somewhere!". Then I saw your comment





Yep. So she is. We have brownies. And lynn-cuddles. You better show up!

P.S. if any dutch werewolfie wants to drop by unexpectedly tonight you're welcome ;-) I'm sure we can find some suitably interesting games for you to play ..

Including werewolf (Micro)
Also, I'll be there in an hour

 

[jonti-h]

Yep. So she is. We have brownies. And lynn-cuddles. You better show up!

P.S. if any dutch werewolfie wants to drop by unexpectedly tonight you're welcome ;-) I'm sure we can find some suitably interesting games for you to play ..

Sounds incredibly KINKEH!

 

[Lemeard]

Gief count